Keynote Lecture, APLA 2013 Conference
Shape the Future: Smarter, Better and Faster18th-22nd November, Thailand, Chiang Mai, Shangri-la Hotel.
Sun Tzu Art of Warfor Contemporary Business
What is one of the most shocking
contemporary business cases?
Is Batista [$34 Billionaire] really busting?World’s eighth richest man, World News.
(Source: Wikipedia)
Page 62, November 2nd-8th 2013 Issue of the Economist
“…OGX oil-and-gas firm at heart of…
Eike BatistaBrazil’s richest manfiled for bankruptcy protection…”
The IPO brochure issued for listing must have been convincing:The IPO brochure issued for listing must have been convincing:The IPO brochure issued for listing must have been convincing:The IPO brochure issued for listing must have been convincing:raising 6.7 billion reais and OGX market capitalizationraising 6.7 billion reais and OGX market capitalizationraising 6.7 billion reais and OGX market capitalizationraising 6.7 billion reais and OGX market capitalization
in 2010, 75 billion reais. Alas oil fields turn out to be duds!in 2010, 75 billion reais. Alas oil fields turn out to be duds!in 2010, 75 billion reais. Alas oil fields turn out to be duds!in 2010, 75 billion reais. Alas oil fields turn out to be duds!
If you have decided to invest
all your money in OGX during listing
(2008, Brazil’s largest IPO),
you will have lost everything:
“…stock market valuation 99% down
from the peak and its bonds
trading at 8% of face value…”
My talk today is about Sun Tzu Art of War in
Contemporary Business: focusing on decision.
You can visit my website:
suntzuinstitute.com
PhD ( Strategy; St Andrews, UK)
MBA (Finance, The City University of London
Postgraduate Award Winner)
LLB (Honors, London)
Barrister-at-Law (Lincoln’s Inn)
Advocate & Solicitor (Singapore)
FCCA, UK (Association of Certified Chartered Accountant)
FCMA, UK (Chartered Management Accountant)
FCIM, UK (Chartered Institute of Marketing)
CPA (Certified Public Accountant, Singapore)
ACIS, (Chartered Secretary, UK)
Cert-in-Productivity (Japan Productivity Center, Tokyo)Prior to becoming an academic, he had been
Operations Officer, 1st Signals Battalion, SAF,
Industrial Relations Adviser, SNEF, Manager
(Legal & Personnel), ABN Bank, Project Manager (Contract
&Finance), Kloeckner Industrie Analagen, Assistant Director
(Planning) & Management Trainer (Strategy), National Productivity
Board, Fellow (Professor Kurosawa), JPC(日本生産性本部日本生産性本部日本生産性本部日本生産性本部) Tokyo.
Professional Background
Retired NTU as tenured Assoc Professor, System
Engineering & Management, Aerospace &
Mechanical Engineering, he had held 2004-2011
Chair of Strategy and Honorary Professorship,
University of St Andrews, (1411), Scotland and
Visiting Professorships: Visiting Distinguished
Professor of Finance, City University of New York,
Visiting Professor, New York Institute of
Technology, Honorary Research Professor,
Copenhagen
Business College, Denmark, Consulting Professor,
INSEAD, Adjunct Professor, Korean Solbridge
Business School, ASEAN Distinguished Professor,
University of Malaya, Visiting Professor
(Coaching), University of Technology Malaysia,
Visiting Professor, UMEA, Sweden, Visiting
Professor, Zhong-Shan DaXue 中山大學中山大學中山大學中山大學 Visiting
Professor Beijing Central University of Finance
and Economics,中央財經大學中央財經大學中央財經大學中央財經大學, Visiting
Professor, Singapore Buddhist College. Currently,
Research Professor (University Researcher),
Harbin Institute of Technology, China and
Professor, Arcadia University, USA.
Professor Dr FOO Check Teckis unique in his holistic approach
to research: he had published
his work across disciplines.
His papers may be accessed
at www.suntzuinstitute.com.
In recognizing his multidisciplinary
interests, Straits Times hailed
him as Singapore’s
Man of Renaissance.His Reminiscences:
Mind of Sun Tzu
won top Singapore Book Prize
and featured in London-based
World Review for world leaders.
Organizing Strategy:
Blackwell-in-Oxford’s
Spring’s Choice.
Interview by BBC, Japanese Radio,
consultant for US History Channel TV
Art of War program.
One critical aspect for all leaders lie in their
behavior towards decision making.
Decisions shape Futures.
