Status of PhotovoltaicStatus of PhotovoltaicDeployment in Spain: TDeployment in Spain: TDeployment in Spain: TDeployment in Spain: T

José HerreJosé HerreCIEMCIEMCIEMCIEM

DepartmenDepartmenDivision of RenDivision of Ren

Ath E W k ’08

jjose.herreroose.herrero

Athens Energy Week ’08November November

c Industry, Market and c Industry, Market and The risk of the SuccessThe risk of the SuccessThe risk of the SuccessThe risk of the Success

ero Ruedaero RuedaMATMATMATMATt of Energyt of Energy

newable Energynewable Energy

8 Ph t lt i S i

gygy@ciemat.es@ciemat.es

8: Photovoltaic Seminar12th, 200812th, 2008

M d idMadrid

TheThe EuroEuro

Annual Average: 1.430 kWh/kWp

opeanopean SunSun BeltBelt Athens

Annual Average: 1.350 kWh/kW

Photovoltaic Market in EuropePhotovoltaic Market in Europe

Accumulated PV Power in EUROPE 2007: 4,69 GAccumulated PV Power in EUROPE 2007: 4,69 G

1.541

3.148

Potencia AcumulaP t i I t l dAccumulated PV P

I t ll d PV PPotencia Instalad

¡¡ 33% of the total PV P¡¡ 33% of the total PV P

Installed PV Powe

¡¡ 33% of the total PV P¡¡ 33% of the total PV P

(Germany(Germany

Source: Euro

GWGW

1 MWp

MWp

ada en Europa hasta 2006E 2007

Power in Europe until 2006

i E d i 2007a en Europa en 2007

Power was installed 2007 !!Power was installed 2007 !!

er in Europe during 2007

Power was installed 2007 !!Power was installed 2007 !!

y and Spain)y and Spain)

opean Photovoltaic Industry Association

World Photovoltaic Market 2008*: 3 62 GWWorld Photovoltaic Market 2008*: 3 62 GW

Photovoltaic Market in SpainPhotovoltaic Market in Spain

World Photovoltaic Market 2008 : 3,62 GWWorld Photovoltaic Market 2008 : 3,62 GW

Spanish Market 2008*: 300 MWp*Spanish Market 2008*: 300 MWp*

Estimated figures*Estimated figures*

11--1,2 GW1,2 GW

1 6 G1 6 G1,6 G1,6 G,,Germany

41%ROWROW59%

European Photovoltaic MEuropean Photovoltaic M

WpWpWp.Wp.

France

Portugal1%

Resto UE0,5%

Greece1%

Italy7%

7%WpWp

GWGWSpain14%GWpGWppp

Germany70%

Market Distribution 2007Market Distribution 2007

Photovoltaic situation in Spain Nov. 08 : Legal FraPhotovoltaic situation in Spain Nov. 08 : Legal Fra

DeploymentDeployment andand PolicyPolicy FramewFramew

- Renewable Energies National

LegalLegal andand RegulatoryRegulatory FramewoFramewo

-Royal Decree 661/2007.

-Technical Building Code. ( Since September 2007)

-- New Royal Decree 1578New Royal Decree 1578(In force after Septemb(In force after Septemb

ameworkamework

workwork:

Plan

orkork:

8/2008 8/2008 ber 29th).ber 29th).

Deployment and Policy FrameDeployment and Policy Frame

Renewable Energies PlanRenewable Energies Plan

Ph t lt i T t PER 2010

Goal

Photovoltaics Targets PER 2010

Goal(2010): 400 MWIncrease(2005-2010): 363 MW

B kd b I ll i C i (2010)Breakdown by Installation Categories (2010):

Off-Grid On-Grid On-Grid P<10Off Grid P<100kW (Sun Trackin15 MW 205 MW 112 MW

ework: Targets PER 2005ework: Targets PER 2005--20102010

n 2005n 2005--20102010

112

88 350

400

450

100

120 Annual Installed Power (MWp)

MW

p) Accumulated Power (MWp)

p)

