SWAZILAND S report.pdfPage Project team 4 List of abbreviations 5 1.0 THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 1.1...

First National Communication First National Communication to the to the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

SSWWAAZZIILLAANNDD’’SS

National Report on Climate ChangeNational Report on Climate Change

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Swaziland’s First National Communication to the UNFCCC

The Kingdom of Swaziland has accepted themounting scientific evidence that human activi-ties are interfering with natural systems, particu-

larly global climate change. The country has joinedother nations of the world in the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC’s) coordinated effortto better understand, not only aspects related to caus-es of this change, but also the likely extent of itsimpacts on various aspects of our livelihood, how wemay contend with it and how we can help curb itsexacerbation by limiting the emissions from thesources of these gases.

It is well understood that the climate system is vastand that human interactions with it present com-plexities that are not yet fully understandable.These uncertainties notwithstanding, no countrycan justify reason for inactivity especially in the lightof the high stakes involved and the reality thatdamage caused today may turn out to be irre-versible should the assumptions hold. Policymakersin Swaziland are keen to accept expert advicebased on objective scientific, technical and socio-economic information available on climate changein general and how Swaziland will fair in it, partic-ularly in future years.

The study presented in this report attempts toquantitatively expound on the country’s current aswell as future position as pertains to issues andeffects of global warming and climate change. Thishas been done in the context of several ofSwaziland’s unique national circumstances andcapabilities in playing an effective role in interna-

tional cooperation towards the fulfilment of com-mitments outlined in articles of the Convention onClimate Change of which we are Party.

The highlights of this study show that whilstSwaziland’s emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)in per-capita Carbon Dioxide (CO2) equivalents ismodest, the country also commands a rather largeCO2 sink owing to its man-made forests which are

amongst the largest in the world. We can proudlydeclare that this huge sink capacity we have,already by far outweighs our gross annual emissionof CO2 as revealed in results of the inventoriesundertaken in this study.

The country has not stopped at this positive devel-opment alone. In its pursuit to thrive as an environ-mentally conscious nation, the country has over thepast few years developed and enacted several poli-cies aimed at ensuring that environmental issues ingeneral and climate in particular are taken into con-sideration in all planning and developmentalefforts. This we do with a commitment to finding“win-win” solutions that address not only the con-cerns of global climate change and its impacts, butalso the country’s requirement for development inall sectors of its economy so as to lift the standardof life of the populace. The nation’s customs anddevelopmental priorities are thus enshrined inpeaceful co-existence with our environment andachieving for the country an acceptable level ofsustainable development for all in this the TwentyFirst Century and beyond.

The Hon. T.M. MlangeniMinister for Public Works and Transport

FOREWORD

PageProject team 4List of abbreviations 5

1.0 THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 61.1 BACKGROUND 61.2 SWAZILAND IN CONTEXT 61.3 SWAZILAND’S GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 81.4 IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION 91.5 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF STEPS 11

2.0 NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 122.1 GEOGRAPHY 122.2 CLIMATE 142.3 POPULATION 152.4 THE ECONOMY 16

2.4.1 Economic performance 162.4.2 Sectors of the economy 172.4.3 Country developmental strategies 182.4.4 System of national accounts: GDP projections 19

2.5 AGRICULTURE 202.6 FORESTRY 212.7 INDUSTRY & MANUFACTURING 222.8 MAJOR LAND-USE ACTIVITIES 232.9 TRANSPORT 24

3.0 GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES 253.1 INTRODUCTION 253.2 METHODOLOGY 253.3 NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS OVERVIEW 273.4 GWP EFFECTS ON TOTAL EMISSIONS 273.5 EMISSIONS OF CO2, CH4 AND N2O 273.6 EMISSIONS OF OTHER GHGS (PCFS, SF6 AND HFCS) 283.7 EMISSIONS OF PRECURSORS (CO, NOX AND NMVOCS) 283.8 EMISSIONS IN CO2 EQUIVALENTS 283.9 CO2 REMOVALS 293.10 INTERNATIONAL BUNKERS 293.11 UNCERTAINTIES AND FURTHER WORK 29

4.0 VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION 304.1 INTRODUCTION 304.2 FORESTRY 30

4.2.1 Background 304.2.2 Land tenure and land-use 314.2.3 Ecosystems 324.2.4 Climatic requirements for forests 334.2.5 Methodology 344.2.6 Results and outputs 364.2.7 Adaptation 39

4.3 HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES 404.3.1 Introduction 404.3.2 Baseline scenario 404.3.3 Water resources development 414.3.4 Current water demand 414.3.5 Irrigation water demand 424.3.6 Industrial and domestic water demand 43

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page4.3.7 Water quality 434.3.8 Usutu drainage basin 434.3.9 Methodology 444.3.10 Results of the effect of climate change on water resources 474.3.11 Interpretation of results 494.3.12 Adaptation options 504.3.13 Conclusions 52

4.4 AGRICULTURE 534.4.1 Introduction 534.4.2 Baseline information 534.4.3 Methods of estimating effects of climate change on crop yield 584.4.4 Results 594.4.5 Expected effect of enviromental change to on other crops 604.4.6 Adaptation 614.4.7 Conclusion 61

5.0 MITIGATION OPTIONS ANALYSIS 635.1 INTRODUCTION 63

5.1.1 Enabling activities for the preparation of the National Communication 63

5.2 ENERGY 645.2.1 Baseline development 645.2.2 Methodology and assumptions 645.2.3 Population and household sizes 645.2.4 Household energy mix and GDP 645.2.5 Energy intensity and demand projections 645.2.6 CO2 emissions projections 655.2.7 Mitigation in the energy sector 65

5.3 FORESTRY 665.3.1.Baseline and mitigation analysis 665.3.2 Methodology 665.3.3 Results 685.3.4 Forest Protection 71

6.0 POLICIES AND MEASURES 726.1 OBJECTIVE 726.2 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 726.3 THE ENVIRONMENT 726.4 ENERGY 72

6.1.1 Fuel and energy 726.1.2 Supply 736.1.3 Rural energy 73

6.5 TRANSPORT 746.5.1 Roads and road transport 74

6.6 FOREST RESOURCES 746.6.1 Forest under management 756.6.2 Afforestation and reforestation 75

6.7 AGRICULTURE 756.8 INTERNATIONAL LEVEL COMMITMENT 756.9 EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESS 76

REFERENCES 77

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Project CoordinatorShongwe Samuel S. (Mr.)

SupervisorDlamini Emmanuel D. (Mr.)

ResearchersDlamini Babazile H. (Ms.)Dlamini Mgidi D. (Prof.)Dlamini Ntfombiyenkhosi D. (Ms.)Fakundze Patience N. (Dr.)Khumalo Melusi (Dr.)Magagula-Gumbi Lungile (Ms.)Manyatsi Absalom M. (Dr.)Mathunjwa Mduduzi M. (Dr.)Matondo Jonathan I. (Prof.) Msibi Kenneth (Mr.)Shongwe M.M. (Dr.)Sukati Nonhlanhla A. (Dr.)Thwala Justice M. (Dr.)

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Project Team

PROJECT TEAM

AEEI Autonomous Energy Efficiency ImprovementsCCCM Canadian Climate Centre ModelCDM Clean Development MechanismCEST Condensing Extraction Steam TurbinesCFCs ChlorofluorocarbonsCGEs Computable General Equilibrium modelsCH4 MethaneCO Carbon MonoxideCO2 Carbon DioxideCOMAP Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis ProcessCRC Constitutional Review CommissionCSO Central Statistics OfficeDANCED Danish Cooperation for Environment and DevelopmentDSSAT Decision Support System for Agrotechnical TransferE EmalangeniESKOM South African Electricity CompanyEU European UnionFDI Foreign Direct InvestmentGCM Global Circulation ModelGDP Gross Domestic ProductGEF Global Environment FacilityGFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory modelGg GigagrammesGHG Greenhouse GasGNP Gross National ProductGWP Global Warming PotentialHa HectareHFCs HydrofluorocarbonsITF Individual Tenure FarmIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeKm2 Square kilometresKt KilotonneLEAP Long Range Energy Alternative Planning LPG Liquid Petroleum GasM3 Cubic MetresMAGICC Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate ChangeMCM Million Cubic MetresMOAC Ministry of Agriculture and CooperativesMT Metric TonneNDS National Development StrategyNDPs National Development PlansNGO Non-Governmental OrganizationsNMVOCs Non-Methane Volatile Organic CompoundsN2O Nitrous OxideNOX Oxides of NitrogenPCFs PerfluorocarbonsPET Potential EvapotranspirationRDAPs Rural Development Area ProgrammesSACU Southern African Customs UnionSADC Southern African Development CommunitySCENGEN Scenario GENeratorSEA Swaziland Environment AuthoritySEAP Swaziland Environment Action PlanSEI-B Stockholm Environmental Institute in BostonSNEP Swaziland National Energy PolicySNL Swazi Nation LandTDL Title Deed Land UKTR United Kingdom Meteorological Office Hardley Centre Transient modelUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUNEP United Nations Environment ProgrammeUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeWatBal Water Balance model

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List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

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1.1 BACKGROUND

Swaziland was amongst the 150 nations thatsigned the UN Framework Convention on ClimateChange during the convening of the UnitedNations Conference on Environment andDevelopment (Earth Summit) in Rio de Janeiro inJune 1992. The country subsequently ratified theConvention, becoming Party to it in 1996.

The Convention process was the culmination ofinternational concern on the global increase ofgreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly due tohuman activities since the industrial revolution. Thisincrease his been directly linked to the threat ofglobal climate change and its associated impacts ofincrease in temperatures, rise in sea levels, changesin precipitation, extreme weather events and otherweather-related effects. As an objective of theConvention therefore, a concerted global effort isamassed to achieve a stabilisation of GHG concen-trations in the atmosphere at a level that would pre-vent dangerous anthropogenic interference withthe climate system.

Swaziland, as are most developing countries, is aminor contributor of GHG emissions. The totalAfrican share of carbon emissions for exampleaccounted for only 3.2% of the world's total in1992. Inspite of this fact, according to theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)report, Africa has been described as the continentmost vulnerable to the likely impacts of climatechange. It is in the country’s interest therefore topursue all intervention options that can contributeto limiting effects of these impacts with similarresults of achieving more efficient use of resourcesand of the systems employed.

In compiling her National Communication,Swaziland seeks to comply with provisions ofArticles 4 and 12 of the Convention which enumer-ate commitments and implementation issues. In thecountry’s willingness to contribute to the protectionof the climate system it's intervention is to followafter the Convention's guiding principles, namelythe consideration of Swaziland as a developingcountry Party with special circumstances, the extentof its capabilities, regards for the common but dif-

ferentiated responsibilities, and equity.

The National Communication is therefore the coun-try’s preliminary attempt to present an overview,with respect of the base year 1994, of:• Its national social and economic context on the

basis of which it will address climate changeand its adverse effects and within which vari-ous interventions could be made;

• A national inventory of anthropogenic emis-sions by sources and removals by sinks ofgreenhouse gases using the IPCC 1996 RevisedGuidelines;

• An assessment of the country’s potential vul-nerability to climate change and approaches foradapting to such change; and

• A general description of steps taken or envis-aged by the country to implement theConvention.

1.2 SWAZILAND IN CONTEXT

Swaziland is a small country covering an area of 17360 in southeastern Africa. Within the limited areaof about 193 kilometres north to south, and 145kilometres east to west, every feature of Africa’s ter-rain, with the exception of the desert, is to befound. Great variation in landform characterises thecountry’s cross-section ranging from steep hills andan escarpment in the west to gentle undulatingplains and basins in the eastern interior.

The ClimateThe country enjoys a climate which is generally sub-tropical with summer rains (75 percent) falling in theperiod from October to March. Further variations inclimate occur along the cross section of the countryfollowing the topological features of the landform.Marked variations in the climate system do occurfrom year to year giving rise to extreme events thatsometimes impact negatively on the country’s natu-ral and socio-economic environments.

Events of prolonged drought spells in some yearsand of significant flooding by tropical storms inothers are features of the region’s climate that haveconstantly been witnessed. The types of human

The Executive Summary

Chapter

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The Excecutive Summary

activities have mainly been dictated by both theprevalent climate and the topology of each respec-tive area.

PopulationThe population of Swaziland was in 1994 standingat 870,000, with a corresponding annual growthrate of 3.2% which has since been on decline. Thedemographic distribution is such that 25% of thepopulation lives in urban areas and urban migrationoccurs at 3 to 5% per annum. Life expectancy is60 for men and 53 years for women.

It is expected that by the year 2030, approximately70% of the population will be living in urban orperi-urban areas. The population has a highdependency ratio owing to the fact that 60% iscomposed of people under the age of 21 years.These are some of the issues the country has tocontend with in mobilising support for its develop-ment priorities of accelerating economic growth,alleviating poverty, improving social services, andensuring sustainable use of scarce naturalresources.

The EconomyBeing the smallest country in the sub-region,Swaziland’s economy is closely tied to that of its larg-er neighbour, the Republic of South Africa. It isstrongly export-oriented with limited domestic mar-kets. Over the period 1968-96, the country’s econo-my saw growth averaging 6.5% annually. Total GDPat cost factor in 1994 was E 3047 million (about $900 million) and the corresponding per-capita GDPwas E 4308 ($ 1240 ). The impressive economicgrowth slowed down as from the 1980’s, a trendattributed to several factors amongst which aredeclining foreign direct investment inflows, uncer-tainty over the recent political developments in thesub-region, and most notably effects of the unusual-ly long drought conditions spanning the period1989-92.

Swaziland, together with South Africa, Botswana,Lesotho and Namibia belong to a regional agree-ment named the Southern African Customs Union(SACU). This pool has historically supplied forSwaziland, 50% of her public revenues hence thesingle most important source supporting GDP. Theagreement is currently under negotiation and it isyet unclear how its future management will affectshare proportions of member states.

Apart from the SACU, agriculture has traditionallybeen the cornerstone of country’s economy, anattribute that renders the latter particularly vulner-

able to impacts of climate change on this sector.The post-independence era has however seen ashift of the economy out of agriculture into indus-try and services with the associated increases inenergy demand and related resource inputs.

