State of the North American
Die Casting Industry
December 5, 2017
Stephen P. Udvardy
President
North American Die Casting Association
Is the New Administration
Doing Any Good?
Focus Areas:
• Healthcare
• Tax Reform
• Regulation Reduction
• Trade Balancing
• Infrastructure Spending (Private Financing)
• Defense Spending
• Minimum Wage
• Immigration
Manufacturing CEO’s Rate
Challenges YesterdayNational Association of Manufacturers Report from Q3 2016
Manufacturing CEO’s Rate
Challenges TodayNational Association of Manufacturers Report from Q2 2017
No Healthcare Reform as Yet
• Individual monthly premiums have doubled from 2013-2017
• Graham-Cassidy bill, yet to pass, includes control on how much rates can escalate
• According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the United States spent more on health care per capita, and more on healthcare as percentage of its GDP (17.2%), than any other nation
ASPE.HHS.gov ASPE: Assistant Secretary for Planning & Evaluation of Health & Human Services MLR: Medical Loss Ratio CMS: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
Workforce
• The Career Technical
Education bill has been
pending for over 10 years
• Government supportive
of initiating
Apprenticeship Programs
however
• National Network for
Manufacturing Innovation
Institutes have focus on
Workforce Development
No Tax Reform as Yet• A budget resolution will set the stage for tax
reform – may be resolution in December
• Hence, any tax bill will probably not take place
until early 2018 but likely by the end of March
2018.
• Corporate Tax Rate can’t be as low as 15% but
will probably be under 25%. The current word is
22.5%.
• Question - Is it an advantage to have the lower
rate if you’re currently at 27% and can no longer
deduct equipment and interest?
Regulatory Reform
• EPA has suffered staff cuts - less
resources now
• Clean Power Plan in early re-write
stage
• Delay in ground level ozone rule is
being challenged
• Reversal of the 54.5mpg fuel
efficiency standard is a possibility
• DOL/NLRB electronic reporting
requirements may be reversed
• OSHA – Electronic recordkeeping
is in effect but being reconsidered
Manufacturers Indicate How They
Would Benefit from Lower
Compliance Costs
NAM MANUFACTURERS’ OUTLOOK SURVEY SECOND QUARTER 2017
Trade Balance• NAFTA
• Negotiations officially began on August 16, 2017
• No one except Navarro and Trump want to totally scrap NAFTA
• The focus is on revising the 62.5% N.A. content up to 75% or higher
and setting a minimum U.S. content
• The U.S. is seeking changes on currency, rules of origin and dispute
resolution
• The target for completing changes is January of 2018, the earliest the
president can sign a new agreement is March 21st and roughly six
months later the new NAFTA goes before Congress for a required
vote
• If a good balance in trade is not met, could be a phase-out of NAFTA.
• Any change to NAFTA requires a 6- month notification.
• 232 Investigations: Aluminum and Steel – Tariffs, Quotas?
$1 Trillion Infrastructure Plan
• The $1T promise has an obstacle according to CNN -Trump’s own budget cuts.
• $255B in cuts for existing infrastructure programs considered to be wasteful
• “We will create the first class infrastructure our country and our people deserve”
• “It’s time to rebuild our country to bring back our jobs”.
• Is a new plan on the horizon? No sign that an infrastructure plan will become law soon.
Macro-Economics
GDP Growth Rate
GDP Growth was 2.6% in 2015, 1.6% in 2016, 2.5% is expected for 2017
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Percentage of Unemployed at 25.6%
Declined from 2016’s High of 28.5%
Consumer Sentiment Remains High
Personal consumption
index in September
2017 was 95.1, down
slightly from 98.1 in
January 2017.
Personal Consumption
Consumption ties to sentiment and helps to spark the economy. Increased
since recession but currently tailing down a bit in percent change.