72250

300

350

60

80

ed P

ower

(M

Pow

er (M

Wp

46

2619 100

150

200

20

40

nual

Inst

alle

umul

ated

P

1910

0

50

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

20

An Acc

00kW On-Grid

At the End of the Year

ng) P>100kW31 MW

Source:

PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200

RD 436/2004

20032003 20042004

Feed in Tariff RegulationFeed in Tariff Regulation: : Evolution of onEvolution of on--Grid PV Grid PV InstallationsInstallations

Number of Installations 1.5541.554 3.2073.207

InstallationsInstallations

P ≤ 5kWp 1.498 3.0075 kWp < P ≤ 100 kWp 52 195

P> 100 kWp 4 5Installed Capacity (MWp)Installed Capacity (MWp) 1111 2222

P ≤ 5kWp 7 145 kWp < P ≤ 100 kWp 1 5

P> 100 kWp 3 3

Source:

0808

RD 661/2007

44 20052005 20062006 20072007GrowthGrowth

20032003 2007200720032003--20072007

77 5.2715.271 9.5339.533 14.5614.5677

837 % 837 %

7 4.552 6.703 8.561 471 %

713 2.851 5.988 11.415 %

6 9 18 350 %

4444 141141 356356 3.136%3.136%

21 32 40 471 %

20 103 289 28.800 %

3 6 27 800 %

National Energy Commission

2007 PRODUCTION OF CE2007 PRODUCTION OF CE

PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200

2007 PRODUCTION OF CE2007 PRODUCTION OF CECellsCells

ProductionProduction CCMWpMWp

PolysiliconPolysilicon 115,00115,00Thin FilmsThin Films n/an/aConcentrationConcentration n/an/aTOTALTOTAL 115 0115 0TOTALTOTAL 115,0115,0

2007 SPANISH PV INDUS2007 SPANISH PV INDUSSpanish Cell Production/WorlSpanish Cell Production/WorlSpanish Module Production/WSpanish Module Production/WSpanish Module Production/WSpanish Module Production/WSpanish Cell Capacity/World CSpanish Cell Capacity/World CSpanish Module Capacity/WoSpanish Module Capacity/Wo

LLS AND MODULES IN SPAINLLS AND MODULES IN SPAIN

0808

LLS AND MODULES IN SPAINLLS AND MODULES IN SPAINModulesModules

CapacityCapacity ProductionProduction CapacityCapacityMWpMWp MWpMWp MWpMWp

165,00165,00 149,53149,53 340,30340,30n/an/a n/an/a ¿20¿20--30?30?n/an/a 55 77

165 0165 0 154 5154 5 347 3347 3165,0165,0 154,5154,5 347,3347,3

STRY GLOBAL POSITIONSTRY GLOBAL POSITIONld Productionld Production 4%4%World ProductionWorld Production 5%5%World ProductionWorld Production 5%5%CapacityCapacity 10%10%rld Capacityrld Capacity 18%18%

Cost of the PV Solar Systems in SpainCost of the PV Solar Systems in Spain

2008 system p5,75,88

9

4,6

7

8

[€/W

p]

3

4

5

m c

ost

1

2

3

Syst

em

0

España Italia CoSpain Italy Kor

Higher system princes than in eqHigher system princes than in eq

prices estimate. Ground monted (1MWp)

3,74,1

,5,

orea Alemania c-Si Alemania LDrea Germany c-Si Germany TF

quivalent largequivalent large--scale PV Marketscale PV Market

PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200

New and Accumulated PVNew and Accumulated PV

700

New and Accumulated PVNew and Accumulated PV1.290 % over PE1.290 % over PE

600

500

300

400

MW

p

200

11,3 13,8 18,5 23,8 39,58,8

100

0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2

En años anteriores EAccumulated Capacity AEn años anteriores EAccumulated Capacity A

0808

V SystemsV SystemsV SystemsV SystemsR Target !!R Target !!