Nevertheless, to the extent that a large portion of themanufacturing sector is agro-based (mainly sugar,wood pulp and citrus canning), the base of the econ-omy is therefore still agricultural. A meaningful diver-sification of economic activity areas is necessarilydesirable if the country is to reduce its level of vulner-ability due to over reliance on climate-sensitive sec-tors.

The highly regulated sugar industry is one leadingexport earner for Swaziland. Three major estatesoperate mills with a combined output of over 450000 metric tonnes (MT) and bring in earnings ofover E 520 million ($150 million) (1994). Next arecitrus fruits whose production averages some 70000 MT mainly for export markets. In the forestsector, the country’s vast pine growing areas makeup one of the largest man-made forests in theworld and cover some 66 000 hectares (6% of thecountry’s total land area). The trees grown here aremainly used to produce unbleached kraft pulp forworld markets too. Other export commoditiesinclude beverages, coal, cotton, meat and timber.

The Convention provides for special considerationsto developing country Parties with specific needsand concerns arising from the adverse effects of cli-mate change and/or the implementation ofresponse measures where certain circumstancesapply. Some of these circumstances of concern thatapply in the context of Swaziland as listed in Article4.8 are the following five:• Countries with arid and semi arid areas,

forested areas and areas liable to forestdecay;

• Countries prone to natural disasters; • Countries with areas liable to drought

and desertification; • Countries whose economies are highly

dependent on income generated from theproduction, processing and export, and/oron consumption of fossil fuels and associ-ated energyintensive products; and

• Land-locked and transit countries.Swaziland’s small per-capita GHG emissions and it’sdisadvantaged position due to the precedingnational characteristics will be important factors toconsider in the formulation of strategies to fulfil thecountry’s developmental objectives while satisfyingthe Convention’s requirements.

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1.3 SWAZILAND’S GREENHOUSE GASINVENTORY

A national inventory of anthropogenic emissions bysources and removals by sinks of the main green-house gases was compiled for the country for thebase year 1994 in accordance with Article 4.1(a). TheRevised 1996 IPCC Guidelines were used for this task.

The major source categories considered as provided inthe guidelines are energy, industrial processes, agricul-ture, landuse and forestry, and waste. The inventoryresults reveal that the country’s total emission of car-bon dioxide (CO2) amounted to 874 kilotonnes (Kt).For the other two direct GHGs, methane (CH4) andnitrous oxide (N2O), the amounts were even lower at64 and 1 Kt respectively.

Information on emissions of precursors (gaseswhich have an indirect effect on climate) and someof the fully fluorinated compounds, was also quan-tified in the inventory.

Emissions of Carbon DioxideThe 874 Kt energy sector CO2 emission accounted tovirtually all the country's CO2 production. This repre-sents a comparatively small per-capita CO2 value of0.87 tonnes. This emission was predominatelyderived from fuel combustion from these sectors inthe following order: transport (50%), manufacturing(32%), household (15%) and commercial (3%).

Within energy, the transport sub-sector whichaccounts for half of all emissions is itself dominat-ed by fuel combustion by modes of road trans-portation. On households, the emissions emanatefrom the predominant use of coal liquefied petrole-um gas (LPG) and to some extent kerosene forheating and cooking especially in rural areas whereabout two thirds of the population reside.

In manufacturing, the emissions are mostly fromthe traditional reliance on coal for steam genera-tion especially in the sugar, pulp, food and bever-ages industries. When applying global warmingpotentials, the country's contribution in terms ofcarbon dioxide equivalents amounted to 6.33 mil-lion tonnes. The share of carbon dioxide is there-fore 13.8% of the total carbon dioxide equivalent.

Emissions of methaneOf the total 64.4 Kt methane (CH4) emissions fromsources in the country, the agriculture sector was thelargest contributor with 40.5 Kt (66.9%). Enteric fer-

mentation from domestic livestock (substantial herdsof cattle and goats) accounted for most of theseemissions. The waste sector followed with 16.5 Kt(27.3%), which came from industrial waste out ofthe production of beer, pulp and paper.

Emissions derived from the all energy sector were7.2 Kt (5.5%). This resulted from fugitive fuel emis-sions in coal mining operations and the combustionof firewood for cooking and heating. Insignificantemissions were derived from on-site burning with-in the land-use change and forestry sectors. Themethane carbon dioxide equivalent accounted to0.13 million tonnes, making up 2.1% of the coun-try’s total.

Emissions of Nitrous OxideThe country’s N2O emissions were a paltry 1.3 Kt.Most of this amount (93%) resulted from the limingof agricultural soils, agricultural waste burning andsavannah burning within the agriculture sector.

There were minute emissions in the all energy sec-tors of manufacturing and households arising fromfirewood combustion. This gas had a carbon diox-ide equivalent figure of 0.42 million tonnes andthus accounting for 6.6 % of the country's total.

Emissions of Precursors and FlourinatedCompounds Emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOX), carbonmonoxides (CO) and non-methane volatile com-pounds (NMVOCs) were estimated at 19.9, 523and 80 kilotonnes respectively. The largest contri-bution of NOX came from agriculture (60%) andfuel combustion of firewood under the residentialsector (38%). CO emissions emanated from similarsources whilst NMVOC emissions largely came fromindustrial processes.

The country's single largest contribution in terms ofcarbon dioxide equivalent was observed in thehydrofloucarbons HFCs category. This yielded some4.9 million tonnes amounting to 77.5% of thecountry's total. Such a level is attributed to the factthat the country has a significant refrigerator pro-duction plant for export markets. The gases weretherefore used in the refrigerator units as well as inair conditioners, fire extinguishers and to a lesserextent on solvents and aerosols.

Carbon dioxide removalsThe inventory revealed GHG sinks in the country'sland-use change and forestry sector. As mentioned,the managed forest plantations are significantly

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large, hence providing for substantial removals fora country the size of Swaziland. On the emissionsside, this sector produced some 2 910 Kt CO2, 60%of which were from commercial harvests, 25%from off-site burning through firewood combus-tion, and lesser amounts from liming of soils andother activities.

In contrast to the emission state of this sector, thesink capacity amounted to 6 168 Kt carbon dioxideremoval. The predominant carbon uptake offering99.5% of the removals was by trees from commer-cial plantations including non-forest trees in towns.The remainder was from abandoned areas.

On aggregate therefore, taking into account theamounts of emissions and sinks in all sectors thecountry's final GHG budget is of a net CO2 sink. CO2 emissions totalled some 3 784 Kt whilst thesink capacity was 6 168 Kt. The net balance infavour of sinks was a substantial 2 384 Kt. Such anachievement in GHG removal terms by the countryis considered significant in fulfiling the objectives ofthe Convention to tackle the very cause of climatechange.

1.4 IMPACTS AND ADAPTATIONThe high vulnerability of Africa to various manifes-tations of climate change has been confirmed inreports of the IPCC and other publications. In thecontext of Swaziland, the sectors that are climatesensitive and hence highly at risk are:• Water resources, especially in international

shared basins;• Agriculture, in issues of food security at

risk from declines in production in anuncertain climate;

• Natural resources and biodiversity, onfuture types of ecosystems, tree growth,distribution and mortality of species; and

• Health, on vector-borne diseases as theyrelate to anticipated changes in climateparameters, notably precipitation and tem-perature.

Climate ChangeSwaziland does not have sufficiently long instru-mental climate data to reliably construct past cli-mates. As a result the wider temperature record forAfrica south of the equator is used to present theclimate of the twentieth century for the sub-region.Such an analysis shows a warming of almost 1oChaving occurred between 1900 and the 1980s andan average warming of 0.05 0C per decade over thealmost 100 year period.

According to projections by the IIPCC, if currenttrends of GHG emissions remain unchanged, GHGconcentrations in the atmosphere will double bythe year 2075 with the result of global tempera-tures increasing by about 2.5 0C. Any future climatechange will most certainly have some form ofimpacts, not only on conditions of the physicalenvironment, but also on the overall socio-eco-nomic aspects of life.

As a first step to assess the extent of changes in thefuture climate of the country, a current climate base-line was established from available meteorologicalrecords. This was based on a thirty-year period(1961-1990) of data obtained from meteorologicalinstruments. The current climate classification for thecountry is therefore a humid and subtropical one.

In determining future climate scenarios, a simpleclimate model called MAGICC combined with aregional climate database called SCENGEN wasused. A choice of some three General CirculationModels (GCMs) were employed in running the sim-ulations based on how well they represent the cur-rent climate, their age and their resolution. Thesewere the UKTR, GFDL and CCC-EQ.

The projections from all the models point to tem-perature increases in future years though with vary-ing magnitudes. Precipitation projections on theother hand give mixed results. In general, the mod-els project total annual rainfall amounts by 2075falling below those received under current climateby single digit percentages. The monthly situationprojects amounts that are higher than those undercurrent climate in the late spring to mid summerperiod (October to January) For the rest of themonths of the year projections give future rainfallamounts that are lower than under current climate.

As most of the country’s annual rainfall is receivedover the summer period, an increase in precipita-tion over this period is likely to result in floodingconditions. The projections of winter rainfall reduc-tion also pose the problem of higher possibilities ofdrought occurrences. Other meteorological condi-tions that are related to either temperature or rain-fall are likely to be equally affected. These are theinitial risks that the country is likely to face in a cli-mate change situation.

Impacts on forests and woodland resourcesForests are an important resource in Swazilandbecause of their value in a variety of applications.Some of the value derived from the different tree


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species (exotic and indigenous) are as follows: com-mercially as a source of revenue, culturally for cere-monial use, health-wise in medicinal requirements,and nutritionally in providing food supplements torural communities. It is on the basis of these that anassessment of climate change impacts on this sectorwas considered important to undertake.

The forest species selected for the assessment weretwo exotic ones (pinus and eucalyptus) and fourindigenous ones (combretum, syzygium cordatum,sclerocarya birrea and pterocarpus angolensis).

EcosystemsIt was established that Swaziland is currently charac-terised by two ecosystem types. One is the subtropicalmoist forest which occurs on the high lying westernparts, and the other is the subtropical dry forest cov-ering the rest of the eastern half of country.

To assess the impacts of climate change on theseecosystems, future climate scenarios for the countrywere used as generated from the selected threeglobal climate models. These scenarios in generalpoint to a future climate featuring country wideincreases in temperatures and some varying pat-terns in seasonal rainfall.

The current and projected ecosystem types wereassessed by applying the Holdridge Life ZoneClassification Model on the climate scenariosobtained thus giving the potential land cover foreach location. The results show a westward shiftand shrinking in size of both the areas covered bythe subtropical moist and subtropical dry forests inthe future. Furthermore the country is projected tosee the introduction of a tropical very dry foresttype of ecosystem in the eastern flanks taking asmuch as up to one fifth of the total land area.

Tree growthThe vulnerability of tree species to climate changewas assessed with applying the Forest GAP modelon the climate scenarios. Simulations of future dis-tributions, tree growth and mortality of specieswere made based on environmental conditions. The general conclusion is that for both exotic treespecies biomass production is likely to increases inthe future compared to those being realised undercurrent climate. In terms of stem sizes, projectionsare that these will be slightly smaller under climatechange and as expected, more individuals will fallunder the smallest diameter ranges (0-10cm).

As for the four indigenous species, the biomassperformance shows mixed results but with more

tendency towards a general reduction. This factmay be attributed to the expected increase infuture temperatures in the areas where thesespecies strive coupled with the already low rainfallamounts which would cause high evapotranspira-tion and hence low overall water availability for theplants. The sclerocarya species is also likely to dom-inate over the three others whilst syzigium is likelyto be compromised by climate change.

Impacts on Water ResourcesThe future performance of climate will most certainlyhave a primary effect on water resources and as suchmake this sector key in impact assessment studies.Thestudy was made to focus on one river, the Great Usutumainly because of the great socio-economic signifi-cance of this basin, being one within which aboutthree quarters of the country’s population lives.

The response of the Usutu river to climate changewas evaluated using outputs of the three GCMs(GFDL, UKTR, and CCC-EQ) The results obtainedwere then used as inputs to the WatBall modelwhich is an integrated rainfall-runoff model forforecasting stream flow.

The model runs gave projections up to the year2075 for this river. In summary, the model projectsstream flows that are higher than those under cur-rent climate in the late spring to mid summer peri-od (October to January). For the rest of the monthsof the year projections give future flows that aresubstantially lower than those of correspondingmonths under the current climate.

In terms of total annual runoff, the GCMs give anoverall average reduction in runoff ranging from 2to 6% in a normal year and even higher for dryyears. Such changes will translate to increased pos-sibilities of flooding in the rainy season due to high-er flows and drought-related conditions in winterdue to low flows. As the projections depict anoverall reduction in annual runoff, the drought con-ditions are expected to be more pronounced andfrequent features of future climate than shall bethe floods. Effects of this will likely find its way intogroundwater recharges and salinity as well as damcapacities.

Impacts on AgricultureAgricultural production, which is one of the coun-try’s leading contributor to GDP is very sensitive toweather variations. To assess the performance ofthree major crops under the present climate as wellas under projected future conditions (2025), the

Decision Support System for Agrotechnical Transfer(DSSAT3) was employed.

The general observation was that for the maize crop,most of the country could be unsuitable for itsgrowth since yields are estimated to decrease consid-erably. In the other regions yields could be improvedby changing the planting season from the traditionalsecond week of October to the second week ofAugust. For sorghum and beans, yields are also pro-jected to decrease in general with the exception ofthe western parts where these are currently notgrown extensively.

1.5 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF STEPS

Mitigation OptionsAn attempt was made to elaborate on steps thathave either been taken or envisaged by the countryto implement the Convention. The mitigationoptions considered were mainly centred in theEnergy and Forestry sectors as these are wheremost opportunities for intervention are.

In energy, mitigation would be meaningful on boththe supply and end-use.

