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First National Communication First National Communication to the to the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

SWAZILAND’S

National Report on Climate ChangeNational Report on Climate Change

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Swaziland’s First National Communication to the UNFCCC

The Kingdom of Swaziland has accepted themounting scientific evidence that human activi-ties are interfering with natural systems, particu-larly global climate change. The country has joinedother nations of the world in the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC’s) coordinated effortto better understand, not only aspects related to caus-es of this change, but also the likely extent of itsimpacts on various aspects of our livelihood, how wemay contend with it and how we can help curb itsexacerbation by limiting the emissions from thesources of these gases.

It is well understood that the climate system is vastand that human interactions with it present com-plexities that are not yet fully understandable.These uncertainties notwithstanding, no countrycan justify reason for inactivity especially in the lightof the high stakes involved and the reality thatdamage caused today may turn out to be irre-versible should the assumptions hold. Policymakersin Swaziland are keen to accept expert advicebased on objective scientific, technical and socio-economic information available on climate changein general and how Swaziland will fair in it, partic-ularly in future years.

The study presented in this report attempts toquantitatively expound on the country’s current aswell as future position as pertains to issues andeffects of global warming and climate change. Thishas been done in the context of several ofSwaziland’s unique national circumstances andcapabilities in playing an effective role in interna-

tional cooperation towards the fulfilment of com-mitments outlined in articles of the Convention onClimate Change of which we are Party.

The highlights of this study show that whilstSwaziland’s emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)in per-capita Carbon Dioxide (CO2) equivalents ismodest, the country also commands a rather largeCO2 sink owing to its man-made forests which are

amongst the largest in the world. We can proudlydeclare that this huge sink capacity we have,already by far outweighs our gross annual emissionof CO2 as revealed in results of the inventoriesundertaken in this study.

The country has not stopped at this positive devel-opment alone. In its pursuit to thrive as an environ-mentally conscious nation, the country has over thepast few years developed and enacted several poli-cies aimed at ensuring that environmental issues ingeneral and climate in particular are taken into con-sideration in all planning and developmentalefforts. This we do with a commitment to finding“win-win” solutions that address not only the con-cerns of global climate change and its impacts, butalso the country’s requirement for development inall sectors of its economy so as to lift the standardof life of the populace. The nation’s customs anddevelopmental priorities are thus enshrined inpeaceful co-existence with our environment andachieving for the country an acceptable level ofsustainable development for all in this the TwentyFirst Century and beyond.

The Hon. T.M. MlangeniMinister for Public Works and Transport

FOREWORD

PageProject team 4List of abbreviations 5

1.0 THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 61.1 BACKGROUND 61.2 SWAZILAND IN CONTEXT 61.3 SWAZILAND’S GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 81.4 IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION 91.5 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF STEPS 11

2.0 NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 122.1 GEOGRAPHY 122.2 CLIMATE 142.3 POPULATION 152.4 THE ECONOMY 16

2.4.1 Economic performance 162.4.2 Sectors of the economy 172.4.3 Country developmental strategies 182.4.4 System of national accounts: GDP projections 19

2.5 AGRICULTURE 202.6 FORESTRY 212.7 INDUSTRY & MANUFACTURING 222.8 MAJOR LAND-USE ACTIVITIES 232.9 TRANSPORT 24

3.0 GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES 253.1 INTRODUCTION 253.2 METHODOLOGY 253.3 NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS OVERVIEW 273.4 GWP EFFECTS ON TOTAL EMISSIONS 273.5 EMISSIONS OF CO2, CH4 AND N2O 273.6 EMISSIONS OF OTHER GHGS (PCFS, SF6 AND HFCS) 283.7 EMISSIONS OF PRECURSORS (CO, NOX AND NMVOCS) 283.8 EMISSIONS IN CO2 EQUIVALENTS 283.9 CO2 REMOVALS 293.10 INTERNATIONAL BUNKERS 293.11 UNCERTAINTIES AND FURTHER WORK 29

4.0 VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION 304.1 INTRODUCTION 304.2 FORESTRY 30

4.2.1 Background 304.2.2 Land tenure and land-use 314.2.3 Ecosystems 324.2.4 Climatic requirements for forests 334.2.5 Methodology 344.2.6 Results and outputs 364.2.7 Adaptation 39

4.3 HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES 404.3.1 Introduction 404.3.2 Baseline scenario 404.3.3 Water resources development 414.3.4 Current water demand 414.3.5 Irrigation water demand 424.3.6 Industrial and domestic water demand 43

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

3.7 Water quality 434.3.8 Usutu drainage basin 434.3.9 Methodology 444.3.10 Results of the effect of climate change on water resources 474.3.11 Interpretation of results 494.3.12 Adaptation options 504.3.13 Conclusions 52

4.4 AGRICULTURE 534.4.1 Introduction 534.4.2 Baseline information 534.4.3 Methods of estimating effects of climate change on crop yield 584.4.4 Results 594.4.5 Expected effect of enviromental change to on other crops 604.4.6 Adaptation 614.4.7 Conclusion 61

5.0 MITIGATION OPTIONS ANALYSIS 635.1 INTRODUCTION 63

5.1.1 Enabling activities for the preparation of the National Communication 63

5.2 ENERGY 645.2.1 Baseline development 645.2.2 Methodology and assumptions 645.2.3 Population and household sizes 645.2.4 Household energy mix and GDP 645.2.5 Energy intensity and demand projections 645.2.6 CO2 emissions projections 655.2.7 Mitigation in the energy sector 65

5.3 FORESTRY 665.3.1.Baseline and mitigation analysis 665.3.2 Methodology 665.3.3 Results 685.3.4 Forest Protection 71

6.0 POLICIES AND MEASURES 726.1 OBJECTIVE 726.2 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 726.3 THE ENVIRONMENT 726.4 ENERGY 72

6.1.1 Fuel and energy 726.1.2 Supply 736.1.3 Rural energy 73

6.5 TRANSPORT 746.5.1 Roads and road transport 74

6.6 FOREST RESOURCES 746.6.1 Forest under management 756.6.2 Afforestation and reforestation 75

6.7 AGRICULTURE 756.8 INTERNATIONAL LEVEL COMMITMENT 756.9 EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESS 76

REFERENCES 77

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Project CoordinatorShongwe Samuel S. (Mr.)

SupervisorDlamini Emmanuel D. (Mr.)

ResearchersDlamini Babazile H. (Ms.)Dlamini Mgidi D. (Prof.)Dlamini Ntfombiyenkhosi D. (Ms.)Fakundze Patience N. (Dr.)Khumalo Melusi (Dr.)Magagula-Gumbi Lungile (Ms.)Manyatsi Absalom M. (Dr.)Mathunjwa Mduduzi M. (Dr.)Matondo Jonathan I. (Prof.) Msibi Kenneth (Mr.)Shongwe M.M. (Dr.)Sukati Nonhlanhla A. (Dr.)Thwala Justice M. (Dr.)

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Project Team

PROJECT TEAM

AEEI Autonomous Energy Efficiency ImprovementsCCCM Canadian Climate Centre ModelCDM Clean Development MechanismCEST Condensing Extraction Steam TurbinesCFCs ChlorofluorocarbonsCGEs Computable General Equilibrium modelsCH4 MethaneCO Carbon MonoxideCO2 Carbon DioxideCOMAP Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis ProcessCRC Constitutional Review CommissionCSO Central Statistics OfficeDANCED Danish Cooperation for Environment and DevelopmentDSSAT Decision Support System for Agrotechnical TransferE EmalangeniESKOM South African Electricity CompanyEU European UnionFDI Foreign Direct InvestmentGCM Global Circulation ModelGDP Gross Domestic ProductGEF Global Environment FacilityGFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory modelGg GigagrammesGHG Greenhouse GasGNP Gross National ProductGWP Global Warming PotentialHa HectareHFCs HydrofluorocarbonsITF Individual Tenure FarmIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeKm2 Square kilometresKt KilotonneLEAP Long Range Energy Alternative Planning LPG Liquid Petroleum GasM3 Cubic MetresMAGICC Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate ChangeMCM Million Cubic MetresMOAC Ministry of Agriculture and CooperativesMT Metric TonneNDS National Development StrategyNDPs National Development PlansNGO Non-Governmental OrganizationsNMVOCs Non-Methane Volatile Organic CompoundsN2O Nitrous OxideNOX Oxides of NitrogenPCFs PerfluorocarbonsPET Potential EvapotranspirationRDAPs Rural Development Area ProgrammesSACU Southern African Customs UnionSADC Southern African Development CommunitySCENGEN Scenario GENeratorSEA Swaziland Environment AuthoritySEAP Swaziland Environment Action PlanSEI-B Stockholm Environmental Institute in BostonSNEP Swaziland National Energy PolicySNL Swazi Nation LandTDL Title Deed Land UKTR United Kingdom Meteorological Office Hardley Centre Transient modelUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUNEP United Nations Environment ProgrammeUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeWatBal Water Balance model

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List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

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1.1 BACKGROUND

Swaziland was amongst the 150 nations thatsigned the UN Framework Convention on ClimateChange during the convening of the UnitedNations Conference on Environment andDevelopment (Earth Summit) in Rio de Janeiro inJune 1992. The country subsequently ratified theConvention, becoming Party to it in 1996.

