1©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Experian Public.
© 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company
names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian.
Experian Public.
www.experian.com/automotive
State of the Automotive Finance Market A look at loans and leases in Q3 2016
Presented by: Melinda Zabritski | Sr. Director, Financial Solutions
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Market Overview
Outstanding balances
Total risk distributions
Delinquency
Originations
New and Used financing
Lender and transaction types
Loan & lease characteristics
Session overview
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A look balances and delinquencies on all open automotive loans & leases
Overall Automotive Finance Market
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Loan balances break record highs while Credit Unions experience largest YOY growth (loans regardless of origination period)
Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
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18.58%
8.09%
9.83%
8.07%8.80%
Deepsubprime
Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime
Year-over-year balance change
Majority of loan balances remain prime or higher with modest growth in high risk segments (loans regardless of origination period)
Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
4.15% 3.95% 4.28%
18.12% 18.39% 18.45%
21.45% 21.77% 21.48%
29.50% 28.64% 28.44%
26.77% 27.26% 27.36%
2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3
Risk distribution of open loan balances
Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime
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30 day delinquency is flat with slight increase in at-risk dollars (loans and leases regardless of origination period)
Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
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30-day delinquency balances by state(loans regardless of origination period)
Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
HI = 1.78%
1.75%
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60 day delinquency growth across all lender types(loans and leases regardless of origination period)
Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
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60-day delinquency balances by state(loans and leases regardless of origination period)
Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
HI = 0.50%
0.35%
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Trends in automotive loans and leases
Originations in Q3 2016
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Automotive financing: snapshot of how and what consumers are financing
3.34% 3.71%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Used % of lease market
47.98% 47.12%
52.02% 52.88%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Finance Market: new v used units
New Used
86.6% 86.1%
55.3% 54.2%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Percentage of vehicles with financing
New Used
26.93% 29.49%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
% of all new vehicles that are leased
Source: Experian Automotive
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Credit Unions pick up market share across the board (loan and lease units combined)
34
.8%
6.2
%
29
.3%
17
.6%
12
.1%
35
.1%
6.2
%
28
.3%
19
.6%
10
.7%
Bank BHPH Captive CreditUnion
FinanceCo
Market Share of Total Financing(new/used units & loan/lease)
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
33
.1%
0.1
%
51
.9%
9.9
%
4.9
%
31
.8%
0.1
%
51
.2%
12
.0%
4.8
%
Bank BHPH Captive Credit Union Finance Co
Market Share of New Financing
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
36
.3%
12
.0%
7.8
%
24
.9%
18
.9%
38
.1%
11.5
%
8.0
%
26
.4%
16
.0%
Bank BHPH Captive Credit Union Finance Co
Market Share of Used Financing
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Source: Experian Automotive
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725
717
714712
714
723
716
713
710712
732
719718
715
718
Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Average new credit scores
All New New Loan New Lease
Credit scores increase across all transaction types
652648 650 650
655
676672 674 674
678
607603 605
609615
Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Average used credit scores
All Used Franchise Used
Independent Used
Source: Experian Automotive
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Score range refresh
Note: ranges above are those used by Experian Automotive for automotive finance market analysis and trending purposes. Other industries and lenders may use other ranges based on unique scores, portfolio and industry trends.
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Total finance market (loan & lease) becomes increasingly more prime across all, new and used financing
9.65% 9.31%17.69% 17.14%
44.86% 45.08%
27.11% 27.77%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
New risk distribution
5.44% 5.16%26.21% 24.60%
22.33% 22.21%
34.78% 36.14%
11.25% 11.89%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Used risk distribution
3.13% 3.04%
18.17% 17.35%
20.08% 19.81%
39.67% 40.38%
18.95% 19.42%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Total (new & used units) risk distribution
Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime
Source: Experian Automotive
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7.34% 7.03%
17.66% 16.60%
48.57% 48.50%
25.97% 27.34%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
New lease risk distribution
Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime22.8%
30.2%
31.4%
25.1%
32.2%
34.6%
Deep &Sub
Nonprime
Prime +
% of new borrowers choosing to lease
Q3 2016
Q3 2015
Leasing remains very prime as more consumers across all risk tiers choose to lease (loans not included)
Source: Experian Automotive
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Despite more prime consumers shifting to leasing the loan market becomes more prime
10.67% 10.44%17.73% 17.42%
43.25% 43.37%
27.57% 27.98%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
New loan risk distribution
5.40% 5.11%26.24% 24.61%
22.38% 22.28%
34.77% 36.15%