The supply side:Electricity generation through cogeneration by theuse of high-pressure steam turbines burningbagasse and wood-pulp residue as input fuel.End-use side:

º Energy efficient boilers, and electric motors

º Matching electric supply to demand

º Improved maintenance and inspection of motor vehicles

º Gasoline/ethanol blending

º Efficient lighting systems

º Use of solar geysers

º Improved wood stoves

º Switching from the use of wood and kerosene

to LPG and electric stoves

In Forestry, the mitigation intervention couldinclude the following:

º Increasing area under forest cover and reducing degraded areas

º Establishment of additional woodlots

º Introducing agro-forestry activities

Policies and other measuresThe country has in the past spelled out its develop-ment objectives through various frameworks andset strategies to achieve these. As the significanceof environmental issues began to emerge, therehas been a move to model such policies and actionsto embrace this domain more comprehensively.Notably, the government's environment legislationhas been strengthened to require both the publicand private sectors to ensure that all their futurepolicies and strategies take environmental consid-erations into account. This is considered a strengthto supporting the requirements of the Conventionas inherent climate change considerations can becovered to some degree. Supporting policy interven-tions and strategies are either already in place or in theprocess of being promulgated in other areas includingEnergy, Forestry, Water resources, Transport,Agriculture and Land.

Financial and Technological needs and constraintsThrough undertaking the process of compiling theNational Communication, the country has identi-fied several areas with constraints that need to beattended to. Firstly institutional infrastructures forfacilitating a continuous process of undertakingsuch assessments and related activities was identi-fied as weak. There therefore is need for the struc-tures to be strengthened for more efficient coordi-nation and execution of processes and activities forpurposes of future National Communications.

There also is the element of inadequate local techno-logical capacity to expedite in an effective manner thetasks of undertaking the assessments. Capacity build-ing is therefore required in the human resourcedomain to ensure availability of a pool of experts thatthe process can draw from. Similarly technology trans-fer is increasingly more desirable if more efficient andenvironmentally friendly systems and technologies areto be introduced. Together with these, is the lack ofcomprehensive local data and country-specific infor-mation to support the studies. The physical record-ing network requires strengthening to ensure sys-tematic observations, as do the related informationcollection and management systems.

As a developing country with many priority issues toconsider, Swaziland’s financial resources are not ade-quate for use in making a meaningful intervention inthe Convention’s implementation. The many goodmeasures identified in this study are not possible toundertake without some form of financial support.The country can certainly join the international effortto protect the global climate system with the supportand assistance from other partners.

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2.1 GEOGRAPHY

The Kingdom of Swaziland, is situated in South EasternAfrica between the 25th and 28th parallels and longi-tudes 31° and 32° East. It lies some 48 to 225 kilometresinland of the Indian Ocean littoral and hence physicallylandlocked, meaning all traffic in and out of the countryhas to be routed via one of its neighbours, South Africaor Mozambique.The country has a total surface area of17,360 km2 and as such, the smallest country in thesouthern hemisphere.

It is bounded by the Republic of South Africa in thenorth, west and south, and by Mozambique on theeast (Figure 2.1). Although small in size, Swazilandis characterized by a great variation in landscape,geology and climate. It also lies within theMaputoland Centre, an area reported to have thegreatest biodiversity in Southern Africa.

There are four distinct physiographic regions with-in the country (highveld, middleveld, lowveld andlubombo) which are clearly distinguished by eleva-tion and relief (Murdoch, 1970).

Major landforms featuring mountains, hills andplains characterize the east to west cross-section ofthe country, giving rise to valleys, plateaux andbasins.

Although the country has historically been dividedinto the four physiographic zones, it has now beenmore appropriately reclassified into six , taking intoaccount climate, elevation, landforms, geology,soils and vegetation. Characteristics of these phys-iographic zones including landforms and altitudes(representing the common ranges, not extremes),are given in Table 2.1.

The Highveld (33%) of the country’s total land area,is the upper part of an overall escarpment. It con-sists of a complex of steep slopes between low andhigh levels, dissected plateaux, plateau remnantsand associated hills, valleys and basins.

The Upper Middleveld (14%) consists of stronglyeroded plateau remnants and hills at an intermedi-ate level of overall escarpment. It also containsstructurally defined basins in relatively protectedpositions, which are only weakly eroded.

The Lower Middleveld (14%) is basically the pied-mont zone of the escarpment, characterized bygenerally strongly eroded foot slopes. The overallslopes are predominantly moderate and the zoneclassifies at the first level as a plain.

The Lowveld plain consists of sedimentary and vol-canic Karro beds versus the igneous and metamor-phic rocks of the Highveld and Middleveld.

The Lowveld is subdivided into the higher WesternLowveld (20%) on sandstone or clay stone, and thelower Eastern Lowveld (11%) on basalt.

The sixth zone is the Lubombo Range (8%), a cues-ta with a steep escarpment bordering the EasternLowveld and a gradual dip slope of about 1:20descending east. As a major landform the Lebomboqualifies as a plateau.

National Circumstances

Chapter

2

Figure 2.1 Swaziland

Source: National Meteorological Service

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The Lowveld plain consists of sedimentary and vol-canic Karro beds versus the igneous and metaphor-phic rocks of the Highveld and Middleveld.

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Source: Remmenzwaal (1993)

Fog capped interlocking hills of the highveld with Ngwenya mountains behind

Table 2.1 Physiographic regions of Swaziland

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2.2 CLIMATE

Swaziland enjoys a climate which is generally sub-tropical, with hot and wet summers and cold anddry winters. Further variations in climatic conditionsoccur within the different physiographic regionsgiving rise to three clearly distinguishable climatetypes.

The highveld and upper middleveld are charac-terised by a Cwb climate. The lower middleveld andlubombo range have a Cwa climate whilst thewestern and eastern lowveld have a Bsh climate(Murdoch, 1970).

Mean annual rainfall ranges from about 1500 mil-limetres in the highveld to a little less than 500 mil-limetres in the southern lowveld. Figure 2.2 givesthe distribution of mean annual rainfall within thecountry.

The Highveld’s temperate climate is characterised bywet summers and dry winters, and annual rainfallaveraging 1500 millimetres. Temperatures varybetween a maximum of about 33 ˚C in mid-summerand 0 ̊ C at night in mid-winter. On the other extremeend is the Lowveld which experiences a sub-tropicalclimate. This region receives the lowest annual rainfallof about 450 mm. There is also a large diurnal tem-

perature range experienced here with maximum tem-peratures reaching the upper 30’s not uncommon.Semi-arid pockets of areas are found in this region,which is also liable to desertification. The frequencyof heavy downpours is more uniform acrossSwaziland than is total rainfall. Between 75% and83% of precipitation (summed mean monthlyamounts) comes in summer (October - March).

The country is prone to occurencies of natural dis-asters, such as tropical cyclones on one end anddrought on the other. The latest and longestdrought experienced occurred during the period of1989 -1994. Climate change is therefore likely tohave a bearing on the frequency and magnitude ofthese events and their associated impacts.

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Little Usutu river waterfall at Mantenga

Table 2.2 Average annual temperature and rainfall by physiographic region

1400 1200 1000 800 700 600 500

Figure 2.2 Mean annual rainfall distribution

Source: National Meteorological Service

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2.3 Population

Swaziland’s population in 1994 was estimated at870 000 with an annual growth rate of 3.2%. Highrates of fertility (5.6 lifetime births per woman) alsoprevail accompanied by high, albeit deceleratingmortality rates (compared to other countries withsimilar per capita GDP).

The population is fairly evenly distributed acrossthe four administrative regions, reflecting the factthat the country is devoid of natural barriersinhibiting human settlements.

The country’s population, which may be dividedinto 76% rural and 25% urban is a young one. Thecountry’s age-sex pyramid is broad-based with a60% of the population under the age of 21 years.

The de-facto population for the period 1976-1995is presented in Figure 2.3 and the projections ofpopulation growth rates are given in Table 2.6.

The high incidence of HIV/AIDS could have animpact on future population projections and relat-ed socio-economic performances. Life expectancyis currently estimated at 52,8 years for men and59,8 years for women.

Swaziland people at a national ceremony

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Figure 2.3 Swaziland’s de facto Population (1976-1995)

Source: Central Statistics Office

Population (‘000)


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2.4 THE ECONOMY

Swaziland has a small, but strongly export-orientedeconomy. In the 1993/94 fiscal period, the countryrealized exports that were 70% of the grossdomestic product and imports of 80%. Economicactivity, which is vibrant in the country, is an impor-tant source of Green house gas (GHG) emissions.

The main economic sectors in Swaziland includeagriculture, forestry, mining, manufacturing, con-struction, electricity and water, transport and com-munications, and government services.

Emissions of GHG stem from a variety of humanactivities. The agriculture and forestry sectors areamong the most active active in the Swazilandeconomy and are responsible for large amounts ofGHG emissions as levels of consumer demandincrease.

Similarly, the nature of the economy, as well as thephysical circumstances display the country’s partic-ular vulnerability to climate change and its relatedadverse effects.

In considering economic activity and its contribu-tion to climate change, several macroeconomicvariables have been examined. These include,amongst others, growth trends of Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) and demographic information.

2.4.1Economic Performance

Over the years since 1968 when Swazilandobtained her independence, the country’s economyhas experienced remarkable economic growth,social progress, political stability and human devel-opment. The historical economic environment ofthe country up to the 1980s was hence character-ized by positive growth and a notable surplus posi-tion.

The upward trend however slowed down around the1980s impacting on several important features of thenation’s development, including the per capitaincome growth. The major causes of the decliningtrend were the decline in foreign investment inflows(particularly since the 1990s), recurring drought con-ditions (spanning the period 1989-1994), high popu-lation growth rates and other contributing factorsincluding the poor overall performance of economiesof the subregion. The recent decline in economicgrowth saw a low of -0.1% in 1991/92 and a slightrecovery thereafter reaching about 3% in 1994.

Official statistics indicate that real gross domesticproduct at factor cost grew at an average 2.8% perannum during the period 1989/90-1993/94. Table2.3 presents the important indicators of the coun-try’s national situation for the base year 1994. Thetotal GDP at factor cost and at current prices forthat year stood at 3 047 million Emalangeni (US$878 million). The corresponding GDP per capitawas E 4 308 (US$1 240).

Table 2.3 Swaziland’s National Circumstances

Source: Central Statistics

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2.4.2Sectors of the Economy

An analysis of the share of each sector on the over-all country’s GDP shows the category of servicesassuming the lion’s share at about 35.5% in 1994.This includes, in descending order, governmentservices, wholesale and retail, transport, banking,financial and other related services.

A summary of the country’s GDP by sector of origin andtheir relative share is presented on table 2.4. Secondaryproduction is the second largest category making upthe GDP with a total contribution of 32.7%.

The activities under this category are manufac-turing, electricity and water and construc-tion.Manufacturing growth is largely attrib-uted to the increase in production of drink pro-cessing and sugar based production activities.

The share of manufacturing alone is 27.5%.The rest of the other sectors, namely agriculture,mining and forestry account for 10.2%, 1.4% and0.7% of GDP respectively. This shows a level ofdiversification of the country’s economy from heavyreliance on any one particular sector.

Within the agricultural and forest sectors, sugarand wood pulp have been the main contributors tothe Swaziland economy. Production of sugar andwood pulp is directly derived from the agriculturaland forestry sectors respectively.

Processing of raw materials in the productionof these two involve complex industrialprocesses, which add to the emissions ofGHG.These processes therefore need to beconsidered when determining adaptation andmitigation strategies for the country.

Table 2.4 Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin at Current Prices

Source: Central Statistics Office

Mbabane, capital of Swaziland

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Swaziland is one of the leading producers of softdrink concentrate and a supplier of the majority ofAfrican countries and beyond.This has lead to anincrease in the production of miscellaneous edi-bles.The type of energy used is worth investigationfor their contribution to GHG levels.

With regard to exchange rates, the Lilangeni isrecorded to have been steady at 2:1 US$ in the mid1980s and a relatively small drop to an average ofabout 3.4:1 US$ in 1994. The Lilangeni is peggedto the South African Rand at par.

Swaziland also belongs together with South Africa,to a common monetary area agreement. It is also amember of the Southern African Customs Union(SACU) of which South Africa is a dominant partner.

2.4.3 Country Developmental Strategies

The country’s development objectives outliningnational priority issues have been central in struc-turing Swaziland’s anticipated intervention in com-mitments of the Climate Convention and others. Toattempt an initial assessment of climate changeimpacts and identification of mitigation options,baseline projections have been developed usingsets of assumptions depicting the expected patternof economic development. In particular, countryobjectives as presented in the NationalDevelopment Strategy (NDS), were consideredwhen making sector projections and overall coun-try projections.

It is important to note that the country continues touse the three-year rolling National DevelopmentPlans (NDPs). These are now designed in the con-text of the long term plan NDS (twenty five year).The NDS, NDPs and annual budgets jointly, aredesigned to ensure that aspirations of theGovernment of Swaziland for the welfare of itspeople are translated into actionable policies andprogrammes to ensure optimization of resourceallocation.

Before making the baseline projections, it is impor-tant to provide a summary of Government’s objec-tives regarding Swaziland’s development and thewelfare of its citizens. The Government ofSwaziland has as part of its main objective endeav-oured to address three main areas: good gover-nance, a vibrant economy, and human and socialdevelopment.

Good governance encompasses such issues as con-stitutionalism, the role of the State, and traditionand culture. One of the initiatives, which came up,as a direct consequence was the setting up of theConstitutional Review Commission (CRC), aimed atsoliciting views of the nation on areas that warrantinclusion into the country's constitution. Thisprocess, when completed, is expected to helpassess various elements of good governance, whichinclude, inter alia, legitimacy, accountability trans-parency and popular participation.

Strategies aimed at improving human and socialdevelopment include ensuring high levels of foodsecurity, provision of proper human settlementsand shelter, initiatives aimed at human resourcedevelopment and improvements in health ameni-ties. Provision of safe water and sanitation as wellas programmes aimed at containing the populationgrowth rate are paramount for improvement of thenation’s standards of living.

Before we turn to our model for the developmentof the baseline scenario it is important to state thecountry’s vision encapsulated in the NDS docu-ment, which reads as follows:

"By the year 2022, the Kingdom of Swaziland willbe in the top 10% of the medium human develop-ment group of countries founded on sustainableeconomic development.”

In essence what the country determines is to speedup the pace at which it bids for enhancement ofhuman capabilities.

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2.4.4System of National Accounts:GDP Projections.

