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Reports & Research

Tennessee Education Lottery Scholarship Program Annual Report

Purpose

The report provides an overview of…

• Revenues & Expenditures

• Student demographics and trends

• Scholarship renewal rates and trends

• Retention rates and trends

• Graduation rates and trends

Tennessee Education Lottery Scholarship (TELS) Program

• Merit-based, lottery-funded scholarship program;

• Implemented in 2004;

• Program reached maturity in 2008-09;

• Primarily serves traditional-aged students;

• Unique in that it has a need-based component;

• Students can now use the award for summer (began

Summer 2012)

Section 1: Program Overview

Lottery Revenues & Expenditures, Fiscal Years 2008-09 to 2012-13

2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013(Projected)

$250

$260

$270

$280

$290

$300

$310

$320

$330

$340

$350

265.5

276

281.8

310.3313.5

294.8

292.6

307.2

323.2 324.4

285.5

293.9 300.2

326.8 327

(in m

illio

ns)

RevenueExpendituresRevenue w/ Interest

Lottery for Education Reserve at June 30, Fiscal Years 2003-04 through 2011-12

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-120

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

6 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 100

115

202

315

385 408

322 323 316

273

1

4

6

10 13

General Shortfall Reserve Lottery for Education Account Local Government Reserve

Fiscal Year

($)

in M

illio

ns 255

371

445471

372 373 366

122

373

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-120

20

40

60

80

100

120

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

40 56 67 76 88 97 102 103

$93

$137

$192

$226

$260

$284 $298

$313

Students Dollars

(in t

hous

ands

)

(in m

illio

ns)

Recipients and Expenditures, 2004-05 through 2011-12

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

$0$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500

$3,000$3,300

$3,800$4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000

$1,500 $1,650$1,900 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000

4-year 2-year

Max

imum

Aw

ard

Am

ount

HOPE Max Award (Fall & Spring Only), 2004-05 to 2012-13

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-130%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

71% 71%

78%77%

72%

67%

63%

57%54%

68% 69%

77% 76%72%

67%

62%

57%54%

4-year

2-year

HOPE Max Award as a % of Average Tuition & Fees at Public Institutions, 2004-05 to 2012-13

Section 2: First-time Freshmen Recipient

Demographics

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

36% 36% 36% 35% 35% 36% 36% 36% 34%

22% 20% 22% 22% 21% 23% 21% 22% 23%

26%27% 26% 26% 27% 25% 26% 26% 28%

15% 17% 16% 17% 17% 17% 17% 16% 16%

20,449 19,660

21,425 22,825 23,320

24,463 24,149 24,680 24,404

TBR Universities TBR Community Colleges UT CampusesPrivate Colleges Total

TELS First-time Freshmen Cohort Year

% o

f TEL

S Fi

rst-

time

Fres

hmen

Enr

olle

d by

Sys

tem

# of

TEL

S Fi

rst-

time

Fres

hmen

Growth of TELS FTF and distribution of TELS FTF by system, Fall 2004 – Fall 2012

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

67%69%

81% 82%

42% 44%

89%96%

UT Campuses

TBR Univ.

Total

TBR CC

TELS freshmen as a percent of all FTF by system, Fall 2004-2012

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

66%62%

5% 6%

28%30%

1% 1%

HOPE

ASPIRE

GAMS

ACCESS

Distribution of TELS FTF by scholarship program, Fall 2004 – Fall 2012

Distribution of TELS FTF by scholarship program, Fall 2004 – Fall 2012

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

66%68%

62% 62%

5% 6%

28%24%

31% 30%

1% 1%

HOPE

ASPIRE

GAMS

ACCESSACCESS

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

12% 12%

83%78%

5% 9%

Cau-casian

African American

Other

TELS FTF freshmen by ethnicity, Fall 2004-2012

(74%)

(21%)

Median family AGI of TELS FTF by Race (2012 dollars), Fall 2004 – Fall 2012

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 $-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$40,648

$31,435

$75,931

$71,541

$60,834

$51,065

$71,575

$64,884

Cau-casian

Total

Other

African American

= 40,106 = 35,283

Total Male Female Caucasian African AmericanALL Gender Race/Ethnicity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

60% 61%59%

64%

36%

29%

22%

34%

25%

52%

11%

16%

7%11% 11%

1% 1% 1% 1% 2%

GPA and ACT GPA Only ACT Only Unknown

Proportion of HOPE & ASPIRE FTF by initial qualifications met, gender, and ethnicity, Fall 2012

