Surviving the Anthropocene

Challenges for the 21st Century

Will Steffen Executive Director, The ANU Climate Change Institute

The Australian National University

Temperature Change through Earth History

Zalasiewicz and Williams 2009

Human Development and Earth System Dynamics

Evolution of fully modern humans in Africa

Hunter-gatherer societies only

Beginning of

agriculture

Aborigines arrive in Australia

Beginning of agriculture

Great European civilisations: Greek, Roman

Human Development and Earth System Dynamics

Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004

First migration of fully modern humans

out of Africa

Migrations of fully modern humans

from South Asia to Europe

The Anthropocene Epoch

Steffen, Crutzen, McNeill (2007) Ambio 36: 614-621 Crutzen (2002) Nature 415: 23 Costanza, Graumlich, Steffen (2006) Dahlem W’shop Rep 96 Steffen et al. (2011) Phil Trans Roy Soc A 369: 842-867

The Anthropocene: conceptual evolution

2000: Paul Crutzen - introduced “Anthropocene” to emphasise that the Earth had left the Holocene due to human activities 1824+: Greenhouse theory - J. Fourier, J. Tyndall, S. Arrhenius, R. Revelle 1873: Stoppani - ‘anthropozoic era’; 1874: George Perkins Marsh - The Earth as modified by human action (also Turner et al. 1990) 1920s: Concept of the Noösphere - E. Suess, P. Teilhard de Chardin, V. Vernadsky, E. Le Roy, H. Bergson 1924+: Concept of global biogeochemistry - V. Vernadsky Modern era: Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth, E.F. Stoermer 1980s; Andrew Revkin’s Global Warming 1992; James Lovelock - Gaia

J. Grinevald, in Steffen et al. 2011

The stages of the Anthropocene

The Anthropocene is defined with respect to the Holocene, not just by human influence on the global environment. Human impacts must push the Earth System well beyond the Holocene envelope of variability.

Pre-Anthropocene Before 1800 Stage 1 1800 - 1945/1950 Stage 2 1945/1950 - 2000 Stage 3 2000 - ?

Steffen et al. 2007

Steffen et al. 2007 and references therein

Anthropocene stages: CO2 as an indicator

Holocene envelope of variability

Beginning of directional trend

Outside of Holocene envelope of variability

Before the Anthropocene: Pre-Anthropocene Events (Pre-1800)

•”Fire-Stick Farming” - use of fire as a tool to modify Ecosystems to favour particular desired species and to aid in the hunt. Fire was most often used to convert dry forests and woodlands into savannas and grasslands, and to maintain ecosystems in those states. • Megafauna extinctions - large-scale (continental) extinctions of large Pleistocene mammals by hunting, perhaps in combination with climatic changes - North America, northern Eurasia, Australia. • No discernable effect on Earth System functioning at the global scale

Anthropocene Stage 1 (1800-1945/1950)

• Evidence - increase in GHG concentrations, widespread

deforestation of temperate forests, etc. • Industrial Revolution - steam engine, fossil fuel energy systems, rapid and wide spread of these energy systems • Flow-on effects - more efficient techniques for land clearing; synthetic fertiliser; more reliable water supply and better sanitation, leading to better public health. These developments, in turn, led to an increase in population AND their ability to consume.

Human Imprint on Marine Ecosystems

Fisheries collapse – The Atlantic cod stocks off the east

coast of Newfoundland collapsed in 1992, forcing the closure of the fishery

– Depleted stocks may not recover even if harvesting is significantly reduced or eliminated entirely

– About 50% of all fish stocks are fully exploited, 15-18% are overexploited, and 9-10% have been depleted or are recovering from depletion

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005, Steffen et al. 2004

Human Imprint on the Terrestrial Biosphere

From landscapes to genes…

Massive change in biodiversity

Land clearing Introduction of new species Altered disturbance regimes Redistribution of water resources; changes in nutrient capital Direct removal of species through hunting and fishing Mineral extraction

Oki, et. al, 2002, IHE-UNESCO (Based on Statistics from FAO etc., for 2000)

Caribbean

North America

Central America

South America

West

Africa

Oceania

East &

South East Asia

South

Asia

USSR

North West Africa

Western Europe

Middle

East

1~5 5~10 10~15 15~20 20~30 30~50 50<

Importer based, over 5 km3/y

km3/y

78.5

33.5

46.2

57.5 38.8

36.4

Economic Globalization: Virtual Water Flows

(Cereals only)

Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature

Source: Mann et al. 2003 (EOS)

The multi-faceted nature of global change

From Steffen et al. 2004

Anthropocene Stage 2

(1945 - 2010/2020)

The changing ’human enterprise’, from 1750

to 2000.

Note the start of the ’Great Acceleration’ around 1950, when

many activities began or accelerated sharply.

From: Steffen et al. 2004

Responses of the biophysical Earth System to the accelerating ’human enterprise’. The biophysical responses of the Earth System show many of the same features as the Great Acceleration in the human enterprise.

