Keynote Lecture, APLA 2013 Conference

Shape the Future: Smarter, Better and Faster18th-22nd November, Thailand, Chiang Mai, Shangri-la Hotel.

Sun Tzu Art of Warfor Contemporary Business

What is one of the most shocking

contemporary business cases?

Is Batista [$34 Billionaire] really busting?World’s eighth richest man, World News.

(Source: Wikipedia)

Page 62, November 2nd-8th 2013 Issue of the Economist

“…OGX oil-and-gas firm at heart of…

Eike BatistaBrazil’s richest manfiled for bankruptcy protection…”

The IPO brochure issued for listing must have been convincing:The IPO brochure issued for listing must have been convincing:The IPO brochure issued for listing must have been convincing:The IPO brochure issued for listing must have been convincing:raising 6.7 billion reais and OGX market capitalizationraising 6.7 billion reais and OGX market capitalizationraising 6.7 billion reais and OGX market capitalizationraising 6.7 billion reais and OGX market capitalization

in 2010, 75 billion reais. Alas oil fields turn out to be duds!in 2010, 75 billion reais. Alas oil fields turn out to be duds!in 2010, 75 billion reais. Alas oil fields turn out to be duds!in 2010, 75 billion reais. Alas oil fields turn out to be duds!

If you have decided to invest

all your money in OGX during listing

(2008, Brazil’s largest IPO),

you will have lost everything:

“…stock market valuation 99% down

from the peak and its bonds

trading at 8% of face value…”

My talk today is about Sun Tzu Art of War in

Contemporary Business: focusing on decision.

You can visit my website:

suntzuinstitute.com

PhD ( Strategy; St Andrews, UK)

MBA (Finance, The City University of London

Postgraduate Award Winner)

LLB (Honors, London)

Barrister-at-Law (Lincoln’s Inn)

Advocate & Solicitor (Singapore)

FCCA, UK (Association of Certified Chartered Accountant)

FCMA, UK (Chartered Management Accountant)

FCIM, UK (Chartered Institute of Marketing)

CPA (Certified Public Accountant, Singapore)

ACIS, (Chartered Secretary, UK)

Cert-in-Productivity (Japan Productivity Center, Tokyo)Prior to becoming an academic, he had been

Operations Officer, 1st Signals Battalion, SAF,

Industrial Relations Adviser, SNEF, Manager

(Legal & Personnel), ABN Bank, Project Manager (Contract

&Finance), Kloeckner Industrie Analagen, Assistant Director

(Planning) & Management Trainer (Strategy), National Productivity

Board, Fellow (Professor Kurosawa), JPC(日本生産性本部日本生産性本部日本生産性本部日本生産性本部) Tokyo.

Professional Background

Retired NTU as tenured Assoc Professor, System

Engineering & Management, Aerospace &

Mechanical Engineering, he had held 2004-2011

Chair of Strategy and Honorary Professorship,

University of St Andrews, (1411), Scotland and

Visiting Professorships: Visiting Distinguished

Professor of Finance, City University of New York,

Visiting Professor, New York Institute of

Technology, Honorary Research Professor,

Copenhagen

Business College, Denmark, Consulting Professor,

INSEAD, Adjunct Professor, Korean Solbridge

Business School, ASEAN Distinguished Professor,

University of Malaya, Visiting Professor

(Coaching), University of Technology Malaysia,

Visiting Professor, UMEA, Sweden, Visiting

Professor, Zhong-Shan DaXue 中山大學中山大學中山大學中山大學 Visiting

Professor Beijing Central University of Finance

and Economics,中央財經大學中央財經大學中央財經大學中央財經大學, Visiting

Professor, Singapore Buddhist College. Currently,

Research Professor (University Researcher),

Harbin Institute of Technology, China and

Professor, Arcadia University, USA.

Professor Dr FOO Check Teckis unique in his holistic approach

to research: he had published

his work across disciplines.

His papers may be accessed

at www.suntzuinstitute.com.

In recognizing his multidisciplinary

interests, Straits Times hailed

him as Singapore’s

Man of Renaissance.His Reminiscences:

Mind of Sun Tzu

won top Singapore Book Prize

and featured in London-based

World Review for world leaders.

Organizing Strategy:

Blackwell-in-Oxford’s

Spring’s Choice.

Interview by BBC, Japanese Radio,

consultant for US History Channel TV

Art of War program.

One critical aspect for all leaders lie in their

behavior towards decision making.

Decisions shape Futures.