How Do Chinese Businessmen Really
Make Decisions?5,000 Years
Buddhism: Mind, Hsin
CentralProblem
Identify
CriticalFactors
AnalyzeAlternatives
ChoiceRationalization
Implementation
Strategy
Time-line
Lo
gic
al, r
ati
on
al, c
lear
Mu
dd
y, co
mp
lex
MBA Training in Case Analysis
for Decision Making
First we meet I Ching, a philosophy so deeply entrenched
in Chinese thinking. Sun Tzu like all top Chinese strategists are steep intoTaoism and likely to embrace its philosophy. In China,
Professors can lecture on the philosophy of I Ching but not indulge in divinatory aspects. Yet in my view, I Ching is a tool for leaders,
created by Emperors and Kings to deal with uncertainty. Two aspects of I Ching: philosophical and divinatory.
F u x i founded
by observingthe universearound him
eightsymbolism
hexagrams
Heaven(Sky)
Earth(Ground)
Mountain
Water
Wind
Fire
Lake
Thunder
I Ching is a deep, scholarly discipline but its true value
is in aiding leaders to formulate strategy in decision making…
Why I continue on with I Ching research:
Perfect divination by I Ching Expert in Batuo Inner Mongolia
Number 7
師Shi
[Ancient meaning
of “multitude”]
On philosophy of I Ching: Daoist understanding of leadership:
Water
Earth
inner
Outer
The host
of the gua.
The Art of the LeaderIn ancient China, the King given his exalted position
deals with the Generals. It is the General who then
deal directly with the “multitude” or the people. Implicitly,
to lead, one has to be with the multitude. In the hexagram,
the yin lines represent the multiple as led by the single
yang line the leader. Interestingly, in ancient China, they
put a figure of 2,500 as “multitude”: 二千五百人为师.
師
現在的這個「師」字,左邊的
(「阜」字的上半部)是那兩隻
眼睛變形而來的,右邊的「匝」
字是口(即「一」)和鬍子
(即「巾」)變形而來的。
Decomposition
Intuitive Insight based on Shi
金金金金 文文文文
老老老老 師師師師: 道之所存,師之所存也
老師能夠給學生傳授儒家做人的道理,
教給學生知識和技術,解答學生的各種疑問*
Leadership being that of one who is teaching a multitude
of people: knowledge, way of living, techniques, skills
and responding to their queries. Visually, one
explanation is in the leader as the pivot around
whom the multitude mingles.
“Tiers of
groups of
people, the
multitude”
Pivot
* Source: 神傳漢字之謎:解 [師」字; 作者﹕武漢仁
[師」就是古代軍隊的一種軍事建制單位,
那時以每 2500 人為一師*
“一日為師,終身為父”
Harvard is well known for
emphasizing case approach.
What is a case-study?• Just a Story
• Situated by Context
• Bounded by Time
• Embedded in Data
• Insights for Learning
DistillingSay, 1000
Cases:64 Hexagrams
Or Scenarios
Synchronicity is the
experience of two or more
events as meaningfully
related whereas they are
unlikely to be causally
related. Dr Jung
Query
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Time
先知者Now one’s foreknowledge
不可取于鬼神is not obtained from spirits;
不可象于事nor can it be by comparisons with what had happened
不可验于度nor by reasoning from past experiences.
必取于人 Such knowledge may be obtained only from men
知敌之情者也who knows of the situation of the enemy.
Chapter 13:用用用用 间间间间 篇篇篇篇
Shape the Future: What does Sun Tzu has to say?
Quiz: A great WWII strategist ignored this advice? Who? The country paid severely for the oversight.
June 2
2n
d1941 O
pera
tion B
abaro
so
“…Stalin's inaction
despite foreknowledgeof "Operation Barbarossa",
is one of the great mysteries of World War Two…”
“…Russian intelligence had thoroughly penetrated
Nazi ranks. There were hundreds of accurate
reports as early as August 1940 pointing
to the future Nazi invasion…”
http://www.savethemales.ca/was_stalin_complicit_in_hitler.html
“…不可验于度不可验于度不可验于度不可验于度nor by reasoning from past experiences…”
Stalin made the mistake of reasoning…
“…Stalin's assumption was based on Marxist-Leninist
ideological thinking, which convinced the Soviet ruler
that he could sit on the sidelines while Germany and
Britain fought a death battle…”
“…Stalin, Murphy continues, knew very well
that there was a heavy German military
buildup on his western border, but he
deluded himself into believing that Hitler was
trying to trick London into complacency…”
Source: http://www.h-net.org/reviews/showrev.php?id=23366
In other words, according to
Sun Tzu do not just rely on
rational
thinking about
competitorwhen making decisions
In contemporary business:
MBA approaches.
In China today, Chinese businessmen and top government officials go
beyond rational processes
when making key decisions.
Decisions that Shape their Futures.
必取于人 Such knowledge may be obtained only from men
知敌之情者也 who knows of the situation of the enemy.