In developing the baseline for impact assessmentsand mitigation analysis a model referred to as theSimplified Macroeconomic Analysis of GHG(SMAG) has been used in the quantification ofchanges in the economic sectors deemed impor-tant in relation to GHG limitation.

This simplified assessment involves the use of exist-ing statistics in which all projections for GDP (Table

2.5) are based on national accounts data. Theseprojections were computed using simple movingaverages. Had there been an advanced method ofcompiling national statistics capable of providingdetailed multi sectoral information then it wouldhave been possible to engage Computable GeneralEquilibrium Models (CGE models) when analysingclimate change mitigation.

CGE models consist of a number of complex equa-tions, which places great demand on data and otherresources. Projections of population growth rates forthe period 1994-2030 were also computed for thisassessment (Table 2.6).

Since Swaziland has relatively good statistics and devel-opment plans it has been possible to carry out assess-ment such as the SMAG, which provides a deeper mit-igation analysis than a purely descriptive approach.The analysis contained in this report, therefore, offers asuperior decision framework for GHG limitation com-pared to a purely descriptive approach.

The background information provided on the variouseconomic sectors associated with GHG emissions andan in-depth look into the country’s developmentalobjectives provided a good base for application ofSMAG.

Table 2.6 Projections of Population Growth Rates (1994-2030)

Parliament buildings at Lobamba in the middleveld

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Table 2.5 Projection for average growth rates of the GDP by sector 1994-2030


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2.5 AGRICULTURE

Swaziland commands two agriculture productionsystems. One is on Swazi Nation Land (SNL) wherethere is communal ownership of land and the otheris on Individual Tenure Farms (ITFs) where there isprivate ownership of land. Production of crops andlivestock on SNL is mainly subsistence whilst pro-duction on ITFs is commercial and consist of hugefarms under irrigation. Agricultural production onSNL has remained low and technology used hasremained rudimentary.

Although Swaziland has succeeded in achievingself-sufficiency in agriculture, she has failed toachieve self-reliance and as such remains a netimporter of agricultural produce. In spite of thevarious agriculture promotion programmes thecountry has failed to exploit its comparative advan-tage in the production of several types of crops.

Attempts to encourage maize production have beenhampered by unfavourable soil and climate conditions.Even in those cases where agricultural productionresponded positively to initiatives by the public sector,cooperatives and NGOs, the lack of markets posed aserious obstacle to the advancement of the sector.

In spite of its poor performance, agricultureremains the mainstay of the Swaziland economy.Projections in Table 2.5 indicate that this sector ispossibly expected to continue to account for, atleast, 13% of GDP over the next 30 years. Shouldthe country succeed in its endeavour to developand promote agricultural technologies that are costeffective, acceptable to all stakeholders and envi-ronmentally friendly, the objective of self-relianceshall not always remain elusive.

Use of advanced technologies in the production ofhigh value crop such as sugar, citrus, cotton andtobacco can be expected to increase yield and com-mercial value and thus improve the status of theagricultural sector as a foreign exchange earner.

Climate change mitigation policies have the pri-mary responsibility of addressing themselves tochanges aimed at ensuring improved yields on bothSNL and ITF. Swaziland is capable of realizing bothits goals of self-sufficiency and self-reliance in agri-cultural production.

Sugar crop under irrigation at Simunye

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2.6 FORESTRY

Forestry is an important economic activity, on aver-age this sector accounts for 1.3% of the country’sGDP. As a foreign exchange earner wood pulp issecond only to sugar. Presently this sector accountsfor, approximately, 10% export value.

Despite the country’s small size, Swaziland has oneof the largest man-made forests in the world.These man made forests account for 6% of thetotal land mass. These vast plantations of pinetrees have been well managed and continue to bean important source of input for the pulp industry.Favourable climatic conditions and appropriate irri-gation practices give Swaziland a competitiveadvantage in this resource.

Indigenous woodlands and wattle plantationsaccount for 25% and 2% respectively, of the totalland mass. These two types of forests have notbeen well managed and have suffered from defor-estation as a result of the rapid increase in the

country’s population. Large amounts of forest areahave had to be cleared in order to put up buildingsboth for domestic and commercial use.

These forests also serve as the main sources ofwood fuel and raw material for wood products andhomestead construction. Deforestation has led toserious land degradation and loss of biodiversity.

This is a clear indication that Swaziland has a verybig challenge to ensure that afforestation cam-paigns are effective for the goal of sustainabledevelopment to be realized. Restoration of indige-nous forest shall definitely require sound ruraldevelopment programmes.

So far, Rural Development Area Programmes(RDAPs) have mainly addressed themselves to theimprovement of agricultural programmes to,almost, a total neglect of the forestry sector savefor a few tree planting campaigns undertaken in aselected number of areas in the country.

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Indigenous and exotic forests against the backdrop of the Bulembu mountains in Piggs peak


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2.7 INDUSTRY / MANUFACTURING

The manufacturing sector has always been thecountry’s main contributor to GDP. Projections forGDP over the 30-year period indicate that this sec-tor is likely to continue as the leading source ofnational income.

The impetus to growth in this sector is attributableto Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) attracted in thepast, mainly by a favourable industrial climate char-acterized by the abundance of trainable labour atcompetitive wages, a poorly unionised labourresource and a relatively stable political situation.

The manufacturing sector consists mainly of agro-based processing industries, which have survivedbecause of good soils and climatic conditions.Sustainability of these industries depends on,among other things, the extent to which climatechange mitigation policies are effectively imple-mented.

Reduction of GHG emissions is therefore key in thestrategies to sustain the agro-based industry.

Successful environmental degradation abatementactions also have a direct positive socio-economicimpact. As was alluded to earlier on, the privateformal sector is one of the main employers of thelabour force, maintaining high levels of productivi-ty in this sector guarantees employment of largesegments of the population, particularly, if produc-tion is kept relatively labour intensive.

It is important to note that the manufacturing sectorin Swaziland has recently been seriously challengedby changes taking place in neighbouring countries,particularly those of a political nature. The new dem-ocratic and thus favourable political climate in theRepublic of South Africa led to a relocation of largeamounts of foreign capital. Political and economicimprovements in the Republic of Mozambique arealso likely to display similar behaviour.

The challenge for Swaziland therefore is to find apossible and long lasting solution to foster sounddomestic macroeconomic development in the con-text of regional cooperation and maintenance ofhealthy competition with her neighbours.

Industries at Matsapa - the country’s main manufacturing site.


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2.8 MAJOR LAND USE ACTIVITIES

Grazing occupies about 63% of the country’s totalland area and most of the grazing is restricted tothe SNL. In 1989/90, natural veld comprised 95%of the land available for grazing (SwazilandGovernment 1994), with the remaining 5% beingimproved pasture used mainly for dairy production.However considerable portions of the grazing landexist in arable,grazing,settlement mosaics and havebeen dramatically modified by cultivation, heavygrazing, and human and livestock populationincreases over the past two to three decades suchthat they are no longer true rangelands supportingpredominantly natural vegetation.

This is attributed to the fact that cattle are inti-mately involved in Swazi custom and culture, andare regarded as a store of wealth. They are impor-tant as sources of meat, milk, manure, and draughtpower for ploughing and transport. About 65% ofrural homesteads keep cattle, which make a signif-icant contribution to income from farming activi-ties, perhaps between 30% and 50% of annualincome (Swaziland Government 1983).

There are no restrictions on the number of livestockthat an individual can own, and those without live-stock have a right to grazing for any they eventual-ly acquire. Cattle are put out to graze during the

day, and returned to the kraal at night, when calvesare separated from the cows, which are milked inthe morning.

The practice of fallowing in the croplands has beendecreasing due to the increase in population lead-ing to higher demands for cropped land. A largepart of the SNL is under maize production, which isthe staple food of Swaziland.

Sugarcane is the leading crop in TDL and it is themain source of foreign exchange for the country.The value of export of sugar was 25% of the totalnational export in 1992 (Swaziland Government1994b).

Commercial forest is the third most common landuse in Swaziland. This activity is predominantlybased on large plantations operated by the privatesector. (6%)

The remaining 20% of land in the country is eitherresidential, held in the form of natural reserves,water reservoirs and their catchments, or is used bya wide variety of land uses in small areas such asquarrying, orchards, market gardening, etc.

Various land use types at the Ezulwini valley

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2.9 TRANSPORT

The efficient functioning of the economy isdependent upon a good network of transport andcommunication infrastructure and the availability oftransport services. The Swaziland Government andits either wholly or partially owned parastatalorganisations have a direct role to play in the provi-sion and maintenance of an infrastructure networkwhich is adequate to satisfy all effective demand. Inaddition, government provides a number of trans-port services and is responsible for regulating serv-ices provided by private enterprises in order toensure fair competition and adherence to basicsafety standards.

Government strives to promote a balanced multimodal split which facilitates the development andgrowth of all transport modes, the enhancement oftelecommunications and to coordinate all activitieswithin the sector.

Swaziland’s transport services are well developedand cover the spectrum of requirements for themovement of goods and people. Several operationsspecialising in a diversity of services operate withinthe country and are professionally run to high stan-dards. However, public transport by bus is an area,which continues to need improvement.

Air links to regional and international destinations arefacilitated through commercial carriers, including thenational airline; (charter companies operate to com-plement these services.)

2.9.1Road Transport

The road network has subsequently undergoneexpensive upgrading and today ranks among thebest in the continent, while effective rail links alsoensure the prompt, efficient movement of importand export commodities.

New classification of roads adopted in 1970, hasaccounted for the decrease in length of main roads.

2.9.2Air Transport

There is only one airport in Swaziland, Manzini, sit-uated at Matsapa, 37 kilometres from Mbabane.Until 1971 no air transport statistics were avail-able, so the data were collected retrospectivelyfrom the files of the Ministry of Transport andCommunications together with those of theMatsapa Airport Authorities.

2.9.3Rail Transport

The Swaziland Railway is 220,4 kilometres insideSwaziland and continues a further 74,0 kilometresto connect with the port of Maputo. The line wasoriginally built for the transport of iron ore fromNgwenya to Maputo, but with the growth of theeconomy, other traffic, consisting mainly of sugar,pulp and citrus, is being supported.

Transnational autobahn linking the Mbabane and Manzini cities.

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3.1 INTRODUCTION

IN accordance with article 4.1 (a) of the UnitedNations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC), all parties to the Conventionare requested to update and report periodically ontheir national inventory of anthropogenic emissionsand removal of greenhouse gases (GHG). This sec-tion of the national communication of Swazilandgives an outline of anthropogenic greenhouse(GHG) emissions and removals for the year 1994.

The inventory focuses on direct GHG emissions;carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and NitrousOxide (N20). Other Non-CO2 emissions gases whichhave been considered and have an indirect effecton climate change through their influence on othergreenhouse gases, especially ozone are precursorse.g. oxides of Nitrogen (NOX), carbon monoxide(CO), and non methane volatile compounds(NMVOCs). In keeping with the IPCC guidelines,emissions from international bunkers are treatedseparately. Information is also available for emis-sions of perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocar-bons (HFCs) and sulphurhexafluoride (SF6).

3.2 METHODOLOGY

The calculated emissions and removals of green-house gases for 1994 were based on the Revised1996 IPCC Inventory Guidelines for NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventories. The source categories;energy (fuel combustion and fugitive emissions);industrial processes; agriculture; land-use changeand forestry, and waste. were adopted with IPCCdefault emissions factors used and with the excep-tion of waste, where the regional default factors forTanzania were used. The methodology used for CO2

and non-CO2 emissions in the energy category wasIPCC bottom -up sectoral approach. Energy activitydata (total quantities of solid and liquid fossil fuelsproduced, imported, exported and consumed) wasobtained from the Energy Section of the Ministry ofNatural Resources and Energy. Conversion factorsfor various fuels used were IPCC default.

CO2 and non-CO2 emissions from industrial activi-ties were determined from various activities andincluded are road paving, food and drink and chem-ical products use. The general methodology usedinvolves knowledge of the product of activity levele.g. amount of material produced or consumed,and an associated emission factor per unit con-sumption/production. Activity data on quantitiesconsumed/produced was obtained from variousindustries.

Also provided is data on consumption of HFCs, PFCsand SF6 associated with application of refrigerationand air conditioning, fire suppression and, gas insulat-ed switch gear and circuit breakers.

Emissions from agriculture namely CH4, N20, CO andNOX were determined from five sources: domesticlivestock (enteric fermentation and manure manage-ment), rice cultivation, prescribed burning of savan-nas, field burning of agricultural residuals and agricul-tural soils. Activity data, on number and type of ani-mals, annual harvested area cultivated under continu-ously flooded conditions, area of savanna and grass-land burnt annually, and fraction of agricultural resid-uals that are annually burnt, was obtained from gen-eral statistics of the Government of Swaziland.

The methodology for determining CO2 and non-CO2emissions from land-use change and forestry andremovals was in accordance with 1996 IPCC method-ology modified to include sources of emissions andremoval which covered agriculture, firewood, timber,settlements and plantations. Activity data such asabandoned area during and over 20-year periods wasobtained from central statistics office.

CH4 is the predominant greenhouse gas from waste.Using IPCC methodology, CH4 was determined fromsolid waste disposal sites, domestic/commercialwastewater and sludge, and industrial waste andsludge. Activity data was obtained from the follow-ing industries: Non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages,meet and poultry, dairy products, sugar, and pulp andpaper.

Greenhouse Gas Inventories

Chapter

3


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Table 3.1 Swaziland’s greenhouse gas inventories overview in kilotonnes (Gigagramms per year) 1994


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3.3 NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMIS-SIONS OVERVIEW

The national inventory has been organised intofive parts corresponding to five of the six majorsource activities described in the 1996 IPCCGuidelines as follows:

(i) Energy(Fuel Combustion Activities)

a) Householdb) Agriculturec) Manufacturingd) Commerciale) Transport

(Fugitive Emissions)a) Coal mining

(ii) Industrial Processesa) Pulp and paperb) Food and drinkc) Air conditioning and refrigerationd) Fire extinguishers- solvents and aerosolse) Road paving

(iii) Agriculturea) Domestic livestockb) Animal wastec) Rice cultivationd) Savannah burninge) Agricultural waste burningf) Agricultural soils

(iv) Land Use and Forestry(Emissions)

a) On-site burningb) On-site decayc) Off-site burningd) Commercial harveste) Liming of soils

(Sinks)a) Carbon uptake by tressb) Carbon uptake in abandoned areas

(v) Wastea) Solid waste disposal sitesb) Domestic/Commercial waste water and

sludgec) Industrial waste water and sludge

Table 3.1 gives an overview of greenhouse gasemissions and removals in Swaziland for the year1994.