Manufacturing Capacity Use at 75.5%
Manufacturing CEO Outlook Index
Up in 2017
New admin may
help small firms
NAM MANUFACTURERS’ OUTLOOK SURVEY SECOND QUARTER 2017
Expected Growth in Manufacturing
NAM MANUFACTURERS’ OUTLOOK SURVEY SECOND QUARTER 2017
Manufacturing Turning the Corner
in Recent Months
NAM MANUFACTURERS’ OUTLOOK SURVEY SECOND QUARTER 2017
End Market Analysis
Light-Vehicle Sales Up from the
Prior Year’s 17.75 M
Historical Vehicle Sales
Housing Market Shaping Up but
Shy of Real Healthy
Forecast: Up 16% in 2017 and up 9% in 2018
Appliances
Tied to Housing
Household appliance production grew 4% in 2016 and is forecast to grow
3% in 2017, and another 2% in 2018
25
Industries with Largest Annual Rate of
Change 2014-2024
4.7
4.2
4.1
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
0 1 2 3 4 5
Software publishers
Wireless telecommunications carriers (except satellite)
Satellite, telecommunications resellers, and all other telecommunications
Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing
Other miscellaneous manufacturing
Securities, commodity contracts, and other financial investments and related…
Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets (except copyrighted works)
Medical equipment and supplies manufacturing
Offices of other health practitioners
Home health care services
Monetary authorities, credit intermediation, and related activities
Medical and diagnostic laboratories
Offices of physicians
Other ambulatory health care services
Outpatient care centers
Hospitals; private
Computer systems design and related services
Petroleum and coal products manufacturing
General Merchandise stores
Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles
Die Casting Capacity Use in Q3 2017
Energy Cost ($/lb Shipped) Q3 2017
Current overall average energy cost is $0.21/lb shipped
Shipment Comparison by Quarter
U.S. Foundry Shipments of Aluminum
Castings by Method(millions of pounds)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Sand Castings
Permanent Mold
Die Castings
ALUMINUM ASSOCIATION SECOND QUARTER 2017 SHIPMENT REPORT
Forecast for 2017
2017 Q3 Snapshot
Research & Technology
Objectives:
• Identify company specific alloys
• Establish mechanical properties
• Seek Aluminum Association registration
• Transfer information to industry
Cast Materials
Standards & Specifications
• Eight company specific alloys identified
with potential performance advantages
AlloyComposition (%)
Si Cu Mg Fe Mn Zn Ni Ti Sr Other
A380 7.5-9.5 3.0-4.0 0.1 1.3 0.5 3.0 0.5 - - 0.5
B360 9.0-10.0 0.25 0.4-0.6 0.45 0.25-0.35 0.5 0.1 - 0.05-0.08 0.25
F380 8.5-9.5 3.0-4.0 0.1-0.3 0.45 0.25-0.35 1.0 0.1 - 0.05-0.08 0.5
C383 9.5-11.5 2.0-3.0 0.1-0.3 0.4 0.25-0.35 3.0 0.5 - 0.05-0.07 0.5
D384 10.5-11.5 3.0-4.5 0.1-0.3 0.4 0.25-0.35 3.0 0.1 - 0.05-0.07 0.5
High Mg A380 7.5-9.5 3.0-4.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 3.0 0.5 - - 0.5
Low Si A365 9.5 0.03 0.1-0.5 0.15 0.5-0.8 0.07 - 0.04-0.15 0.005-0.02 0.1
Gibbsalloy MN 0.1-0.3 0.1 2.6-3.7 0.2-0.5 0.4-1.0 0.05 - 0.03-0.07 - 0.5
AlMg2MN 0.2-0.4 0.05 1.85-2.3 0.6-0.8 0.4-0.6 0 - 0.05 - 0.5?
Cast Materials
Standards & Specifications
Tensile Properties of Cast Specimens
* - Mg higher than target
Alloy UTS (ksi) YS (ksi) % Elong.
A380 std 47.0 23.0 3.5
E380 45.8 27.2 3.0
E380-T5 46.7 39.3 1.2
F380 46.1 23.4 5.0
F380-T5 48.4 31.4 3.3
F380-T6 61.0 49.0 2.9
A360 46.0 24.0 3.5
B360 46.6 23.5 6.1
B360-T5 52.0 37.1 3.6
B360-T6 53.0 41.0 5.8
383 45.0 22.0 3.5
C383* 45.8 23.7 4.5
384 48.0 24.0 2.5
D384** 46.1 28.0 2.4
Gibbsalloy MN 30.6 15.9 12.1
Gibbsalloy MN -T5 32.5 18.5 11.7
AlMg2MN 29.1 15.4 10
Cast Materials
Standards & Specifications
• Heat treatment and tensile
testing conducted at an
independent lab
• Heat treatment: AMS 2750 E
• Tensile testing: ASTM E8-13a
• All strengths exceed those of
Standard A380
• Heat treatment boosts
strength
Tensile Properties of Castings
Alloy UTS (ksi) YS (ksi) % Elong.
