State Key Project during 9th 5-yr plan

（ 96-908 ）

Research on Short-term Climate Prediction System in China

Background

Along with rapid development of our country’s economy, not only need more accurate mid-short term climate prediction, but also cry for longer-term climate prediction.Short-term climate prediction is a preceding problem in international atmospheric science and geoscience domains, which also being a most difficult span-subject problem.Because of its‘ important social economy significance and scientific difficult, the project had been ranked as one of 16 state key projects during 9th 5-yr plan.

Climate prediction is in the face of whole complicated climate system and its' changes, which relate to the changes of atmosphere, geosphere, biosphere, cryosphere and hydrosphere and their interaction, so it is limited and restricted by other correlated subject’s development and being a international science difficult problem .

Short-term climate prediction can’t follow old theories and methods used in mid-short term weather forecast, must develop new theories and methods.

sun（ short wave）radiation land（ long wave）

radiationglacier and snow

absorptionreflectionemissioncloud

wind

volcanic eruption：gas and volcanic particulate

atmosphere－waterinteraction

sea ice

ocean－ atmosphereinteraction

run offhuman activity

land surface process lake and river

ocean current

ice－ oceaninteraction

climate system

SpaceA

tmosphere

Ocean

Because of the together influences of Tibetan, Asian monsoon and Pacific, climate cause is very complex and special.

The common climatology theories and methods can’t resolve the climate prediction problem in China. It is essential to investigate theories and methods suitable to realistic conditions in China according to Chinese climate characteristics by our scientists.

Scientific difficult of short-term climate prediction in China

Snow coverBlocking high

Tibet plateauLand surface

process

Monsoon

Indian Ocean

Sub-tropical high pressure

Typhoon

El Nino

Major factors affecting climate of China

Organizing departments are China meteorological administration, China academy of science, ministry of education, ministry of agriculture, ministry of water resources, with CMA the first presiding department. There are 731 researchers participate in the project from 31 units in 5 departments.

731731 人人High technical

post443 60.6%

Intermediate technical post137 18.7%Elementary technical

post92 12.6%Master 21 2.9%

PH.D38 5.2%

Members in the special project and Members in the special project and technical post proportion technical post proportion

Projection Projection introductionintroduction

Through 731 scientists ( including 5 academicians and near 80 professors and researchers) 5yrs’(1996-2000) research, we has achieved whole target to tackle the key problem, established the first short-term operation system over state and regions which has being run successfully for 3 years and provided more than 14 kinds climate products for national and foreign users.

（Ⅰ） Establish a new prediction model with physical conception based on opening out climate signals.

Put forward the strongest climate signals which influence climate abnormity of China are El Nino events, Tibetan snow cover and monsoon.

Main technical innovations and level

Hereby excogitate new physical concept model, and provide new thought and practical methods with basis of firm physics for climate prediction in our country.

World impact of El Nino

Winter

Summer(from Climate Prediction Center, USA, 2001)

Impact of El Nino on summer precipitation in China for following year

Strong signal of El nino

El nino events has remarkable effect on summer rainfall in China for following year ：Wet over North China and Yangtze basins and dry over Huanghe and Huaihe valleys.

Snow depth over

Tibetan

Eurasian snow cover

Tibetan snow cover increase but Eurasian snow cover decrease

Positive correlation between winter show cover over the Tibetan plateau And subsequent summer precipitation in China

Timing of onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon

has a negative correlation with summer precipitation in China

Intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon has a

negative correlation with summer precipitation in China

(Ⅱ) Develop and establish a complex global and regional dynamical climate prediction model system.The model system including 5 models: T63L16 Global Atmosphere General Circulation ModelHighly Resolved Regional Climate Model T63L30 Global Ocean Model and sea-ice modelPacific-Indian Ocean circulation model with high resolutionEl Nino prediction model

Dynamical Short-term Climate Prediction Model System of NCC

Atmosphere, Ocean Data Assimilation

Global Atmosphere Model

Global OceanModel

Regional OceanModel

Regional Climate Model

Model Post-process System

El Nino Prediction Model

Nested

Couple

Couple

1998 summer (JJA) precipitation anomaly percentage (prediction in

April)

The climate model give a accurate prediction for 1998 summer flood over China before 3

months

1998 summer (JJA) precipitation anomaly percentage (observation)

2003 summer precipitation is predicted successful by global ocean-atmosphere coupled model nested the highly resolved

regional climate model

But the promulgate prediction from synthesis of many products can’t forecast flood over Huaihe valley.

Predicted precipitation(JJA) anomaly percentage in March(left) and May(right)

（Ⅲ） Under sustaining of computer flat with high capability and network, integrated short-term climate operation system has been established.

The system can satisfy the need of many country economy departments. According to the climate prediction background, it Can provide the effects of climate change on country economy departments and key regions such as water resources, agriculture, forest, traffic, electric power and important engineering and provide timely decision-making service for decision departments.

