www.cotzias.gr – visit our constantly updated website APRIL 2010 Ship sale volume: Apr-10 Mar-10 109 194 last month 71 155 last month 38 39 last month Scrap volume: 126 125 last month $780/ldt INDIA (STAINLESS) Newbuilding Ships Prices (30/4/2010) (in mil USD) Dry Cargo CAPE 2/1/2009 PMX 2/1/2009 HMAX 2/1/2009 NEWBUILDING $72.0 $50.0 $43.0 $35.0 $34.5 $27.0 Tanker Ships VLCC 2/1/2009 SUZ 2/1/2009 AFR 2/1/2009 NEWBUILDING $97.0 $114.0 $68.0 $91.0 $49.0 $74.0 PAN 2/1/2009 PROD 2/1/2009 $42.0 $60.0 $33.0 $51.0 Average Dry cargo T/C Earnings (worldwide routes): Apr-10 Mar-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 $35,281 $33,881 $30,036 $38,877 $30,003 $30,833 $21,786 $29,813 $31,330 $31,816 $26,308 $29,976 $29,071 $31,358 $27,558 $28,200 $29,022 $29,010 $23,592 $24,633 $21,421 $20,896 $18,889 $16,366 $18,073 $19,896 $16,175 $16,339 Scrap Prices for APRIL 2010 CHINA HIGH $430 AVERAGE $401 APR 2010 AVERAGE $440 INDIA HIGH $780 AVERAGE $460 MAR 2010 AVERAGE $370 BANGLADESH HIGH $541 AVERAGE $447 FEB 2010 AVERAGE $346 PAKISTAN HIGH $512 AVERAGE $464 JAN 2010 AVERAGE $354 TURKEY HIGH $270 AVERAGE $242 DEC 2009 AVERAGE $308 BALTIC INDICES % since 30-Apr-10 change since LAST MONTH 31-Mar-10 26-Feb-10 29-Jan-10 3354 11.87% 2998 2738 2848 3936 14.92% 3425 3174 3494 3900 6.15% 3674 3399 3420 2715 11.68% 2431 2288 2271 1356 -1.38% 1375 1153 1163 733 3.53% 708 762 885 996 3.32% 964 897 1077 COMMENTS: We keep talking about China all the time, and it seems that yes we have all the reasons to associate China's well being with our Shipping industry good days. And that is the basis of the main fundamentals overlining the iron/ore and coal market that drives the capes which in turn affect by 40% the BDI which again passes on more dynamics into the overall Dry bulk market. 1.34billion people are the population of China. That is a solid market on its own. Consumption of crude oil per capita per annum in China is 2 barels per person per year. This is still low. Compare that with Europe where the equivalent is 10.6 barels per capita/annum while USA's figure is 25 barels per capital/annum. In India only 1 barel of crude oil is used by every individual of the 1.21billion population every year. You can evidently see that if China achieves the estimates that claim to increase the figure to 2.3 barels per annum for 2010 and you multiply this increase by its total population we talk about a hefty amount of extra demand that will flood positively into the tanker and oil market. This may well be followed by India as we expect the country's projected GDP growth of 8.77% for 2010 to create another emerging economy that will pump more steam into world seaborne trade. APRIL 2010 GENERAL SCRAP PRICE AVERAGE Highest Scrap Price paid this month: S&P MONTHLY REPORT Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Wet cargo Ships sold this month: Ships scrapped this month: Baltic Panamax Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index According to IMF, India, on the back of strong domestic demand and robust business confidence, the Indian economy is projected to grow at 8.75 per cent in 2010 and 8.5 per cent in 2011. According to the World Economic Outlook report (2010) by the nowadays infamous in Greece, IMF, the Indian growth story will be supported by a resurgence in Domestic demand that will strengthen as the labour market improves, and investment is expected to be boosted by strong profitability, rising business confidence and favourable financing conditions. It is evident that strong domestic demand in the economies of India and China is expected to have positive spillovers for other Asian economies, particularly exporters of commodities and capital goods. The overall growth of the Asian economy is expected to expand by 4.5 per cent in 2010 and 5 per cent in 2011. The projected growth rates will be a significantly robust compared to a slow growth of 0.25 per cent in 2009 primarily due to adverse global economic conditions. Capes >134,000 dwt: Baltic Dry Index Handies 40,000 – 30,000 dwt: Small Bulkers 30,000 – 12,000 dwt: Executive Summary Dry cargo Ships sold this month: Total number of Ships sold this month: Baltic Supramax Index Baltic Handymax Index Baltic Cape Index Small Capes 132,000 – 90,000 dwt: Panamax 89,000 – 59,000 dwt: Supramax 59,000 – 48,000 dwt: Handymax 48,000 – 40,000 dwt: N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CO. LTD. 7-9 AKTI MIAOULI - 185 35 PIRAEUS TEL:+30 210 4222660/5 FAX:+30 210 4222678/9 PAGE 1 of 19 [email protected], [email protected]
Transcript
www.cotzias.gr – visit our constantly updated website APRIL 2010
Ship sale volume: Apr-10 Mar-10109 194 last month
71 155 last month
38 39 last month
Scrap volume:
126 125 last month
$780/ldt INDIA (STAINLESS)