593 MWp593 MWp

425,8

165

35,6 58,923,3

106,1

2004 2005 2006 2007

n el añoAnnual increasen el añoAnnual increase

PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200

Photovoltaic Investment in SpaPhotovoltaic Investment in Spa(M(M€€))(( ))

Factories and Manufacturing:PV Installations and Systems: 2Stock Exchange: 2

TOTALTOTAL 5.5.

Spanish Photovoltaic SectoSpanish Photovoltaic Sectopp(M(M€€))

PV Installations and Systems:PV Installations and Systems:Sale of PV-Electricity:

TOTATOTATOTATOTA

ImportedImportedImportedImported

0808

ainain

4002.5002.100

.000.000

or Salesor Sales

7.5007.500250

ALAL 7.750 M7.750 M€€ALAL 7.750 M7.750 M€€

d Modules: 2.500 Md Modules: 2.500 M€€ !!!!d Modules: 2.500 Md Modules: 2.500 M€€ !!!!

PV 2008 Status in SpainPV 2008 Status in Spain

500

600

400

500

t (M

€) Accumulated Industrial IAccumulated Industrial IModule

300

400

estm

ent

January’ 99- December’ 07ModuleCompoManufac

Direct Investment (M€) 864

125 3200

ect I

nve Direct Investment (M€) 864

2007 Increase (M€) 486

125,370,1

24 2100

Dir

e

24,20

2002 2003 20042002 2003 2004At the

536,7

nvestments 1999nvestments 1999--20072007es and Installerses and onents ctures

Installers and Supply

IndustryTOTAL

4 6 69 168 933 84.6 69.168 933.86.4 50.3 536.7

69,7107,8

2005 2006 20072005 2006 2007En of the year

E l G tiE l G ti

PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200

Employ GenerationEmploy Generation

Spanish PV Industry J30.000

25.000

bs

6 292

10.

15.000

20.000

er o

f Job

3 6004.020

5.5256.292

10.000

Num

be

3.600

0

5.000

2002 2003 2004 2005

At the End of the Yea

0808

Job26 00026.000

645

2006 2007

ar

PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200

The Photovoltaic Paradox inThe Photovoltaic Paradox in

The risks oThe risks o

R D 157R.D. 157

0808

n Spain:n Spain:

of the successof the success

78/200878/2008

Spanish PV Regulatory and legaSpanish PV Regulatory and legaFeed in Tariff RegulFeed in Tariff RegulFeed in Tariff RegulFeed in Tariff Regul

-Determines a feed-in-tariff for PV,i fl ti t

InstalledInstalled II

inflation rates.

TariffTariff PowerPowerP P 100 kW100 kW 100 kW100 kW

First 25 Years(€cent/kWh)

44,0381

After 25 Years(€cent/kWh)

35,2305

- Cap Limit 371 MWp (PER). Revision of theis reached. Revisions will not retroactive.

- PER Objective reached in August 2008. Ongrid according to RD 661/2007. September 2

al Framework 2007al Framework 2007-- Sept 2008: Sept 2008: lation RD 661/2007lation RD 661/2007lation RD 661/2007lation RD 661/2007annual revision according with the

InstalledInstalled InstalledInstalledPowerPower

W <P< 10 MWW <P< 10 MWPowerPower

10 MW <P 10 MW <P 50 MW50 MW

41,7500 22,9764

33,4000 18,3811

e tariff every four years, or if PER objective

ne year to connect new installations to the2008, after that ….. .

Spanish PV FeedSpanish PV Feed--inin--Tariff sitTariff sitRD 661/2007 Why aRD 661/2007 Why aRD 661/2007. Why aRD 661/2007. Why a

ObjectivesObjectivesjjTo reach PER PV TargetsAdequate times for InvestmentAdequate times for Investment return.To support the Spanish PVTo support the Spanish PV Industry

RRResResFast growth butFeed-in-Tariff co

*C t d t i d b PER d i t*Cost determined by PER during tCost estimated during 2008: > 8

tuation at the End of 2006: tuation at the End of 2006: and consequencesand consequencesand consequences.and consequences.