3.4 GWP EFFECTS ON TOTAL EMISSIONS

An overall picture of Swaziland's contribution toradioactive forcing from greenhouse gas emissionsis given using Global Warming Potentials (GWPs)from Table 3.2. The GWPs are calculated for a timehorizon of 100 years are direct and indirect forgases and for methane respectively.

3.5 Emissions of CO2 CH4 and N2O

3.5.1 Emissions of CO2

Swaziland's contribution of CO2 amounted to 873870 tonnes in the year 1994, (representing 0.873tonnes CO2 per capita).Virtually all CO2 emissionsemanated from fuel combustion (energy) charac-terised by household, manufacturing, commercialand transport sectors.

There were no CO2 emissions from industrial process-es. The largest single source of CO2 in Swaziland isthe transport sector, which accounted for 50% ofenergy CO2 emissions in 1994. The manufacturing,household and commercial sectors accounted for32.0%, 15.0% and 3.0% respectively.

The relatively high contribution of CO2 from theresidential sector is due to use of coal, liquefiedpetroleum gas (LPG) and to some extent kerosenefor heating purposes in households. The largestcontribution of CO2 from the manufacturing sec-tor comes from the use of coal for steam genera-tion in the pulp and paper, and food processingand beverages industries. Given on Figure 3.1 is theratio of CO2 emission per sector.

Table 3.2: Global warming potentials (GWPs)

Figure 3.1 Ratio of CO2 emissions per category

50%

3%32%

15%


28

3.5.2Emissions of CH4

Total methane emissions in Swaziland for 1994amounted to 64 370 tonnes. The dominantsources of CH4 emissions are agriculture (66.9%)and waste (27.3%). Fuel combustion and coalmining contribute 5.5% of total CH4 emissions(Figure 3.2).

Within the agriculture sector, the largest contribu-tion (60%) comes from domestic livestock influ-enced by enteric fermentation.

In 1994, there were 642,000 and 435,000 of non-dairy cattle and goats; respectively which both con-tributed 97.0% of total CH4 emissions from thedomestic livestock.

Under fuel combustion, the largest contribution(85.0%) derives from the residential sector involv-ing combustion of firewood for cooking and heat-ing purposes.

In waste, the largest contribution (93.0%) comesfrom industrial waste dominated by the beer andpulp and paper industries.

3.5.3Emissions of N2O

Swaziland's total anthropogenic emission of N2O in1994 is estimated at 1 337 tonnes. The major con-tributor was agriculture (93.0%) predominantlyfrom liming of agricultural soils followed by fuelcombustion (7.4%). Within the fuel combustioncategory, 35% of the N2O emissions were attrib-uted to the residential sector, mainly from combus-tion of firewood for cooking and heating purposes.Given on Figure 3.3 is the ratio of N2O emissionsper category in 1994.

3.6 EMISSIONS OF OTHER GHGs (PCFs,SF6 AND HFCs)

In view of the nature of Swaziland's manufacturingindustries notably the assembling of air condition-ing and refrigeration systems, direct data was col-lected on consumptions of HFCs.

For the year 1994, 153.3 tonnes of HFCs were esti-mated to have been discharged into the atmos-phere. In addition, 3 361 tonnes of HFCs were esti-mated to have been discharged from fire extin-guishers, solvent and aerosols, making a total of3 771 tonnes from the two sources.

3.7 EMISSIONS OF PRECURSORS (CO,NOX AND NMVOCs)

Precursors are gases such as NOX, CO andNMVOCs, which have an indirect effect on the cli-mate through their influence on other GHGs, espe-cially ozone. Emissions for NOX, CO and NMVOCsfor the year 1994 were estimated at 19 930, 523048, and 80 011 tonnes respectively. The largestcontribution of NOX comes from agriculture (60%)and fuel combustion (38.0%), again mainly fromcombustion of firewood under the residential sec-tor. The same trends was noted for CO, whilstNMVOC emissions' largest contributions emanatedfrom industrial processes (86.0%).

3.8 EMISSIONS OF CO2 EQUIVALENTS

Total emissions of GHGs given as CO2 equivalentsfor the year 1994 using the GWP values quoted inTables 3.2 are given in Table 3.3.

Figure 3.2 Ratio of CH4 emissions per category

Figure 3.3: Ratio of N2O emissions per category

Table 3.3 Total Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

for the year 1994

0%

27%

6%

67%

7%

93%


29

GWP taken account of, altogether 6.33 milliontonnes of CO2 equivalent is estimated. The largestcontribution (77.5%) emanates from consumptionof HFC's in air conditioning and refrigeration sys-tems, and fire extinguishers on one hand, and theuse of solvents and aerosols on the other.

The second largest source of CO2 equivalents isCO2 (13.8%). The Contribution of N2O and CH4emissions to CO2 equivalents were estimated at6.6% and 2.1%, respectively.

3.9 CO2 REMOVALS

The main sources of CO2 emissions in Swazilandunder land-use change and forestry are commercialharvests (60.0%), and offsite burning through fire-wood combustion (25.0%).

Liming of agricultural soils, on-site burning and on-site decay contributions were estimated at 8.5%,3.4% and 3.1% respectively. Given on Table 3.4are CO2 emissions from identified sources above.

Swaziland possesses a comparetively large GHGsink capacity, owing to the very large man madeand indigenous forest cover in the country, the for-mer ranking amongst the largest such in the world.The major sinks therefore are carbon up-take bytrees predominantly from commercial plantationsincluding non-forest trees planted in major cities.These all together account for 99.5% of the coun-try’s overall uptake. A small fraction is carbon up-take in abandoned areas (0.5%).

Table 3.5 shows the final GHG budget forSwaziland for the year 1994. Results from thistable indicate that the balance which takesaccount of emissions and sinks is a net sink for theyear 1994 by 2.383 million tonnes carbon dioxideup-take.

3.10 INTERNATIONAL BUNKERS

As in accordance with IPCC guidelines emissionsfrom international bunkers were reported separate-ly. In the year 1994, 3,640 tonnes of carbon diox-ide were emitted into the atmosphere under inter-national bunkers. The fuels used in internationaltransport is jet kerosene.

3.11 UNCERTAINTIES AND FURTHERWORK

In undertaking this study, in all respects, defaultemission factors were used as a result of absence ofcountry-specific emissions factors and ratios partic-ularly in firewood combustion, agriculture, land-usechange and forestry, and waste. There is need tohave further work to develop local specific emis-sion factors and ratios.

Another area of concern is the source and avail-ability of activity data in energy particularly biomassand in the other sectors; agriculture, land-usechange and waste. For example, activity data avail-ability, variability and reliability under land-usechange (in particular, area converted annually, areaconverted under different periods of time, area ofabandoned land, net change in biomass density,fraction of biomass burned on site etc), causedimmense difficulties.

Furthermore, work under land-use change andforestry requires generation of activity data throughsocial and corresponding forest survey, forestinventories and studies and experimental relatedresearch to generate emission and conversion fac-tors. Accessibility, to satellite imagery and capacitybuilding in all these areas remains necessary tomove the work forward.

Table 3.4 Annual Balance in Carbon Dioxide in Land

Use change and Forestry

Table 3.5 Swaziland’s 1994 final GHG budget (tonnes)


30

4.1 INTRODUCTION

The biosphere is characterised by a diversity ofecosystems, which have irregular and asymmetricdistribution patterns. Changes in climatic condi-tions and soil characteristics are responsible for theirregularity in the distribution patterns and floristiccomposition of ecosystems over time. There is aclose relationship between the distribution oforganisms, particularly plants and climatic condi-tions.

Climatic conditions generally vary with latitude andaltitude. Of particular importance are the spatialvariations in temperature conditions and quantity

of precipitation. Authors such as Woodward (1988)note that there is an abundance of evidence thatextremes in climate such as drought, low and hightemperatures and high winds have an influence onplant distribution. Such evidence is illustrated instudies of pollen records that suggest that the geo-graphical distribution and range of plants havebeen subject to change with changing climatic con-ditions over time.

4.2 FORESTRY

4.2.1Background

This study examines the extent to which managedforests and other ecosystems in Swaziland are vul-nerability to climate change and thereafter, feasibleadaptation options available to the country. Table4.1 presents a panaromic listing of possible impactsdue to climate change on forests.

Of particular concern are the variation in tempera-ture conditions and changes in the distribution andamount of rainfall. Other factors that are likely toinfluence the composition, structure and distribu-

tion of ecosystems include increasing carbon diox-ide levels, ultra-violet radiation, and outbreaks ofpests and diseases.

Apart from the climatic processes occurring withinthe natural environment, human activities also havean influence on the spatial distribution of patternsof ecosystems. Man's cultural practices such asdeforestation, grazing and fire serve as short-termeffects on the distribution and composition ofecosystems.

Vulnerability and Adaptation

Chapter

4

Table 4.1: Some possible climate change impacts on forests and other ecosystems

Source: Freenstra et al (1998)


31

Managed forests and woodlands are the mainsources of timber for construction, energy and pulphence contribute to the economy of many coun-tries in the world (Feenstra et al., 1998). Changesin the composition, structure and productivity ofecosystems will not only affect the sustainability oforganisms that are associated with the ecosystemsbut may also lead to effects on the national econo-my which they support. This is particularly true inthe case of managed forests.

Medicinal plants also occur within natural ecosys-tems. Therefore the impacts of climate change onecosystems will not only affect the socio-economicstatus of the nation but it will also have seriouseffects on health. Swaziland is highly diversified interms of relief, climate, land-use systems and asso-ciated ecosystems.

4.2.2 Land Tenure and Land-use

Swaziland has a dual system of land tenure insti-tuted when the country was still under Britishprotection. The system comprises of Swazi NationLand (SNL) and Title Deed Land (TDL). Overall,

SNL covers 74.2% (1 287 300ha), while the TDLmakes up 25.6% (444 100 ha) of the total area(Remmelzwaal and Vilakati, 1994).

Swazi Nation Land comprises of communal (948000ha) or non-communal (14 200ha) land underthe control of chiefs. Part of the land under SNL iscontrolled by Tibiyo (49 500ha), the Ministry ofAgriculture and Co-operatives (117 300ha), theSwaziland National Trust Commission (46 000ha)or leased (112 300ha).

TDL constitutes land owned by companies (estatesand commercial forests) and individuals in ruralareas (43 1600ha). Urban areas make up a smallportion (125 00ha) of TDL.

Generally, access to land is limited on SNL com-pared to TDL. Most settlements on SNL are lessthan 2 hectares in size, and only 2% of the total

holdings (63 583) are larger than 5 hectares(Central Statistical Office report, 1993).

Land-use practices and the exploitation of naturalresources in the country vary according to the landtenure system in each area. According to

Pine forest plantations of the pulp company at Bhunya in the highveld.


32

Remmelzwaal and Dlamini (1994), the main land usesin the country are small-scale subsistence crop agricul-ture, large-scale crop agriculture, extensive communalgrazing, ranching, plantation forestry and others.

The other land uses include hunting, parks andreserves, water reservoirs and areas that are usedfor settlements, industry and recreation. Table 4.2shows the areal coverage of the main land uses inthe country per physiographic region. Small-scalecrop agriculture (SA), extensive communal grazing(CH) and some extraction and collection (E) occuron SNL.

Land-uses that are associated with TDL includelarge-scale crop agriculture (LA), ranching (RH),

plantation forestry (F). Parks and reserves (P) areeither under SNTC or TDL. Although water reser-voirs (W) mostly serve TDL, they are found on SNL.

4.2.3Ecosystems

Swaziland has quite a high diversity of ecosystemsfor a small country. Generally, each physiographicregion is associated with specific ecosystems (veldtypes) with a number of units. I'ons and Kidner(1967) subdivided the veld types of Swaziland intoeleven (11) units on the basis of climate and com-position of the communities.

Table 4.2 Coverage of the main land uses in each physiograph-

ic region of Swaziland

Pulp mill at Bhunya with wood chip stockpile


33

or broadleaf savanna and has three vegetationunits.

Each of the six physiographic regions of the coun-try is associated with at least one ecological zone.These zones and the associated physiographicregions are shown on Table 4.3. Table 4.4 gives theareal extent of indigenous forests.

4.2.4 Climatic requirements for forests

The mountain sourveld is located within an area ofrainfall exceeding 1 250 mm a year. This zone isassociated with fairly light or severe (especially inthe valleys) winter frost. The highland sourveldoccurs in a slightly drier zone where the annualrainfall does not exceed 1 000 mm.

Within the moist tall grassveld rainfall is about 1000 mm a year or more. Winters in this zone areusually frost-free. The tall grassveld receives anannual average of about 900 mm. The dry tallgrassveld on the other hand receives about 750mm of rainfall a year. It is also characterised byslightly higher temperatures than the tall grassveld.The upper broad-leaved tree savanna is charac-terised by hot summer temperatures. The amountof rainfall in this zone is about 1 000 mm a year.Though cooler than the rest of the middleveld, theupland tall grassveld receives between 800 and900 mm of rainfall per year.

Associated with the lowveld regions are the lowerbroad-leaved tree savanna, the acacia savanna andthe dry acacia savanna. The occurrence of theseecological zones is partly influenced by climaticconditions and soil types.

The broad-leaved tree savanna found in the west-ern lowveld, occurs on granites soils. In the easternlowveld is the acacia savanna, which is associatedwith fertile soils derived from basalt. The dry acaciasavanna occurs along the southern Lubombofoothills where that annual rainfall varies between500 and 625 mm per year. On the Lebombo moun-tain is the mixed bush and savanna.