Section 3: Scholarship Renewal

24 48 72 96Cumulative Credit Hours (Attempted)

3.00

2.75

Cu

mula

tive C

olle

ge G

PA

Provisional Track(3.0 Term GPA also

required)

Scholarship Renewal Requirement

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

51%

58%

90%92%

41%46%

23%

17%

50%56%

GAMS

HOPE

Total

ASPIRE

ACCESS

1st to 2nd Year Scholarship Renewal Rates by Program, Fall 2004 – Fall 2011 TELS FTF

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

49% 51%

40% 42%

55%

69%

59%62%

50%

56%

UT Cam-puses

Private Colleges

Total

TBR Univ.

TBR CCs

1st to 2nd Year Scholarship Renewal Rates by System, Fall 2004 – Fall 2011 TELS FTF

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

64%66%

43% 44%

25%22%20%

31%

48%

54%

Both

Total

GPA Only

Unknown

ACT Only

1st to 2nd Year Scholarship Renewal Rates by Qualifications Met, Fall 2004 – Fall 2011 TELS FTF

Total

Over $96,000

84,001-96,000

72,001-84,000

60,001-72,000

48,001-60,000

36,001-48,000

24,001-36,000

12,001-24,000

$12,000 and below

Unknown

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

56%

67%

61%

59%

57%

57%

55%

49%

45%

46%

38%

1st to 2nd Year Scholarship Renewal Rates by AGI, Fall 2011 TELS FTF

1st to 2nd Year Scholarship Renewal Rates by H.S. GPA and ACT Composite, Fall 2011 TELS FTF

Section 4: Retention for TELS FTF who Lost the

Scholarship during their 1st Year

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

69%

60%

55%

58%

54%53%56%

65%

58%

HOPE GAMS ASPIRE Access Total

1st to 2nd Year Retention Rates for TELS FTF that Lost Scholarship in 1st Year

by Program, Fall 2004 – Fall 2011

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

66%

59%

69%

60%63%

52%

63%

53%

65%

58%

Both GPA Only ACT Only Unknown Total

1st to 2nd Year Retention Rates for TELS FTF (HOPE & ASPIRE) that Lost Scholarship in 1st Year by Qualifications Met, Fall 2004 – Fall 2011

Section 5: Graduation with Scholarship

2004 2005 2006 20070%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

31%

36% 35% 35%

72%74%

79% 79%

32%

36% 36% 36%

21%

27% 26% 26%

8%5%

8% 8%

Total GAMS HOPE ASPIRE ACCESS

5-year Graduation Rates with Scholarship Intact by Scholarship Type, Fall 2004 - Fall 2007 Cohorts

2004 2005 2006 20070%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

28%

34% 33% 33%

42%45% 44% 44%

21%23% 22% 23%

11%

15% 14% 12%

6%10%

11% 12%

Total GPA and ACT GPA Only ACT Only Unknown

5-year Graduation Rates with Scholarship Intact by Initial Qualifications Met (HOPE & ASPIRE

only), Fall 2004 – Fall 2007 Cohorts

Section 5: 6-yr Graduation with

or without Scholarship

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

58%

89%

61%

48%

34%

Total GAMS HOPE ASPIRE ACCESS

6-year graduation rates by scholarship type, Fall 2006 cohort

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

58%

70%

70%

55%

42%TBR CC

TBR Univ.

UT

Private Institutions

Total

6-year graduation rates by system, Fall 2006 cohort

2004 2005 20060%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

54%

58% 57%

67% 68% 67%

49%51%

49%

34%

39%36%

30%33%

45%

Total Both GPA Only ACT Only Unknown

6-year graduation rates by initial qualifications met (HOPE & ASPIRE), Fall 2004 – Fall 2006 cohorts

FTF Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 60%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.285787631271879 0.3532322053675610.502543757292882 0.584924154025671

100%

54%

44%

39%

16%

81%

72%

67%

45%

6-yr Grad Rate5-yr

Grad Rate

Grad Rateon

TELS4-yr Grad

Rate

Scholar-ship Re-

newal Rate

RetentionRate

6-yr Grad Rate5-yr

Grad Rate

Grad Rateon

TELS4-yr Grad

Rate

Scholar-ship Re-

newal Rate

Longitudinal Scholarship Renewal, Retention, and Graduation Rates, Fall 2006 TELS FTF

Report will be available at: http://tn.gov/thec/Legislative/Reports.html under the “2013 Legislative/Reports Section.”

Questions?