Statistics and forecastThis is quarterly edition of statistics and forecasts for the Wind Power Market, covering data from
turbine manufacturers and wind power developers acting on the Swedish market (estimated
coverage is 100 percent respectively 95 percent of the total Swedish market)
Q3 2019
Svensk Vindenergi – Swedish Wind Energy Association, SWEA
2019-10-24
• The statistics are based on the order books of the turbine manufacturers and
project portfolios of the wind power developers presented at aggregated level
• The forecast consists of three future scenarios (low, base, high). They are based
on assumptions regarding which projects will be realized - considering today’s
market situation and the future’s.
• Low case: Only projects where turbine contracts (firm and unconditional) have been signed
will be realized. In this scenario no further investment decisions are made, hence this
scenario defines the lower limit of wind power growth in Sweden.
• Base case: Projects with signed turbine contracts, approximately 20 percent of permitted
projects and 10 percent of projects under permission process will be realized. This is the
most realistic scenario and is the official forecast.
• High case: Projects with signed turbine contracts, around 30 percent of permitted projects
and 15 percent of projects under permission process will be realized. This scenario is more
optimistic and sets the ceiling for growth of wind power in Sweden.
The statistics and forecast
Total by the end of 2018
Turbines: 3 652
Capacity: 7 395 MW
Actual production: 16,4 TWh *
Annual production (estimated): 19,5 TWh **
Added capacity in 2019 (forecast)1st quarter: 136,2 MW
2nd quarter: 140,8 MW
3rd quarter: 519,0 MW
4th quarter: 1200,3 MW
Total: 1996,3 MW
Total by the end of 2019 (forecast)Turbines: 4 173
Capacity: 9 392 MW
Actual production: 20,7 TWh *
Annual production (estimated): 26,0 TWh **
Installations in 2019
* Actual production is the real production and
depends on wind conditions and when
installations are made during the year.
** Estimated annual production is the annual
production the turbines are expected to
produce when in operation during a whole year
with normal wind condittions.
Project portfolio, status by 2019-09-30
** Estimations
**
**
*
* Firm and unconditional turbine order based on investment decisions
( +91 )
( +337 )
( +57 )
( +349 )
Quarterly changeIn operation Onshore Offshore Total
Windturbines 3 790 79 3 869
Capacity (MW) 8 001 190 8 191
Under construction Onshore Offshore Total
Windturbines 1 106 1 106
Capacity (MW) 4 623 4 623
Permitted Onshore Offshore Total
Windturbines 1 482 459 1 941
Capacity (MW) 6 057 2 075 8 132
In permission process Onshore Offshore Total
Windturbines 1 378 150 1 528
Capacity (MW) 5 841 1 750 7 591
In operation
Permitted
In permitting process
Source: Vindbrukskollen.se
Geographical spread
Rejected
Project status
New turbine contracts (firm and binding)
* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market
275
106
248
50
221
115189
25 51 49 63160
66
273
2
635
25
1429
220
413403
675
1225
114
686
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Q3 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
Q1 2
01
4
Q2 2
01
4
Q3 2
01
4
Q4 2
01
4
Q1 2
01
5
Q2 2
01
5
Q3 2
01
5
Q4 2
01
5
Q1 2
01
6
Q2 2
01
6
Q3 2
01
6
Q4 2
01
6
Q1 2
01
7
Q2 2
01
7
Q3 2
01
7
Q4 2
01
7
Q1 2
01
8
Q2 2
01
8
Q3 2
01
8
Q4 2
01
8
Q1 2
01
9
Q2 2
01
9
Q3 2
01
9
New turbine contracts (capacity) Mean value last 12 month
MW
Order books
Time plan according to turbine manufacturers for wind power installations
during year (MW) *
2018 2019
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
(Tot)
2020 2021
716 136 141 519 1200 1996 1661 1761
* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market
Status as of 2019-09-30
MW
Installed capacity by price area 2022-12-31 (forecast)
1168
2954
2493
1575
1589
2505
439
90
647
294
113
73
162
33
27
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4
Permission process
Permitted
Under construction
In operation
Wind power production 2019 (forecast)
TWh
31/12-18 31/3 30/6 30/9 31/12-19
Actual and forecast
16,4
19,0 19,320,7 20,7
6,3
10,4
15,4
20,7
0
5
10
15
20
25
Production last 52 weeks
Cumulative production
Wind power production – different scenarios
TWh
Actual and forecast
As of 31/12
Increased uncertainty
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
High case
Base case
Low case
Base caseThis scenario is the most realistic and official forecast of Svensk Vindenergi
Actual and forecast
As of 31/12
Increased uncertainty
61007160
990011450
1660015500
1760016400
20747
28274
34362
39939
2899 3743 43825425 6029,2 6495 6691 7395
939211101
1312814270
2039 2403 2663 3048 3233 3378 3437 3652 4173 4611 5118 5397
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Annual production[GWh]
Cumulativecapacity [MW]
Cumulativeinstalled windturbines
Assumptions
Part of wind power project portfolio capacity expected to be realized within
given time frame depending on scenario (approximate figures)
Status High Base ** Low
Under construction 100 % 100 % 95 %
Permitted * 30 % 20 % 0 %
In permission process * 15 % 10 % 0 %
Only onshore wind power are expected to be built.
The base case reflects a possible scenario based on an assessment of current and future market conditions.
*
**
Follow up
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Previous forecasts and actual installed wind power capacity
MW
Follow up
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual
Actual (normalyear)
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Previous forecasts and actual annual wind power production
TWh