Status September 2008Status September 2008Surpassed

Surpassed

Reached

ltltultsultst un-sustainableost out control*

h i d 2005 2010 500 M€he period 2005-2010: 500 M€00 M€

PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200PV Status in Spain at the beginning of 200

The Photovoltaic Paradox in SpThe Photovoltaic Paradox in Sp

1200

ear)

U t i bl2 22 2800

1000

(MW

p/ye Unsustainable

RD 6

2,22,242

400

600

Pow

er

RD 436/2004

RD 6

10 192611,8 23,3 106,1

200

400

nsta

lled

10 190

2004 2005 2006

In

Objetivo PERPER Targets

0808

pain: Effect on the Installationspain: Effect on the Installations

1000e

RD 1578/2008

C i i2 GWp2 GWp1000e

661/2007

Crisisor

Sustainability?

2 GWp2 GWp25,8

661/2007 Sustainability?

46 75 88 112

2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

Instalaciones EfectuadasActual PV Installations

Crisis o Sustainability?: CoCrisis o Sustainability?: CoPV 2008 Status in SpainPV 2008 Status in Spain

Cost of the Feed-in -

Crisis o Sustainability?: CoCrisis o Sustainability?: Co

1000M€Cost of the Feed in Average Retribution

* 30-09-2008

800 30 09 2008

** Estimated 31-12-2008Electricity Market Averag

36,74 39,91 4600

200

400

6,14 13,98 30

200

02004 2005

At the EnAt the En

ost of the PV’ Feedost of the PV’ Feed--in Tariffin Tariff

-Tarif (M€)

ost of the PV Feedost of the PV Feed--in Tariffin Tariff

100

Tarif (M€) for PV electricity (cent€kWh)

> 800 M€**80

wh

800 M€8e Price 6,6 cent€/kWh

42,75 43,38 45,2* 60

t€/k

w

193,46376,54*

20

40

cent

39,790

20

2006 2007 2008nd of the Year

0

nd of the Year

Establish: Two Class of InstallEstablish: Two Class of InstallEstablish: Two Class of InstallEstablish: Two Class of Install

Type I: Installations onType I: Installations on--roof, roof, facades, sound barriers, facades, sound barriers, pergolas, farms, ….. ., pergolas, farms, ….. .,

Typo II: OnTypo II: On--groundground

The size of the installation is dThe size of the installation is dinstallation connected to the sainstallation connected to the sainstallation connected to the sainstallation connected to the saelectricity to the gridelectricity to the grid

ations:ations:ations:ations:

Type I.1 PType I.1 P≤≤ 20 kW20 kWPPmaxmax 2 MW2 MWmaxmax

Type I.2 P> 20 kWType I.2 P> 20 kW

PPmax max 10 MW10 MW

etermined by the sum of all etermined by the sum of all ame point of evacuation of theame point of evacuation of theame point of evacuation of the ame point of evacuation of the

Establish:Establish:Establish:Establish:A PreA Pre--Assignation Register foAssignation Register focalls and timing for calls andcalls and timing for calls andcalls, and timing for calls andcalls, and timing for calls and

Establish:Establish:

Base power for the first yeaBase power for the first yea1st Call 15/10/20081st Call 15/10/2008--15/111/2015/111/20

Type I: 267/m MWpType I: 267/m MWp

Tipo II: 133/m MWpTipo II: 133/m MWpº l llº l llm= nº annual callsm= nº annual calls

or FIT quota. With four annual or FIT quota. With four annual definitive quota assignationsdefinitive quota assignations definitive quota assignations. definitive quota assignations.

r.r.008. Assignation 16/012009008. Assignation 16/012009

Type I 1: 10%Type I 1: 10%Type I.1: 10%Type I.1: 10%Type I.2: 90%Type I.2: 90%

Establish:Establish:

