Support for High Impact Sub-Advisory Winter Precipitation Events

Along Interstate 80 in Central Pennsylvania:

A Partner Project with the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and the

Pennsylvania State Police

Support for High Impact Sub-Advisory Winter Precipitation Events

Along Interstate 80 in Central Pennsylvania:

A Partner Project with the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and the

Pennsylvania State Police

Gregory A. DeVoir NOAA/NWS State College,

PA

David OndrejikNOAA/NWS State College,

PA

Gregory A. DeVoir NOAA/NWS State College,

PA

David OndrejikNOAA/NWS State College,

PA

ReferencesReferences

• Colby, F. P., Jr. and B. Krajewski, 2005: Forecasting Snow Squalls Using Mesoscale Models. 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington, D.C., Amer. Meteor. Soc.

• DeVoir, G.A., 2004: High impact sub-advisory snow events: The need to effectively communicate the threat of short duration high intensity snowfall. 20th Conf. Wea. Forecasting, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

• Eisenberg, Daniel, 2004: The Mixed Effects of Precipitation on Traffic Crashes, University of California Berkeley.

• Fridstrom, L., Liver, J., Ingebrigtsen, S., Kulmala, R., Thomsen, L., 1995. Measuring the contribution of randomness, exposure, weather, and daylight to the variation in road accident counts. Crash Anal. Prev. 27 (1), 1–20.

• Colby, F. P., Jr. and B. Krajewski, 2005: Forecasting Snow Squalls Using Mesoscale Models. 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington, D.C., Amer. Meteor. Soc.

• DeVoir, G.A., 2004: High impact sub-advisory snow events: The need to effectively communicate the threat of short duration high intensity snowfall. 20th Conf. Wea. Forecasting, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

• Eisenberg, Daniel, 2004: The Mixed Effects of Precipitation on Traffic Crashes, University of California Berkeley.

• Fridstrom, L., Liver, J., Ingebrigtsen, S., Kulmala, R., Thomsen, L., 1995. Measuring the contribution of randomness, exposure, weather, and daylight to the variation in road accident counts. Crash Anal. Prev. 27 (1), 1–20.

What is Impact?What is Impact?

• How do we assess it?• Can we quantify or verify it?

• How do we assess it?• Can we quantify or verify it?

Impact is dynamic and depends on any number of constantly changing variables

We may not be able to quantify it, but we all know significant impact when we see it (and so does the media)

Impact is dynamic and depends on any number of constantly changing variables

We may not be able to quantify it, but we all know significant impact when we see it (and so does the media)

High Impact Sub-Advisory (HISA) Snowfall

High Impact Sub-Advisory (HISA) Snowfall

• Short duration, high intensity snow (falling in bursts or squalls) with 1-3” amounts in a 1 to 2 hour period, greatly magnifies impact

• Instantaneous whiteouts, rapidly changing road conditions and driver anxiety/confusion make chain reaction accidents more likely

• The terms “high impact” and “sub-advisory” (HISA) are used here to describe such events

• Short duration, high intensity snow (falling in bursts or squalls) with 1-3” amounts in a 1 to 2 hour period, greatly magnifies impact

• Instantaneous whiteouts, rapidly changing road conditions and driver anxiety/confusion make chain reaction accidents more likely

• The terms “high impact” and “sub-advisory” (HISA) are used here to describe such events

The HISA ProblemThe HISA Problem

• On average, throughout the winter months, sub-advisory snowfalls occur 3 to 4 times as often as Snow Advisory and Warning events

• When sub-advisory snow impact is high (intensity and timing), information dissemination becomes crucial. How do we get this information to the people

who need it most? How can we mitigate the potential impact if

people don’t receive the information?

• On average, throughout the winter months, sub-advisory snowfalls occur 3 to 4 times as often as Snow Advisory and Warning events

• When sub-advisory snow impact is high (intensity and timing), information dissemination becomes crucial. How do we get this information to the people

who need it most? How can we mitigate the potential impact if

people don’t receive the information?

