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Sustainability:Sufficiency and Resiliency
Dr. Matthew J. RealffSchool of Chemical & Biomolecular Engineering
Georgia Institute of TechnologyNational Science Foundation
Talk Objectives
Sufficiency Resiliency
Sustainability
Efficiency?
the logic of sufficiency, Thomas Princen,The MIT Press, 2005
C.S. Holling
Notions Underlying Resiliency
Resiliency as speed of return to equilibrium
Slope of potential well side wall
Less Resilient System
Effort required to perturb system to new steady state.
“Ecological Resiliency”
“Engineering Resiliency”
Idea that more than one steady state exists
Loss of Ecological Resiliency
The slow parameter drift causes the loss of engineering resiliency and ecological resiliency
It is sometimes the case that the system management causes the loss of resiliency.
Smaller perturbations lead to shifts in stability
E.g. Spraying of forests for insects.
Ecological System Behaviour
Clear Turbid
GrazingFish
Plankton
Herbivorous Zooplankton
Steady State “Flipping”
Planktonic AlgaeMacrophytes
Lake Systems
R1 R2
Hysteresis
Overall Ecological SystemResource Patterns
Rapid Colonization Conservation
Creative DestructionReorganization
Establish type and size of buckets
Empty the buckets
Disturbance
Fill the buckets
Positive Feedback strengthens connections
What buckets are in play?
Key role of diversity
Adaptive Cycle Outcomes
• Cyclical behaviour of stocks and flows•Oscillatory but long term stable system•Resilient to change
“Surprise is inevitable but the system absorbs them”A
B
• Flipping between different steady states
“Surprise is inevitable, system is disrupted to a new steady state”
These behaviours may require radically different management
Adaptive Capacity
Surprises are inevitable
Knowledge is always incomplete
Human interactions will always be evolving
Active Learning is required
“most policies are really questions masquerading as answers”
Structure action to evaluate hypotheses, make learning more efficient
PSE has delivered point solutions
PSE to deliver adaptive capacity?
Influencing the behaviour of a probabilistic system over time.
GOAL
Molecular Systems
Supply Chains
Coupled natural and human systems
Statistical averaging helps, samples many states, and many states acceptable, “under actuated.”
Repeated transactions help, samples states, many players
Rules of physics, not perfectly known
Contractual Rules, not perfectly designed
Interactions over many generations,
Rules incompletely understood
The role of connectivityHow does interconnectedness help?
•Indian Ocean Tsunami, Katrina, Kashmir Earthquake
Interconnection enables resources outside region to be utilized
•Financial•Human•Political
Enormous Impact and Benefit
Where can interconnectedness hurt?
•Co-location of assets for infrastructure operation•e.g. refineries and pipelines
•Choke points of interconnection•Port of New Orleans
•Agents that require connections to spread
Hurricane Katrina
Ports
Missippi Shipping Channel
Refinery Operations
Gulf of Mexico Oil Production
Eastern US Gasoline Pipeline
Mobilization of Industrial Pollutants
Agricultural Shipments
Industrial shipments
Long term channel changes
Short term oil stocks
Long term oil pipeline
repair
Petroleum Supply
Disruption
Energy Markets
Gambling Industry
Insurance Industry
Health Effects
Mosquito Breeding
Electrical Supply
Disruption
Airline Travel
Supply Chain Disruptions
Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Flooding
Heating Oil Prices
EPA Regulation Relaxaton on
Gasoline Standards
Emergency Relief
Agricultural Production
Oysters
Chickens
Missippi
Cotton
Market Disruptions
Agricultural Markets
Industrial Markets
Communications
Battery Powered Device
Recharging
Cellphone Towers
911 Call Centers
Refugees
Airline fuel Prices
Northwest
Delta
Flight Cancellations
Continental
New Orleans
Water Food
Medical Services
Floodwalls and levees
Goverment Agencies
Overlapping and Unclear
Responsibilities
Communications Disruptions
Changing Plans Leading to failure to dispatch relief
convoys
Tourist and Convention
Industry
Phone Lines
Helicopter Landing
Sites
Financial Markets
New Orleans Bonds
Municipal Revenues
Evacuation Planning
Satellite Trucks
Ham Radio Operators
Emergency Generators
Diesel Fuel Shortages
Sugar
Sugar Imports
Gasoline Prices
Natural Gas Prices
Availability of Dry Land
Retail Markets
Walmart
Shell
Displacement of People
Mobile Home Industry Boost
Shipments from
Europe
Refinery Repair
Temporary Office Space
Crow's Foot
Transportation Disruption
Bauxite
Failure of Law and Order
Loss of Wetland
Intensity of Storm
Zinc
Coffee
Construction Materials
Lumber
Bureaucratic Failures
Lack of Imagination
Outsourcing of Disaster
Planning and response
Rebound/Recovery
Vehicle Market
Drinking water contamination
Typhoid
West Nile Virus
Medical Equipment Operation
Kidney Dialysis
Ventilators
Diabetics
Water Quality
Social & Ecological Resilence
VOIP
Mud
Central New
Orleans
Eastern Districts
Hurricance
Predicted
New
Orleans
Mayor
Office
Refinery
Stocks
Entergy
MacroEconomic Effects
Inflation
Gasoline
Usage
Emigration
Who Has
Authority?