National Geographic, March 2011

I = P x A x T

• Equity issues profoundly complicate the challenge of global change. • In the Great Acceleration technology and especially consumption have overtaken population as a driver of change.

Triggers of the Great Acceleration

• Globalisation: Global networks of communication & finance -

crossed a threshold of connectivity

• Emergence of ”armies of scientists & technologists” from WWII

• Dramatic shifts in political & economic structures/institutions

• Establishment of the Bretton Woods institutions

• World economy based on capitalist/neo-liberal economic principles

• Increasing commoditisation of public goods

• ’Growth imperative’ - increasing consumption per capita

Knowledge Science Technology

Population Energy

Institutions

Production/ Consumption

Political Economy

From: Hibbard et al. 2006

The Changing Human-Environment Relationship under the Great Acceleration

Complex impacts of globalisation • Mixed environmental impacts at local levels but homogenisation of the environment at the global level • Loss of diversity of cultural values • Negative environmental impacts of debt crisis

Urbanisation and the environment • Different experiences and understanding of nature between urban and rural dwellers • Increased wealth, rising consumption expectations • Transformation of rural-urban linkages - ’footprints’

Governance • Shift to free-market economic systems • Decentralisation & privatisation of environmental management

Source: Global Footprints Network 2005

Global Footprint of the Human Enterprise

Source: Moran et al., Ecological Economics, 64, 470-474, 2008

Sustainable development quadrant

The Anthropocene Stage 3: Sustainability or Collapse

Where on Earth are We Going?

Collapse of Early Civilisations

Top: East African civilisation (from Verschuren et al. 2000) Middle: Classic Mayan Civilisation (from Hodell et al. 2001) Bottom: Akkadian civilisation (Syria) (from Cullen et al. 2000)

The Greenland Norse

Year AD

All samples

-21

-20,5

-20

-19,5

-19

-18,5

-18

-17,5

-17

-16,5

-16

-15,5

-15

-14,5

-14

-13,5

-13

Tj#

165

Tj#

18

Tj#

28

Ø35a

Tj#

11

Ø35c

Ø35b

Ø48a

V51#197

V51#240

Tj#

12

Ø48b

Tj#

25

Tj#

16

Tj#

27

Tj#

26

Tj#

19

Ø35a

V7#175

Ø47#20

Ø47#22

Ø167

Ø111#205

Ø149#214

Ø149#216

V51#258

Ø111#208

Ø111#210

Ø47#21

V51#253

V51#1

Ø66#24

V51#250

V51#256

V7K

-4117

Ø23a

Ø149#220

Ø149#221

Ø149#222

Ø149#224

Ø149#226

Ø149#227

Ø149#228

V51#249

V51#255

V51#184

V51#247

V51#3

V51#5

Ø149#215

V51#6

Ø1b

Ø23b

Ø111#206

Ø111#207

Ø23a

Ø149#9

Ø149#213

Ø149#8

V51#254

V51#4

Ø66#23

V7#174

Ø149#10

V7K

-4120

Ø149#7

V51#2

Ø111#13

Ø1a

Ø111#15

Ø111#14

C13

AU I - c. 980 - 1160 AU II - c. 1160 - 1300 AU III - c. 1300 - 1450 Arch dates

Jette Arneborg

Lower Rhone Valley 1000 BC - 1000 AD

Socio-environmental Co-evolution: Resilience and Constraints

Roman Settlement Patterns

Sander van der Leeuw

150014751450142514001375135013251300127512501225120011751150112511001075105010251000

Droughts 25th percentile threshold

Droughts 10th percentile threshold

Reorganizati

on from

large

villages to

dispersed

hamlets

Re-

aggrega

tion

Regional

depopulation

Michelle Hegmon

Comparative Case Studies: Resilience, Transformation

and Collapse

Dennis Holloway

Possible Explanations for the Collapse of Early Civilisations

• Tainter - increasing complexity & decreasing resilience

• Friedman - waves of ’globalisation’ to an upper limit of system compatibility • Diamond - inflexibility of core societal values • Scarborough (Maya) - self-organisation - networks of alliances and exchanges; adaptation to dynamics of natural ecosystems. Collapse due to centralisation of power around two super-cities and distortion of network flows.

The 21st Century: A bright future of continued growth? Or…

…saililng towards a global collapse?

The new world of the Anthropocene

The Anthropocene, following the lost world of the Holocene, holds serious challenges for society.

Source: J. Zalasiewicz

“…if we focus on other features of the past than humanity’s progress, we might find a human history marked by crises, regime shifts, disasters, and constantly changing patterns of adjustment to limits and confines. Indeed, this now emerges as a new historical meta-narrative, linking humanity’s creative past with its destructive consequences and nature-culture interplay…”

Sverker Sörlin & Paul Warde 2007

On the techno-scientific approach to progress

Peak Oil: A production or a supply-demand problem?

