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Status of and Outlook for Nuclear Generation in the U.S.

Energy Bar Association Mid-Year Meeting

December 3, 2009

Scott SitzerU.S. Energy Information Administration

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U.S. Nuclear Status

• Currently 104 nuclear reactors at 65 power plants in 31 States.

• Nuclear is approximately 20 percent of all generation in the U.S.

• Last new nuclear plant to come on line was Watts Bar 1 (TVA) in TN in 1996.

• No new units have completed the application process since 1978.

Operable U.S. Nuclear Units, 1957-2008

Electricity Generation by Fuel Type - 2008

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Current Nuclear Developments

• License Applications for 27 New Reactors at 18 Sites Received by NRC, but Not All are Being Actively Pursued

• 3 new sites in Texas, Florida, and South Carolina being considered, all others on existing sites

• New nuclear production not expected until 2016 at the earliest

• One enrichment facility under construction in New Mexico; construction on a second in Ohio has been suspended; a third planned unit, in Idaho, is currently under regulatory review, and a fourth, using laser separation technology, is being considered for a site in North Carolina.

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Location of Potential New U.S. Nuclear Reactors

Factors Favoring Future Nuclear Development

• EPACT 2005 tax credits, loan guarantees, and insurance provisions

• Need for additional baseload generation in the future

• Zero-emission technology

Barriers to New Nuclear Development

• High capital costs

• Waste disposal issues

• Public perceptions

Capital Cost Assumptions for New Generating Capacity

Outlook

• EIA’s reference case projects increases for nuclear capacity of about 12 gigawatts net by 2030, assuming current laws and regulations.

• Total is made up of 3.4 gigawatts of expansion at existing plants, 13.1 gigawatts of new capacity, and 4.4 gigawatts of retirements.

• But other scenarios show more or less depending upon assumptions about costs, demand, and emissions policies.

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Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2009, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Nuclear Generating Capacity, 2007, 2020, and 2030 (gigawatts)

Waxman-Markey Analysis

• EIA analyzed the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACESA), the Waxman-Markey bill

• Analysis shows significant impacts on nuclear capacity and generation through 2030

• Results are dependent on assumptions concerning banking, international offsets, and the costs of low-emission technologies

Waxman-Markey Analysis (contd.)

• Under the Basic ACESA case, nuclear generating capacity is 195 gigawatts (up 77 percent from the reference case), and generation is 1548 billion Kwh in 2030.

• Under this scenario, nuclear would account for 35 percent of total generation in 2030, compared to 19 percent in the reference case projection.

• Along with renewables, nuclear would be the primary source of replacement generation for coal and natural gas.

Main cases in EIA’s analysis

Case Name Assumptions

BasicIntegrated analysis of all of the modeled provisions of ACESA.

Zero BankSame as Basic but no carryover of allowances beyond 2030. Proxy for major low- no-carbon energy technology breakthroughs with significant market impacts after 2030

High OffsetsSame as Basic but assumes increased use of international offsets.

High CostSame as Basic but assumes that nuclear, fossil with CCS and biomass gasification costs are 50 % higher

No InternationalSame as Basic but assumes international offsets are too expensive or unable to meet the requirements for use

No International / Limited

Same as Basic but limits additions of nuclear, fossil with CCS and biomass to reference case levels. Also no international offsets.

EIA’s Projected Capacity Additions by Fuel, 2007-2030: ACESA Analysis

(thousand megawatts)

6935 39

125 4255 53 82 46

112

96

44 45

13581

119

93 95116

219

250

60410

100

200

300

400

500

600

Reference Basic Zero Bank High Offsets High Cost NoInternational

No Int /Limited

Renewable

Nuclear

Natural Gas with CCS

Natural Gas

Coal with CCS

Coal

Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009

EIA’s Projected Generation by Fuel in 2030:ACESA Analysis (billion Kilowatt-hours)

2021 2296

841

1650 1593 1281

100 285

015

513

262 304293

440 15

892976

636

708 713880

5921638

806

890

15481147 1151 923

1863890

352

798

1021979 987

9741399

1315

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2007 Reference Basic Zero Bank HighOffsets

High Cost NoInterational

No Int /Limited

Coal Coal w /CCS Oil Natural Gas Natural Gas w /CCS Nuclear Renew able

Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009

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Thank You for your Attention!For more information:

Energy Information Administration home pageww.eia.doe.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html

International Energy Outlook www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

Monthly Energy Review www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html

U.S. Energy Information Administrationwww.eia.doe.gov