The economic regime of the PVThe economic regime of the PV

Establish:Establish:

The economic regime of the PVThe economic regime of the PV The FeedThe Feed--inin--Tariff for the 1Tariff for the 1stst cc

TypologyTypology

Type IType ISubtype I.1Subtype I.1

Subtype I 2Subtype I 2Subtype I.2Subtype I.2

Type IIType IIType IIType II

V installations ascribe to R DV installations ascribe to R DV installations ascribe to R.D. V installations ascribe to R.D. callcall

Tariff (cTariff (c€€/kWh)/kWh)34 0034 0034,0034,0032 0032 0032,0032,00

32 0032 0032,0032,00

Establish:Establish: The calculus of the tariff (TThe calculus of the tariff (Tnn))

i t d i thi t d i th

Establish:Establish:

power prepower pre--registered in the preregistered in the pre Correction by inflation is notCorrection by inflation is not Maximum time for perceptioMaximum time for perceptioIf PIf Pnn 11 ≥≥ 0,75xP0,75xP00 TTnn = T= Tnn 11 [(1[(1--AAIf PIf Pnn--11 ≥≥ 0,75xP0,75xP00 TTnn T Tnn--11 [(1[(1 AAIf PIf Pnn--11 < 0,75xP< 0,75xP00 TTnn = T= Tnn--11A = 0 9A = 0 91/m1/m; P; P power prepower pre--registered in the cregistered in the cA = 0,9A = 0,9 ; P; Pnn--11 power prepower pre--registered in the cregistered in the ccall ncall n--11..

On the best of the case POn the best of the case P

1(TT nn 1(

1

is determined by tariff and is determined by tariff and i ll (Ti ll (T PP ))evious call (Tevious call (Tnn--11 y Py Pnn--11) .) .

t determined.t determined.on 25 years.on 25 years.A) x (PA) x (P00 –– PPnn 11) / (0,25 x P) / (0,25 x P00) + A]) + A]A) x (PA) x (P00 PPnn--11) / (0,25 x P) / (0,25 x P00) A]) A]

call ncall n--1; P1; P quota of power assigned in thequota of power assigned in thecall ncall n--1; P1; P00 quota of power assigned in the quota of power assigned in the

PPoo= P= Pnn--1 . 1 . TTnn = 0,974 T= 0,974 Tnn--11

Thus PThus P nn = 1 026 P= 1 026 PThus PThus Poonn = 1,026 P= 1,026 P00

PPA n )()1 1/1A

PPPA n

)25,0()()1

0

10 mA /19,0;

Di tDi tDirect consequence:Direct consequence:

Tariff decrease aTariff decrease a¡¡ 2,6 %¡¡ 2,6 %¡¡¡¡annualannual

and quota arise :and quota arise :qq%/call !!%/call !!

10,0%10,0%

Di t M k t RDi t M k t RDirect consequence: Market ReDirect consequence: Market ReAnnual Installed Capacity in M

MWy

10001000

1200

MWpHistoric F

800

1000

-2,1%

501 500

400

600

0

200

0

2007 2008 200At the End of the Y

Source: LLBBW (02.2008), Merril Lync

XX% Market-Compound An

t i ti (2008t i ti (2008 2010)2010)estriction (2008estriction (2008--2010). 2010). MW

Forecast

Market

0400

09 2010Year

ch (01.2008), Photon Consulting (03.2008), ASIF (03.2008).

nnual Growth Rate (CAGR)

Consequence foresight: New mConsequence foresight: New mq gq gInstallation by Type

3%2% 3% 3%

64% 70%

31% 24%24%

2007 20082007 2008 94% of the installed power’ 08 co 70% with tracking 70% with tracking

market Structure.market Structure.

100%100%(MWp)

25% OnOn--roof (Flat cover)roof (Flat cover)

100%100%

15% OnOn--roof (Tilt cover)roof (Tilt cover)

30% OnOn--ground with trackingground with tracking

30% OnOn--ground fix structureground fix structure

2009

gg

2009orresponds to on-ground systems.