• Predictability

Localized events• Sometimes, but not always predictable

more than a few hours in advance

Analogous to severe local convection• “Conditions are favorable for the

formation…”• Imminent threats require short fused

dissemination and immediate response

• Predictability

Localized events• Sometimes, but not always predictable

more than a few hours in advance

Analogous to severe local convection• “Conditions are favorable for the

formation…”• Imminent threats require short fused

dissemination and immediate response

The HISA ProblemThe HISA Problem

Recent High Impact Sub-Advisory Events in PA

Recent High Impact Sub-Advisory Events in PA

• 22 February 2001 – 2 to 3 inches of snow in less than 2 hours throughout central and northern mid-Atlantic statesNumerous chain reaction accidents - 300 vehicle

pileup north of Washington D.C.

• 28 December 2001 - Lake Effect Snow Squall (Loganton, PA) 8 Dead

• 5 January 2003 – 1 to 3 inches of snow in less than 3 hours across south central PA (midday Sunday - church services)

• 22 February 2001 – 2 to 3 inches of snow in less than 2 hours throughout central and northern mid-Atlantic statesNumerous chain reaction accidents - 300 vehicle

pileup north of Washington D.C.

• 28 December 2001 - Lake Effect Snow Squall (Loganton, PA) 8 Dead

• 5 January 2003 – 1 to 3 inches of snow in less than 3 hours across south central PA (midday Sunday - church services)

Arctic Fronts w/Squalls

Arctic Fronts w/Squalls

FLASH FREEZE

Plunging

Post-frontal

Sub-freezing

Temperatures

FLASH FREEZE

Plunging

Post-frontal

Sub-freezing

Temperatures

Above-freezing prefrontal

temperatures

Above-freezing prefrontal

temperatures

Lake Effect Snow Showers and Squalls

Lake Effect Snow Showers and Squalls

© geology.com

© geology.com

Intense Warm Advection

Intense Warm Advection

LL

NOAA Strategic Plan andthe NWS Mission

NOAA Strategic Plan andthe NWS Mission

• “Support the Nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation”

• NWS Data and services protect life and property, an inherently governmental function, with direct benefit to the national economy

• “Support the Nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation”

• NWS Data and services protect life and property, an inherently governmental function, with direct benefit to the national economy

Early Work: NWS State College, PA

Winter 2003-2004

Early Work: NWS State College, PA

Winter 2003-2004

• Focus on I-80 and on the most susceptible counties in our CWA

• Provide immediate notifications via:

• Judicial SPS issuances with pathcasts and detailed impact statements

• Phone calls to individual county PENNDoT and PSP offices

• Focus on I-80 and on the most susceptible counties in our CWA

• Provide immediate notifications via:

• Judicial SPS issuances with pathcasts and detailed impact statements

• Phone calls to individual county PENNDoT and PSP offices

Early Work 2003-2004Early Work 2003-2004• PENNDoT

Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)• Highway Advisory Radio• Dynamic Roadside Signs

$$$ and Limited availability/deployment

• PENNDoTIntelligent Transportation Systems

(ITS)• Highway Advisory Radio• Dynamic Roadside Signs

$$$ and Limited availability/deployment

January 6, 2004January 6, 2004

CDT PHOTO/MICHELLE KLEIN CDT PHOTO/MICHELLE KLEIN

CDT PHOTO/NIKI

DESAUTELS CDT PHOTO/NIKI

DESAUTELS

CDT PHOTO/MICHELLE KLEIN CDT PHOTO/MICHELLE KLEIN

Photo Credits:

Centre Daily Times (CDT) and AP

Photo Credits:

Centre Daily Times (CDT) and AP

CDT PHOTO/NIKI

DESAUTELS CDT PHOTO/NIKI

DESAUTELS

AP PHOTOAP PHOTO

Milesburg, PA

Milesburg, PA

January 6, 2004January 6, 2004

January 6, 2004January 6, 2004• A total of 6 dead

• A total of 17 injured - Life Flight evacuations

• 20 Tractor Trailers and 17 Automobiles involved

• Multi-million dollars in damage (estimate not

available)

• Support from 7 counties, 80 agencies, and over 700 first responders

• Response and recovery - 30,0000+ man hours.