Medium
Term
Redevelopment
ExxonMobil
BHP
Corn
Insurance
Insurance for
Oil
Installations
Equipment
Restoration
Problems
Katrina ~ Linkages between Infrastructure
Connections between Infrastructures as identified by analysis of Wall Street Journal Articles in two weeks following Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina
Ports
Missippi Shipping Channel
Refinery Operations
Gulf of Mexico Oil Production
Eastern US Gasoline Pipeline
Agricultural Shipments
Petroleum Supply
Disruption
Gambling Industry
Insurance Industry
Health Effects
Mosquito Breeding
Flooding
EPA Regulation Relaxaton on
Gasoline Standards
Emergency Relief
Agricultural Production
Communications
Battery Powered Device
Recharging
Cellphone Towers
911 Call Centers
Refugees
Northwest
Delta
Water Food
Medical Services
Floodwalls and levees
Tourist and Convention
Industry
Phone Lines
Helicopter Landing
Sites
Diesel Fuel Shortages
Availability of Dry Land
Displacement of People
Shipments from
Europe
Transportation Disruption
Outsourcing of Disaster
Planning and response
West Nile Virus
Medical Equipment Operation
Kidney Dialysis
VOIP
Hurricance
Predicted
ExxonMobil
Part of the Infrastructure Interactions
Connectivity & VulnerabilitySpreading by connection
• Cascading “failures” due to load shifts•Electrical networks•Water networks•Transportation networks•Natural gas networks
• Infection by contact•Disease spread
•SARS•foot and mouth•Bird flu
•Information spread•Markets•Terrorist cells•Rumors
•Computer virus spread
Behaviour of ONE of these networks is complex
Need to understand how these networks interact
Research Challenge: How to develop models and decision making support for long term infrastructure choices.
Resiliency
Efficiency & Society•Resource Use and access have been fundamental driving forced for societal organization
• A companion principle is efficiency ~ more efficient resource extraction is a common pattern of development
Selective logging vs clear cutting
Purse seine vs drift nets
History of Efficiency
Aristotle Effectiveness = Efficiency
Matching of skills to task, means to ends
Middle Ages
Industrial Age
Modern Age
Effectiveness
Efficiency
Managerial Principle“The Age of Efficiency” Benefit to cost ratio
ratio =Physical constraint
Output
“The Age of Craft”
Greater Good Increased Productivity
Efficiency as RatioIn general there is no principle for choosing the ratio
Dollar Profit
Barrel of Oil
MJ of Extracted Energy
Barrel of OilVs.
Bushels of grain
Acre
Capital Expenditure
Bushel of grainVs.
We choose simple ratios
Children/Classroom Learning/ChildVs.
We assume “all else being equal”
Higher Efficiency More Good
Given Bad
Whose Good?
Who accepts the bad?
Efficiency & Extent
Miles/Gallon
Assumes by increasing fuel efficiency you will improve environmental impact
Ignores the extent of driving activity and how increases in efficiency change behavior
- Is Email a more efficient means of communication?
My (sent messages/hr) increases
Everyone’s efficiency increases
My received messages/hr increases are far greater (Gain > 1)
Network Externality may overwhelm efficiency gains as a sender
Street Light Efficiency in UK
Lamp Efficiency (lumens/watt)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Lamp Efficiency(lumens/watt)
1764% increase in lamp efficiency
Sodium Lamp
UK Street Light ConsumptionStreet Lamp Electrical Consumption
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Street Lamp ElectricalConsumption
3530% increase in electricity consumption
The underlying reason?Lumens/Mile
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Lumens/Mile
35% increase in lighted miles47374% increase in lumens/mile
Have we engineered an efficient solution to lighting roadways?
Next Technology Shift?
Sodium/Mercury Lamps
White LED’s
?
Will the next increase in efficiency cause any decrease in electrical consumption?
Efficiency
Time
Age of SufficiencyReconciling to a Finite Planet
•Better science, better pricing, better enforcement
“more of the same”
•Long term societal investment
•Sense of excess
•Environment as life support
•Self organization and innovation for restraint
Change the Terms of the Argument
SustainabilityResiliency is needed
Highly interconnected state of human affairs
Significant accumulations of resources
Translates to management of surprises through adaptive capacity.
Sufficiency is needed
Sufficiency can avoid the trap of racing resource consumption.
Racing resource consumption leads to reduction of adaptive capacity and weakening of resiliency.
What does a Sufficient and Resilient Process Industry look like?
A Sufficient Process Industry
•Must measure its extensive variables
•Must examine the quality and extent of its connections to infrastructures.
•Must understand how societal positive feedback mechanisms can be managed in light of environmental and ecological constraints.
Increased demand for computation
Reduced feature sizes on silicon
Increased purity of materials
Increased demand for energy and water
What is a sufficient silicon industry?
Resiliency and Sufficiency
Water
Land
Atmosphere
Agricultural Infrastructure
Chemical InfrastructureFuels Infra
structu
re
Hydrocarbons
FinancialHuman
EcologicalInfrastructure
Is buffered against surprise disturbances in basic resources
Has the ability to recapitalize on its resources during creative destruction
Implications for PSE
• Conceptualizing and modeling the interactions between infrastructures.– Modes of Failure (cascading, correlated)– Nature of Feedbacks
• Formulating resiliency and sufficiency objectives for process systems
• Design methods for process networks to recover from shocks and surprises.
Predict, prescribe, advocate