Source: Solarbuzz 2008 and J. Esteban :

Consequence foresight: New mConsequence foresight: New m

Installations by System Siz

q gq g

501 1000

y y

91% 93%

1%8% 5%

1%1%

1%

2007 20082007 2008 93% of the installed power’ 08 co

market Structure.market Structure.

ze (MW)500 100%100%

( )

33% > 1MW)> 1MW)

40% 100 kW < 1MW100 kW < 1MW

18% 10kW < 100kW10kW < 100kW9%

2009

< 10 kW< 10 kW

2009orresponds to systems > 1MWp.

Source: Solarbuzz 2008 and J. Esteban:

Consequence foresight: Less inConsequence foresight: Less inConsequence foresight: Less inConsequence foresight: Less inProduction Capacity* Productio*Estimated acording RD 661/2007Estimated acording RD 661/2007.**According to RD 1578/2008 (Po =Pn-1)*** RD 1578/2008 +60 MWp (2009) and + 30 MW

1074

16

647819

1074835

573425 500***425

2007 2008 2009e

BE: Delocalization of Production and SME: Restriction for market access

Source: Spanish As

ndustryndustryndustry.ndustry.on* Annual quota ( Po = Pn-1)**

18031984Wp (2010) on-ground

6391803

15231385

1179

587532490***

2010e 2011e 2012e

d Investment: China, Italy, Portugal, ..s.

ssociation of Photovoltaic Enterprise

Consequence foresight: RestricConsequence foresight: RestricConsequence foresight: RestricConsequence foresight: Restric

Accumulated PV PowerAccumulated PV Power

00MWp

High SceSignificanthe Indus

00

00

p the Indus

Medium As Nowa

6341800

00

00

Low SceG th

0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

201

Growth r

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

At the end of the year

ProposePropose

ction of the Growthction of the Growthction of the Growthction of the Growth

PV quota of

Scenario2020

MW/yearInstalledAverage

Electricity Generation in

2010 g

enario (20 GW)nt development of stry

1500 MW 6,0%stry

Scenario (11 GW)adays 800MW 3.5%

nario (7 GW)t i ti

500 MW 2.2%01

820

1920

20

estriction2 2

ed byed by Equivalente R.D. 1578/2008 Equivalente R.D. 1578/2008

Consequence foresight: DiminutionConsequence foresight: DiminutionConsequence foresight: DiminutionConsequence foresight: Diminution

18 NET IRR (%)

16Fix +

14Fix +

O

Thin Film

12

Thin FilmNew FIT

10Tracking +

New8

New

Fix + crystallineNew FIT

64 4,5 5 5

New FIT

System CSource: SunTo

n of the profit or costs reductionn of the profit or costs reductionn of the profit or costs reduction.n of the profit or costs reduction.

Tracking + crystallineTracking + crystallineOld FIT

crystallinecrystallineOld FIT

+ crystallinew FITw FIT

5,5 6 6,5 7,5

Cost €/kWpool for a ground 100 kWp project in Seville and PVSYS irradiation

Consequence foresight: DiminutionConsequence foresight: DiminutionConsequence foresight: DiminutionConsequence foresight: DiminutionTariff R.D. 661/2007

ModulesModules SystemSystemIntegraIntegraBOSBOS

New Tariff

--9%9% --9%9% --35%35%

ModulesModules SystemSystemBOSBOSModulesModules IntegratiIntegratiBOSBOS

*Grid connection, Insurance, Administrative costs, … .**Installation place equivalent to Athens

n of the profit or costs reductionn of the profit or costs reductionn of the profit or costs reduction.n of the profit or costs reduction.