Newbuilding Ships Prices (30/4/2010) (in mil USD)Dry Cargo CAPE 2/1/2009 PMX 2/1/2009 HMAX 2/1/2009
COMMENTS:We keep talking about China all the time, and it seems that yes we have all the reasons to associate China's well being with our Shipping industry good days. And that is the basis of
the main fundamentals overlining the iron/ore and coal market that drives the capes which in turn affect by 40% the BDI which again passes on more dynamics into the overall Dry
bulk market. 1.34billion people are the population of China. That is a solid market on its own. Consumption of crude oil per capita per annum in China is 2 barels per person per
year. This is still low. Compare that with Europe where the equivalent is 10.6 barels per capita/annum while USA's figure is 25 barels per capital/annum. In India only 1 barel of
crude oil is used by every individual of the 1.21billion population every year.
You can evidently see that if China achieves the estimates that claim to increase the figure to 2.3 barels per annum for 2010 and you multiply this increase by its total population
we talk about a hefty amount of extra demand that will flood positively into the tanker and oil market. This may well be followed by India as we expect the country's projected GDP
growth of 8.77% for 2010 to create another emerging economy that will pump more steam into world seaborne trade.
APRIL 2010
GENERAL SCRAP PRICE AVERAGE
Highest Scrap Price paid this month:
S&P MONTHLY REPORT
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index
Wet cargo Ships sold this month:
Ships scrapped this month:
Baltic Panamax Index
Baltic Clean Tanker Index
According to IMF, India, on the back of strong domestic demand and robust business confidence, the Indian economy is projected to grow at 8.75 per cent in 2010 and 8.5 per cent
in 2011. According to the World Economic Outlook report (2010) by the nowadays infamous in Greece, IMF, the Indian growth story will be supported by a resurgence in Domestic
demand that will strengthen as the labour market improves, and investment is expected to be boosted by strong profitability, rising business confidence and favourable financing
conditions. It is evident that strong domestic demand in the economies of India and China is expected to have positive spillovers for other Asian economies, particularly exporters
of commodities and capital goods. The overall growth of the Asian economy is expected to expand by 4.5 per cent in 2010 and 5 per cent in 2011. The projected growth rates will
be a significantly robust compared to a slow growth of 0.25 per cent in 2009 primarily due to adverse global economic conditions.
USA 16 4.07% $1,128 15.72% 343,114 1.85% TOTAL 393 100.00%
NORWAY 12 3.05% $326 4.54% 589,250 3.18%
GERMANY 12 3.05% $95 1.33% 353,425 1.91%
INDIA 8 2.04% $208 2.89% 504,541 2.73%
INDONESIA 8 2.04% $67 0.93% 237,475 1.28%
KOREA 7 1.78% $157 2.18% 318,616 1.72%
VIETNAM 7 1.78% $61 0.85% 148,752 0.80%
ISRAEL 5 1.27% $95 1.32% 410,359 2.22%
MALAYSIA 4 1.02% $48 0.67% 53,716 0.29%
RUSSIA 4 1.02% $7 0.10% 37,911 0.20%
JAPAN 4 1.02% $24 0.33% 249,676 1.35%
UNDISCL 65 16.54% $839 11.70% 2,199,737 11.88%
ALLOTHER 44 11.20% $616 8.59% 1,632,332 8.82%
TOTAL 393 100.00% $7,174 100.00% 18,509,824 100.00%
2010 BC SD CONT MPP TWEEN REEFER PASS RORO OTHER TOTAL
JANUARY 61 0 15 3 0 1 0 5 1 86
FEBRUARY 58 0 3 9 0 0 0 4 7 81
MARCH 83 0 35 14 0 3 0 4 16 155
APRIL 47 0 12 6 1 0 0 5 0 71
MAY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JUNE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JULY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AUGUST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SEPTEMBER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OCTOBER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
NOVEMBER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DECEMBER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 249 0 65 32 1 4 0 18 24 393
Back to normal levels of activity. The market hotting up we saw in March 2010 cooled off. April had 72 deals only,
lower than Jan and Feb levels. The reason why we had a slowdown in secondhand sales? Higher secondhand ship-prices which have increased by about 5% over past month
seem to have halted momentarily the dry bulk buying appetite. Panamax vessels sold this month were reported
15% higher than similar deals in Jan 2010. What is notable is that some more Container vessels have come into action reactivated and recommisioned after being laid up for more
than a year. We have seen 65 container vessels sold during this year. Out of these 65 container vessels sold 50
were sold over the past two months. Prices of container vessels are firming up as the world economy and word
trade shows some positive signs of demand for end products.