Managed (plantation) forests in Swaziland consistof soft and hardwoods such as pine, eucalyptusand wattle. Table 4.5 shows the area of land undermanaged and natural forests in some of the com-panies in Swaziland. Each of the species foundwithin plantation forests strives within specific tol-erance ranges in terms of climatic conditions.

Sweet and Khumalo (1994) recognise five vegeta-tion units in the highveld, which are associatedwith short sour grassland. Patches of montane andriparian forests occur along river valleys and inter-fluves in the highveld. The middleveld is charac-terised by tall grasses, hillside bush and broadleafsavanna. Five vegetation units are recognised in thelowveld consisting of broadleaf, microphyllous oracacia savanna. Lubombo is characterised by bush

Table 4.3: Physiographic regions and Ecological Zones of Swaziland.

Table 4.4: Areal extent of forests in Swazland

Source: Hesse et al. (1997)


34

Most plantations are found in the highveld regionof Swaziland with a few wattle forests found in theupper middleveld.

Managed forests in the country consist of eucalyp-tus trees (Eucalyptus saligna and E. grandis), Pinetrees (Pinus elliottii,, P. patula and P. sylvestris) andwattle (Acacia mernsii).

Each of the species has a specific tolerance to cli-matic conditions. The mean annual temperatureand rainfall requirements for some of the speciesare shown on Table 4.6.

Changes in these climatic conditions may alsocause an increase in the susceptibility of thesespecies to pests and disease outbreaks.

Acacia mernsii, for example, is susceptible to bagworm and mirid attacks whose incidences increasewhen the mean annual temperature is above 1200mm.

4.2.5Methodology

Assessment of the vulnerability of the country’sforests and ecosystems was conducted on the basisof three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) recom-mended for the country; GFDL, CCCEQ and UKTR.Results presented in this report are based on these

models and on the country’s observed climatologi-cal data supplied by the meteorological service, andserving as inputs to the GCMs.

4.2.5.1 Types of Ecosystems

The current and projected ecosystem types inSwaziland were assessed using the Holdridge LifeZone Classification Model. Using data on annualbiotemperature and precipitation to classify ecosys-tems, the model gives the potential land cover foreach study site (Hartshort, 1992).

The potential land cover is assessed on the basis ofthe various life zones shown on the life zone chartand on the basis of both latitudinal and altitudinaldifferences. The assessment was conducted for thecurrent (baseline) situation and the GCM scenarioprojections.

4.2.5.2 Tree growth

In assessing the vulnerability of tree species to cli-mate change, the Forest GAP model was used. Thismodel simulates the distribution of plant popula-tions as well as the growth and mortality of indi-vidual species. The performance centres on envi-ronmental conditions and interactions between thespecies found on the plot. The growth of individualplant species is indicated by variations in the diam-

Table 4.5: Area under Forestry in various companies in Swaziland.

Table 4.6: Mean annual temperature and rainfall requirements for some forest species.


35

eters and changes in biomass production and basalarea.

4.2.5.3 Forest Species Assessed

This model was run using two exotic species andfour indigenous species. The exotic species used inthe assessment were Pinus and Eucalyptus. Theindigenous trees were Combretum sps, Syzygiumcordatum, Sclerocarya birrea and Pterocarpusangolensis. Choice of the species used in theassessment was based on the occurrence, commer-cial value and social value of each of the treespecies.

In terms of occurrence, most of the selectedindigenous trees are found in all the physiographicregions. The only exception is Syzygium cordatum,which occurs mainly in the highveld and lubomboregions. The exotics are also generally confined tothe highveld and middlevled regions of the country.

(i) Exotic Trees

Forest plantations are an important source of rev-enue in the country. Pinus and Eucalyptus cover alarge area of the plantations. For example, Mondiforest had about 17 345 ha and 3 745 ha underpine and eucalyptus respectively. The tree speciesare grown for timber and pulpwood for paper andnon- paper products.

(ii) Indigenous Trees

Combretum spp are used as timber and fuelwood.According to Mtetwa and Vilakati (1992),Combretum species are amongst the trees whosewood has high calorific value.

Some species of the genus also have cultural valuein that they are used during Incwala (Dlamini,1981). As such these species are amongst the pro-tected in the country. Syzygium produces ediblefruits, which are sold by members of communitieswhere the species occurs.

The bark is used in the treatment of diarrhoea. Thisspecies plays an important role in hydrologicalprocesses and is also used as timber. Sclerocaryabirrea bears fruits that are used by rural communi-ties to brew a highly potent drink rich in calcium.

The nuts are used both as relish and as an impor-tant food supplement to rural communities whilstthe bark is used for medicinal purposes (Dlamini,

1982). Pterocarpus angolensis on the other hand isan important source of timber and carving materi-al.

Any negative impact of climate change on thesetree species would have not only an effect on thenatural environmental processes of their habitat,but also an impact on the income generation andother cultural and social activities that they support.

4.2.5.4 Representative study sites

The vulnerability assessment of the selected specieswas based on climatic data from four representativesites of the main physiographic regions. In theassessment of exotics, climatic data from Bulembuwas used. This study site represents the highveldwhere most exotics are grown. For the vulnerabilityassessment of indigenous trees, the representativesites are Mpisi (middleveld), Big Bend (Lowveld) andSiteki (Lubombo).

Table 4.7: Current Vegetation zones in globally

selected grids within Swaziland


36

4.2.6 Results and outputs.

4.2.6.1 Holdrigde.

All the model runs suggest that Swaziland is cur-rently predominantly characterised by two types ofecosystems. These are the Subtropical moist forestand the Subtropical dry forest. The south easterncorner of the country is also observed to support atropical very dry forest (Table 4.7 and Figure4.1).The results provide an indication of the cur-rent potential ecosystem types in the country.

There is a relationship between the current poten-tial ecosystem types and the existing ecologicalzones in the country. Theories on the evolution ofgrasslands suggest that areas within the highveld

and upper middleveld regions are ideally suited forgrowth of sub-tropical forests.

Considering that the model was run using theglobal data that uses grids, an attempt was madeto correlate the results with specific areas in thecountry. This was achieved by running the modelusing local weater data from nine sites. Almost sim-ilar results to the global data were obtained fromthe country specific data (Table 4.8). The onlyexceptions are Mbabane and Lavumisa, which themodel suggests, are capable of supporting warm

temperate moist forest and a Tropical very dry for-est forest respectively.

With Mbabane characterised by summer rainfalland severe winters, the type of temperate forestsuggested by the model is the deciduous.

(Chapman and Reiss, 1999). As such, areas in thehighveld and upper Middleveld regions ofSwaziland (Bulembu and Mbabane) have a poten-tial to support a sub-tropical moist forest. The Lowermiddleveld, Lowveld and Lubombo regions have apotential to support a sub-tropical dry forest.

Table 4.8: Current forest ecosystems associated within specificsites in Swaziland

Figure 4.1: Currrent ecological zones in the country

Figure 4.2: Potential future scenario of ecological zones.


37

Table 4.9: Projected changes in ecosystems in Swaziland for each of the GCMs

Model projections suggest changes in forestecosystems in Big Bend, Mananga and Mbabane(Figure 4.1). All the model scenarios suggest anecosystem in Mbabane changing from the currentwarm temperate moist forest to a Subtropical moistforest forest.

There are some variations in the case of Big Bendand Mananga. Big Bend is likely to be covered by asubtropical thorn woodland (CCCEQ) or a Tropicalvery dry forest forest (GFDL) whilst Mananga is like-ly to have a Tropical very dry forest forest (CCCEQ-high) or subtropical desert scrub (GFDL- low). Table4.9 and Figure 4.2 present future scenarios of for-est cover in the country.

These possible changes are due to the estimatedslight decrease in precipitation and increase in tem-perature in the country. This suggests a possiblechange not only in species composition but also inthe geographical areas that they support.

Regarding species composition, the results implythat xerophytes such as the Acacia species are like-ly to flourish in the country with changing climate.This will have implications on the availability ofmedicinal plants. Secondly, the conversion ofecosystems is likely to have implications on theoverall structure of and nutrient cycles within theecosystem. Such would therefore require changesin lifestyles and resource use in the affected areas.

4.2.6.2 Pine biomas distribution and growth

A general slight increase in biomass production inpine trees is projected with respect to the GCMmodels compared to the current climatic scenario.With the current climate scenario, biomass produc-tion in pine trees is estimated at an average of22.55/ha/yr. The GCMs used in the study howevergive lower average estimates of biomass atBulembu. Figure 4.3 shows the projected biomassproduction in pine trees at Bulembu.

Figure 4.3: Projected Eucalyptus tree Biomass Production at Bulembu


38


4.2.6.3 Eucalyptus biomas distribution and growth

The assessment of biomass production in eucalyp-tus indicates a change in climate change willincrease the biomass. On the basis of the currentclimate scenario, the average annual biomass pro-duction in Eucalyptus is projected at 159.67 t/ha/yrat Bulembu. The GCMs used in the study give bio-mass values of over 200 at Bulembu as indicated onFigure 4.3. In summary, both the biomass and basal

area of exotic trees in plantations are projected toincrease under climate change compared to thecurrent climate scenario

4.2.6.4 Stem size

For all the exotic species used in the study it is pro-jected that the stem size will be slightly lower underclimate change compared to the present climatescenario. As expected, there will be a large numberof individuals with a diameter that ranges between0 and 10 cm followed by those with a diameter of10 - 20 cm. Very few individuals with the largerdiameter classes are expected in 2075.

4.2.6.5 Distribution and Growth of Indigenoustrees

a)Biomass

The Global Change models indicate variations in bio-mass productivity in the four indigenous speciesassessed in the study. Also noted are the differences inthe performance of the species in the different regions

that are represented by the selected study areas.

In the case of Combretum the projections indicatethe highest biomass at Mpisi followed by Manangawhere the difference between the business as usualscenario and the scenario under climate change ishighest. Projected biomass quantity for Sclerocaryaand Syzygium are highest at Mananga. Generalindications from the projections are thatPterocarpus and Combretum will be the most neg-atively affected of all four species. This is particular-ly true at Siteki than Mpisi and Mananga.

The general reduction in biomass production in thefour species could be attributed to the generalincrease in temperature, which could also cause anincrease in potential evapotranspiration. Althoughclimate change is likely to increase the amount ofrainfall recieved, available water for plant growthwill be low. Overall, Combretum seems to have thelowest biomass of all the four species assessed.

Examining the performance of each species, it isobserved that Sclerocarya is likely to dominate overthe other three species in all the regions. Theeffects of climate change on Syzygium are also notas pronounced whilst Combretum and Pterocarpusindicate a general decline in biomass productionunder both the business as usual and climaticchange scenarios. This observation highlights theneed for sustainable use and protection of thespecies whose future is uncertain.

Overall biomass production in indigenous forests isprojected to decline under climate change with thehighest decline at Mpisi and the lowest at Siteki.The only exception is the UKTR model which sug-gests an increase in biomass under climate change.The same applies with regard to the basal area ofindigenous trees in the three study areas.

b) Stem size

The Global Climatic Models are projecting a gener-al decline is stem sizes for Syzygium and Sclerocaryaat Siteki compared to the current climatic scenario.This is particularly true for the 10 - 20 cm diameterclass. At Mpisi, the GCMs are projecting a slightincrease in the stem sizes of Syzygium andPterocarpus.. At Mananga, there is no major differ-ence between the current climatic scenario and thepredictions of the GCMs in the number ofCombretum and Sclerocarya trees in almost all thediameter classes, particularly in the classes 0 to 10cm and 10 - 20 cm. Regarding Combretum, the pat-

Figure 4.4: Projected Size class distribution of eucalyptusat Bulembu in 2075

39

tern is not quite clear, especially when comparingthe data from the three study areas.

Based on the results on indigenous trees, it appearsthat the existence of Syzygium and Sclerocaryatrees is likely to be compromised by climatechange, except at Mpisi or in the middleveldregion. On the other hand Sclerocarya andSyzygium will be the least affected, particularly inthe Lubombo region.

4.2.7Adaptation

Apart from the effects of climate, managed forestsand other ecosystems in the country are threatenedby agricultural activities. Of major concern aresmall-scale (SNL) and large scale crop (TDL), exten-sive communal grazing (SNL), ranching (TDL) andsome extraction and collection on SNL.

The expansion of settlements is another threat toecosystems in the country. This is particularly truefor the indigenous forests in the lowveld andlubombo regions and other ecosystems such aswetlands in the middleveld and highveld regions.Indigenous forests and wattle plantations are usedas sources of firewood and construction timberboth in the rural and urban areas. As such defor-estation is another serious threat in the country.

Frequent, uncontrolled fires are also major threatsto the maintenance of managed forests and otherecosystems in the country. In a study of indigenousknowledge practices in the country (Fakudze,1998) forty five percent (45%) of the respondentsattested to the frequent use of fire due to the opin-ion that fire has a positive impact on land in that itencourages regeneration of grass, increases in soilfertility and destroys pests such as ticks and mice.

Increased frequency of fires will contribute to apaucity of fire prone species such as grasses andtrees whilst encouraging the growth of fire tolerantspecies. Policy guidance, amongst other controls, isa necessary tool to enable adequate preventativeand adaptive actions that are key to sustaining thecountry’s forest resource, especially in the light ofan impending climate change.

Considering the paucity of information on the keyparameters of indigenous trees in the country,there is need for research on these parameters inthe country. This will enhance understanding of theimpacts of climate change on the ecosystems in thecountry. Changes in plant distribution also need to

be monitored on a periodic basis, especially in theprotected areas where anthropogenic impacts arecontrolled.


40

4.3 HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

4.3.1Introduction

Water Resources constitute a major sector for cli-mate change impact assessment for Swaziland dueto the sector's importance in supporting the coun-try’s socio-economic development.

The objective of this study is to assess the extentand magnitude of impacts due to climate changeon the country's water resources with a view toidentifying viable measures for adaptation in orderto minimize the anticipated impacts.

The study examines the performance of surfacewater, ground water and water quality under cli-mate change conditions.

4.3.2Baseline Scenario

4.3.2.1Surface Water

Komati and Mbuluzi are the major basins that con-tribute to sugar cane irrigation The third basin ofeconomic significance is the Usutu, which also sup-ports sugar cane irrigation and hydro power gener-ation. The two southern basins (Pongola andLubombo) are smaller and relatively underutilised.All the rivers, with the exception of the Komati,Usutu and Lomati basins originate withinSwaziland. Figure 4.5 shows the drainage basins inSwaziland.