The Convention process was the culmination ofinternational concern on the global increase ofgreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly due tohuman activities since the industrial revolution. Thisincrease his been directly linked to the threat ofglobal climate change and its associated impacts ofincrease in temperatures, rise in sea levels, changesin precipitation, extreme weather events and otherweather-related effects. As an objective of theConvention therefore, a concerted global effort isamassed to achieve a stabilisation of GHG concen-trations in the atmosphere at a level that would pre-vent dangerous anthropogenic interference withthe climate system.

Swaziland, as are most developing countries, is aminor contributor of GHG emissions. The totalAfrican share of carbon emissions for exampleaccounted for only 3.2% of the world's total in1992. Inspite of this fact, according to theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)report, Africa has been described as the continentmost vulnerable to the likely impacts of climatechange. It is in the country’s interest therefore topursue all intervention options that can contributeto limiting effects of these impacts with similarresults of achieving more efficient use of resourcesand of the systems employed.

In compiling her National Communication,Swaziland seeks to comply with provisions ofArticles 4 and 12 of the Convention which enumer-ate commitments and implementation issues. In thecountry’s willingness to contribute to the protectionof the climate system it's intervention is to followafter the Convention's guiding principles, namelythe consideration of Swaziland as a developingcountry Party with special circumstances, the extentof its capabilities, regards for the common but dif-

ferentiated responsibilities, and equity.

The National Communication is therefore the coun-try’s preliminary attempt to present an overview,with respect of the base year 1994, of:• Its national social and economic context on the

basis of which it will address climate changeand its adverse effects and within which vari-ous interventions could be made;

• A national inventory of anthropogenic emis-sions by sources and removals by sinks ofgreenhouse gases using the IPCC 1996 RevisedGuidelines;

• An assessment of the country’s potential vul-nerability to climate change and approaches foradapting to such change; and

• A general description of steps taken or envis-aged by the country to implement theConvention.

1.2 SWAZILAND IN CONTEXT

Swaziland is a small country covering an area of 17360 in southeastern Africa. Within the limited areaof about 193 kilometres north to south, and 145kilometres east to west, every feature of Africa’s ter-rain, with the exception of the desert, is to befound. Great variation in landform characterises thecountry’s cross-section ranging from steep hills andan escarpment in the west to gentle undulatingplains and basins in the eastern interior.

The ClimateThe country enjoys a climate which is generally sub-tropical with summer rains (75 percent) falling in theperiod from October to March. Further variations inclimate occur along the cross section of the countryfollowing the topological features of the landform.Marked variations in the climate system do occurfrom year to year giving rise to extreme events thatsometimes impact negatively on the country’s natu-ral and socio-economic environments.

Events of prolonged drought spells in some yearsand of significant flooding by tropical storms inothers are features of the region’s climate that haveconstantly been witnessed. The types of human

The Executive Summary

Chapter

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The Excecutive Summary

activities have mainly been dictated by both theprevalent climate and the topology of each respec-tive area.

PopulationThe population of Swaziland was in 1994 standingat 870,000, with a corresponding annual growthrate of 3.2% which has since been on decline. Thedemographic distribution is such that 25% of thepopulation lives in urban areas and urban migrationoccurs at 3 to 5% per annum. Life expectancy is60 for men and 53 years for women.

It is expected that by the year 2030, approximately70% of the population will be living in urban orperi-urban areas. The population has a highdependency ratio owing to the fact that 60% iscomposed of people under the age of 21 years.These are some of the issues the country has tocontend with in mobilising support for its develop-ment priorities of accelerating economic growth,alleviating poverty, improving social services, andensuring sustainable use of scarce naturalresources.

The EconomyBeing the smallest country in the sub-region,Swaziland’s economy is closely tied to that of its larg-er neighbour, the Republic of South Africa. It isstrongly export-oriented with limited domestic mar-kets. Over the period 1968-96, the country’s econo-my saw growth averaging 6.5% annually. Total GDPat cost factor in 1994 was E 3047 million (about $900 million) and the corresponding per-capita GDPwas E 4308 ($ 1240 ). The impressive economicgrowth slowed down as from the 1980’s, a trendattributed to several factors amongst which aredeclining foreign direct investment inflows, uncer-tainty over the recent political developments in thesub-region, and most notably effects of the unusual-ly long drought conditions spanning the period1989-92.

Swaziland, together with South Africa, Botswana,Lesotho and Namibia belong to a regional agree-ment named the Southern African Customs Union(SACU). This pool has historically supplied forSwaziland, 50% of her public revenues hence thesingle most important source supporting GDP. Theagreement is currently under negotiation and it isyet unclear how its future management will affectshare proportions of member states.

Apart from the SACU, agriculture has traditionallybeen the cornerstone of country’s economy, anattribute that renders the latter particularly vulner-

able to impacts of climate change on this sector.The post-independence era has however seen ashift of the economy out of agriculture into indus-try and services with the associated increases inenergy demand and related resource inputs.

Nevertheless, to the extent that a large portion of themanufacturing sector is agro-based (mainly sugar,wood pulp and citrus canning), the base of the econ-omy is therefore still agricultural. A meaningful diver-sification of economic activity areas is necessarilydesirable if the country is to reduce its level of vulner-ability due to over reliance on climate-sensitive sec-tors.

The highly regulated sugar industry is one leadingexport earner for Swaziland. Three major estatesoperate mills with a combined output of over 450000 metric tonnes (MT) and bring in earnings ofover E 520 million ($150 million) (1994). Next arecitrus fruits whose production averages some 70000 MT mainly for export markets. In the forestsector, the country’s vast pine growing areas makeup one of the largest man-made forests in theworld and cover some 66 000 hectares (6% of thecountry’s total land area). The trees grown here aremainly used to produce unbleached kraft pulp forworld markets too. Other export commoditiesinclude beverages, coal, cotton, meat and timber.

The Convention provides for special considerationsto developing country Parties with specific needsand concerns arising from the adverse effects of cli-mate change and/or the implementation ofresponse measures where certain circumstancesapply. Some of these circumstances of concern thatapply in the context of Swaziland as listed in Article4.8 are the following five:• Countries with arid and semi arid areas,

forested areas and areas liable to forestdecay;

• Countries prone to natural disasters; • Countries with areas liable to drought

and desertification; • Countries whose economies are highly

dependent on income generated from theproduction, processing and export, and/oron consumption of fossil fuels and associ-ated energyintensive products; and

• Land-locked and transit countries.Swaziland’s small per-capita GHG emissions and it’sdisadvantaged position due to the precedingnational characteristics will be important factors toconsider in the formulation of strategies to fulfil thecountry’s developmental objectives while satisfyingthe Convention’s requirements.

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1.3 SWAZILAND’S GREENHOUSE GASINVENTORY

A national inventory of anthropogenic emissions bysources and removals by sinks of the main green-house gases was compiled for the country for thebase year 1994 in accordance with Article 4.1(a). TheRevised 1996 IPCC Guidelines were used for this task.

The major source categories considered as provided inthe guidelines are energy, industrial processes, agricul-ture, landuse and forestry, and waste. The inventoryresults reveal that the country’s total emission of car-bon dioxide (CO2) amounted to 874 kilotonnes (Kt).For the other two direct GHGs, methane (CH4) andnitrous oxide (N2O), the amounts were even lower at64 and 1 Kt respectively.

Information on emissions of precursors (gaseswhich have an indirect effect on climate) and someof the fully fluorinated compounds, was also quan-tified in the inventory.

Emissions of Carbon DioxideThe 874 Kt energy sector CO2 emission accounted tovirtually all the country's CO2 production. This repre-sents a comparatively small per-capita CO2 value of0.87 tonnes. This emission was predominatelyderived from fuel combustion from these sectors inthe following order: transport (50%), manufacturing(32%), household (15%) and commercial (3%).

Within energy, the transport sub-sector whichaccounts for half of all emissions is itself dominat-ed by fuel combustion by modes of road trans-portation. On households, the emissions emanatefrom the predominant use of coal liquefied petrole-um gas (LPG) and to some extent kerosene forheating and cooking especially in rural areas whereabout two thirds of the population reside.

In manufacturing, the emissions are mostly fromthe traditional reliance on coal for steam genera-tion especially in the sugar, pulp, food and bever-ages industries. When applying global warmingpotentials, the country's contribution in terms ofcarbon dioxide equivalents amounted to 6.33 mil-lion tonnes. The share of carbon dioxide is there-fore 13.8% of the total carbon dioxide equivalent.

Emissions of methaneOf the total 64.4 Kt methane (CH4) emissions fromsources in the country, the agriculture sector was thelargest contributor with 40.5 Kt (66.9%). Enteric fer-

mentation from domestic livestock (substantial herdsof cattle and goats) accounted for most of theseemissions. The waste sector followed with 16.5 Kt(27.3%), which came from industrial waste out ofthe production of beer, pulp and paper.

Emissions derived from the all energy sector were7.2 Kt (5.5%). This resulted from fugitive fuel emis-sions in coal mining operations and the combustionof firewood for cooking and heating. Insignificantemissions were derived from on-site burning with-in the land-use change and forestry sectors. Themethane carbon dioxide equivalent accounted to0.13 million tonnes, making up 2.1% of the coun-try’s total.