How a Taiwanese-Thai, Chinese Businessman applies Sun Tzu
Even then, 2,500
years ago… Sun Tzu
prescribed as follows:
Foreknowledge is not to be obtained
from spirits (鬼神)
禁祥去疑 Jìn xiáng qù yí
Neither seek for blessingsnor entertain superstitious doubts
Chapter 11 九地篇
[1] 孙子反对迷信,坚持朴素唯物论的思想方法
[2] 禁祥去疑 : 《孙子》反对迷信,坚持朴素唯物论的思想。语出《九地》篇。它认为,要想预测战争的胜负,“不可取于鬼神,不可象于事,不可验于度”(《孙子·用间》),所谓求神问卜,天象异兆,类比推测都是不可靠的。要从敌我双方的政治、自然、军事方面的情况比较来
分析预测。
[3] 指挥军队作战在于决心坚定,决心坚定在于破除迷信和消除疑虑。禁祥: “禁”是不许,制止的意思。“祥”是迷信的说法,指吉凶的预兆。“禁祥”在此处可理解为破除迷信。
Chinese References
Wilkipedia: Joan of Arc, early 15th Century: She believed she was blessed to win:
Maid of Orleans. A peasant girl, only 19 years old but good military leader.
So does Sun Tzu, the realist strategist
argue that there is no role at all for the
Spiritualin shaping future outcomes?
Sun Tzu however uses the
Great Spiritual Warriorto benchmark top skills!
Shaping Your Futureadapt to your competitor to be
smarter, better and faster!
夫兵形象水 (Fu bīng xíngxiàng shuǐ)
The way of the military is like water;
水之行避高而趋下(Shuǐ zhī xíng bì gāo ér qū xià)
water in its course avoids high ground
but rushes downwards.
兵之形避实而击虚 (Bīng zhī xíng bì shí ér jī xū)The art of military is to avoid strengths
and attack weaknesses.
水因地而制流 (Shuǐ yīn dì ér zhì liú)
Water adapts to the ground in shaping its flows
兵因敌而制胜 (Bīng yīn dí ér zhìshèng )
the art of military is by adapting to enemy for
gaining victory.
故兵无常势 (Gù bīng wú cháng shì)
The army has no fixed configuration
水无常形 (Shuǐ wúcháng xíng)
Just as water has no constant shape.
能因敌变化而取胜者 (Néng yīn dí biàn huà ér qǔ shèng zhě )
One able to change and adapt to the
enemy to gain victory
谓之神 (Wèi zhī shén )
may be called a god.
Chapter 6 虚实篇
谓之神
Source: http://thinkexist.com/quotation/the_intuitive_mind_is_a_sacred_gift_and_the/15585.html
People
Mundane
World
ProblemsRequiringAdvice
TaoistDiviningLots
Buddha’sTeachings:BuddhistSutras
Spiritual
Life
The drawing of lots is very much a part of Chinese cultural outlook.
In Singapore, you just have to go to Waterloo Street
Every decision has possibilities3
NO
YES
WAIT &See
(no for now)
yǒu
qiú
bì
yìng
有有有有
求求求求
必必必必
应应应应
Original Buddhism from India, no qian to be cast: no need for it.
应
應 Heart, Mind
Translation: If there is a query or request or plea for
help for guidance, there will definitely be a response.
Ying --- sound of character bird/eagle
Source: http://chinese-characters.org/meaning/6/61C9.html
Assume youare into
a businessand you are
contemplatingwhether to
give it up andsell off
your sharein a project.
You getthis qian.
Metaphorical
ThinkingTo apply
Art of War
by Sun Tzu
for business,
you too needto think in terms
of metaphors.General as CEOs.
Soldiers as Workers.
“…Aristotle considered metaphor a sign of genius, believing that the individual who had the capacity to
perceive resemblances between two separate
areas of existence and link them together
was a person of special gifts…”
Source: http://creativethinking.net/articles/2012/02/01/thinking-metaphorically/
Interpretation of dream by Kekule of a snake eating its own tail:
gave him the cyclic structure of benzene.
My own interpretation: deep subconscious is responding.
回应
Metaphorical Thinking in Sciences
Do you see other meanings in these symbols?
4 8Source: http://creativethinking.net/articles/2012/02/01/thinking-metaphorically/
As a child, Picasso sees numerals very differently
The Art of Reading
“Responses”or Chiam is therefore a highlycomplex skill requiring thinkingin metaphors.
Integrated, Enriched Modelfor Contemporary Business Decision
Unconscious
90%10%
I Ching,Qian
M.B.A.rationality
Sun Tzu’sArt of War
for survival,pragmaticstrategy
In summary, your decision making and philosophy on
deciding may be enriched by you exploring deeply ancient Chinese approaches of tapping the Unconscious, the intuitive resources:
[1] I Ching both as a philosophy andits approach to mapping out thenow and future scenarios
[2] Study Art of War by Sun Tzu for very pragmatic approaches tostrategy for ruthless contemporary “war-like” business competition
[3] Chinese, Taoist ways of tapping the intuitive mind and develop your metaphorical thinking through interpreting poetic imagery
Open Dial gue