NMCCatalyst 2924M 3* 100M

FastEth C

hanel

NCCCatalyst 2948G

Center exchange machine701

GESW1Catalyst 4006

2* 1000M

GigaE

th Channel

web manager main server IBM SPClimate databank serverScientific calculate server

Light fibre disk array(1.3TB)SP consoleIBM 43P-150

4*1000M Fibre Channel

Monitor flatIBM 43P-150

Climate evaluation and service operational s

ubsystemIBM Netfinity

Minitype tape store

Frame of short-term climate prediction

Client server

Climate monitor-diagnosis operational subs

ystemIBM Netfinity

Climate prediction operational subsystemIBM Netfinity

…

SiSi

NMCGalaxy(Yinhe) 、sunway 、 CRAY huge computer

Dynamical model subsystem IBM Netfinity

Client server

Client server

data, figure, methods

Product output

Information collection

Clim

ate effect evalution

Product output

Application clim

ate databank

Clim

ate application

Clim

ate product service

Clim

ate data processing

Clim

ate data hierarchical storage system

High capability com

puter

NC

C LA

N

9210 WA

N

Monthly dynam

ical extend prediction model

Seasonal-annual dynamic m

odel prediction

Coupled a-o m

odel for ENSO

prediction

Global clim

ate inspect diagnosis

East Asian m

onsoon inspect diagnosis

Ice-snow belt inspect diagnose

ENSO

events integrated prediction

databank

Com

munication net

Data pre-processing

Data post-processing

Global history data analysis

monitoring dagnose

Product output

Short-term climate prediction system

databank

Short-term clim

ate prediction

Short-term clim

ate prediction

Special climate prediction

Prediction integration decision-make

Prediction quality test

Flood/drought monitoring prediction

Clim

te effect evalute

Clim

ate information analysis

Application clim

ate method searches

Mid-sm

all scale local climate m

odel

Decision-m

aking and comm

onweal service

Special service

RegC

M test

Clim

ate prdiction evalute

Climate monitoring diagnosis Dynamical climate model Short-term climate prediction Climate effect evaluation

Dynam

ical model test

application and service

Correct prediction

2001:Above-normal precipitation along coastal region; drought in central part of China 2002:drought in North China and floods in South China

Summary for six-year seasonal prediction by use of theprediction system (1998-2003)

1998:Floods in theYangtze River and Northeast China2000:Above-normal precipitation in the region between theYellow River and the Huaihe River; drought in North China

Basically correct, but with regional floods incorrectly predicted

1999:drought in North China, but floods in Southern Jiangsu (23June-1July)

2003:increased precipitation in North China; but

floods in the Huaihe River(27June-12July)

Good skill for large-scale area and general trends and relatively low skill for regional floods Predictve capability:

1998 summer, heavy floods occurred in whole Yangtze basins, predictions for range and intensity are quite successful

Seasonal precipitation prediction(left) and observation(right) for 1998 summer (Anomaly percentage:%)

1999 年夏季（ 6 ～ 8 月）降水量距平百分率图1999 年夏季（ 6 ～ 8 月）降水量距平百分率预报图

Seasonal precipitation prediction for 1999 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) (left: predicted; right: observed)

1999 年夏季，预报为中等旱涝年景，多雨范围比前一年小 ，少雨范围比前一年大，与实况一致。但预报主要雨带偏北 ，位于江淮、黄淮、华北中南部到东北东部一带；实况是主要雨带偏南，位于长江以南地区；出入较大。

2000 summer, predictions are right for flood over Huanghe and Huaihe valleys and drought over some regions in North of China,The prediction evaluation highly reached 76%, with 11% increase

compared to which in “9th 5-yr plan” and being the third since 1978.

Seasonal precipitation prediction(left) and observation(right) for 2000 summer (Anomaly percentage:%)

2001 summer, the prediction is consistent to observation, there are flood overEast of Huanghe and Huaihe valleys, lower of Yangtze basin, most regions in South of China, east of Southwest China, northwest of Sinkiang, with drought over most regions in North China and Yangtze basins. But raininess belts in prediction is weaker than observation in South of China and stronger in north of China.

Seasonal precipitation prediction(left) and observation(right) for 2001 summer (Anomaly percentage:%)

2002 年夏季（ 6 ～ 8 月）降水量距平百分率图2002 年夏季（ 6 ～ 8 月）降水量距平百分率预报图

Seasonal precipitation prediction for 2002 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) (left: predicted; right: observed)

预报 2002 年夏季，我国多雨的范围比前一年增大，江淮、长江中下游、江南东部、华南大部、云贵高原南部等地降水偏多，部分地区洪涝灾害比前一年加重。北方大部地区以少雨为主，华北、西北东部和东北的部分地区要注意多年连续干旱带来的严重影响。上述预报意见基本正确。但部分地区预报与实况有出入。

Seasonal precipitation prediction for 2003 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) (left: predicted; right: observed)

预报总体上正确：北方降水比前四年增多，可能出现南北两支多雨带。江淮地区少雨，有夏旱（高温少雨）。长江流域不会出现严重洪涝。登陆台风个数偏少。但淮河流域突发性暴雨未报出。

(Ⅳ) Using popularize and society economical benefits

Since 1998, the system has been turning into the main operational system in national climate center and 7 regional meteorology centers and playing skeleton action ， besides, many kinds of climate products and information being put out periodically or non-periodically by different medium form . The project has remarkable international influence and provide winter, summer and stride-year climate prediction for East Asian and Southeast Asian on East Asian international climate conference hold by turns in China, Japan and Korea every year. Which has established the foundation for national climate center to upgrade being Asian regional climate center underling WMO.

Improve greatly modernization level of meteorology option in our country, and make a great progress from empirical and statistical method to objective, quantitative and automatic prediction.

bring along improvement of whole numerical weather and climate prediction technique.

Intensify our international competition in this domain.

Significance of the project implementation