Emissions of Nitrous OxideThe country’s N2O emissions were a paltry 1.3 Kt.Most of this amount (93%) resulted from the limingof agricultural soils, agricultural waste burning andsavannah burning within the agriculture sector.

There were minute emissions in the all energy sec-tors of manufacturing and households arising fromfirewood combustion. This gas had a carbon diox-ide equivalent figure of 0.42 million tonnes andthus accounting for 6.6 % of the country's total.

Emissions of Precursors and FlourinatedCompounds Emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOX), carbonmonoxides (CO) and non-methane volatile com-pounds (NMVOCs) were estimated at 19.9, 523and 80 kilotonnes respectively. The largest contri-bution of NOX came from agriculture (60%) andfuel combustion of firewood under the residentialsector (38%). CO emissions emanated from similarsources whilst NMVOC emissions largely came fromindustrial processes.

The country's single largest contribution in terms ofcarbon dioxide equivalent was observed in thehydrofloucarbons HFCs category. This yielded some4.9 million tonnes amounting to 77.5% of thecountry's total. Such a level is attributed to the factthat the country has a significant refrigerator pro-duction plant for export markets. The gases weretherefore used in the refrigerator units as well as inair conditioners, fire extinguishers and to a lesserextent on solvents and aerosols.

Carbon dioxide removalsThe inventory revealed GHG sinks in the country'sland-use change and forestry sector. As mentioned,the managed forest plantations are significantly

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large, hence providing for substantial removals fora country the size of Swaziland. On the emissionsside, this sector produced some 2 910 Kt CO2, 60%of which were from commercial harvests, 25%from off-site burning through firewood combus-tion, and lesser amounts from liming of soils andother activities.

In contrast to the emission state of this sector, thesink capacity amounted to 6 168 Kt carbon dioxideremoval. The predominant carbon uptake offering99.5% of the removals was by trees from commer-cial plantations including non-forest trees in towns.The remainder was from abandoned areas.

On aggregate therefore, taking into account theamounts of emissions and sinks in all sectors thecountry's final GHG budget is of a net CO2 sink. CO2 emissions totalled some 3 784 Kt whilst thesink capacity was 6 168 Kt. The net balance infavour of sinks was a substantial 2 384 Kt. Such anachievement in GHG removal terms by the countryis considered significant in fulfiling the objectives ofthe Convention to tackle the very cause of climatechange.

1.4 IMPACTS AND ADAPTATIONThe high vulnerability of Africa to various manifes-tations of climate change has been confirmed inreports of the IPCC and other publications. In thecontext of Swaziland, the sectors that are climatesensitive and hence highly at risk are:• Water resources, especially in international

shared basins;• Agriculture, in issues of food security at

risk from declines in production in anuncertain climate;

• Natural resources and biodiversity, onfuture types of ecosystems, tree growth,distribution and mortality of species; and

• Health, on vector-borne diseases as theyrelate to anticipated changes in climateparameters, notably precipitation and tem-perature.

Climate ChangeSwaziland does not have sufficiently long instru-mental climate data to reliably construct past cli-mates. As a result the wider temperature record forAfrica south of the equator is used to present theclimate of the twentieth century for the sub-region.Such an analysis shows a warming of almost 1oChaving occurred between 1900 and the 1980s andan average warming of 0.05 0C per decade over thealmost 100 year period.

According to projections by the IIPCC, if currenttrends of GHG emissions remain unchanged, GHGconcentrations in the atmosphere will double bythe year 2075 with the result of global tempera-tures increasing by about 2.5 0C. Any future climatechange will most certainly have some form ofimpacts, not only on conditions of the physicalenvironment, but also on the overall socio-eco-nomic aspects of life.

As a first step to assess the extent of changes in thefuture climate of the country, a current climate base-line was established from available meteorologicalrecords. This was based on a thirty-year period(1961-1990) of data obtained from meteorologicalinstruments. The current climate classification for thecountry is therefore a humid and subtropical one.

In determining future climate scenarios, a simpleclimate model called MAGICC combined with aregional climate database called SCENGEN wasused. A choice of some three General CirculationModels (GCMs) were employed in running the sim-ulations based on how well they represent the cur-rent climate, their age and their resolution. Thesewere the UKTR, GFDL and CCC-EQ.

The projections from all the models point to tem-perature increases in future years though with vary-ing magnitudes. Precipitation projections on theother hand give mixed results. In general, the mod-els project total annual rainfall amounts by 2075falling below those received under current climateby single digit percentages. The monthly situationprojects amounts that are higher than those undercurrent climate in the late spring to mid summerperiod (October to January) For the rest of themonths of the year projections give future rainfallamounts that are lower than under current climate.

As most of the country’s annual rainfall is receivedover the summer period, an increase in precipita-tion over this period is likely to result in floodingconditions. The projections of winter rainfall reduc-tion also pose the problem of higher possibilities ofdrought occurrences. Other meteorological condi-tions that are related to either temperature or rain-fall are likely to be equally affected. These are theinitial risks that the country is likely to face in a cli-mate change situation.

Impacts on forests and woodland resourcesForests are an important resource in Swazilandbecause of their value in a variety of applications.Some of the value derived from the different tree


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species (exotic and indigenous) are as follows: com-mercially as a source of revenue, culturally for cere-monial use, health-wise in medicinal requirements,and nutritionally in providing food supplements torural communities. It is on the basis of these that anassessment of climate change impacts on this sectorwas considered important to undertake.

The forest species selected for the assessment weretwo exotic ones (pinus and eucalyptus) and fourindigenous ones (combretum, syzygium cordatum,sclerocarya birrea and pterocarpus angolensis).

EcosystemsIt was established that Swaziland is currently charac-terised by two ecosystem types. One is the subtropicalmoist forest which occurs on the high lying westernparts, and the other is the subtropical dry forest cov-ering the rest of the eastern half of country.

To assess the impacts of climate change on theseecosystems, future climate scenarios for the countrywere used as generated from the selected threeglobal climate models. These scenarios in generalpoint to a future climate featuring country wideincreases in temperatures and some varying pat-terns in seasonal rainfall.

The current and projected ecosystem types wereassessed by applying the Holdridge Life ZoneClassification Model on the climate scenariosobtained thus giving the potential land cover foreach location. The results show a westward shiftand shrinking in size of both the areas covered bythe subtropical moist and subtropical dry forests inthe future. Furthermore the country is projected tosee the introduction of a tropical very dry foresttype of ecosystem in the eastern flanks taking asmuch as up to one fifth of the total land area.

Tree growthThe vulnerability of tree species to climate changewas assessed with applying the Forest GAP modelon the climate scenarios. Simulations of future dis-tributions, tree growth and mortality of specieswere made based on environmental conditions. The general conclusion is that for both exotic treespecies biomass production is likely to increases inthe future compared to those being realised undercurrent climate. In terms of stem sizes, projectionsare that these will be slightly smaller under climatechange and as expected, more individuals will fallunder the smallest diameter ranges (0-10cm).

As for the four indigenous species, the biomassperformance shows mixed results but with more

tendency towards a general reduction. This factmay be attributed to the expected increase infuture temperatures in the areas where thesespecies strive coupled with the already low rainfallamounts which would cause high evapotranspira-tion and hence low overall water availability for theplants. The sclerocarya species is also likely to dom-inate over the three others whilst syzigium is likelyto be compromised by climate change.

Impacts on Water ResourcesThe future performance of climate will most certainlyhave a primary effect on water resources and as suchmake this sector key in impact assessment studies.Thestudy was made to focus on one river, the Great Usutumainly because of the great socio-economic signifi-cance of this basin, being one within which aboutthree quarters of the country’s population lives.

The response of the Usutu river to climate changewas evaluated using outputs of the three GCMs(GFDL, UKTR, and CCC-EQ) The results obtainedwere then used as inputs to the WatBall modelwhich is an integrated rainfall-runoff model forforecasting stream flow.

The model runs gave projections up to the year2075 for this river. In summary, the model projectsstream flows that are higher than those under cur-rent climate in the late spring to mid summer peri-od (October to January). For the rest of the monthsof the year projections give future flows that aresubstantially lower than those of correspondingmonths under the current climate.

In terms of total annual runoff, the GCMs give anoverall average reduction in runoff ranging from 2to 6% in a normal year and even higher for dryyears. Such changes will translate to increased pos-sibilities of flooding in the rainy season due to high-er flows and drought-related conditions in winterdue to low flows. As the projections depict anoverall reduction in annual runoff, the drought con-ditions are expected to be more pronounced andfrequent features of future climate than shall bethe floods. Effects of this will likely find its way intogroundwater recharges and salinity as well as damcapacities.

Impacts on AgricultureAgricultural production, which is one of the coun-try’s leading contributor to GDP is very sensitive toweather variations. To assess the performance ofthree major crops under the present climate as wellas under projected future conditions (2025), the

Decision Support System for Agrotechnical Transfer(DSSAT3) was employed.