11.21% 11.85%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Used loan risk distribution
3.56% 3.48%
20.03% 19.26%
20.53% 20.44%
38.15% 38.88%
17.74% 17.94%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Total (new & used units) loan risk distribution
Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime
Source: Experian Automotive
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Prime and Super Prime borrowers choose used vehicles at an increasing rate resulting in shifts among all dealer types
Source: Experian Automotive
18.72% 17.25%
23.73% 23.29%
41.56% 42.77%
14.02% 14.85%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Used Franchise loan risk distribution
Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime
91.2
0%
78.7
4%
65.5
3%
54.7
6%
37
.98%
91.4
7%
79.5
2%
67.8
1%
57.8
5%
41.0
7%
DeepSubprime
Subprime Nonprime Prime SuperPrime
Percentage of consumers by risk tier choosing used loans
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
10.95% 10.28%
39.08% 36.60%
21.03% 21.31%
23.28% 25.47%5.66% 6.34%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Used Independent loan risk distribution
Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime
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$28,9
36
$18,8
66
$18,8
58
$16,1
90
$30,0
22
$19,2
27
$19,2
27
$16,6
47
Avg new loanamount
Avg used loanamount
Avg Franchiseused loanamount
AvgIndependent
used loanamount
Average loan amount
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Average used loan amount reaches record high while new remains over $30k
$25,100
$14,633
$16,631
$13,679
$28,082
$16,430
$18,545
$14,635
$31,422
$19,103
$20,958
$16,604
$31,502
$20,748
$22,052
$18,579
$27,696
$20,221
$21,190
$18,534
Avg New
All Used
Franchise used
Independent used
Average loan amount by tier
Super Prime Prime Nonprime Subprime Deep Subprime
Source: Experian Automotive
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67
35
68
36
New loan New lease
Average new term
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
72.11
37.42
72.43
37.32
72.36
37.00
69.45
36.44
62.59
35.64
New loan
New lease
Avg new term by risk tier
Super Prime Prime Nonprime Subprime Deep Subprime
New loan term at 68 months with higher terms on the higher risk new loans
Source: Experian Automotive
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65
58
63
66
59
63
Franchise used Independent used All used
Average used term
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Used terms rise as more prime consumers, who have longer terms, choose used vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive
65.89
53.99
58.12
67.25
56.78
61.73
67.88
60.55
64.90
66.95
62.75
65.45
62.50
60.19
61.62
Franchise used
Independentused
All used
Average term by risk tier
Super Prime Prime Nonprime Subprime Deep Subprime
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771752
699679
774756
700682
37 - 48 49 - 60 61 - 72 73 - 84
Average new score by loan term
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Average scores by term riselease is not included
651
684
659 666657
685
662 670
37 - 48 49 - 60 61 - 72 73 - 84
Average used score by loan term
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Source: Experian Automotive
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20.6%
43.5%
27.5%
0.71%
20.1%
40.7%
30.7%
0.98%
49 - 60 61 - 72 73 - 84 85+
Percentage of new loans by term
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Longer term loans continue to dominate the market with 85+ reaching nearly 1% of new
Source: Experian Automotive
23.7%
41.3%
16.2%
23.7%
41.5%
17.7%
49 - 60 61 - 72 73 - 84
Percentage of used loans by term
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
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$482
$398
$495
$405
New loan New lease
Average new payment
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Payments rise on new vehicles while leasing becomes more attractive as payments are $90 lower
Source: Experian Automotive
$495
$462
$511
$427
$514
$411
$500
$404
$474
$399
New loan
New lease
Avg new payment by risk tier
Super Prime Prime Nonprime Subprime Deep Subprime
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$374
$349
$360
$375
$351
$362
Franchise used Independent used All used
Average used payment
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Average used payments also climb
Source: Experian Automotive
$386
$384
$380
$389
$374
$377
$380
$346
$362
$370
$334
$355
$369
$332
$355
Franchise used
Independent used
All used
Average payment by risk tier
Super Prime Prime Nonprime Subprime Deep Subprime
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4.6
3%
8.7
6%
7.6
2%
11.6
9%
4.6
9%
8.4
8%
7.3
3%
11.1
7%
Avg new rate Avg used rate Franchiseused rate
Independentused rate
Average rates
Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Average new rate rises while prime shift to used and overall higher scores results in lower rates in the used market
13.53%
18.98%
17.59%
20.02%
10.65%
15.72%
14.23%
17.58%
6.39%
9.47%
8.72%
11.26%
3.59%
5.12%
4.90%
5.81%
2.60%
3.40%
3.36%
3.45%
Avg New
All Used
Franchise used
Independentused
Average rates by tier
Super Prime Prime Nonprime Subprime Deep Subprime
Source: Experian Automotive
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Portfolio balances reach record levels as loan amounts grow toall-time highs
Increases in both 30 & 60-day delinquency rates rise as the percentage of loans in the subprime portion of open portfolios grow
Leasing drops below 30% of all new consumer vehicle sales as consumers across all risk tiers increasingly choose to lease
Originations across all finance types become increasingly more prime and credit scores improve
Prime consumers also increasing choosing used vehicles resulting in score increases, greater percentages of used financing in the prime risk tier and lower average used rates
Loan amounts and payments climb while terms continue to extend
Summary
28©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Experian Public.
© 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company
names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian.
Experian Public.
www.experian.com/automotive
Insights about the market, the vehicles
and the people who buy them