Table 4.10 illustrates the country’s major drainagebasins and their capacities. All the rivers, save theLubombo flow from the west to the east and hencetraverse the four physiological regions of the coun-try. The catchment areas for the Usutu, Lomati andKomati basins include portions of the basins in theRepublic of South Africa.

The inflows and outflows show that the runoffgenerated within Swazilnd is about 2706 millionm3 of water per annum while the mean annual pre-cipitation (MAP) is 850 mm which is equivalent to14800 million m3 of water per annum. This meansonly 18% of the rain water is tranformed to runoffwhilst the remainder could be lost through evapo-ration and to aquifer recharge.

4.3.2.2 Ground-Water

The country's ground water is an importantresource that is of use especially in communitieswith very low water availability. There is an increasein demand and use of the ground water resourceby communities in the rural and peri-urban areasparticularly in the dry periods. Groundwater is alsoa source of stream flow especially during the drywinter months.

It is estimated that groundwater recharge rangesbetween 5 to 20 % of the average rainfall inSwaziland. It is also estimated that the groundwater resource potential is equivalent to a sus-tained flow of about 21 m3/s.

The potential for groundwater resource is highestin the Highveld and Middleveld regions. Of thispotential, only 6% of the ground water has been

Figure 4.5: Swaziland’s Major Drainage Basins.

Table 4.10: Major drainage basins of Swaziland and their corre-

sponding hydrologic variables


41

tapped through existing boreholes which numberabout 1500. Average yield from the boreholes isabout 1.4m/s, with others giving rates as high as 20l/s. Most of the springs are concentrated in theHighveld and Middleveld regions.

4.3.3Water Resources Development

Water resources development in the country hasbeen enhanced by the construction of dams. Theseven main dams in the country have a total capac-ity in excess of 230 million cubic metres (MCM).The Mnjoli dam is the largest man made lake inSwaziland with a capacity of 135MCM. The ministry ofAgriculture and Co-operatives isinvolved in small dams construc-tion country wide to curb watershortages during dry periods.

To-date, about 500 small damshave been constructed impound-ing a total of about 130 MCM(Murdoch, 1997). The Magugadam is currently under construc-tion. Water from the dams ismainly to be used for power gen-eration and irrigation. The majordams in the country are listed ontable 4.11.

4.3.4 Current Water Demand

The demands for water in Swaziland are mainly fordomestic, industrial and agricultural activities.Domestic and industrial water demand does notvary much with season. Since most of irrigatedagriculture is practiced in the Lowveld where rain-fall is generally low it follows that demands arehigh in this area particularly during the wintermonths. Table 4.12 illustrates summarised sectoralwater demand.

Usutu river flowing through the highveld

Table 4.11: Major dams and their storage capacities in the country


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4.3.5 Irrigation Water Demand

The crops that are grown under irrigation are sugarcane, citrus fruits, pineapples, vegetables and corn.It has been established that about 70 000 ha ofland is under irrigation in the country. Most of theirrigation activities are located in the Lomati catch-ment (Ngonini Estates), the Lowveld part of theKomati river (sugar cane), the Lowveld part of theMbuluzi river (Simunye, Mhlume, Tambankulusugar estates), Middleveld and Lowveld part of theUsutu river (Ubombo Sugar, Big Bend, Malkerns)and the lower part of the Ngwavuma river.

It is estimated that the irrigation water demand isabout 1734x106 m3/year compared to amount of4270x106 m3 of water leaving Swaziland perannum. After some allowance for use by SouthAfrica and Mozambique it is estimated that some2670x106 m3/year could still be retained in storagefacilities. This could mean that there is enoughwater to meet current and future irrigation waterdemand. However, it should be noted that the flowin most rivers is low during the winter months and

it is during these months that water is criticallyrequired to sustain crop growth.

The need to expand the irrigation acreage is alsothere as crop production expands. However, due towater scarcity especially in the Mbuluzi catchment,the demand cannot be met. As a result some com-panies like Simunye sugar company are changingtheir irrigation water application method from sprin-kler to sub-surface irrigation. It is anticipated thatthis will increase water use efficiency and the savedwater could then be used for irrigating new areas ,orbe made available for downstream users as well asfor the sustainability of the river environment.

The current Maguga dam construction cameabout as a result of water scarcity in the Komatiriver. It is anticipated that the dam will stabilizethe flow regime down stream the reservoir.Various other water development activities arealso proposed for the Usutu river.

Dam construction site over the Komati River (Maguga Dam)


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4.3.6 Industrial And Domestic Water Demand

Urbanization and industrial growth is rapidly takingplace in Swaziland with major industrial activities inMatsapha and Mbabane. Population growth is creat-ing an increase in domestic and industrial waterdemand. Migration of rural population to urban cen-ters is also putting pressure on the water demand. Itshould however be noted that most of the urbancentres are served with clean portable water in con-trast to only 40% of the rural population.

Rainfall, and hence the water resource, is naturallyunevenly distributed in both time and space andthis is the case with Swaziland. While the Highveldand Middleveld including Lubombo regions enjoyenough water especially during the rainy seasonthe Lowveld faces water scarcity related problems.This situation calls for proper water resources plan-ning in future in order to adequately meetdemands of all the regions.

4.3.7Water Quality

Industrial activities in major cities and in sugar caneestates are a major concern as far as water pollu-tion in the country is concerned. Leachate fromimproperly managed solid waste disposal sites inurban and industrial sites do find its way into natu-ral water courses.

Accidental spillages of toxic substances like phenolliquors at times do occur. This pollution threatensbiodiversity and is also a health hazard to humanbeings downstream. Due to intensive agriculturalactivities the sediment yield is affected in the catch-ments resulting in poor water quality.

Water pollution monitoring is being conducted bythe water resources branch at all major rivers andat all industrial and municipal effluents. It has beenestablished that the agro-industrial and industrial

effluents from some industries in Matsapha areahave shown an increase in COD and phenol. Cross-border effluent pollution from the Republic ofSouth Africa has on occasions been witnessed,especially on the Ndlotane river.

The lowest concentration of dissolved solids isfound in the rivers of the Highveld and the concen-tration increases to about 150mg/l in the Lowveld.

Best quality water is found in the basementaquifers of the highveld while the worst is in theLowveld. This is because of the groundwater stag-nant conditions in the Lowveld while there isgroundwater movement in the Highveld andMiddleveld due to gradients resulting from themountainous topography towards discharge pointsby springs.

On the average groundwater quality meets theWHO recommended drinking water guidelines.However, there are isolated areas with high con-centrations of fluorides and nitrates. Groundwaterwith high concentration of salts are found in theLowveld where evapotranspiration rates are highand the rate of ground water recharge is low dueto low rainfall in this region. Fluoride concentrationranges from 0.1 mg/l to 18.4 mg/l and nitrate con-centrations are up to 45 mg/l.

4.3.8Usutu Drainage Basin

This study focuses on assessing climate changeimpacts on the Great Usutu river. This basin is ofgreat socio-economic importance to the countrybecause about three quarters of the population ofSwaziland living within and being supportedthrough it.

Apart from this fact this catchment was selectedfor the impact assessment because it is fairly rep-resentative of a large part of the country. The cur-rent water demand in the catchment is estimatedto be 266400 m3 per day which is equivalent to0.0222 mm/day.

4.3.8.1 Data Requirement

The assessment of the impact of climate change inwater resources requires the utilisation of a variousdata types. The required input data are hydrological(streamflow, sediment load discharge etc.) andmeteorological (precipitation, air temperature,windspeed, evaporation, humidity, air pressure,solar radiation, sunshine hours etc.)

Table 4.12: Current Sectoral Water Demand in Swaziland


44

Stream flow data are available for a period morethan 30 years in many of the gauging stations. Thedata series is not continuous throughout the baseperiod due to data gaps arising from siltation of thestilling well and as a result of destruction in 1984by tropical cyclone domonia. Likewise gaps alsoexist in the Meteorological data series. TheHydrological and Meteorological data wereobtained from the Water Resources Branch and theDepartment of Meteorological Services respectively.

The streamflow gauging station at Siphofaneni (GS6) was selected as the catchment outlet for theUsutu river basin. Data from this station covers theperiod 1958 to 1982 with two years discontinuityafter cyclone domonia. The other data (precipita-tion and potential evapotranspiration) were madeto cover the same period.

The rainfall information that was used in this proj-ect was from the following stations: Siphofaneni,Mankayane, Malkerns and Mbabane. A representa-tive station for the Usutu catchment was developedusing the arithmetic mean method.

Potential Evapotranspiration Data from Malkernsweather station was used as a representative sta-tion for the Usutu catchment. Data, gaps werepatched using the method of interpolation. Aregression analysis between potential evapotranspi-ration and average temperature was developed(1964 to 1982). The regression equation that wasobtained was used to determine the potentialevapotraspiration values for the period from 1963to 1969. This was done in order to increase thedata record length ( 1963 to 1982 ). Potentialevapotranspiration values could not be extended to1958 due missing average temperatures.

4.3.9 Methodology

The greenhouse gases effect is expected to causeglobal warming which in turn will cause changes inaverage annual precipitation. Generally it is expect-ed that floods now considered rare would occurmore frequently in certain regions while droughtrelated and competing water use issues will inten-sify in other regions (Miller, 1989; Schaake, 1989).

General circulation models provide physically basedpredictions of the way climate might change as aresult of increasing concentrations of atmosphericcarbon dioxide and other trace gasses. The GCM'sare mathematical representatives of the earth's cli-mate system, and they simulate atmospheric

processes at a field of grid points that cover the sur-face of the earth. The outputs of these models are:temperatures and precipitation values.

4.3.9.1 Hydrologic Models

A model is a conceptualization of a real systemthat retains the essence of that system for a partic-ular purpose. Every model is an attempt to capturethe essence of the complex nature in hydrologicmodelling in a manageable way but it is importantto recognise that this conceptualization alsoinvolves a considerable degree of simplification.Anderson and Burt (1990) contend that, “all mod-els seek to simplify the complexity of the realaspects of a system at the expense of incidentaldetail”

A model must remain simple enough to understandand use , but complex enough to be representativeof the system being studied. There are many hydro-logic models in the literature (Singh, 1995;Anderson and Burt, 1990; Schulze, 1984; Hughesand Sami, 1994; Pitman, 1973).

For the purpose of evaluating the impact of climatechange on water resources, the models that are inuse usually operate in simulation mode. A river-basin-monthly water balance model is recommend-ed as the primary approach for assessing climatechange impacts on river runoff (IPCC, 1996).

The CLIRUN set of models is the standard waterbalance tool selected for Country StudiesProgramme (IPCC, 1996). The WATBALL modeldeveloped by Yates (1994) is one of the CLIRUNsets of models and was used in this study.

4.3.9.2 Watball Model

WatBall is a lumped conceptual integrated rainfallrunoff model. It has two major components whichare: (i) A water balance which describes the watermovement into and out of a basin (ii) The compu-tation of potential evapotranspiration (however,potential evapotranspiration can be input directly).

The water balance is written as a differential equa-tion involving input and output, where storage islumped as a single conceptualised bucket with thecomponents of discharge and infiltration beingdependent on the relative storage which isexpressed as follows:


45

Smax [dz(t)/dt] = Pe(t) - Rs(z,Pe,t) - Rg(z,t) -Rb - Ev(z,PET,t)

Where, Smax is maximum water holding capacity(mm); Pe is effective rainfall (mm/day); Rs is surfacerunoff described in terms of storage, precipitationover time; Rg is the ground water flow (mm/day); Rbis baseflow (mm/day); Ev is actual evaporationwhich is a function of potential evapotranspiration(PET), relative catchment storage (z) and time (t indays).

The model contains five parameters which are:direct runoff; surface runoff; subsurface runoff,maximum catchment water holding capacity andbase flows.

WatBall accounts for changes in the soil moistureby taking into account precipitation, runoff, actualevapotranspiration while using potential evapo-transpiration to derive the extraction of water fromthe soil strata. It has been established that, any esti-mate of climate change impacts on water resourcesdepends on the ability of the model to relatechanges in actual evapotranspiration to predictchanges in the runoff in the stream.

WatBall has been found appropriate for the esti-mates of the impact of climate change on waterresources because it meets the above criteria.Secondly it requires less input parameters com-pared to other hydrologic models.

4.3.9.3 Application of Watball Model to the UsutuCatchment

The WatBall model has been applied to the Usuturiver for the evaluation of the effect of climatechange on the water resources in the basin. Thereare two stages in the application of a rainfall runoffmodel, that is calibration and verification.

During the calibration stage the model parametersare adjusted by trial and error process till the modelclosely reproduces the observed stream flow. Tenyears of monthly flow data was used during thecalibration stage (January 1963 to December1972).


46

Model verification on the Usutu drainage basin was

performed using monthly stream flow data for theyears from January 1973 to December 1982. Otherinput variables such as rainfall and potential evapotran-spiration also covered the same period. Figures 4.6 and4.7 show the hydrographs of simulated and observedstream flow for calibration and validation respectively.

The WatBall model was also calibrated for thewettest years, driest years and average years. Thatis, average daily monthly values were used in thisexercise. Table 4.13 shows the optimal modelparameters for wet years, dry years and the aver-age or normal year.

The above model parameters for the wet years

(1969, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1976 and 1978), dryyears (1964, 1965, 1968, 1970 and 1982) and theaverage year were used to simulate the flow giventhe results of the GCM models (that is predictedprecipitation, temperature and thus potentialevapo-transpiration).

The developed regression equation between tem-perature and potential evapo-transpiration wasused to predict the potential evapo-tanspiration foryear 2075 given the predicted temperatures byGCM models.

Figure 4.7: Simulated and observed stream-flow at GS6 during Validation (1973 to 1982)

Figure 4.6: Simulated and observed stream flow at GS6 during calibration (1963-1972)


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4.3.10 Results of the effect of climatechange on water resources

The response of the Usutu river to climate change hasbeen evaluated using GCM models which are; theGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), theUnited Kingdom Transient Resalient (UKTR), and theCanadian Climate Change Equilibrium (CCC-EQ).