How Do Chinese Businessmen Really

Make Decisions?5,000 Years

Buddhism: Mind, Hsin

CentralProblem

Identify

CriticalFactors

AnalyzeAlternatives

ChoiceRationalization

Implementation

Strategy

Time-line

Lo

gic

al, r

ati

on

al, c

lear

Mu

dd

y, co

mp

lex

MBA Training in Case Analysis

for Decision Making

First we meet I Ching, a philosophy so deeply entrenched

in Chinese thinking. Sun Tzu like all top Chinese strategists are steep intoTaoism and likely to embrace its philosophy. In China,

Professors can lecture on the philosophy of I Ching but not indulge in divinatory aspects. Yet in my view, I Ching is a tool for leaders,

created by Emperors and Kings to deal with uncertainty. Two aspects of I Ching: philosophical and divinatory.

F u x i founded

by observingthe universearound him

eightsymbolism

hexagrams

Heaven(Sky)

Earth(Ground)

Mountain

Water

Wind

Fire

Lake

Thunder

I Ching is a deep, scholarly discipline but its true value

is in aiding leaders to formulate strategy in decision making…

Why I continue on with I Ching research:

Perfect divination by I Ching Expert in Batuo Inner Mongolia

Number 7

師Shi

[Ancient meaning

of “multitude”]

On philosophy of I Ching: Daoist understanding of leadership:

Water

Earth

inner

Outer

The host

of the gua.

The Art of the LeaderIn ancient China, the King given his exalted position

deals with the Generals. It is the General who then

deal directly with the “multitude” or the people. Implicitly,

to lead, one has to be with the multitude. In the hexagram,

the yin lines represent the multiple as led by the single

yang line the leader. Interestingly, in ancient China, they

put a figure of 2,500 as “multitude”: 二千五百人为师.

師

現在的這個「師」字，左邊的

（「阜」字的上半部）是那兩隻

眼睛變形而來的，右邊的「匝」

字是口（即「一」）和鬍子

(即「巾」）變形而來的。

Decomposition

Intuitive Insight based on Shi

金金金金 文文文文

老老老老 師師師師: 道之所存，師之所存也

老師能夠給學生傳授儒家做人的道理，

教給學生知識和技術，解答學生的各種疑問*

Leadership being that of one who is teaching a multitude

of people: knowledge, way of living, techniques, skills

and responding to their queries. Visually, one

explanation is in the leader as the pivot around

whom the multitude mingles.

“Tiers of

groups of

people, the

multitude”

Pivot

* Source: 神傳漢字之謎：解 [師」字; 作者﹕武漢仁

[師」就是古代軍隊的一種軍事建制單位，

那時以每 2500 人為一師*

“一日為師，終身為父”

Harvard is well known for

emphasizing case approach.

What is a case-study?• Just a Story

• Situated by Context

• Bounded by Time

• Embedded in Data

• Insights for Learning

DistillingSay, 1000

Cases:64 Hexagrams

Or Scenarios

Synchronicity is the

experience of two or more

events as meaningfully

related whereas they are

unlikely to be causally

related. Dr Jung

Query

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Time

先知者Now one’s foreknowledge

不可取于鬼神is not obtained from spirits;

不可象于事nor can it be by comparisons with what had happened

不可验于度nor by reasoning from past experiences.

必取于人 Such knowledge may be obtained only from men

知敌之情者也who knows of the situation of the enemy.

Chapter 13:用用用用 间间间间 篇篇篇篇

Shape the Future: What does Sun Tzu has to say?

Quiz: A great WWII strategist ignored this advice? Who? The country paid severely for the oversight.

June 2

2n

d1941 O

pera

tion B

abaro

so

“…Stalin's inaction

despite foreknowledgeof "Operation Barbarossa",

is one of the great mysteries of World War Two…”

“…Russian intelligence had thoroughly penetrated

Nazi ranks. There were hundreds of accurate

reports as early as August 1940 pointing

to the future Nazi invasion…”

http://www.savethemales.ca/was_stalin_complicit_in_hitler.html

“…不可验于度不可验于度不可验于度不可验于度nor by reasoning from past experiences…”

Stalin made the mistake of reasoning…

“…Stalin's assumption was based on Marxist-Leninist

ideological thinking, which convinced the Soviet ruler

that he could sit on the sidelines while Germany and

Britain fought a death battle…”

“…Stalin, Murphy continues, knew very well

that there was a heavy German military

buildup on his western border, but he

deluded himself into believing that Hitler was

trying to trick London into complacency…”

Source: http://www.h-net.org/reviews/showrev.php?id=23366

In other words, according to

Sun Tzu do not just rely on

rational

thinking about

competitorwhen making decisions

In contemporary business:

MBA approaches.

In China today, Chinese businessmen and top government officials go

beyond rational processes

when making key decisions.

Decisions that Shape their Futures.

必取于人 Such knowledge may be obtained only from men

知敌之情者也 who knows of the situation of the enemy.

