Statoil Venture Showcase20th April 2017Elisabeth Aarrestad – Vice President Market Analysis7 april 20171 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

Petroleum has created wonders……and contributed to high growth, especially in Norway

0

100

200

300

400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Canada Japan

Norway Sweden

United States Finland

Denmark Germany

United Kingdom

Real GDP per capitaPPP, 1970=100

Source: OECD, Illustration: Roar Hagen

7 april 20172 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

But explorers cut spending after price collapse… which resulted in the lowest discoveries since 1947

Conventional Oil Discovered

• 2016 figure covers exploration results to August

• Discoveries in 1947 amounted to just 230 million barrels

Source: Bloomberg, Wood Mackenzie

Ekofisk3.3

Statfjord3.4 Johan Sverdrup

2-3

Oseberg2.2

7 april 20173 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

However, oil demand continues to grow… in the short term, but at a lower pace

Global oil demand growth 2014-2022

• China & India account for 46% of world demand growth to 2022

• Global oil product demand passes 100 mb/d in 2019

Source: IEA Oil 2017

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

mb/

d

China India Rest of the world

7 april 20174 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

Global upstream investments see rebound … and are on track to post gains in the range of 3-7% in 2017

Global oil and gas upstream capital spending 2010-2017

Source: IEA Oil 2017

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100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

US

D (2

015)

billi

on

-25%

-26%

7 april 20175 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

Prices are up again but uncertainty prevailsImportant: Substantial need for new investments to satisfy demand

Brent Price

Source: Platts

Gas Price New volumes to 2040,

depending on scenario

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

20

06

20

09

20

12

20

15

2020

2030

7580

Planning

assumptions1

US

D/b

bl

2020

2030

Planning

assumptions1

4 4

6

8

0

2

4

6

8

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12

14

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06

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09

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12

20

15

NBP spot

Henry Hub

US

D/M

MB

tu

Source: ICIS Heren, NYMEX Source: Statoil Energy Perspectives 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Oil

Gas

New RES

13 000

TWh

1.8-3.9

Tcm

30-90

Mbd

Bill

ion t

oe

7 april 20176 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

Several future scenarios are possible…Rivalry, Reform, Renewal* - but the world is twice as rich and more efficient

World GDP growth rates %

Source: Statoil Energy Perspectives 2016

2013 Renewal

Reform

Rivalry

0

1

2

3

4

'90-'0'0-'10'10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40

Reform Renewal Rivalry

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20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Reform Renewal Rivalry

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Reform Renewal

Rivalry

Energy intensityIndex, 1990=100

World GDP and energy demandIndex, 1990=100

7 april 20177 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

Oil demand*, and supply from existing fields Million barrels per day

Gas demand, and supply from existing fieldsBillion cubic meters

Oil and gas are here to stay…… for decades

Demand range

Decline range

Production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2020 2030 2040

Demand range

Decline range

Production

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2015 2020 2030 2040

Assuming production from existing fields declining at 3-6% p.a.

Source: IEA (WEO 2015), Statoil (projections)

2013 Renewal

Reform

Rivalry

7 april 20178 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

Global oil and gas demand growth varies Large variation across sectors – significant growth in non-energy demand

Change in oil demand 2013-2040Mbd

Source: Statoil Energy Perspectives 2016

10,6

-14,0

23,8

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Reform Renewal Rivalry

OtherTransformation

Power & Heat

Non-Energy

Transport

Other Stationary

Residential

Industry

1 229

-9

1 166

-1 500

-1 000

-500

0

500

1 000

1 500

Reform Renewal Rivalry

Change in gas demand 2013-2040BCM

2013 Renewal

Reform

Rivalry

7 april 20179 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

Statoil is investing in next generation portfolio… and plans to spend ~11bn USD organic capex and ~1.5bn USD on EXP

Planned start-up by 2022

Source: Statoil CMU Feb 2017

20234

7 april 201710 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

Statoil also invests in smaller high value projects… such as the Njord and Bauge development projects

Source: OECD, illustration: Roar Hagen

Bauge tie-in to upgraded Njord field

Planned start-up: 2020

Prolonging Njord production by 20 years

• Planned capex total NOK 20 billion:

– NOK 16 billion for Njord upgrades

– NOK 4 for Bauge subsea tie-in

• Njord remaining resources of 175 mboe*

• Bauge resources of 73 mboe

*including Hyme

7 april 201711 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

Exploring the Barents Sea… is at the core of the exploration activity plan in 2017

7 april 201712 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

Elisabeth Aarrestad

Vice President Market Analysis

www.statoil.com

7 april 201713 Classification: Internal © Statoil ASA

A wide span in forecasts

Liquids demandMillion barrels per day

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Reform Rivalry RenewalIEA NP IEA 450 EIABP XOM History

Source: Statoil, IEA (WEO 2015), EIA, BP, ExxonMobil

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Reform Rivalry RenewalIEA NP IEA 450 EIABP XOM History

Gas demandBillion cubic meters

Source: Statoil, IEA (WEO 2015), EIA, BP, ExxonMobil