The general observation was that for the maize crop,most of the country could be unsuitable for itsgrowth since yields are estimated to decrease consid-erably. In the other regions yields could be improvedby changing the planting season from the traditionalsecond week of October to the second week ofAugust. For sorghum and beans, yields are also pro-jected to decrease in general with the exception ofthe western parts where these are currently notgrown extensively.

1.5 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF STEPS

Mitigation OptionsAn attempt was made to elaborate on steps thathave either been taken or envisaged by the countryto implement the Convention. The mitigationoptions considered were mainly centred in theEnergy and Forestry sectors as these are wheremost opportunities for intervention are.

In energy, mitigation would be meaningful on boththe supply and end-use.

The supply side:Electricity generation through cogeneration by theuse of high-pressure steam turbines burningbagasse and wood-pulp residue as input fuel.End-use side:

º Energy efficient boilers, and electric motors

º Matching electric supply to demand

º Improved maintenance and inspection of motor vehicles

º Gasoline/ethanol blending

º Efficient lighting systems

º Use of solar geysers

º Improved wood stoves

º Switching from the use of wood and keroseneto LPG and electric stoves

In Forestry, the mitigation intervention couldinclude the following:

º Increasing area under forest cover and reducing degraded areas

º Establishment of additional woodlots

º Introducing agro-forestry activities

Policies and other measuresThe country has in the past spelled out its develop-ment objectives through various frameworks andset strategies to achieve these. As the significanceof environmental issues began to emerge, therehas been a move to model such policies and actionsto embrace this domain more comprehensively.Notably, the government's environment legislationhas been strengthened to require both the publicand private sectors to ensure that all their futurepolicies and strategies take environmental consid-erations into account. This is considered a strengthto supporting the requirements of the Conventionas inherent climate change considerations can becovered to some degree. Supporting policy interven-tions and strategies are either already in place or in theprocess of being promulgated in other areas includingEnergy, Forestry, Water resources, Transport,Agriculture and Land.

Financial and Technological needs and constraintsThrough undertaking the process of compiling theNational Communication, the country has identi-fied several areas with constraints that need to beattended to. Firstly institutional infrastructures forfacilitating a continuous process of undertakingsuch assessments and related activities was identi-fied as weak. There therefore is need for the struc-tures to be strengthened for more efficient coordi-nation and execution of processes and activities forpurposes of future National Communications.

There also is the element of inadequate local techno-logical capacity to expedite in an effective manner thetasks of undertaking the assessments. Capacity build-ing is therefore required in the human resourcedomain to ensure availability of a pool of experts thatthe process can draw from. Similarly technology trans-fer is increasingly more desirable if more efficient andenvironmentally friendly systems and technologies areto be introduced. Together with these, is the lack ofcomprehensive local data and country-specific infor-mation to support the studies. The physical record-ing network requires strengthening to ensure sys-tematic observations, as do the related informationcollection and management systems.

As a developing country with many priority issues toconsider, Swaziland’s financial resources are not ade-quate for use in making a meaningful intervention inthe Convention’s implementation. The many goodmeasures identified in this study are not possible toundertake without some form of financial support.The country can certainly join the international effortto protect the global climate system with the supportand assistance from other partners.

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2.1 GEOGRAPHY

The Kingdom of Swaziland, is situated in South EasternAfrica between the 25th and 28th parallels and longi-tudes 31° and 32° East. It lies some 48 to 225 kilometresinland of the Indian Ocean littoral and hence physicallylandlocked, meaning all traffic in and out of the countryhas to be routed via one of its neighbours, South Africaor Mozambique.The country has a total surface area of17,360 km2 and as such, the smallest country in thesouthern hemisphere.

It is bounded by the Republic of South Africa in thenorth, west and south, and by Mozambique on theeast (Figure 2.1). Although small in size, Swazilandis characterized by a great variation in landscape,geology and climate. It also lies within theMaputoland Centre, an area reported to have thegreatest biodiversity in Southern Africa.

There are four distinct physiographic regions with-in the country (highveld, middleveld, lowveld andlubombo) which are clearly distinguished by eleva-tion and relief (Murdoch, 1970).

Major landforms featuring mountains, hills andplains characterize the east to west cross-section ofthe country, giving rise to valleys, plateaux andbasins.

Although the country has historically been dividedinto the four physiographic zones, it has now beenmore appropriately reclassified into six , taking intoaccount climate, elevation, landforms, geology,soils and vegetation. Characteristics of these phys-iographic zones including landforms and altitudes(representing the common ranges, not extremes),are given in Table 2.1.

The Highveld (33%) of the country’s total land area,is the upper part of an overall escarpment. It con-sists of a complex of steep slopes between low andhigh levels, dissected plateaux, plateau remnantsand associated hills, valleys and basins.

The Upper Middleveld (14%) consists of stronglyeroded plateau remnants and hills at an intermedi-ate level of overall escarpment. It also containsstructurally defined basins in relatively protectedpositions, which are only weakly eroded.

The Lower Middleveld (14%) is basically the pied-mont zone of the escarpment, characterized bygenerally strongly eroded foot slopes. The overallslopes are predominantly moderate and the zoneclassifies at the first level as a plain.

The Lowveld plain consists of sedimentary and vol-canic Karro beds versus the igneous and metamor-phic rocks of the Highveld and Middleveld.

The Lowveld is subdivided into the higher WesternLowveld (20%) on sandstone or clay stone, and thelower Eastern Lowveld (11%) on basalt.

The sixth zone is the Lubombo Range (8%), a cues-ta with a steep escarpment bordering the EasternLowveld and a gradual dip slope of about 1:20descending east. As a major landform the Lebomboqualifies as a plateau.

National Circumstances

Chapter

2

Figure 2.1 Swaziland

Source: National Meteorological Service

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The Lowveld plain consists of sedimentary and vol-canic Karro beds versus the igneous and metaphor-phic rocks of the Highveld and Middleveld.

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Source: Remmenzwaal (1993)

Fog capped interlocking hills of the highveld with Ngwenya mountains behind

Table 2.1 Physiographic regions of Swaziland

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2.2 CLIMATE

Swaziland enjoys a climate which is generally sub-tropical, with hot and wet summers and cold anddry winters. Further variations in climatic conditionsoccur within the different physiographic regionsgiving rise to three clearly distinguishable climatetypes.

The highveld and upper middleveld are charac-terised by a Cwb climate. The lower middleveld andlubombo range have a Cwa climate whilst thewestern and eastern lowveld have a Bsh climate(Murdoch, 1970).

Mean annual rainfall ranges from about 1500 mil-limetres in the highveld to a little less than 500 mil-limetres in the southern lowveld. Figure 2.2 givesthe distribution of mean annual rainfall within thecountry.

The Highveld’s temperate climate is characterised bywet summers and dry winters, and annual rainfallaveraging 1500 millimetres. Temperatures varybetween a maximum of about 33 ˚C in mid-summerand 0 ̊ C at night in mid-winter. On the other extremeend is the Lowveld which experiences a sub-tropicalclimate. This region receives the lowest annual rainfallof about 450 mm. There is also a large diurnal tem-

perature range experienced here with maximum tem-peratures reaching the upper 30’s not uncommon.Semi-arid pockets of areas are found in this region,which is also liable to desertification. The frequencyof heavy downpours is more uniform acrossSwaziland than is total rainfall. Between 75% and83% of precipitation (summed mean monthlyamounts) comes in summer (October - March).

The country is prone to occurencies of natural dis-asters, such as tropical cyclones on one end anddrought on the other. The latest and longestdrought experienced occurred during the period of1989 -1994. Climate change is therefore likely tohave a bearing on the frequency and magnitude ofthese events and their associated impacts.

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Little Usutu river waterfall at Mantenga

Table 2.2 Average annual temperature and rainfall by physiographic region

1400 1200 1000 800 700 600 500

Figure 2.2 Mean annual rainfall distribution

Source: National Meteorological Service

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2.3 Population

Swaziland’s population in 1994 was estimated at870 000 with an annual growth rate of 3.2%. Highrates of fertility (5.6 lifetime births per woman) alsoprevail accompanied by high, albeit deceleratingmortality rates (compared to other countries withsimilar per capita GDP).

The population is fairly evenly distributed acrossthe four administrative regions, reflecting the factthat the country is devoid of natural barriersinhibiting human settlements.

The country’s population, which may be dividedinto 76% rural and 25% urban is a young one. Thecountry’s age-sex pyramid is broad-based with a60% of the population under the age of 21 years.

The de-facto population for the period 1976-1995is presented in Figure 2.3 and the projections ofpopulation growth rates are given in Table 2.6.

The high incidence of HIV/AIDS could have animpact on future population projections and relat-ed socio-economic performances. Life expectancyis currently estimated at 52,8 years for men and59,8 years for women.

Swaziland people at a national ceremony

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Figure 2.3 Swaziland’s de facto Population (1976-1995)

Source: Central Statistics Office

Population (‘000)


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2.4 THE ECONOMY

Swaziland has a small, but strongly export-orientedeconomy. In the 1993/94 fiscal period, the countryrealized exports that were 70% of the grossdomestic product and imports of 80%. Economicactivity, which is vibrant in the country, is an impor-tant source of Green house gas (GHG) emissions.

The main economic sectors in Swaziland includeagriculture, forestry, mining, manufacturing, con-struction, electricity and water, transport and com-munications, and government services.

