Status of the RCM climate change simulations

ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM

ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM

Max 3-day precip (mm) MPIM RCM and ECA Data

Evaluation of RCM simulations with HOAPS satellite data

Biases of all ERA40 and GCM driven RCM simulations over sea investigated – see poster 27Liquid + ice water, water vapour, precipitation, net longwave radiation, sensible and latent heat flux.

All results soon on RT3 webpage

From RT3:

● Validated set of RCMs

● Weights for RCMs

● Suggestions how to use the weights for climate change runs

RT2B1 GCM-RCM Matrix

Global modelRegional model

METO-HC MPIMET IPSL CNRM NERSC CGCM3Total number

METO-HC 1950-2100*** 1950-2100 4MPIMET 1950-2100 1950-2050* 2

CNRM 1950-2050 1

DMI 1950-2050* 1950-2100 2ETH 1950-2050 1KNMI 1950-2100 1ICTP 1950-2100 1

SMHI 1950-2050*1950-2050* (50km)

1950-2100 3

UCLM 1950-2050 1

C4I 1950-2100*1950-2050*(A2)

2

GKSS** 1950-2050* 1Met.No** 1950-2050* 1CHMI** 1950-2050* 1OURANOS** 1950-2050* 1Total (1950-2050)

7 7 2 3 2 1 22

*: non-contractual runs**: affiliated partners without obligations***: 3 simulations with the perturbed physics METO-HC GCM

Institute Runs completed resp. expected date

Runs transferred to the RCM database resp. expected date

METO-HC HC pert. phys. (3 runs): completed

MPI-M Forcing:?

Transferred

End 2008 (latest Aug. 2009)MPI-M MPI-M Forcing: completed Transferred

CNRM Completed Transferred

DMI CNRM Forcing:? Partly

ETH Completed Transferred

KNMI Completed Transferred

ICTP Completed Transferred

SMHI NERSC Forcing: Completed ?

UCLM Completed Transferred

Status of obligatory 25km scenario simulations

The RT2B1 Quick-Look Analysis

Objectives of the ”Quick look analysis”:

To monitor the scenario simulations progress and quality of the RT2B RCM scenario simulations

To provide very fast first information on the results of the RCM scenarios

The quick look analysis is focusing on trends and variability

Variables: 2m Temperature, Precipitation, EvaporationAreas: 8 Prudence Regions

Yearly and Seasonal meansAnnual cycle for each decade

The „Quick-Look“ Analysis has recently been extended: Separate land and water driving GCM‘s Inclusion of the gridded RT5 observational dataset

Plots on the ENSEMBLES RT3 webpage will be updated soon!

MPIM RCM, T and P changes for DJF

MPIM RCM, T and P changes for JJA

JJA mean warming wrt 1961-1990

Erich Fischer (2008)

4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I 8 PRU RCMs

IAC ETH

Daily temperature variability in JJA wrt 1961-1990

Erich Fischer (2008)

4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I 8 PRU RCMs

IAC ETH

JJA diurnal temperature range wrt 1961-1990

Erich Fischer (2008)

4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I 8 PRU RCMs

IAC ETH

From RT2B1:

Set of transient simulations for SRES A1B scenario for 1950 to 2050 (22), some extended until 2100 (10)

Data at DMI data base

In RT2B:

From RT2B1 and RT3:

matrix with RCM data and RCM weights available (incl suggestion for their use)

Joint pdfs will be calculated for use in RT6 …

Assessment of impacts through eg the calculation of indices

Assessment of changes in climate, extremes Assessment of changes in climate, extremes and associated sectoral impacts using high and associated sectoral impacts using high

resolution regional climate model scenarios for resolution regional climate model scenarios for the Eastern Mediterraneanthe Eastern Mediterranean

Giannakopoulos C.(1), E. Kostopoulou(1), K.Tolika(2), C.Anagnostopoulou(2), P.Maheras(2), K.Tziotziou(1)

(1) Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Greece

(2) Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece

MethodMethod

Within the framework of the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project several RCMs runs have been produced at a high horizontal resolution (25km).

The control run represents the base period 1961-1990 and is used here as reference for comparison with future predictions for periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 based on A1B SRES scenario

Aim is to examine climatic changes in both mean (temperature, precipitation) and extremes (number of heat wave days, number of tropical nights, drought length) in order to identify areas that are likely to undergo large amount of climate change

Summer Maximum temperatures, Summer Maximum temperatures, KNMI RCMKNMI RCM

In summer, maximum temperatures increase by 1.8-2.2oCfor the 2021-2050 simulation and by 4-6oCfor 2071-2100

Greece and North Africa will have a more intense heating during 2021-2050 whereas Turkey will have equally intense

heating during both periods

No of tropical nights : Tmin>20No of tropical nights : Tmin>20ooC C KNMI RCMKNMI RCM

Tropical nights increase more in costal areas

1-2 more months with warm nights around the islands and North Africa for 2021-2050

2.5-3 more months with warm nights around the islands and North Africa for 2021-2050

Dry spell length Dry spell length KNMI RCMKNMI RCM

for the 2021-2050 simulation increases of about 7% (of about 10 days more) are apparent

for the 2071-2100 the increase varies between 12% (about 15 days more) in the east part and 25% (about 1 month more) in

the west part of the island.