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Wind energy Stefan Karlsson Global Segment Manager, Renewable Energy Capital Markets Day 2009
Wind energy
Stefan Karlsson
Global Segment Manager, Renewable Energy
Capital Markets Day 2009
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
The dynamicwind energy market
Wind energy business development snapshot
Global Wind Power StatusCumulative MW by end of 2002, 2005 & 2008
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Europe USA Asia Rest of World2002 (32,037 MW) 2005 (59,399 MW) 2008 (122,158 MW)Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2009
Year: Installed MW Increase % Cumulative MW Increase %2003 8,344 40,3012004 8,154 -2% 47,912 19%2005 11,542 42% 59,399 24%2006 15,016 30% 74,306 25%2007 19,791 32% 94,005 27%2008 28,190 42% 122,158 30%
27.6% 24.8%Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2009
Average growth - 5 years
Global Wind Power ForecastCumulative MW by end of 2007 & Forecast 2012
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Europe USA Asia Rest of World
2008 (122,158 MW) 2013 (343,153 MW)Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2009
Wind development activity is shifting from Europe to North America and Asia-Pacific. By 2020, Europe is expected to account for 27% of new capacity added worldwide, compared to 31% for North America and 42% for Asia-Pacific.
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
Wind energy market development
Actual
2003-2008
Trend
Next
12 months
Trend
After 12 months and
forward
Wind energy
Globally
• Speed of growth globallyexpected to fall from >30% to around 10% during 2009.
Europe • Limited effect on investments by credit crunch.
North America
• Delay in new windfarm projects2009 due to limited financing. ARRA expected to give effect by Q4 2009.
AsianMarkets
• Explosive growth continuing in China. India suffering from effectsof financial crisis.
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+++ ++ +++
+++
+++
+++
+++=
+++ annual growth > 15%++ annual growth 10 to 15%+ annual growth 5 to 10%= 0 to + 5%- annual decline 0 to -5%
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
The macroeconomy effects on wind energy
• Wind energy at an early stage of a long term growth phase, business fundamentals for the industry are strong. Long term growth >20%/year.
• The present credit crunch has resulted in postponement and cancellationof some externally financed windfarm projects, mainly in USA and India.
• Manufacturers affected by this downturn are mainly producers with high exposure in the US market, as well as their sub-system suppliers.
• The recently approved stimulus package for the US economy, includingareas for renewable energy, will create renewed dynamic growth;– ”American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009”
– Proposed legislation for USD 20 billion in tax cuts to support growth of renewableenergy, including a multiyear extenstion of PTC. (Production Tax Credit)
– A total of USD 8 billion proposed to be allocated for Renewable Energy Loan Guarantees.
• MRO-service market not affected – windfarm service activities as normal
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
Expectations of a quick business recovery
Source: Vestas annual report 2008
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
Globalisation of wind energy market
• Environmentally concerns, security of fuel supply and demand for additional electricity output are driving the establishment of renewable energy support systems in several new markets.
• Windturbine manufacturing base expanding rapidly from a few countries, to form a truly global market.
• China has in just a few years expanded to become the global market leader of wind turbines in a few years.
• Korea on the brink of taking off as a major windturbinemanufacturing base, Canada and Latinamerica to follow.