Installation Price: 6 Installation Price: 6 €€/Wp/WpTariff: 0,455 Tariff: 0,455 €€kWhkWh

IRR: 12,40%**IRR: 12,40%**mmtiontion

EngineeringEngineering&&

Others*Others*OthersOthers

--50%50% --20%20%

Installation Price: 4,8 Installation Price: 4,8 €€/Wp/WpTariff: 0,455 Tariff: 0,455 €€kWhkWh

EngineeringEngineering&& ,,

IRR: 10,47%**IRR: 10,47%**onon &&Others*Others*

OnOn--roofroofmm--Si ModulesSi Modules

J. Esteban:

ConclusionsConclusions (1/2)(1/2)Change of mind sets: frmarket to a sustainable framarket to a sustainable fra

Costs reduction.

Improvement of PV systems cintegration… .

Change of perception of th Elimination of caps for installe

Links between annual installe

The new magic formula:

Links between annual installe

The new magic formula:

C: The new P

rom an uncontrolledameworkamework

concepts :Size, application,

he System Authorities.ed power.

ed power and tariff variation.

nPP0

ed power and tariff variation.

cn

n

TT

0

0

PV “charmed” particle C ≥1 o C< 1

ConclusionsConclusions (2/2)(2/2) Photovoltaics is still a sustaThe key, lower cost and introduThe key, lower cost and introdu

FeedFeed--inin--TariffTariffR.D. 661/2007R.D. 661/2007

For Instance:For Instance:

Price of Price of th tth t IRRIRRthe systemthe system IRRIRR

xx--SiSi 6 6 €€/Wp/Wp 12,1812,18

Thin FilmThin FilmThin FilmThin Film(CdTe)(CdTe)

5,2 5,2 €€/Wp/Wp 17,4817,48

ainable and profitable business:uction of new concepts.uction of new concepts.

New tariffNew tariffR.D. 1578/2008R.D. 1578/2008

RRPrice of Price of

thethe IRRIRRRRSystemSystem

IRRIRR

8 %8 % 4,8 4,8 €€/Wp/Wp 10,47 %10,47 %

8 %8 % 4,6 4,6 €€/Wp/Wp 12,40 %12,40 %J. Esteban:

Who was the “stupid”, which tWho was the “stupid”, which tPATT

n ()1( 10

The Answer: He was very clever.P

TT nn 25,0(

()( 01

the “famous” EPIA Learning Curve”

If we can follow the EPIA slope: If we can follow the EPIA slope:

,( ratioePerformancfIRR

,,( coscos tt

ratio

OonInstallatiModulefIRR

If: Yes WE CAN !! Then

But, Two more questions:

If: Yes, WE CAN !! Then

, q Is it possible always the follo

Is it possible another “Sink Cformerly Spain, with extremely

hough the “famous” formula ?hough the “famous” formula ?

APn )1 mA /19010

ulo

(€/W

p)

Escenarios de precios EPIA1

10

100

0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Prec

io d

el M

ódul

o (€

/Wp)

20% disminución del precio Hasta 2003. Por acumulación del doble de potencia instalad

HistóricoPrevisión10

ulo

(€/W

p)

Escenarios de precios EPIA1

10

100

0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Prec

io d

el M

ódul

o (€

/Wp)

20% disminución del precio Hasta 2003. Por acumulación del doble de potencia instalad

HistóricoPrevisión

The real guilty is

AP

n

))

0

1 mA /19,0;

0

1

1 10 100 1000 10000

Prec

io d

el m

ódu

1,1 GWp/a2004

3,3 GWp/a2010

31 GWp/a2020

300 GWp/a2030

Factor de experiencia15%

18%

MWp Instalados acumulados

0

1

1 10 100 1000 10000

Prec

io d

el m

ódu

1,1 GWp/a2004

3,3 GWp/a2010

31 GWp/a2020

300 GWp/a2030

Factor de experiencia15%

18%

MWp Instalados acumulados

CostGWp instalados acumuladosGWp instalados acumulados

)o

InstalledP

)& ,cost

o

MO

Business (€)Business (€)

ow up of the learning curve?

Country” of PV Modules, like advantageous FIT?