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Southeast Michigan Council of Governments
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Southeast Michigan Council of Governments
Total PopulationSoutheast Michigan, 2000-2040
Age 65+
Age 55 to 64
Age 25 to 54
Age 18 to 24
Age 0 to 17
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
22% 20% 17% 17% 17%
13%14% 13% 12% 12%
45%41%
37% 36% 37%
8%12%
15%12% 11%
12%13%
18% 23% 24%
2040 Forecast
4,833,368 4,742,083
The Age WavePopulation by age, 2010-2040
0-4
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25
-29
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-69
70
-74
75
-79
80
-84
85
-89
90
-94
95
-99
10
0+
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2010 2020 2040
2040 Forecast
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Age 65 to 74
52%
44%
37%
33%
Age 75 to 84
20%
Age 85+
15%
Oldest of Population Growing Fastest
Population 65 years and older, 2010-2040
2040 Forecast
13%
24%
17.6%
22.5%
Senior Growth Will Be Rapid in Urban, Suburban Communities Alike
Population 65 and older, 2010, 2020, 2040
2010 2020
Less than 10%
10% to 14.9%
15% to 19.9%
20% to 24.9%
25% or more
2040 Forecast
2040
Areas with Fastest Growth Differ from Areas with Greatest Shares
Less than 10%
10% to 14.9%
15% to 19.9%
20% to 24.9%
25% or more
Percent 65+ in 2010
Change in 65+ population, 2010-2040
Less than 25%
25% to 49.9%
50% to 99.9%
100% or more
Region percent 13.0 Region change 85%
2040 Forecast
Labor Force Participation Rates RisingSoutheast Michigan, 1990-2040
2040 Forecast
Ages 65-69
Ages 70-74
Ages 75+
Ages 62-64
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
The Employment GapJobs and population, 2010-2040
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000Total jobs
Population aged 22 to 62
Population 62+
2040 Forecast
2,484,000
2,788,000
2,317,000
2,608,000
1,278,000
761,000
More Educated than their Counterparts in Past
Bachelor’s or higher degree by age, 2000, 2010
Total 25-34 35-44 45-64 65+0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
23%
30%
26% 26%
13%
26%
32%34%
29%
20%
2000 2010
2040 Forecast
More in Higher Paying Occupations than in Past
Occupations for 60 and older, 2000, 2009
admin
_support
business
constructio
n
education
exec_adm_m
an...
healthcare
other_
servic
es
profe
ssional
sales
servic
es
skilledtra
de0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%2000 2009
2040 Forecast
Summary
• Dramatic increase in senior population– 65+ population increases by 85% by 2040– By 2015 – 1 in 5 will be 60 or older– By 2040 – 1 in 4 will be 65 or older
• Areas experiencing fastest growth differ from those with largest concentration
• Most growth will take place in suburbs
0 - 4
15 - 19
30 - 34
45 - 49
60 - 64
75 - 79
0 100,000200,000300,000400,000
2040
2040 Forecast
Summary
Challenges• Different from earlier generations of seniors
– demands for new types of housing and cultural amenities
• Larger inner ring communities with higher proportion of older individuals
• Access to suburban ‘aging in place’ seniors
0 - 415 - 1930 - 3445 - 4960 - 6475 - 79
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
2040
Summary
Opportunities• Only growing part of the population
• Potentially large and growing part of the labor force
• Resource – educated and skilled pool of individuals
• Engaged in their community
0 - 415 - 1930 - 3445 - 4960 - 6475 - 79
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
2040
2040 Forecast
www.SEMCOG.org
SEMCOG’s Information Center
Stephanie J. Taylor
313-324-3330
Southeast Michigan Council of Governments