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
“Exploding” China wind energy market
Installed capacity in China
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
MW
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Cum
ulat
ive
MW
MW Cumulative MWInstalled MWForecast
National targets
2020
2010already passedduring 2007
Most likelypassedduring 2011
2030100,000 MWMost likelypassedbefore 2020
Source: BTM report November 2008
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
SKF in wind energy
SKF contribution to wind turbine technology
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
Pitch bearings
Yaw bearingMainshaft housingsand locknuts
ConditionMonitoringWindCon/WebCon
Couplings
Automatic distributedlubrication system
Monitoring and diagnosticsservices
Mechanical repairs &refurbishment
Sealing solutions
EngineeringConsultancyServices
Plain bearings
Maintenancetools and grease
Gearbox bearingsTRB/CRB/SRB/CARB/DRTRB
Generator bearingsDGBB/InsoCoated/Hybrid
Mainshaft bearing(s)SRB/CARB/TRB/DRTRB
Bolt tensioning toolsTower alignment services
SKF is a supplier to all major manufacturers
Wind turbine manufacturers (global ranking)Rank Manufaturer Homebase MW-output 2008
1 Vestas Denmark 5,5812 GE-Wind USA 5,2393 Gamesa Spain 3,3734 Enercon Germany 2,8065 Suzlon India 2,5266 Siemens Denmark 1,9477 Sinovel China 1,4038 Acciona Spain 1,2909 Goldwind China 1,132
10 Nordex Germany 1,07511 Dong Fang China 1,05312 REpower Germany 943
Wind-gearbox manufacturers (global ranking)Rank Manufaturer Homebase
1 Winergy Germany2 Hansen Belgium3 Bosch-Rexroth Germany4 Moventas Finland5 Nanjing GC China
Source: BTM Consult ApS March 2009:
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
SKF business development beyond market growth
Annual Wind Power DevelopmentActual 1990-2008 & Forecast 2009-2013
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990 1995 2000 2008 2013
MW
Europe USA Asia Rest of World ExistingSource: BTM Consult ApS - March 2009
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
Recent SKF market launches - wind energy industry
New pitch bearingdesign with improvedcorrosion protection
DRTRB-unit Nautilus™with segmented cagefor minimized friction
New CRB-design withextra-high carrying capacityfor wind-gearboxes.
XL Hybrid bearingswith ceramic ballsfor superior insulation
SKF WindCon 3.0/WebconIntranet supervisedcondition monitoring
Automatic centralizedlubrication kits for reduced maintenance cost
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
Business Case: SKF Nautilus™
The new wind-mainshaft DRTRB-unit Nautilus™
Patented segmented PEEK cage developed by SKF.
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
The unique benefits of SKF Nautilus™
The SKF test-rig for the large
mainshaft ”Nautilus™” bearing.
Nautilus™ key features;• Designed for heavy, complex loads.• Only pure torque load is being
transmitted to the drivetrain.• Segmented cage for improved
performance also under misalignment.• Extremely low friction coefficient.• Can be either oil or grease lubricated• Available for cold-climate locations
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
Milestones in Nautilus™ business development
• Developed to fulfill the challenging conditions and the specific requirements for a radical new turbine design (2002-2003).
• Officially market launched also for other turbine models (2005).
• 3 different windturbine manufacturers selected Nautilus™ as mainshaftarrangement for new turbine models (2006).
• 12 different windturbine models with Nautilus™ selected. Customers in Denmark, Germany, Belgium, Italy, India, Japan, China and Korea (2008).
• Several new upcoming windturbine models evaluating Nautilus™ (2009).
• Manufacturing capacity expansion in Schweinfurt, Germany and investment decision to start up manufacturing in Dalian, China (2009).
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
SKF Intelligence Center Wind
Intelligence Center Wind, a service concept by SKF
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
• Condition Monitoring Systems• Remote Condition Monitoring
analysis services • “Top of turbine” repairs• Engineering projects • Spare part management• Reconditioning services• Improved return on capital
employed in windfarms.
Present status;Remote monitoring of >600wind turbines all over the worldfrom ICW Hamburg center.
SKF Windfarm Service (ICW) • Europe-NAM-Asia
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
Summary & Conclusions
Renewable energy high on the agendas
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
”15% in 2020” ”20% by 2020”(some 34% of electricity)
*14% renewables in electricity 2006Actual: 7% renewables in 2007 Actual: 8% renewables in 2007
”10% in 2012””25% in 2025”
*) target on all prime energy
Key business message
• Speed of growth of wind energy industry temporarilyslowing down to some 10% during 2009. Back to ”normal”predicted already during 2010.
• Quick globalisation of the industry at present. New manufacturers in emerging markets. SKF already in place.
• SKF is well positioned with most leading manufacturers. • Nautilus™ well received by the market. Massive business
growth foreseen with Nautilus™ on new turbine models.• Intelligence Center Wind is positioning SKF as a partner
and a competence provider in windfarm service market. • SKF is actively involved in the development of the wind-
turbine technology of the future (onshore and offshore).
19 May 2009 © SKF Group
