Solar-Electric Power: Road to a Clean, Secure Energy Future

11/29/00 – 12/01/00 NSF Workshop on Sustainable Energy Technologies

Solar-Electric Power:Road to a Clean, Secure Energy

FutureJames Gee1 and Roland Hulstrom2

1Sandia National Laboratories2National Renewable Energy Laboratory

1Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the U. S. Department of Energy under contract DE-ACO4-94AL85000.2NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy operated by Midwest Research Institute, Battelle, and Bechtel, Contract # DE-AC36-99GO10337.


Outline

1. Concentrating Solar Power2. Roadmap of the U.S. Photovoltaic Industry

Technology and Industry RoadmapsVision, Strategies, GoalsMarket and Technical Barriers


Solar Two:A dispatchablesolar technology.


Advanced DishDevelopment:10-kW system with improved optics, structure,control system, sterlingengine, and receiver.Systems runs autono-mously, and future improvements will allow system to run off grid and be hybridized.


SEGS

354 MW25% natural gasDispatchableTechnology around $0.12/kWh.


What does a roadmap provide?

• Establish a Vision for the industry.• Establish a strategic plan towards realizing the Vision.• Instill confidence in decision makers, investors, and

customers. • Identify and guide opportunities for shared

development.• Clarify barriers and coordinate response within the

community.


Roadmap Process

VISION

Strategizing

Roadmap

Vision to establish destination.

Workshop(s) to identify barriers, needs, and strategic actions.

Roadmap organizes and synthesizesworkshop information into coherentpresentation.


VISIONU.S. Photovoltaic Industry

“… to provide the electrical energyconsumer competitive and environmentally friendly energy products and services from a thrivingUnited States-based solar-electricpower industry.”


Strategies

• Maintain U.S. PV industry’s worldwide technological leadership.

• Achieve economic competitiveness with conventional technologies.

• Maintain a sustained market and PV production growth.

• Make the PV industry profitable and attractive to investors.


Target and Goals

Target: For the U.S. photovoltaic industry to provide up to 15% (about 3000 MW) of new U.S. electricity generation capacity expected to be required in 2020. The U.S. cumulative PV shipments will be about 30 GW at this time.

Goals:• A growth rate of 25% in PV production capacity is required to

meet the roadmap targets for U.S. and international markets.• PV system costs to the end user of $3.00/Wac and $1.50/Wac by

2010 and 2020, respectively. Total manufacturing costs will be about 60% of the system cost.



Reduction in Module Price vs Cumulative Shipments1980 thru 1999 History(total world)

1

10

100

10 100 1000 10000Cumulative Worldwide Shipments MWp

$[19

99]/W

p

28.5% reduction in price forevery doubling of cumulative shipments

Source of Shipments & Current Year Price Data: Paul Maycock


Projected Installed PV System Price vs Cumulative Shipments

$1.50

$7.00

1.00

10.00

100 1,000 10,000 100,000Cumulative Shipments MWp

Syst

em P

rice

$/W

p 22% Price Decrease PerDoubling of CumulativeShipments

Estimates U.S. Industry's CumulativeShipments Prior to 2000 to be

400 MWp, then Roadmap25% Annual Growth Curve

2020 Target

2000

2010 Target


PVMaT History and Projections for "Average" Module Manufacturing Costs

1.00

10.00

10.00 100.00 1000.00Total Manufacturing Capacity (MWp)

Mod

ule

Man

ufac

turin

g C

osts

$/W

p[$1

999]

1999

Actual

Projected:By PVMaTIndustry Participants.

Independent of the20% "model"

2005

1992

20% reduction in costsfor every doubling of capacity


Comparison of Forecasts of Total World PV Module Shipments

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Year

GW

p A

nnua

l Sh

ipm

ents

25% Growth Rate

15% Growth Rate

Maycock BAU

Strategies Unlimited BAU

Maycock Accelerated

Strategies Unlimited Accelerated

25%

15%


Market Barriers and Solutions• Value: Full value of solar electricity as distributed, clean, renewable energy

must be described and captured for policy makers, investment and financial communities, and consumers.

• Products: Products must be easier to use.– Not a “techie” project – more like a household appliance– Reliability comparable to (or much better than!) other electricity options– Standards and codes

• Policies: Public policies must reflect value and importance of solar electricity– National interconnection standards– National net metering legislation– Electricity restructuring should promote renewable energy introduction– Financial incentives to stimulate market expansion in early stage


Technical Barriers and Solutions

• Infrastructure: Greater cooperation between material and equipment vendors, PV module manufacturers, and system component manufacturers.

• Technical: – Higher performance– Higher throughput – Module materials


Conclusion

• Solar-Electric Power has very attractive features that make it a natural component of a sustainable energy future for the U.S. and the world.

• The U.S. PV Industry is completing development of a roadmap that will delineate a path towards achieving a prominent role in energy generation. Anticipated completion of the roadmap is early 2001.


Acknowledgements• PV Industry Roadmap has been developed by over

40 specialists from across the PV community, with additional comments from across the community.

• NCPV Advisory Board has served as the Executive Committee for the roadmap.

• NCPV Management Team has helped guide the NCPV facilitation role in the generation of the roadmap.

• CSP viewgraphs provided by Craig Tyner (SNL).

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