SELLERS STATS 2010
DRY CARGO UNITS SOLD - BREAKDOWN PER MONTH 2010
BUYERS - Greece and China are on a rat race, with the score this month to be China-Greece 18-22…!!! Chinese
buyers still topping the tables with 102 units (84 last) acquired during the 1st 4 months of 2010. Greeks have acquired 74 units (54 last). Turkish buyers 3rd with 21
units. In terms of capital outlay Greeks have outperformed Chinese with 1.7billion spent vs 1.6 by the Chinese new
owners. In terms of dwt Chinese have 7million tonnes vs 3.2that the Greeks have added to the Hellenic controlled fleet.
This is normal and expected as the average age of all vessels aquired by Greeks is 10.8 years while Chinese
average is 16.5 years. Average dwt acquired by Chinese is 69,400dwt while the Greek average is 56,800dwt. This
clearly shows that Chinese go for bigger and older in age, while Greeks choose the younger and smaller sized units.
MONTHLY UNIT SALE ACTIVITY
2010 DRY CARGO STATISTICS - BUYERS
SELLERS - The sellers stats have changed this month.Greeks have sold more and have increased the "spread"between Greece-China…! Greeks have sold 62 units (47last) with China having disposed 51 units (45 last). In 3rd
place of the sellers list is Germany with 37 while Japaneseare 4th with 36 units.
NORWAY 11 $438 12.30% 1,367,022 11.49% ALL OTHER 8 4.71%
INDONESIA 11 $159 4.48% 581,957 4.89% UNDISCL 1 0.59%
CHINA 9 $122 3.43% 878,846 7.39% TOTAL 170 100.00%
DENMARK 6 $144 4.05% 238,766 2.01%
SINGAPORE 6 $103 2.89% 590,950 4.97%
INDIA 5 $54 1.52% 204,260 1.72%
UK 4 $20 0.56% 15,370 0.13%
CHILE 4 $49 1.38% 227,971 1.92%
MONACO 4 $97 2.73% 157,619 1.32%
NIGERIA 4 $12 0.32% 94,309 0.79%
CANADA 4 $169 4.75% 362,821 3.05%
TURKEY 4 $83 2.33% 211,851 1.78%
UNDISCL 38 $516 14.51% 2,519,406 21.17%
ALL OTHER 36 $673 18.91% 2,243,374 18.85%
TOTAL 170 $3,557 100.00% 11,899,457 100.00%
2010VLCC & ULCC
SUEZMAXAFRAMAX
110KPANAMAX
70KPROD 45K < 40,000 OBO LPG & LNG TOTAL
JANUARY 3 6 4 2 15 21 1 5 57
FEBRUARY 3 0 7 5 8 11 0 1 35
MARCH 6 4 5 0 2 21 0 1 39
APRIL 4 2 4 4 8 11 0 5 38
MAY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JUNE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JULY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AUGUST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SEPTEMBER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OCTOBER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
NOVEMBER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DECEMBER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 16 12 20 11 33 64 1 12 169
Tankers in steady demand with sale and purchase activity being very similar to last month's activity. The
focus of most sale and purchase transactions this month was on Crude oil carriers, with mostly Korean built late 2000's to be succesfully transacted in April
2010. Few product carriers sold, but mostly the appetitewas for larger oil carriers as Suezmax and VLCC's havegood earnings excess of 50,000 per day which in turn
have pushed secondhand prices slightly up.
BUYERS - Greek buyers are leading the tanker buyers league. They have increased their lead further by acquiring a total of 24 units of 2.3million DWT carrying capacity, and have forked out a massive
$920million USD. Norwegian buyers have emerged 2nd with 11 unitssharing the seat with Indonesian buyers. Chinese buyers are 4th with
9 units.
SELLERS - The table on the RIGHT shows thenationality of the Sellers. Greek Sellers are in number
one position having sold 29 units (23 units last). 3Countries come 2nd with 17 units each, and these are
Singaporian, Japanese and Turkish sellers. Chinacomes 5th with 11 units sold.
SELLERS STATS 2010
MONTHLY UNIT SALE ACTIVITY
2010 TANKER buyer STATISTICS
TANKER UNITS SOLD - BREAKDOWN PER SIZE AND MONTH 2010
There is a forecast that by 2020 Indian coal imports will go sky rocket high and reach 300 million tonnes, a figure twice as much as that of Japan. Indian stats figures showed that in 2008 30 million tonnes were imported while 60 million tonnes traded in 2009 and a forecast of 84 million tonnes is for 2010. Το see the future potential growth Indian government's own expectation of coal imports, say that these will reach 200 million tonnes by 2016. The positively forecasted optimism surrounding Indiand it's 1.28billion population may well explain shipowners' enthusiasm and eagerness to order kamsarmax bulkers despite the already full and worrisome orderbook. There truth is that most Indian terminals can not take in capesize bulkers due to limitations in port infrastructure, but that could change with future development, but that will take time to be fully implemented. And time is costly...!!
HYUNDAI HI FAR EAST BUYER
So its Kamsarmax time… could it be a new trend, a new fashion… or is it the Lemmings effect of follow the wise leader that may prove wrong the decision for placing so many new orders in a time that, finance is still not easy and the taps are still rusty… while the headache of the NB orderbook is still haunting over our heads? Delivery in late 2011 or early 2012, for most Kamsarmax units with prices ranging from $32mil to $36mil per unit. But lets get serious and see what do really all these intelligent owners who opt for the Kamsarmax type vessel see in the near future?? We have in our hands an assessment of the potential in the Indian market for both thermal and coking coal business.
SPP SHIPBUILDING AKTIF DENIZCILIK
HYUNDAI HI LYRAS SHIPPING
OPTION 2 ‐ ALAFOUZOS ORDERS
THROUGH KYKLADES AND
OPTION 4
YARD BUYER’S NAME
OPTION 3 MORE
4TH Q 2011 AND 1ST Q 2012
NOTES
NEWBUILDING ORDERS BREAKDOWN by TYPE PER MONTH, for YEAR 2010
www.cotzias.gr – visit our constantly updated website APRIL 2010
DATE CLEAN % frm 2/1/10 DIRTY % frm 2/1/10
31/03/10 372 ‐13.3% 540 ‐5.9%
01/04/10 371 ‐14.0% 524 ‐7.3%
06/04/10 368 ‐14.8% 511 ‐9.2%
07/04/10 364 ‐15.1% 506 ‐10.1%
08/04/10 363 ‐15.5% 492 ‐8.7%
09/04/10 358 ‐16.0% 471 ‐8.5%
12/04/10 351 ‐16.4% 465 ‐8.4%
13/04/10 349 ‐16.6% 462 ‐8.4%
14/04/10 348 ‐17.3% 455 ‐9.2%
15/04/10 345 ‐17.4% 453 ‐8.5%
16/04/10 346 ‐17.5% 453 ‐7.0%
19/04/10 347 ‐17.5% 457 ‐6.3%
20/04/10 347 ‐17.0% 469 ‐5.8%
21/04/10 354 ‐15.4% 483 ‐5.2%
22/04/10 360 ‐13.5% 490 ‐5.1%
23/04/10 371 ‐12.5% 496 ‐4.7%
26/04/10 376 ‐11.9% 495 ‐3.6%
27/04/10 381 ‐10.2% 487 ‐2.7%
28/04/10 386 ‐10.3% 478 ‐2.9%
29/04/10 395 ‐10.4% 480 ‐3.1%
30/04/10 403 ‐10.3% 477 ‐2.7%
DISCLAIMER: INFORMATION & DATA CONTAINED IN THIS MONTHLY MARKET REPORT HAVE BEEN CAREFULLY OBTAINED FROM VARIOUS MARKET SOURCES. ALTHOUGH ALL IS BELIEVED TO BE CORRECT, N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUP MAKES NO GUARANTEE FOR ACCURACY, AND SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS INCURRED IN ANY WAY WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON RELYING ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.
BALTIC TANKER MARKET INDICES until 30th APRIL 2010
ALL CAPITAL LINK INDICES ARE USED WITH THE EXPRESS KIND PERMISSION OF CAPITAL LINK INC - NEW YORK