Emissions of GHG stem from a variety of humanactivities. The agriculture and forestry sectors areamong the most active active in the Swazilandeconomy and are responsible for large amounts ofGHG emissions as levels of consumer demandincrease.

Similarly, the nature of the economy, as well as thephysical circumstances display the country’s partic-ular vulnerability to climate change and its relatedadverse effects.

In considering economic activity and its contribu-tion to climate change, several macroeconomicvariables have been examined. These include,amongst others, growth trends of Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) and demographic information.

2.4.1Economic Performance

Over the years since 1968 when Swazilandobtained her independence, the country’s economyhas experienced remarkable economic growth,social progress, political stability and human devel-opment. The historical economic environment ofthe country up to the 1980s was hence character-ized by positive growth and a notable surplus posi-tion.

The upward trend however slowed down around the1980s impacting on several important features of thenation’s development, including the per capitaincome growth. The major causes of the decliningtrend were the decline in foreign investment inflows(particularly since the 1990s), recurring drought con-ditions (spanning the period 1989-1994), high popu-lation growth rates and other contributing factorsincluding the poor overall performance of economiesof the subregion. The recent decline in economicgrowth saw a low of -0.1% in 1991/92 and a slightrecovery thereafter reaching about 3% in 1994.

Official statistics indicate that real gross domesticproduct at factor cost grew at an average 2.8% perannum during the period 1989/90-1993/94. Table2.3 presents the important indicators of the coun-try’s national situation for the base year 1994. Thetotal GDP at factor cost and at current prices forthat year stood at 3 047 million Emalangeni (US$878 million). The corresponding GDP per capitawas E 4 308 (US$1 240).

Table 2.3 Swaziland’s National Circumstances

Source: Central Statistics

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2.4.2Sectors of the Economy

An analysis of the share of each sector on the over-all country’s GDP shows the category of servicesassuming the lion’s share at about 35.5% in 1994.This includes, in descending order, governmentservices, wholesale and retail, transport, banking,financial and other related services.

A summary of the country’s GDP by sector of origin andtheir relative share is presented on table 2.4. Secondaryproduction is the second largest category making upthe GDP with a total contribution of 32.7%.

The activities under this category are manufac-turing, electricity and water and construc-tion.Manufacturing growth is largely attrib-uted to the increase in production of drink pro-cessing and sugar based production activities.

The share of manufacturing alone is 27.5%.The rest of the other sectors, namely agriculture,mining and forestry account for 10.2%, 1.4% and0.7% of GDP respectively. This shows a level ofdiversification of the country’s economy from heavyreliance on any one particular sector.

Within the agricultural and forest sectors, sugarand wood pulp have been the main contributors tothe Swaziland economy. Production of sugar andwood pulp is directly derived from the agriculturaland forestry sectors respectively.

Processing of raw materials in the productionof these two involve complex industrialprocesses, which add to the emissions ofGHG.These processes therefore need to beconsidered when determining adaptation andmitigation strategies for the country.

Table 2.4 Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin at Current Prices

Source: Central Statistics Office

Mbabane, capital of Swaziland

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Swaziland is one of the leading producers of softdrink concentrate and a supplier of the majority ofAfrican countries and beyond.This has lead to anincrease in the production of miscellaneous edi-bles.The type of energy used is worth investigationfor their contribution to GHG levels.

With regard to exchange rates, the Lilangeni isrecorded to have been steady at 2:1 US$ in the mid1980s and a relatively small drop to an average ofabout 3.4:1 US$ in 1994. The Lilangeni is peggedto the South African Rand at par.

Swaziland also belongs together with South Africa,to a common monetary area agreement. It is also amember of the Southern African Customs Union(SACU) of which South Africa is a dominant partner.

2.4.3 Country Developmental Strategies

The country’s development objectives outliningnational priority issues have been central in struc-turing Swaziland’s anticipated intervention in com-mitments of the Climate Convention and others. Toattempt an initial assessment of climate changeimpacts and identification of mitigation options,baseline projections have been developed usingsets of assumptions depicting the expected patternof economic development. In particular, countryobjectives as presented in the NationalDevelopment Strategy (NDS), were consideredwhen making sector projections and overall coun-try projections.

It is important to note that the country continues touse the three-year rolling National DevelopmentPlans (NDPs). These are now designed in the con-text of the long term plan NDS (twenty five year).The NDS, NDPs and annual budgets jointly, aredesigned to ensure that aspirations of theGovernment of Swaziland for the welfare of itspeople are translated into actionable policies andprogrammes to ensure optimization of resourceallocation.

Before making the baseline projections, it is impor-tant to provide a summary of Government’s objec-tives regarding Swaziland’s development and thewelfare of its citizens. The Government ofSwaziland has as part of its main objective endeav-oured to address three main areas: good gover-nance, a vibrant economy, and human and socialdevelopment.

Good governance encompasses such issues as con-stitutionalism, the role of the State, and traditionand culture. One of the initiatives, which came up,as a direct consequence was the setting up of theConstitutional Review Commission (CRC), aimed atsoliciting views of the nation on areas that warrantinclusion into the country's constitution. Thisprocess, when completed, is expected to helpassess various elements of good governance, whichinclude, inter alia, legitimacy, accountability trans-parency and popular participation.

Strategies aimed at improving human and socialdevelopment include ensuring high levels of foodsecurity, provision of proper human settlementsand shelter, initiatives aimed at human resourcedevelopment and improvements in health ameni-ties. Provision of safe water and sanitation as wellas programmes aimed at containing the populationgrowth rate are paramount for improvement of thenation’s standards of living.

Before we turn to our model for the developmentof the baseline scenario it is important to state thecountry’s vision encapsulated in the NDS docu-ment, which reads as follows:

"By the year 2022, the Kingdom of Swaziland willbe in the top 10% of the medium human develop-ment group of countries founded on sustainableeconomic development.”

In essence what the country determines is to speedup the pace at which it bids for enhancement ofhuman capabilities.

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2.4.4System of National Accounts:GDP Projections.

In developing the baseline for impact assessmentsand mitigation analysis a model referred to as theSimplified Macroeconomic Analysis of GHG(SMAG) has been used in the quantification ofchanges in the economic sectors deemed impor-tant in relation to GHG limitation.

This simplified assessment involves the use of exist-ing statistics in which all projections for GDP (Table

2.5) are based on national accounts data. Theseprojections were computed using simple movingaverages. Had there been an advanced method ofcompiling national statistics capable of providingdetailed multi sectoral information then it wouldhave been possible to engage Computable GeneralEquilibrium Models (CGE models) when analysingclimate change mitigation.

CGE models consist of a number of complex equa-tions, which places great demand on data and otherresources. Projections of population growth rates forthe period 1994-2030 were also computed for thisassessment (Table 2.6).

Since Swaziland has relatively good statistics and devel-opment plans it has been possible to carry out assess-ment such as the SMAG, which provides a deeper mit-igation analysis than a purely descriptive approach.The analysis contained in this report, therefore, offers asuperior decision framework for GHG limitation com-pared to a purely descriptive approach.

The background information provided on the variouseconomic sectors associated with GHG emissions andan in-depth look into the country’s developmentalobjectives provided a good base for application ofSMAG.

Table 2.6 Projections of Population Growth Rates (1994-2030)

Parliament buildings at Lobamba in the middleveld

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Table 2.5 Projection for average growth rates of the GDP by sector 1994-2030


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2.5 AGRICULTURE

Swaziland commands two agriculture productionsystems. One is on Swazi Nation Land (SNL) wherethere is communal ownership of land and the otheris on Individual Tenure Farms (ITFs) where there isprivate ownership of land. Production of crops andlivestock on SNL is mainly subsistence whilst pro-duction on ITFs is commercial and consist of hugefarms under irrigation. Agricultural production onSNL has remained low and technology used hasremained rudimentary.

Although Swaziland has succeeded in achievingself-sufficiency in agriculture, she has failed toachieve self-reliance and as such remains a netimporter of agricultural produce. In spite of thevarious agriculture promotion programmes thecountry has failed to exploit its comparative advan-tage in the production of several types of crops.

Attempts to encourage maize production have beenhampered by unfavourable soil and climate conditions.Even in those cases where agricultural productionresponded positively to initiatives by the public sector,cooperatives and NGOs, the lack of markets posed aserious obstacle to the advancement of the sector.

In spite of its poor performance, agricultureremains the mainstay of the Swaziland economy.Projections in Table 2.5 indicate that this sector ispossibly expected to continue to account for, atleast, 13% of GDP over the next 30 years. Shouldthe country succeed in its endeavour to developand promote agricultural technologies that are costeffective, acceptable to all stakeholders and envi-ronmentally friendly, the objective of self-relianceshall not always remain elusive.

Use of advanced technologies in the production ofhigh value crop such as sugar, citrus, cotton andtobacco can be expected to increase yield and com-mercial value and thus improve the status of theagricultural sector as a foreign exchange earner.

Climate change mitigation policies have the pri-mary responsibility of addressing themselves tochanges aimed at ensuring improved yields on bothSNL and ITF. Swaziland is capable of realizing bothits goals of self-sufficiency and self-reliance in agri-cultural production.