• Outstanding lawsuits – years of litigation

• A total of 6 dead

• A total of 17 injured - Life Flight evacuations

• 20 Tractor Trailers and 17 Automobiles involved

• Multi-million dollars in damage (estimate not

available)

• Support from 7 counties, 80 agencies, and over 700 first responders

• Response and recovery - 30,0000+ man hours.

• Outstanding lawsuits – years of litigation

Wake Up CallWake Up Call

I-80 Notification PlanI-80 Notification Plan

I-80 Notification PlanI-80 Notification Plan• Two tiered approach

Long term:• Email notifications (1-2 days in advance) sent to

all county PENNDoT and PSP contact points

Short term:• Highly detailed SPSs (issued not only for I-80

area)• Phone Call Chain

1 phone call originates from WFO State College• PENNDoT Activation of ITS highway signs and

Highway Advisory Radio• PSP Support – cruisers dispatched to edge of

affected area to run lights, slowing traffic

• Two tiered approachLong term:

• Email notifications (1-2 days in advance) sent to all county PENNDoT and PSP contact points

Short term:• Highly detailed SPSs (issued not only for I-80

area)• Phone Call Chain

1 phone call originates from WFO State College• PENNDoT Activation of ITS highway signs and

Highway Advisory Radio• PSP Support – cruisers dispatched to edge of

affected area to run lights, slowing traffic

• PAZ012-018-019-045-049-230045-NORTHERN CENTRE-NORTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-UNION-749 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

•...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT UNION...CENTRE AND CLINTON COUNTIES...

AT 748 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SNOW SQUALL 12 MILES NORTH OF BELLEFONTE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE SQUALL WILL BE NEAR BALD EAGLE STATE PARK...HOWARD AROUND 755 PM...BEECH CREEK AROUND 800 PM...LAMAR...MILL HALL...LOCK HAVEN AROUND 810 PM...MACKEYVILLE...REBERSBURG AROUND 815 PM...LOGANTON AROUND 830 PM AND CARROLL AROUND 835 PM.

• PAZ012-018-019-045-049-230045-NORTHERN CENTRE-NORTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-UNION-749 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

•...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT UNION...CENTRE AND CLINTON COUNTIES...

AT 748 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SNOW SQUALL 12 MILES NORTH OF BELLEFONTE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE SQUALL WILL BE NEAR BALD EAGLE STATE PARK...HOWARD AROUND 755 PM...BEECH CREEK AROUND 800 PM...LAMAR...MILL HALL...LOCK HAVEN AROUND 810 PM...MACKEYVILLE...REBERSBURG AROUND 815 PM...LOGANTON AROUND 830 PM AND CARROLL AROUND 835 PM.

• THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITIES IN THE SQUALL TO NEAR ZERO.USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL INTO OR THROUGH THISPOTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL. CONSIDER DELAYING TRAVEL UNTIL THESQUALL PASSES YOUR LOCATION.

•$$

• THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITIES IN THE SQUALL TO NEAR ZERO.USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL INTO OR THROUGH THISPOTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL. CONSIDER DELAYING TRAVEL UNTIL THESQUALL PASSES YOUR LOCATION.

•$$

•THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 165 AND 199.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...STATE ROAD 45.

•THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 165 AND 199.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...STATE ROAD 45.

Ongoing WorkOngoing Work

• Expanding notifications beyond I-80

• I-80 work is experimental, labor intensive: Cannot be duplicated CWA-wide due to workload

• Coordinate future notifications through Emergency Management (PEMA, EMAs)

• Expand and fully automate notifications for all major highways: Statement of Need (SON) for a new NWS Warning Product with EAS

• Expanding notifications beyond I-80

• I-80 work is experimental, labor intensive: Cannot be duplicated CWA-wide due to workload

• Coordinate future notifications through Emergency Management (PEMA, EMAs)

• Expand and fully automate notifications for all major highways: Statement of Need (SON) for a new NWS Warning Product with EAS