How a Taiwanese-Thai, Chinese Businessman applies Sun Tzu

Even then, 2,500

years ago… Sun Tzu

prescribed as follows:

Foreknowledge is not to be obtained

from spirits (鬼神)

禁祥去疑 Jìn xiáng qù yí

Neither seek for blessingsnor entertain superstitious doubts

Chapter 11 九地篇

[1] 孙子反对迷信,坚持朴素唯物论的思想方法

[2] 禁祥去疑 : 《孙子》反对迷信,坚持朴素唯物论的思想。语出《九地》篇。它认为,要想预测战争的胜负,“不可取于鬼神,不可象于事,不可验于度”(《孙子·用间》),所谓求神问卜,天象异兆,类比推测都是不可靠的。要从敌我双方的政治、自然、军事方面的情况比较来

分析预测。

[3] 指挥军队作战在于决心坚定,决心坚定在于破除迷信和消除疑虑。禁祥: “禁”是不许,制止的意思。“祥”是迷信的说法,指吉凶的预兆。“禁祥”在此处可理解为破除迷信。

Chinese References

Wilkipedia: Joan of Arc, early 15th Century: She believed she was blessed to win:

Maid of Orleans. A peasant girl, only 19 years old but good military leader.

So does Sun Tzu, the realist strategist

argue that there is no role at all for the

Spiritualin shaping future outcomes?

Sun Tzu however uses the

Great Spiritual Warriorto benchmark top skills!

Shaping Your Futureadapt to your competitor to be

smarter, better and faster!

夫兵形象水 (Fu bīng xíngxiàng shuǐ)

The way of the military is like water;

水之行避高而趋下(Shuǐ zhī xíng bì gāo ér qū xià)

water in its course avoids high ground

but rushes downwards.

兵之形避实而击虚 (Bīng zhī xíng bì shí ér jī xū)The art of military is to avoid strengths

and attack weaknesses.

水因地而制流 (Shuǐ yīn dì ér zhì liú)

Water adapts to the ground in shaping its flows

兵因敌而制胜 (Bīng yīn dí ér zhìshèng )

the art of military is by adapting to enemy for

gaining victory.

故兵无常势 (Gù bīng wú cháng shì)

The army has no fixed configuration

水无常形 (Shuǐ wúcháng xíng)

Just as water has no constant shape.

能因敌变化而取胜者 (Néng yīn dí biàn huà ér qǔ shèng zhě )

One able to change and adapt to the

enemy to gain victory

谓之神 (Wèi zhī shén )

may be called a god.

Chapter 6 虚实篇

谓之神

Source: http://thinkexist.com/quotation/the_intuitive_mind_is_a_sacred_gift_and_the/15585.html

People

Mundane

World

ProblemsRequiringAdvice

TaoistDiviningLots

Buddha’sTeachings:BuddhistSutras

Spiritual

Life

The drawing of lots is very much a part of Chinese cultural outlook.

In Singapore, you just have to go to Waterloo Street

Every decision has possibilities3

NO

YES

WAIT &See

(no for now)

yǒu

qiú

bì

yìng

有有有有

求求求求

必必必必

应应应应

Original Buddhism from India, no qian to be cast: no need for it.

应

應 Heart, Mind

Translation: If there is a query or request or plea for

help for guidance, there will definitely be a response.

Ying --- sound of character bird/eagle

Source: http://chinese-characters.org/meaning/6/61C9.html

Assume youare into

a businessand you are

contemplatingwhether to

give it up andsell off

your sharein a project.

You getthis qian.

Metaphorical

ThinkingTo apply

Art of War

by Sun Tzu

for business,

you too needto think in terms

of metaphors.General as CEOs.

Soldiers as Workers.

“…Aristotle considered metaphor a sign of genius, believing that the individual who had the capacity to

perceive resemblances between two separate

areas of existence and link them together

was a person of special gifts…”

Source: http://creativethinking.net/articles/2012/02/01/thinking-metaphorically/

Interpretation of dream by Kekule of a snake eating its own tail:

gave him the cyclic structure of benzene.

My own interpretation: deep subconscious is responding.

回应

Metaphorical Thinking in Sciences

Do you see other meanings in these symbols?

4 8Source: http://creativethinking.net/articles/2012/02/01/thinking-metaphorically/

As a child, Picasso sees numerals very differently

The Art of Reading

“Responses”or Chiam is therefore a highlycomplex skill requiring thinkingin metaphors.

Integrated, Enriched Modelfor Contemporary Business Decision

Unconscious

90%10%

I Ching,Qian

M.B.A.rationality

Sun Tzu’sArt of War

for survival,pragmaticstrategy

In summary, your decision making and philosophy on

deciding may be enriched by you exploring deeply ancient Chinese approaches of tapping the Unconscious, the intuitive resources:

[1] I Ching both as a philosophy andits approach to mapping out thenow and future scenarios

[2] Study Art of War by Sun Tzu for very pragmatic approaches tostrategy for ruthless contemporary “war-like” business competition

[3] Chinese, Taoist ways of tapping the intuitive mind and develop your metaphorical thinking through interpreting poetic imagery

Open Dial gue