Sugar crop under irrigation at Simunye

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2.6 FORESTRY

Forestry is an important economic activity, on aver-age this sector accounts for 1.3% of the country’sGDP. As a foreign exchange earner wood pulp issecond only to sugar. Presently this sector accountsfor, approximately, 10% export value.

Despite the country’s small size, Swaziland has oneof the largest man-made forests in the world.These man made forests account for 6% of thetotal land mass. These vast plantations of pinetrees have been well managed and continue to bean important source of input for the pulp industry.Favourable climatic conditions and appropriate irri-gation practices give Swaziland a competitiveadvantage in this resource.

Indigenous woodlands and wattle plantationsaccount for 25% and 2% respectively, of the totalland mass. These two types of forests have notbeen well managed and have suffered from defor-estation as a result of the rapid increase in the

country’s population. Large amounts of forest areahave had to be cleared in order to put up buildingsboth for domestic and commercial use.

These forests also serve as the main sources ofwood fuel and raw material for wood products andhomestead construction. Deforestation has led toserious land degradation and loss of biodiversity.

This is a clear indication that Swaziland has a verybig challenge to ensure that afforestation cam-paigns are effective for the goal of sustainabledevelopment to be realized. Restoration of indige-nous forest shall definitely require sound ruraldevelopment programmes.

So far, Rural Development Area Programmes(RDAPs) have mainly addressed themselves to theimprovement of agricultural programmes to,almost, a total neglect of the forestry sector savefor a few tree planting campaigns undertaken in aselected number of areas in the country.

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Indigenous and exotic forests against the backdrop of the Bulembu mountains in Piggs peak


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2.7 INDUSTRY / MANUFACTURING

The manufacturing sector has always been thecountry’s main contributor to GDP. Projections forGDP over the 30-year period indicate that this sec-tor is likely to continue as the leading source ofnational income.

The impetus to growth in this sector is attributableto Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) attracted in thepast, mainly by a favourable industrial climate char-acterized by the abundance of trainable labour atcompetitive wages, a poorly unionised labourresource and a relatively stable political situation.

The manufacturing sector consists mainly of agro-based processing industries, which have survivedbecause of good soils and climatic conditions.Sustainability of these industries depends on,among other things, the extent to which climatechange mitigation policies are effectively imple-mented.

Reduction of GHG emissions is therefore key in thestrategies to sustain the agro-based industry.

Successful environmental degradation abatementactions also have a direct positive socio-economicimpact. As was alluded to earlier on, the privateformal sector is one of the main employers of thelabour force, maintaining high levels of productivi-ty in this sector guarantees employment of largesegments of the population, particularly, if produc-tion is kept relatively labour intensive.

It is important to note that the manufacturing sectorin Swaziland has recently been seriously challengedby changes taking place in neighbouring countries,particularly those of a political nature. The new dem-ocratic and thus favourable political climate in theRepublic of South Africa led to a relocation of largeamounts of foreign capital. Political and economicimprovements in the Republic of Mozambique arealso likely to display similar behaviour.

The challenge for Swaziland therefore is to find apossible and long lasting solution to foster sounddomestic macroeconomic development in the con-text of regional cooperation and maintenance ofhealthy competition with her neighbours.

Industries at Matsapa - the country’s main manufacturing site.


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2.8 MAJOR LAND USE ACTIVITIES

Grazing occupies about 63% of the country’s totalland area and most of the grazing is restricted tothe SNL. In 1989/90, natural veld comprised 95%of the land available for grazing (SwazilandGovernment 1994), with the remaining 5% beingimproved pasture used mainly for dairy production.However considerable portions of the grazing landexist in arable,grazing,settlement mosaics and havebeen dramatically modified by cultivation, heavygrazing, and human and livestock populationincreases over the past two to three decades suchthat they are no longer true rangelands supportingpredominantly natural vegetation.

This is attributed to the fact that cattle are inti-mately involved in Swazi custom and culture, andare regarded as a store of wealth. They are impor-tant as sources of meat, milk, manure, and draughtpower for ploughing and transport. About 65% ofrural homesteads keep cattle, which make a signif-icant contribution to income from farming activi-ties, perhaps between 30% and 50% of annualincome (Swaziland Government 1983).

There are no restrictions on the number of livestockthat an individual can own, and those without live-stock have a right to grazing for any they eventual-ly acquire. Cattle are put out to graze during the

day, and returned to the kraal at night, when calvesare separated from the cows, which are milked inthe morning.

The practice of fallowing in the croplands has beendecreasing due to the increase in population lead-ing to higher demands for cropped land. A largepart of the SNL is under maize production, which isthe staple food of Swaziland.

Sugarcane is the leading crop in TDL and it is themain source of foreign exchange for the country.The value of export of sugar was 25% of the totalnational export in 1992 (Swaziland Government1994b).

Commercial forest is the third most common landuse in Swaziland. This activity is predominantlybased on large plantations operated by the privatesector. (6%)

The remaining 20% of land in the country is eitherresidential, held in the form of natural reserves,water reservoirs and their catchments, or is used bya wide variety of land uses in small areas such asquarrying, orchards, market gardening, etc.

Various land use types at the Ezulwini valley

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2.9 TRANSPORT

The efficient functioning of the economy isdependent upon a good network of transport andcommunication infrastructure and the availability oftransport services. The Swaziland Government andits either wholly or partially owned parastatalorganisations have a direct role to play in the provi-sion and maintenance of an infrastructure networkwhich is adequate to satisfy all effective demand. Inaddition, government provides a number of trans-port services and is responsible for regulating serv-ices provided by private enterprises in order toensure fair competition and adherence to basicsafety standards.

Government strives to promote a balanced multimodal split which facilitates the development andgrowth of all transport modes, the enhancement oftelecommunications and to coordinate all activitieswithin the sector.

Swaziland’s transport services are well developedand cover the spectrum of requirements for themovement of goods and people. Several operationsspecialising in a diversity of services operate withinthe country and are professionally run to high stan-dards. However, public transport by bus is an area,which continues to need improvement.

Air links to regional and international destinations arefacilitated through commercial carriers, including thenational airline; (charter companies operate to com-plement these services.)

2.9.1Road Transport

The road network has subsequently undergoneexpensive upgrading and today ranks among thebest in the continent, while effective rail links alsoensure the prompt, efficient movement of importand export commodities.

New classification of roads adopted in 1970, hasaccounted for the decrease in length of main roads.

2.9.2Air Transport

There is only one airport in Swaziland, Manzini, sit-uated at Matsapa, 37 kilometres from Mbabane.Until 1971 no air transport statistics were avail-able, so the data were collected retrospectivelyfrom the files of the Ministry of Transport andCommunications together with those of theMatsapa Airport Authorities.

2.9.3Rail Transport

The Swaziland Railway is 220,4 kilometres insideSwaziland and continues a further 74,0 kilometresto connect with the port of Maputo. The line wasoriginally built for the transport of iron ore fromNgwenya to Maputo, but with the growth of theeconomy, other traffic, consisting mainly of sugar,pulp and citrus, is being supported.

Transnational autobahn linking the Mbabane and Manzini cities.

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3.1 INTRODUCTION

IN accordance with article 4.1 (a) of the UnitedNations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC), all parties to the Conventionare requested to update and report periodically ontheir national inventory of anthropogenic emissionsand removal of greenhouse gases (GHG). This sec-tion of the national communication of Swazilandgives an outline of anthropogenic greenhouse(GHG) emissions and removals for the year 1994.

The inventory focuses on direct GHG emissions;carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and NitrousOxide (N20). Other Non-CO2 emissions gases whichhave been considered and have an indirect effecton climate change through their influence on othergreenhouse gases, especially ozone are precursorse.g. oxides of Nitrogen (NOX), carbon monoxide(CO), and non methane volatile compounds(NMVOCs). In keeping with the IPCC guidelines,emissions from international bunkers are treatedseparately. Information is also available for emis-sions of perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocar-bons (HFCs) and sulphurhexafluoride (SF6).

3.2 METHODOLOGY

The calculated emissions and removals of green-house gases for 1994 were based on the Revised1996 IPCC Inventory Guidelines for NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventories. The source categories;energy (fuel combustion and fugitive emissions);industrial processes; agriculture; land-use changeand forestry, and waste. were adopted with IPCCdefault emissions factors used and with the excep-tion of waste, where the regional default factors forTanzania were used. The methodology used for CO2and non-CO2 emissions in the energy category wasIPCC bottom -up sectoral approach. Energy activitydata (total quantities of solid and liquid fossil fuelsproduced, imported, exported and consumed) wasobtained from the Energy Section of the Ministry ofNatural Resources and Energy. Conversion factorsfor various fuels used were IPCC default.

CO2 and non-CO2 emissions from industrial activi-ties were determined from various activities andincluded are road paving, food and drink and chem-ical products use. The general methodology usedinvolves knowledge of the product of activity levele.g. amount of material produced or consumed,and an associated emission factor per unit con-sumption/production. Activity data on quantitiesconsumed/produced was obtained from variousindustries.

Also provided is data on consumption of HFCs, PFCsand SF6 associated with application of refrigerationand air conditioning, fire suppression and, gas insulat-ed switch gear and circuit breakers.