February 10, 2008February 10, 2008

• Hazleton, PA: I-81*68-vehicle pileup 1 dead, dozens injuredSnow squall ahead of

arctic front

• Rochester, NY: I-390*36-car chain reaction

accident 1 dead, 24 injuredpost-frontal white out

conditions

• Hazleton, PA: I-81*68-vehicle pileup 1 dead, dozens injuredSnow squall ahead of

arctic front

• Rochester, NY: I-390*36-car chain reaction

accident 1 dead, 24 injuredpost-frontal white out

conditions

*Outside of Experimental I-80 Partner Project Area*Outside of Experimental I-80 Partner Project Area

Statement of Need (SON)Snow Squall Warning

Statement of Need (SON)Snow Squall Warning

• Co-authored by NWS Binghamton, NY and State College, PA through NWS ER HQ

• Needs:A new AWIPS product ID with a new WMO

header:   SSWxxx (where xxx is the WFO id)A new VTEC code,   SS.WNew EAS code  SSW  (could use the WSW code

in the interim)Criteria for issuing the warningVerificationTrainingCustomer education and outreach

• Co-authored by NWS Binghamton, NY and State College, PA through NWS ER HQ

• Needs:A new AWIPS product ID with a new WMO

header:   SSWxxx (where xxx is the WFO id)A new VTEC code,   SS.WNew EAS code  SSW  (could use the WSW code

in the interim)Criteria for issuing the warningVerificationTrainingCustomer education and outreach

Statement of Need (SON)Snow Squall Warning

Statement of Need (SON)Snow Squall Warning

• Benefits and Performance ImpactPerformance Measure Impacts:

• Would not address a GPRA goal specifically, but could be worked into winter weather warnings.

Socio-Economic Impacts:• Enormous: Alert road crews, the public,

police, fire and emergency management• Feed into highway warning systems (ITS),

pagers, cell phones, radio stations to raise awareness

• Mitigative actions may prevent or reduce the severity of crashes, reducing loss of life and property, and disruption to commerce

• Benefits and Performance ImpactPerformance Measure Impacts:

• Would not address a GPRA goal specifically, but could be worked into winter weather warnings.

Socio-Economic Impacts:• Enormous: Alert road crews, the public,

police, fire and emergency management• Feed into highway warning systems (ITS),

pagers, cell phones, radio stations to raise awareness

• Mitigative actions may prevent or reduce the severity of crashes, reducing loss of life and property, and disruption to commerce

• Key Customers and Stakeholders

Customers: • The general public, transportation

industries, state, local and county government. Stakeholders:

Stakeholders:• Emergency management, department of

transportations, police, fire and other first responders.

• Key Customers and Stakeholders

Customers: • The general public, transportation

industries, state, local and county government. Stakeholders:

Stakeholders:• Emergency management, department of

transportations, police, fire and other first responders.

Statement of Need (SON)Snow Squall Warning

Statement of Need (SON)Snow Squall Warning

New Warning Has Support from General Public

New Warning Has Support from General Public

• Unsolicited email to NWS HQ from general public in support of winter weather warning for high impact snow squall eventsnick.kovatch@valpo.edusubject: From Weather.govcomments: To whom it may concern,

My name is Nick Kovatch and I am a television/radio major at Valparaiso University. I have grown up in Northern ndiana all my life and I am accustomed to all the wild winter weather that affects us here, including lake-effect snow. As a weather enthusiast, I was browsing a message board and an interesting topic was brought to my attention.

The NWS should create a warning for extremely heavy squalls of lake effect snow. This warning shouldn't be just a Lake-Effect Snow Warning, but a warning that would be treated like a Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm, or Flash Flood Warning. Something that would turn on weather radios and be put on local television”

The criteria would be for an event like we saw last Wednesday that caused the accidents on I-94. I'm sure that if people had a more influential warning, the accident could have been minimized. I was going to Valpo from home on ednesday, and didn't realize how bad the squall was until I hit Porter County. I had no warning whatsoever. Something like a "White Out Warning" or a "Heavy Snow Squall Warning" would get the publics attention.Just a thought that could possibly save many lives. I hope you consider it and I'd be happy to work with you more on it.

