CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL Steve Paulone Facilitator
Transcript
Slide 1
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Steve Paulone Facilitator
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Standard Deviation in Risk Measurement Expected returns on
investments are derived from various numerical results from a
business which are collected over time.The distribution in any
large sample or population becomes a normal distribution (bell
curve).
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Bell Curve (Normal Distribution) All data points fall under the
curve. The average response is also the most numerous and it falls
in the center of the distribution (mean=median=mode). Since the
majority of responses are expected at the median (middle) this
becomes the point from which we measure deviation from and the
spread of that deviation is called the standard deviation (sigma).
As we deviate from the median (50% mark) we move farther away from
the average or expected outcome.
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Standard Deviation The mean (expected value) is the sum of the
expected values times the probability of occurrence. The standard
deviation is the square root of the sum of the possible values for
a variable minus the expected value times the probability of
occurrence of the variable squared.
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Standard Deviation (Beta) One way to measure risk is to compute
the standard deviation of a variables distribution of possible
values. The standard deviation is a numerical indicator of how
widely dispersed the possible values are around a mean. The more
widely dispersed a distribution is, the larger the standard
deviation, and the greater the probability that the value of a
variable will be greatly different than the expected value. The
standard deviation, then, indicates the likelihood that an outcome
different from what is expected will occur.
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Beta & CAPM things to consider Market or systematic risk:
risk related to the macro economic factor or market index
Unsystematic or firm specific risk: risk not related to the macro
factor or market index unique risk Total risk = Systematic +
Unsystematic (Unique) Greater levels of risk aversion lead to
larger proportions of the risk free rate Lower levels of risk
aversion lead to larger proportions of the portfolio of risky
assets Willingness to accept high levels of risk for high levels of
returns would result in leveraged combinations
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Beta Beta is nondiversifiable risk from the marketplace. It is
understood that the marketplace has a beta of 1.0 as the ultimate
group of diversified assets. Risk-free portfolios have a beta of 0
since the return does not deviate from expectation. The more return
of the portfolio fluctuates relative to the market the higher the
beta. Companies with risk equal to the marketplace will have a beta
of 1 while those that are less risky than the market will be lower
than 1 and those with more risk will be higher than 1.
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CAPM The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to
calculate the appropriate required rate of return for an investment
project given a degree of risk as measured by beta.
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Assumptions of the CAPM Investors evaluate portfolios by
looking at the expected returns and standard deviations of the
portfolio over a one period horizon. Investors are never satisfied.
When given portfolios with the same standard deviation they will
choose the one with higher return. Investors are risk averse When
given portfolios with the same return they will choose the one with
lower standard deviation. There is a risk-free rate at which an
investor may either lend (that is invest) or borrow money. The risk
free rate is the same for all investors. Information is freely and
instantly available to all investors. Investors have homogeneous
expectations about returns, standard deviation and covariance of
securities.
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CAPM The three factors to consider in this equation are: The
risk-free rate of return The required rate of return on the overall
market the investments beta (risk) You remember from previous
discussions that the risk-free rate is the rate of return investors
demand for a no risk investment usually represented by US long term
treasury Notes and inflation. The required rate of return of the
overall market minus the risk free rate represents the additional
return required by investors for investing in the market. Called
the market risk premium.
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CAPM Beta = nondiversifiable risk or systematic risk So to
compute the CAPM we: Risk free rate + [(market risk - risk free
rate) x beta] The CAPM helps measure portfolio risk and the return
an investor can expect for taking that risk.