Emissions from agriculture namely CH4, N20, CO andNOX were determined from five sources: domesticlivestock (enteric fermentation and manure manage-ment), rice cultivation, prescribed burning of savan-nas, field burning of agricultural residuals and agricul-tural soils. Activity data, on number and type of ani-mals, annual harvested area cultivated under continu-ously flooded conditions, area of savanna and grass-land burnt annually, and fraction of agricultural resid-uals that are annually burnt, was obtained from gen-eral statistics of the Government of Swaziland.

The methodology for determining CO2 and non-CO2emissions from land-use change and forestry andremovals was in accordance with 1996 IPCC method-ology modified to include sources of emissions andremoval which covered agriculture, firewood, timber,settlements and plantations. Activity data such asabandoned area during and over 20-year periods wasobtained from central statistics office.

CH4 is the predominant greenhouse gas from waste.Using IPCC methodology, CH4 was determined fromsolid waste disposal sites, domestic/commercialwastewater and sludge, and industrial waste andsludge. Activity data was obtained from the follow-ing industries: Non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages,meet and poultry, dairy products, sugar, and pulp andpaper.

Greenhouse Gas Inventories

Chapter

3


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Table 3.1 Swaziland’s greenhouse gas inventories overview in kilotonnes (Gigagramms per year) 1994


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3.3 NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMIS-SIONS OVERVIEW

The national inventory has been organised intofive parts corresponding to five of the six majorsource activities described in the 1996 IPCCGuidelines as follows:

(i) Energy(Fuel Combustion Activities)

a) Householdb) Agriculturec) Manufacturingd) Commerciale) Transport

(Fugitive Emissions)a) Coal mining

(ii) Industrial Processesa) Pulp and paperb) Food and drinkc) Air conditioning and refrigerationd) Fire extinguishers- solvents and aerosolse) Road paving

(iii) Agriculturea) Domestic livestockb) Animal wastec) Rice cultivationd) Savannah burninge) Agricultural waste burningf) Agricultural soils

(iv) Land Use and Forestry(Emissions)

a) On-site burningb) On-site decayc) Off-site burningd) Commercial harveste) Liming of soils

(Sinks)a) Carbon uptake by tressb) Carbon uptake in abandoned areas

(v) Wastea) Solid waste disposal sitesb) Domestic/Commercial waste water and

sludgec) Industrial waste water and sludge

Table 3.1 gives an overview of greenhouse gasemissions and removals in Swaziland for the year1994.

3.4 GWP EFFECTS ON TOTAL EMISSIONS

An overall picture of Swaziland's contribution toradioactive forcing from greenhouse gas emissionsis given using Global Warming Potentials (GWPs)from Table 3.2. The GWPs are calculated for a timehorizon of 100 years are direct and indirect forgases and for methane respectively.

3.5 Emissions of CO2 CH4 and N2O

3.5.1 Emissions of CO2

Swaziland's contribution of CO2 amounted to 873870 tonnes in the year 1994, (representing 0.873tonnes CO2 per capita).Virtually all CO2 emissionsemanated from fuel combustion (energy) charac-terised by household, manufacturing, commercialand transport sectors.

There were no CO2 emissions from industrial process-es. The largest single source of CO2 in Swaziland isthe transport sector, which accounted for 50% ofenergy CO2 emissions in 1994. The manufacturing,household and commercial sectors accounted for32.0%, 15.0% and 3.0% respectively.

The relatively high contribution of CO2 from theresidential sector is due to use of coal, liquefiedpetroleum gas (LPG) and to some extent kerosenefor heating purposes in households. The largestcontribution of CO2 from the manufacturing sec-tor comes from the use of coal for steam genera-tion in the pulp and paper, and food processingand beverages industries. Given on Figure 3.1 is theratio of CO2 emission per sector.

Table 3.2: Global warming potentials (GWPs)

Figure 3.1 Ratio of CO2 emissions per category

50%

3%32%

15%


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3.5.2Emissions of CH4

Total methane emissions in Swaziland for 1994amounted to 64 370 tonnes. The dominantsources of CH4 emissions are agriculture (66.9%)and waste (27.3%). Fuel combustion and coalmining contribute 5.5% of total CH4 emissions(Figure 3.2).

Within the agriculture sector, the largest contribu-tion (60%) comes from domestic livestock influ-enced by enteric fermentation.

In 1994, there were 642,000 and 435,000 of non-dairy cattle and goats; respectively which both con-tributed 97.0% of total CH4 emissions from thedomestic livestock.

Under fuel combustion, the largest contribution(85.0%) derives from the residential sector involv-ing combustion of firewood for cooking and heat-ing purposes.

In waste, the largest contribution (93.0%) comesfrom industrial waste dominated by the beer andpulp and paper industries.

3.5.3Emissions of N2O

Swaziland's total anthropogenic emission of N2O in1994 is estimated at 1 337 tonnes. The major con-tributor was agriculture (93.0%) predominantlyfrom liming of agricultural soils followed by fuelcombustion (7.4%). Within the fuel combustioncategory, 35% of the N2O emissions were attrib-uted to the residential sector, mainly from combus-tion of firewood for cooking and heating purposes.Given on Figure 3.3 is the ratio of N2O emissionsper category in 1994.

3.6 EMISSIONS OF OTHER GHGs (PCFs,SF6 AND HFCs)

In view of the nature of Swaziland's manufacturingindustries notably the assembling of air condition-ing and refrigeration systems, direct data was col-lected on consumptions of HFCs.

For the year 1994, 153.3 tonnes of HFCs were esti-mated to have been discharged into the atmos-phere. In addition, 3 361 tonnes of HFCs were esti-mated to have been discharged from fire extin-guishers, solvent and aerosols, making a total of3 771 tonnes from the two sources.

3.7 EMISSIONS OF PRECURSORS (CO,NOX AND NMVOCs)

Precursors are gases such as NOX, CO andNMVOCs, which have an indirect effect on the cli-mate through their influence on other GHGs, espe-cially ozone. Emissions for NOX, CO and NMVOCsfor the year 1994 were estimated at 19 930, 523048, and 80 011 tonnes respectively. The largestcontribution of NOX comes from agriculture (60%)and fuel combustion (38.0%), again mainly fromcombustion of firewood under the residential sec-tor. The same trends was noted for CO, whilstNMVOC emissions' largest contributions emanatedfrom industrial processes (86.0%).

3.8 EMISSIONS OF CO2 EQUIVALENTS

Total emissions of GHGs given as CO2 equivalentsfor the year 1994 using the GWP values quoted inTables 3.2 are given in Table 3.3.

Figure 3.2 Ratio of CH4 emissions per category

Figure 3.3: Ratio of N2O emissions per category

Table 3.3 Total Emissions of Greenhouse Gases for the year 1994

0%

27%

6%

67%

7%

93%


29

GWP taken account of, altogether 6.33 milliontonnes of CO2 equivalent is estimated. The largestcontribution (77.5%) emanates from consumptionof HFC's in air conditioning and refrigeration sys-tems, and fire extinguishers on one hand, and theuse of solvents and aerosols on the other.

The second largest source of CO2 equivalents isCO2 (13.8%). The Contribution of N2O and CH4emissions to CO2 equivalents were estimated at6.6% and 2.1%, respectively.

3.9 CO2 REMOVALS

The main sources of CO2 emissions in Swazilandunder land-use change and forestry are commercialharvests (60.0%), and offsite burning through fire-wood combustion (25.0%).

Liming of agricultural soils, on-site burning and on-site decay contributions were estimated at 8.5%,3.4% and 3.1% respectively. Given on Table 3.4are CO2 emissions from identified sources above.

Swaziland possesses a comparetively large GHGsink capacity, owing to the very large man madeand indigenous forest cover in the country, the for-mer ranking amongst the largest such in the world.The major sinks therefore are carbon up-take bytrees predominantly from commercial plantationsincluding non-forest trees planted in major cities.These all together account for 99.5% of the coun-try’s overall uptake. A small fraction is carbon up-take in abandoned areas (0.5%).

Table 3.5 shows the final GHG budget forSwaziland for the year 1994. Results from thistable indicate that the balance which takesaccount of emissions and sinks is a net sink for theyear 1994 by 2.383 million tonnes carbon dioxideup-take.

3.10 INTERNATIONAL BUNKERS

As in accordance with IPCC guidelines emissionsfrom international bunkers were reported separate-ly. In the year 1994, 3,640 tonnes of carbon diox-ide were emitted into the atmosphere under inter-national bunkers. The fuels used in internationaltransport is jet kerosene.

3.11 UNCERTAINTIES AND FURTHERWORK

In undertaking this study, in all respects, defaultemission factors were used as a result of absence ofcountry-specific emissions factors and ratios partic-ularly in firewood combustion, agriculture, land-usechange and forestry, and waste. There is need tohave further work to develop local specific emis-sion factors and ratios.

Another area of concern is the source and avail-ability of activity data in energy particularly biomassand in the other sectors; agriculture, land-usechange and waste. For example, activity data avail-ability, variability and reliability under land-usechange (in particular, area converted annually, areaconverted under different periods of time, area ofabandoned land, net change in biomass density,fraction of biomass burned on site etc), causedimmense difficulties.