Thanks.

• Unsolicited email to NWS HQ from general public in support of winter weather warning for high impact snow squall eventsnick.kovatch@valpo.edusubject: From Weather.govcomments: To whom it may concern,

My name is Nick Kovatch and I am a television/radio major at Valparaiso University. I have grown up in Northern ndiana all my life and I am accustomed to all the wild winter weather that affects us here, including lake-effect snow. As a weather enthusiast, I was browsing a message board and an interesting topic was brought to my attention.

The NWS should create a warning for extremely heavy squalls of lake effect snow. This warning shouldn't be just a Lake-Effect Snow Warning, but a warning that would be treated like a Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm, or Flash Flood Warning. Something that would turn on weather radios and be put on local television”

The criteria would be for an event like we saw last Wednesday that caused the accidents on I-94. I'm sure that if people had a more influential warning, the accident could have been minimized. I was going to Valpo from home on ednesday, and didn't realize how bad the squall was until I hit Porter County. I had no warning whatsoever. Something like a "White Out Warning" or a "Heavy Snow Squall Warning" would get the publics attention.Just a thought that could possibly save many lives. I hope you consider it and I'd be happy to work with you more on it.

Thanks.

• Email from media in support of Proposed Winter Weather Simplification, and also a short-fused winter weather warning for snow squall events. 

• Email from media in support of Proposed Winter Weather Simplification, and also a short-fused winter weather warning for snow squall events. 

New Warning Has Support from Media Partners

New Warning Has Support from Media Partners

“That is why I would propose to you the idea of a product similar to a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, but for winter-time purposes; something like a Snow Squall Warning….I would propose creating it similar to SVRs or TORs, so that media crawl systems, automated web site displays and most importantly EAS can be activated.”

Matt Lanza

Meteorologist

WKTV - Utica, NY

“That is why I would propose to you the idea of a product similar to a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, but for winter-time purposes; something like a Snow Squall Warning….I would propose creating it similar to SVRs or TORs, so that media crawl systems, automated web site displays and most importantly EAS can be activated.”

Matt Lanza

Meteorologist

WKTV - Utica, NY

• Find event “fingerprints”

EnsemblesPast event reconstructions with

mesoscale modelsClassify eventsWAF or BAMS article

• Find event “fingerprints”

EnsemblesPast event reconstructions with

mesoscale modelsClassify eventsWAF or BAMS article

Additional Ongoing WorkAdditional Ongoing Work

Final pointsFinal points

• “Accidents will happen” However, timely and efficient notification

allow DOT and State Police to mitigate HISA snow impacts

A new Snow Squall Warning would streamline this

• High Impact Notifications

Reduce the severity of accidentsSave lives, reduce injuriesDecrease property damage

• “Accidents will happen” However, timely and efficient notification

allow DOT and State Police to mitigate HISA snow impacts

A new Snow Squall Warning would streamline this

• High Impact Notifications

Reduce the severity of accidentsSave lives, reduce injuriesDecrease property damage

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

• David Ondrejik: WCM, WFO State College PALaid groundwork with PENNDOT and PSP to

develop I-80 notification planFacilitated implementation/support to WFO

operations

• David Nicosia: WCM, WFO Binghamton NYStatement of Need (SON) co-author for creation of

Snow Squall Warning (SSW)

• David Ondrejik: WCM, WFO State College PALaid groundwork with PENNDOT and PSP to

develop I-80 notification planFacilitated implementation/support to WFO

operations

• David Nicosia: WCM, WFO Binghamton NYStatement of Need (SON) co-author for creation of

Snow Squall Warning (SSW)

• WFO State College, PA Operational StaffSwiftly adopted I-80 notification plan into

operations Provided important proof-of-concept to expand

notifications regionally – and for possible creation of a new winter warning product

• NWS Eastern Region HQ Support and leadership to move forward

• WFO State College, PA Operational StaffSwiftly adopted I-80 notification plan into

operations Provided important proof-of-concept to expand

notifications regionally – and for possible creation of a new winter warning product

• NWS Eastern Region HQ Support and leadership to move forward

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements