State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Develop Planning Factors for

CBRNE Scenarios

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

6.2

How Do“Planning Factors”

Fit into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process?

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6.3

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Risk AssessmentNeeds

Assessment

Shortfalls or “Gaps”

Desired Capabilities

Current CapabilitiesVulnerability

AssessmentThreat

Assessment

State Administrative Agency

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

6.4

Planning factors process

State and local taskAssessment completion off-lineList Potential Targets

Consider military facilities

Likelihood of CBRNE use on TargetProject casualtiesNumber of DeceasedDetermine Maximum ScoreDetermine Potential CBRNE Scenarios

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R E F E R E N C E :

JurisdictionHandbook

page 29

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

6.5

Key points

Planning Factors determine potential incidents rather than “worst-case scenarios”

Consider an attack against a facility, site, system, or special event Death, injuries, or infrastructure damage that

would overwhelm response capabilities including mutual aid agreements

Concentrate on the number of casualties

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State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

6.6

Planning Factors and CBRNE scenario(s) help to establish:

Desired and current capabilities to respond effectively to CBRNE scenario(s)

Tasks by discipline Planning requirements for effective

responseOrganization requirements Equipment that should be on-handTraining desires for effective responseExercises to evaluate the response

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State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

6.7

Step 1 - List Potential TargetsList potential targetsUse the Vulnerability Assessment

worksheets

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Chemical Evacuated Victims

DeceasedSite/

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Potential

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Max Value Total

R E F E R E N C E :

JurisdictionHandbook

page 30

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

6.8

Step 2 - Likelihood of CBRNE on TargetCBRNE material listed Determine if potential for locationNote with check mark

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DeceasedSite/

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(Optional)

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Max Value Total

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

6.9

Step 3 - Project Casualties

Project the number of victims for each evacuation category

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(Optional)

1

2 10 50 100 500

3

4 50 100 250 500

5

6 5 2 10 500

Max Value Total

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

6.10

Step 4 - Number of Deceased

Victims who are deceased

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Planning Factors

Chemical Evacuated Victims

DeceasedSite/

Target

Potential

()

Non-Injured

WalkingStretch

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“Worried Well”

(Optional)

1

2 10 50 100 500 50

3

4 50 100 250 500 45

5

6 5 2 10 500 20

Max Value Total

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

6.11

Step 5 - Determine Maximum Score

Determine highest estimated total for each Planning Factor

Enter the total

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WalkingStretch

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“Worried Well”

(Optional)

1

2 10 50 100 500 50

3

4 50 100 250 500 45

5

6 5 2 10 500 20

Max Value Total 50 100 250 500 50

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

6.12

Step 6 - Determine Potential CBRNE Scenarios

Determine highest estimated numbers for each Planning Factor

CBRNE material used

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Maximum EvacuationMax

DeceasedMax Non-Injured

Max Walking

Max Stretcher

“Worried Well”(Optional)

Chemical 50 100 250 500 50

Biological

Radiological

Nuclear

Explosive

State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

6.13

DISCUSSION

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