Furthermore, work under land-use change andforestry requires generation of activity data throughsocial and corresponding forest survey, forestinventories and studies and experimental relatedresearch to generate emission and conversion fac-tors. Accessibility, to satellite imagery and capacitybuilding in all these areas remains necessary tomove the work forward.

Table 3.4 Annual Balance in Carbon Dioxide in LandUse change and Forestry

Table 3.5 Swaziland’s 1994 final GHG budget (tonnes)


30

4.1 INTRODUCTION

The biosphere is characterised by a diversity ofecosystems, which have irregular and asymmetricdistribution patterns. Changes in climatic condi-tions and soil characteristics are responsible for theirregularity in the distribution patterns and floristiccomposition of ecosystems over time. There is aclose relationship between the distribution oforganisms, particularly plants and climatic condi-tions.

Climatic conditions generally vary with latitude andaltitude. Of particular importance are the spatialvariations in temperature conditions and quantity

of precipitation. Authors such as Woodward (1988)note that there is an abundance of evidence thatextremes in climate such as drought, low and hightemperatures and high winds have an influence onplant distribution. Such evidence is illustrated instudies of pollen records that suggest that the geo-graphical distribution and range of plants havebeen subject to change with changing climatic con-ditions over time.

4.2 FORESTRY

4.2.1Background

This study examines the extent to which managedforests and other ecosystems in Swaziland are vul-nerability to climate change and thereafter, feasibleadaptation options available to the country. Table4.1 presents a panaromic listing of possible impactsdue to climate change on forests.

Of particular concern are the variation in tempera-ture conditions and changes in the distribution andamount of rainfall. Other factors that are likely toinfluence the composition, structure and distribu-

tion of ecosystems include increasing carbon diox-ide levels, ultra-violet radiation, and outbreaks ofpests and diseases.

Apart from the climatic processes occurring withinthe natural environment, human activities also havean influence on the spatial distribution of patternsof ecosystems. Man's cultural practices such asdeforestation, grazing and fire serve as short-termeffects on the distribution and composition ofecosystems.

Vulnerability and Adaptation

Chapter

4

Table 4.1: Some possible climate change impacts on forests and other ecosystems

Source: Freenstra et al (1998)


31

Managed forests and woodlands are the mainsources of timber for construction, energy and pulphence contribute to the economy of many coun-tries in the world (Feenstra et al., 1998). Changesin the composition, structure and productivity ofecosystems will not only affect the sustainability oforganisms that are associated with the ecosystemsbut may also lead to effects on the national econo-my which they support. This is particularly true inthe case of managed forests.

Medicinal plants also occur within natural ecosys-tems. Therefore the impacts of climate change onecosystems will not only affect the socio-economicstatus of the nation but it will also have seriouseffects on health. Swaziland is highly diversified interms of relief, climate, land-use systems and asso-ciated ecosystems.

4.2.2 Land Tenure and Land-use

Swaziland has a dual system of land tenure insti-tuted when the country was still under Britishprotection. The system comprises of Swazi NationLand (SNL) and Title Deed Land (TDL). Overall,

SNL covers 74.2% (1 287 300ha), while the TDLmakes up 25.6% (444 100 ha) of the total area(Remmelzwaal and Vilakati, 1994).

Swazi Nation Land comprises of communal (948000ha) or non-communal (14 200ha) land underthe control of chiefs. Part of the land under SNL iscontrolled by Tibiyo (49 500ha), the Ministry ofAgriculture and Co-operatives (117 300ha), theSwaziland National Trust Commission (46 000ha)or leased (112 300ha).

TDL constitutes land owned by companies (estatesand commercial forests) and individuals in ruralareas (43 1600ha). Urban areas make up a smallportion (125 00ha) of TDL.

Generally, access to land is limited on SNL com-pared to TDL. Most settlements on SNL are lessthan 2 hectares in size, and only 2% of the total

holdings (63 583) are larger than 5 hectares(Central Statistical Office report, 1993).

Land-use practices and the exploitation of naturalresources in the country vary according to the landtenure system in each area. According to

Pine forest plantations of the pulp company at Bhunya in the highveld.


32

Remmelzwaal and Dlamini (1994), the main land usesin the country are small-scale subsistence crop agricul-ture, large-scale crop agriculture, extensive communalgrazing, ranching, plantation forestry and others.

The other land uses include hunting, parks andreserves, water reservoirs and areas that are usedfor settlements, industry and recreation. Table 4.2shows the areal coverage of the main land uses inthe country per physiographic region. Small-scalecrop agriculture (SA), extensive communal grazing(CH) and some extraction and collection (E) occuron SNL.

Land-uses that are associated with TDL includelarge-scale crop agriculture (LA), ranching (RH),

plantation forestry (F). Parks and reserves (P) areeither under SNTC or TDL. Although water reser-voirs (W) mostly serve TDL, they are found on SNL.

4.2.3Ecosystems

Swaziland has quite a high diversity of ecosystemsfor a small country. Generally, each physiographicregion is associated with specific ecosystems (veldtypes) with a number of units. I'ons and Kidner(1967) subdivided the veld types of Swaziland intoeleven (11) units on the basis of climate and com-position of the communities.

Table 4.2 Coverage of the main land uses in each physiograph-

ic region of Swaziland

Pulp mill at Bhunya with wood chip stockpile


33

or broadleaf savanna and has three vegetationunits.

Each of the six physiographic regions of the coun-try is associated with at least one ecological zone.These zones and the associated physiographicregions are shown on Table 4.3. Table 4.4 gives theareal extent of indigenous forests.

4.2.4 Climatic requirements for forests

The mountain sourveld is located within an area ofrainfall exceeding 1 250 mm a year. This zone isassociated with fairly light or severe (especially inthe valleys) winter frost. The highland sourveldoccurs in a slightly drier zone where the annualrainfall does not exceed 1 000 mm.

Within the moist tall grassveld rainfall is about 1000 mm a year or more. Winters in this zone areusually frost-free. The tall grassveld receives anannual average of about 900 mm. The dry tallgrassveld on the other hand receives about 750mm of rainfall a year. It is also characterised byslightly higher temperatures than the tall grassveld.The upper broad-leaved tree savanna is charac-terised by hot summer temperatures. The amountof rainfall in this zone is about 1 000 mm a year.Though cooler than the rest of the middleveld, theupland tall grassveld receives between 800 and900 mm of rainfall per year.

Associated with the lowveld regions are the lowerbroad-leaved tree savanna, the acacia savanna andthe dry acacia savanna. The occurrence of theseecological zones is partly influenced by climaticconditions and soil types.

The broad-leaved tree savanna found in the west-ern lowveld, occurs on granites soils. In the easternlowveld is the acacia savanna, which is associatedwith fertile soils derived from basalt. The dry acaciasavanna occurs along the southern Lubombofoothills where that annual rainfall varies between500 and 625 mm per year. On the Lebombo moun-tain is the mixed bush and savanna.

Managed (plantation) forests in Swaziland consistof soft and hardwoods such as pine, eucalyptusand wattle. Table 4.5 shows the area of land undermanaged and natural forests in some of the com-panies in Swaziland. Each of the species foundwithin plantation forests strives within specific tol-erance ranges in terms of climatic conditions.

Sweet and Khumalo (1994) recognise five vegeta-tion units in the highveld, which are associatedwith short sour grassland. Patches of montane andriparian forests occur along river valleys and inter-fluves in the highveld. The middleveld is charac-terised by tall grasses, hillside bush and broadleafsavanna. Five vegetation units are recognised in thelowveld consisting of broadleaf, microphyllous oracacia savanna. Lubombo is characterised by bush

Table 4.3: Physiographic regions and Ecological Zones of Swaziland.

Table 4.4: Areal extent of forests in Swazland

Source: Hesse et al. (1997)


34

Most plantations are found in the highveld regionof Swaziland with a few wattle forests found in theupper middleveld.

Managed forests in the country consist of eucalyp-tus trees (Eucalyptus saligna and E. grandis), Pinetrees (Pinus elliottii,, P. patula and P. sylvestris) andwattle (Acacia mernsii).

Each of the species has a specific tolerance to cli-matic conditions. The mean annual temperatureand rainfall requirements for some of the speciesare shown on Table 4.6.

Changes in these climatic conditions may alsocause an increase in the susceptibility of thesespecies to pests and disease outbreaks.

Acacia mernsii, for example, is susceptible to bagworm and mirid attacks whose incidences increasewhen the mean annual temperature is above 1200mm.

4.2.5Methodology

Assessment of the vulnerability of the country’sforests and ecosystems was conducted on the basisof three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) recom-mended for the country; GFDL, CCCEQ and UKTR.Results presented in this report are based on these

models and on the country’s observed climatologi-cal data supplied by the meteorological service, andserving as inputs to the GCMs.

4.2.5.1 Types of Ecosystems

The current and projected ecosystem types inSwaziland were assessed using the Holdridge LifeZone Classification Model. Using data on annualbiotemperature and precipitation to classify ecosys-tems, the model gives the potential land cover foreach study site (Hartshort, 1992).

The potential land cover is assessed on the basis ofthe various life zones shown on the life zone chartand on the basis of both latitudinal and altitudinaldifferences. The

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