Sorrell et al. 2009

Oil and food price trends, 1999 - 2011

World Bank Commodity Price Data

FAO Food Price Index

The Human Enterprise: Early Globalised

PREMODERN SOCIETIES

MODERN STATES

GLOBALISING COMMUNITY

1 % EXXON-MOBIL DAIMLER-CHRYSLER MITSUBISHI CITIGROUP

14 %

USA JAPAN SINGAPORE HONG KONG WESTERN EUROPE AUSTRALIA/NZ TAIWAN

5 % SOUTH KOREA (CHINA, INDIA 10%) ESTONIA HUNGARY THAILAND

15 % BRAZIL EGYPT RUSSIA SYRIA (CHINA, INDIA 40%)

65 % ANGOLA (CHINA, INDIA 50%) RWANDA SUDAN ZAIRE

T. Ries, Swedish Institute of International Affairs

Steffen et al. 2004

General Issues: Risk and Vulnerability

Weekly Food Supply

The poor, the marginal, the uneducated and the geographically vulnerable suffer the greatest risks. Risks are projected to be much greater for future generations than for the current generation Source: A.J. McMichael

Steffen et al. 2004

?

NASA GISS 2011

Friedlingstein et al. 2010

Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans, 2005

In August 2002, massive flooding in

Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and

Eastern Europe

January 2003, Canberra, Australia Massive bushfires destroy 500 homes, kill 3 people, injure 300 more

February 2009, Victoria, Australia Massive bushfires destroy several villages, kill 170 people

Have we underestimated how fast the Earth System can change?

K. Steffen

A. Sorteberg

After Schellnhuber 2002

Switch and Choke Points In the Earth System

“Business-as-usual is dead” “This is an externality like none other” “Risks, scales and uncertainties are enormous” “…a big probability of a devastating outcome” “We have to look at non-marginal changes in economics””

Lord Nicholas Stern:

Plenary Presentation, Climate Change Congress, Copenhagen, March 2009

Southern China: Loss of Biological Diversity

Photo: ICIMOD

Biodiversity in the 21st century

– Humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history (medium certainty)

– 10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction (medium to high certainty)

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature

Source: Mann et al. 2003 (EOS)

Image: NASA

’Night Lights’ of Earth

2000

From: Nakicenovic 2002

Simulated Night Lights

2070

From: Nakicenovic 2002

Simulated Night Lights

2

4

3

5

6

1

0

Glo

bal

T

emper

ature

(°

C)

IPCC Projections 2100 AD

N.H

. T

emp

erat

ure

(°C

)

0

0.5

1

-0.5

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Now

“Committed” Climate Change

Loss of Greenland ice sheet

Earth System moves to a new state; modern civilisation collapses

Large biodiversity loss; coral reefs disappear

Feedbacks push climate change higher; abrupt changes much more likely; massive impacts to humans

Petit et al. 1999

Variation of CO2, T, CH4 in the late Quaternary

The Earth as a complex system

Scheffer 2009

Petit et al. 1999; Keeling and Whorf 2000

Atmospheric CO2: outside the Holocene envelope

The Earth as a complex system

Scheffer 2009

Anthropocene

Holocene Pre-Anthropocene events

Anthropocene Stage 3?

Anthropocene Stages 1 and 2

2

4

3

5

6

1

0

Glo

bal

T

emper

ature

(°

C)

IPCC Projections 2100 AD

N.H

. Tem

pera

ture

(°

C)

0

0.5

1

-0.5

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Now

“Committed” Climate Change

Earth System moves to a new state; modern civilisation collapses?

IGBP PAGES

Time

Ris

k o

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pse

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eg

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of

un

-su

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bil

ity Present

Sustainability Target

Short-term Pragmatism

Short-term policy actions

Long-term and foundational issues

Fischer, Manning et al. 2007

The Sustainability Gap

The “Sustainability Hierarchy”…

…rather than the “Triple Bottom Line”

After I. Lowe 2005

Economies

Social Systems

Earth’s Life Support System

Hurt not the earth, neither the sea, nor the trees.

Revelation 7:3, the Holy Bible Most Gracious is Allah, Who reveals Himself In the Qur'an, in man's Intelligence And in the nature around man. Balance and Justice, Goodness and Care, Are the Laws of His Worlds.... Summary from Surah 55, the Holy Qur'an

Perspectives on the Human-Environment Relationship

Without the willow, how to know the beauty of the wind. Lao She, Buddhist monk We're only here for a short amount of time to do what we've been put here to do, which is to look after the country. We're only a tool in the cycle of things. …(we) go out into the world and help keep the balance of nature. It's a big cycle of living with the land, and then eventually going back to it.... Vilma Webb, Noongar People, Australian Aborigines, from: 'Elders: Wisdom from Australia's Indigenous Leaders'

© S

ebas

tião

Sal

gad

o

…The future will depend on the nature of human aspirations, values, preferences and choices…

Sustainability or Collapse?