A380 Standard 31.4 19.5 3.6
E380 31.9 24.4 2.9
E380-T5 37.1 36.7 1.0
E380-T6 42.3 40.3 2.0
F380 35.6 24.0 2.6
F380-T5 35.4 33.1 1.4
F380-T6 TDB TDB TDB
B360 35.9 20.6 6.0
B360-T5 40.8 27.6 5.1
B360-T6 35.3 24.5 7.9
Cast Materials
Standards & Specifications
Cast Specimen Data Added to NADCA Product Standards» F380 and B360 registration with AA in
progress
Cast Materials
Standards & Specifications
On-Demand Melting
• Objective:
• Eliminate holding of massive volumes of molten metal
• Develop alloy strategy which maximizes material usage
• Analysis of melting furnaces and laundering for on-demand
melting
• Develop optimum melting furnace options (gas electrical
resistance, induction, immersion heaters, microwave) for small
batch melting.
• Optimize a launder system and insulation to conserve energy and
eliminate hazards associated with an exposed molten metal
stream.
• Improve furnace melt technology to increase production for
lower quantity orders – higher speed, low volume
Charge size-shape optimization
On-Demand Melting
Charge size-shape optimization
On-Demand Melting
Targeting the objective of 6 sec/lb
Finite element simulations showed that melting
time is reduced as current frequency is
increased.
The impedance of the system needs to be
corrected to counteract the strong levitation
forces consequence of the high-frequency
currents.
59
kHz
84
kHz
On-Demand Melting
Targeting the objective of 6 sec/lb
Finite element simulations showed that melting
time is reduced as current frequency is
increased.
In summary, higher current freq. reduces melting
time. Adjustment of the resonant circuit is
required.
On-Demand Melting
Summary
• Induction is a viable method for on-demand melting.
• The melt rate increases with power and coupling.
• Preheating can significantly shorten melting time.
On-Demand Melting
Die Materials
Information from NADCA Publication #229
Die Materials
Die Materials
Many steels from which
to choose.
Lube-Free Die Casting
• Use of die lubricants result in a number
of undesirable outcomes
• Lubricants can reduce the quality of die
castings
• Utilizing lubricants increases costs
• Life of the die is compromised by the
thermal fluctuations caused by use of die
lubricants
• Die lubricants create expensive
housekeeping issues
Aluminum Adhesion Test (AAT)
• Developed a simple laboratory test
– Representative of the die casting process
• Evaluated both in-house and commercial coatings
• Generated quantitative measurement of “sticking”
behavior
– Aluminum alloys on coated and uncoated substrates
Results – Adhesion Strength
Material Supplier MethodAdhesive Strength
[MPa]
AlCrN Supplier 1 Cathodic arc 0
AlTiN Supplier 1 Cathodic arc 0
CrWN Supplier 2 Thermal diffusion 0
AlTiN Supplier 3 Cathodic arc 0*
TiAlN Supplier 3 Cathodic arc 0.01
CrN Supplier 4 Cathodic arc 0.07
Cr CSM Sputtering 0.12
CrN/AlN CSM Sputtering 0.19
CrWN Supplier 4 Cathodic arc 0.26
CrN Supplier 5 Cathodic arc 0.78
TiN CSM Sputtering 0.84
AlCrN Supplier 5 Cathodic arc 1.30
TiB2 Supplier 6 Sputtering 2.54
*Stuck, but no load required to separate cast aluminum from coating
Results – Adhesion Strength
Material Supplier MethodAdhesive Strength
[MPa]
AlCrN Supplier 1 Cathodic arc 0
AlTiN Supplier 1 Cathodic arc 0
CrWN Supplier 2 Thermal diffusion 0
AlTiN Supplier 3 Cathodic arc 0*
TiAlN Supplier 3 Cathodic arc 0.01
CrN Supplier 4 Cathodic arc 0.07
Cr CSM Sputtering 0.12
CrN/AlN CSM Sputtering 0.19
CrWN Supplier 4 Cathodic arc 0.26
CrN Supplier 5 Cathodic arc 0.78
TiN CSM Sputtering 0.84
AlCrN Supplier 5 Cathodic arc 1.30
TiB2 Supplier 6 Sputtering 2.54
*Stuck, but no load required to separate cast aluminum from coating
Three
coatings
exhibited
zero
adhesion
strength
Results – Adhesion Strength
Material Supplier MethodAdhesive Strength
[MPa]
AlCrN Supplier 1 Cathodic arc 0
AlTiN Supplier 1 Cathodic arc 0
CrWN Supplier 2 Thermal diffusion 0
AlTiN Supplier 3 Cathodic arc 0*
TiAlN Supplier 3 Cathodic arc 0.01
CrN Supplier 4 Cathodic arc 0.07
Cr CSM Sputtering 0.12
CrN/AlN CSM Sputtering 0.19
CrWN Supplier 4 Cathodic arc 0.26
CrN Supplier 5 Cathodic arc 0.78
TiN CSM Sputtering 0.84
AlCrN Supplier 5 Cathodic arc 1.30
TiB2 Supplier 6 Sputtering 2.54
*Stuck, but no load required to separate cast aluminum from coating
AlCrN
coating
chosen
for plant
trials
Results – Adhesion Strength
Material Supplier MethodAdhesive Strength
[MPa]
AlCrN Supplier 1 Cathodic arc 0
AlTiN Supplier 1 Cathodic arc 0
CrWN Supplier 2 Thermal diffusion 0
AlTiN Supplier 3 Cathodic arc 0*
TiAlN Supplier 3 Cathodic arc 0.01
CrN Supplier 4 Cathodic arc 0.07
Cr CSM Sputtering 0.12
CrN/AlN CSM Sputtering 0.19
CrWN Supplier 4 Cathodic arc 0.26
CrN Supplier 5 Cathodic arc 0.78
TiN CSM Sputtering 0.84
AlCrN Supplier 5 Cathodic arc 1.30
TiB2 Supplier 6 Sputtering 2.54
*Stuck, but no load required to separate cast aluminum from coating
AlCrN
coating
chosen
for plant
trials
• AlCrN from supplier 1 exhibited zero
adhesion strength in multiple trials
• AlCrN has excellent oxidation resistance up
to 800oC
• AlCrN has high hardness and good wear
resistance
Plant Trial
• Casting chosen was a
balance shaft housing
• Weighs 1.75-lbs
• Produced in a single
cavity die
• Using a 700-ton die
casting machine
• PPAP run
AlCrN Coating
• Entire die coated with AlCrN• Moving side
• Cavity, runner block, vent block and core pins
• Fixed side• Cavity and vent block
Moving
side of die
Fixed side
of die
• Uncoated version
of die previously
run at Mercury• About 90,000
shots
• Necessary to
spray lube on
uncoated die for
12 secs
Plant Trial - ResultsDay 1
• 70 castings produced using 2 seconds lube
spray
• 83% reduction in spray
• No evidence of sticking
• 30 casings produced using 1 second lube
spray
• 92% reduction in spray
• No evidence of sticking
• One casting attempted with no spray
• Stuck
Status –Plant Trial
• Coating has allowed a
reduction in spray time
from 12 seconds to 1
second
• 92% reduction in spray
• Sizable portion of the die is
running without lubrication
• Only the gate region of the
die is being sprayed
Spray
zone
Lube Free
Quality Improvement
• Castings produced in coated die
were T6 heat treated
• 1000oF/2 hrs + WQ + Age
• Would normally be expected to
produced surface blistering
• Due to entrapped air and lubricant
• Minimal blistering after T6 heat
treatment
• Suggests improved internal quality
of castings due to low lube
• Why Multi-layer?
• Cracks initiated at the surface of monolithic layers and can
readily propagate to the substrate
• Multi-layer coatings• Cracks change propagation directions at layer interfaces
• Avoiding premature failure
Single layer
coatings
Multi-layer
coatings
Multi-Layer Coatings
• AlCrN + TiN
• Consistently exhibited zero adhesion in
CSM’s laboratory adhesion test
• Performing well in lube free plant trials at
Mercury Castings
• TiAlN + TiN
• TiAlN also exhibited exhibited zero adhesion
in CSM’s laboratory adhesion test
• From two commercial suppliers
• Common coating for Indian die casters
Multi-Layer Systems Evaluated
AlCrN + TiN
• Produced multi-layer coatings• From about 350 nm +
350 nm layer thickness
• Down to about 3 nm + 3 nm layer thickness
• Testing has shown excellent adhesion to substrate • Even after thermal
testing
• 680oC/10 mins + WQ80 nm AlCrN + 60 nm TiN
multi-layer coating
Lubricant Evaluation
Lubricant Evaluation
Cooling effect during spray, plate at 400C
Lubricant Evaluation
Cooling effect during pour, plate at 400C
Conclusions• Trump Administration may be doing some good. Healthcare
reform, tax reform, trade balance yet to be delivered. There
has been push-back on and delays of some onerous
regulations.
• Manufacturing in general seems to be turning the corner.
Sales, production, investments are up.
• Die Casting shipments in 2017 will be about the same as for
2016. Major markets are hanging fairly steady.
• New technologies have been developed and others are in
development for the die casting industry. These will assist in
keeping the industry strong and able to compete globally and
with other processes through improved operational efficiencies
and improved cast part performance.