The selected models were used to simulate thetemperatures for Swaziland. All the models wellsimulated the observed temperature values. Theytherefore, have been found the ideal choice forsimulating future climate scenarios for the country.

Results of these GCM models (temperature, rainfallchanges and potential evapotranspiration for year2075) were used as input to the calibrated WatBallmodel to forecast stream flow for Usutu for the wetyears, dry years and the average years forthe year 2075without taking into consideration water abstractions.

The results of the runoff simulations are shown inFigures 4.8, 4.9 and 4.10 for dry , normal and wetyears respectively. It can be seen from Figure 4.8that the forecasted flows with inputs derived fromthe GCMs for the months of October to Decemberare higher than the current observed flows. Thereafter all the forecasted flows are lower than the cur-rent observed stream flows for the rest of themonths.

The three simulation results show that the forecast-ed flows are higher during the early summermonths (October to January) and lower during thelate summer and winter months (February toSeptember). This implies that the country couldexperience high flows during the early summermonths and low flows thereafter. This is due to thefact that the expected climate change will bringhigh temperatures and therefore, high evapotran-spiration and thus low flows during the late sum-mer and winter months.

Figure 4.8: Simulated and observed stream flow for Usutu river (Dry years)


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Figure 4.9: Simulated and observed stream flow for Usutu river (Normal years)

Figure 4.10: Simulated and observed stream flow for Usutu river (Wet years)


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Figure 4.11 shows the % annual runoff change forall the GCMs under dry, normal and wet scenariosfor all of the climate change scenarios (Low,Medium and High). The interpretation is that thehigh annual runoff change (Reduction) occurs dur-ing the dry scenario under almost all the climatechange scenarios (Low, Medium and High) fol-

lowed by the normal and the wet scenario.

Figure 4.12 shows the average of GCMs % annualrunoff change for dry, normal and wet scenario for allthe climate change scenarios (Low, Medium and High).

The projection therefore, shows a maximum reduc-tion in annual runoff of 12.6% in the Usutu riverunder climate change conditions which is equivalentto 133.6 million cubic meters (11.35 mm per year).

When this maximum % annual runoff reduction isapplied to all the catchments in the country, thepredicted annual runoff reduction becomes 350million cubic meters which is approximately the sizeof Maguga reservoir.

4.3.11 Interpretation of Results

The models’ stream flow future projections point tohighs and lows during the summer and winter

months respectively under climate change condi-tions. Currently the country is experiencing flood-ing related problems during summer months ofwettest years and drought related problems duringyears with low flows. Therefore, flooding anddrought related problems are likely to prevail dur-ing the summer and winter months respectively.

The combined effect of high temperatures and lowrunoff especially during the winter months couldadversely affect groundwater recharge particularlyin the Lowveld. Therefore, the present salinity ofgroundwater could be worsened due to thereduced groundwater recharge and high evapora-tion rate. The low flows during the winter monthshave the potential to affect negatively the riverineecological system.

Figure 4.12: Average GCMs annual runoff change for Usutu river (%)

Figure 4.11: Average Annual runoff change for Usutu river under different scenarios (%)


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Simulation results have shown a possible waterreduction of 12.6% which is equivalent to 133.6million cubic meters. Therefore, if nothing isplanned for the development and management ofthe water resource, water shortage related prob-lems could prevail by year 2075.

The economy of the country is based on agricultur-al activities (agro-based economy). The enumeratedchanges could negatively impact on rain fed andirrigated agriculture, hydropower generation, live-stock and other social economic water uses. Thewater shortage for domestic use will cause poorsanitation conditions and thus the outbreak of dis-eases. The country therefore could be forced toimport food and medicine. The drought conditionswill also impact negatively on the biodiversity of thecountry.

4.3.12 Adaptation options

The flow regime of any river is greatly influenced byhuman activities particularly land use. Overgrazingwhich leads to land degradation is emerging as aproblem in the country. Poor farming practices alsolead to land degradation.

The time horizon of the change that might occur(increased or reduced precipitation) is similar to thetime required for planning, approval, funding, con-struction and economic life of water resource proj-ects (dams, irrigation canals, drainage systems etc,(Schaake, 1989)). Therefore, mitigation strategiesshould make sense regardless of the direction andmagnitude of change.

It has been established that Swaziland could experi-ence a reduction in stream flows under all scenarios(wet, dry and average year) given climate change.Therefore, in view this the vision for water resourcesplanning, development, operation and manage-ment demands the development of policies andstrategies that will promote for the growth of waterin the future. Adaptation strategies should bedirected at developing robust water resource sys-tems as well as techniques to incorporate climatechange uncertainties into the long-term planning.

A reduction in annual runoff of the order of 134million cubic meters has been established in thisstudy for the Usutu catchments and 350 millioncubic meters for the whole country. Inter-basinwater transfers in the country is not a viable optiondue to over commitment of the available water

resource within each basin.

4.3.12.1 Water Conservation

It has been established that there could be a reduc-tion in runoff under climate change conditions.Therefore, water use sectors will have to adapt tothe meagre resource that will be available. It hasbeen assumed here that there will be no significantwater savings from industrial and domestic wateruse, currently at 4% of the total water demand. Themajor consumer of water in the country is irrigationand at 96%. It is expected that large savings in waterwill come from efficient use of irrigation water.

Currently the land that is under irrigation in theUsutu catchment is estimated at 15000 hectares.The acreage that is under furrow, centre pivot anddrip system presently is assumed to average to sprin-kler system. The water demand for sugar cane undersprinkler irrigation system is 1400mm per year perhectare.

With technological advancement there might bemore efficient irrigation systems in the future. A20% water saving could be realised by switchingfrom sprinkler to drip irrigation system. This watersaving translates to 280mm per hectare per year.Water that will be conserved in the Usutu catchmentby the use of drip irrigation system thereforeamounts to 42 million m3 per year. This will leave awater deficit of 92 million m3 per year. This waterdeficit will have to be provided for by the construc-tion of a water storage facilities and other relatedmeans.

4.3.12.2 Dam Construction Cost Estimates

The cost estimates for construction of a dam inUsutu catchment in order to meet water demanddue to anticipated climatic changes has been derivedfrom the cost estimates for the construction ofMaguga dam. The cost for the construction of theMaguga dam is currently at 1.2 billion Emalangeni(US $ 150 million). The Maguga dam will impound330 million m3 of water. The cost of a Dam in theUsutu catchment that will impound 90million m3

could therefore cost 327 million Emalangeni ($ 40million) today.


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Other water resources adaptation options that arepossible for Swaziland in order to deal with theeffects of expected climatic changes are as follows:

4.3.12.3 Modification of the existing infrastructure

i. Supply adaptation (installing canal linings,changing location of water intakes, usinggrating separate reservoirs into a singlesystem,using artificial recharge to reduceevaporation)

ii Construction of new infrastructure (reser-voirs, hydroplants, delivery systems.

iii Alternative management of existing watersupply systems (change operating rules, use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply, change priority of releases, physically integrate reservoir operation system, co-ordinate supply/demand)

4.3.12.4 Demand adaptation

i. Conservation and improved efficiency

ii. Domestic (low-flow toilets, low-flow show-ers, re-use of cooking water, more efficientappliance use leak repair, commercial carwashing where recycling takes place, rain-water collection for non-potable uses)

iii. Agricultural (night time irrigation, liningcanals, closed conduits, improvements inmeasurements to find losses and applywater efficiently, drainage re-use, use ofwastewater effluent, better control andmanagement of supply network.

iv. Industrial (re-use of acceptable water qual-ity, recycling)

4.3.12.5 Technological change

i. Domestic (water efficient toilets , waterefficient appliances, landscape changes,dual supply systems, recycled water fornon-potable uses)

ii. Agricultural (low water use crops, highvalue per water use crops, drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision applicationirrigation systems, salt tolerant crops thatcan use drain water, drainage water mixingstations)

iii. Industrial (dry cleaning technologies,closed cycle and/or air cooling, plantdesign with reuse and recycling of waterimbedded, shift the type of products man-ufactured)

iv. Energy (additional reservoirs andhydropower stations, low head run of riverhydropower, more efficient hydropowerturbines)

v. Market/price-driven transfers to otheractivities

vi. Using water price to shift water usebetween sectors

4.3.12.6 Land Use Management

Land use is the major factor that affects the runoffin a stream. Therefore, there is a need for theimplementation of good land use practices in thecountry in order to conserve the water resource.This will require the change of attitudes of thepeople in animal herding and land husbandryprinciples and strategies. This is very important forthe conservation of the water resource for thepresent and future generations.

4.3.12.2.7 Promoting Regional Partnership

Almost all rivers in Swaziland are internationalrivers. Therefore, there is the need to establishpartnership in the utilisation of internationalwaters through:

The implementation of the protocol on SharedWatercourse Systems in the SADC Region andother bilateral agreements for the benefit of thecountry through the implementation of jointwater resource project between Swaziland SouthAfrica and Mozambique.

Encouraging and stimulating partnership withinthe context of SADC in conformity with the inter-national Law of the Non-Navigational uses ofInternational Watercourses.


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4.3.13 Conclusions

The impact of climate change on waterresources in the Usutu river basin has been eval-uated using WatBall model. Model parameterswere determined during the calibration stageusing two sets of 10 years of daily time seriesdata (rainfall, stream flow and potential evapo-transpiration).

The results of three GCM models were used in sim-ulating the stream flow of the Usutu catchment inyear 2075 for the wet, dry and average year for thenatural conditions. All the GCM models are simulat-ing high and low stream flows during summer andwinter months respectively. Simulation results in thisstudy are in agreement with the results of otherstudies that have been conducted in the SouthernAfrican region (Schulze and Perks, 2000).

Results of the study suggest that the country couldexperience high and low flows during summer andwinter months respectively under climate changeconditions. The overall water deficit under climatechange conditions has been estimated to be134million m3 per year. Water saving through effi-cient irrigation water application systems has beenestimated to be 47million m3 per year. A water stor-age facility is therefore, needed to provide 87millionm3, the cost estimate of which has been estimated.


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4.4 AGRICULTURE

4.4.1Introduction

The agriculture sector plays a very important role innational development in Swaziland, and is one ofthe leading sectors contributiing to the GDP. Theimportant crops grown in Swazi Nation Land (SNL)are maize and cotton, while in Title Deed Land(TDL) they are sugarcane, cotton and citrus. Cropsgrown in TDL are mainly for export, while those inSNL are mainly for subsistence purposes, with theexception of cotton, which is a primary source ofincome.

The agriculture sector is very prone to weathereffects and climatic fluctuations. It was hit hard bythe drought of 1992. Climatic modelling hasshown that on the whole there will be chances inthe weather and climatic pattern. Most modelsshow that there will be progressing changes inboth precipitation and temperatures in Swazilandin the next 75 years The months ofMarch/April/May (autumn) are projected to havehighest increases in precipitation. On average allthe months will become warmer. Climatic changewill have an implication on crop performance andhence on the yield.

Diseases also become prevalent under high tem-peratures and moisture content. Atmospheric car-

bon dioxide content is also expected to double bythe year 2075 unless there are interventions toreduce its emission. This chapter attempts to assessthe performance of maize, beans, sorghum andother crops under climate change conditions inSwaziland.

4.4.2Baseline Information

4.4.2.1 Crop production in Swaziland

In 1990/90, the agricultural sector accounted forE135 million or 13.5% of GDP. Of this total, 22%was accounted for by maize and cotton productionon Swazi Nation Land, 60% by sugar, citrus andpineapple production on Title Deed Land, and therest by livestock (Swaziland Government, 1994a).

Agriculture and forestry establishments remain thelargest employers offering about 35% of the for-mal private employment. The figure is even higherwhen considering the informal sector employmentthat includes family workers, small-scale tradersand private homesteads.

About 11% of the land in both SNL and TDL areused for cropping and this area is gradually increas-ing. As an example in 1981, 142,426 ha was undercultivation while in 1991 the area under cultivationhad increased to 195,000 ha (SwazilandGovernment, 1992). The practice of fallowing in

Harvested grapefruit at Swazican, Malkerns used for fruit juice processing


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croplands has been decreasing due to the increasein population leading to higher demands forcropped land.

Subsistence farmers generally carry out agriculturalactivities on SNL. They tend to diversify their pro-duction of crops by growing a mixture of maize andother crops such as jugo beans, groundnuts, andIrish potatoes in the same field. These farmers

often sell their produce only when financial needsdictate and most yields are consumed by residentsof the adjacent homesteads. A large part of theSNL is under maize production, which is the staplefood of Swaziland.

Sugarcane is the leading crop in TDL and it is themain source of foreign exchange for the country.The value of export of sugar was 25% of the total

national export in 1992 (Swaziland Government1994b). Maize remains the most important cropon Swazi Nation Land (Table 4.13).

The country has however never been self-sufficientin maize production, and consumption needs havealways been satisfied by imports. The total nation-al cereal national cereal requirements for 1991/92were estimated at 223,000 tones of which

127,000 tones were maize. The self-sufficiencyrose from 42% in 1991/92 to 59% in 1992/93(Swaziland Government, 1994a).

A higher maize output of 153,000 tonnes wasachieved in 1991 while the lowest, at 30,000tonnes was achieved in 1983. The 1992 harvest of46,000 tonnes was the second lowest of all years.

source: Swaziland Government

Table 4.13: Area under major crops in the 1994 - 95 cropping season


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4.4.2.2 Sensitivity to climate

Agricultural production in Swaziland is very sensi-tive to climate and climate variation. The fluctua-tions in yearly crop and livestock production aremostly due to inter-annual variations in weather(Table 4.14).

The different crops are sensitive to climatic-relatedelements. As for example when temperatures fallbelow 21 ˚C sugarcane growth fails. If the temper-atures are too low the sucrose content for the sug-arcane is also low. Crops like cotton will not toler-ate heavy rainfall. The rainfall in Swaziland is spo-radic and there are often prolonged periods ofdrought. This leads to the dying of cattle in thelowveld, which is most prone to drought.

4.4.2.3 Maize

Maize forms the stable diet, and it is the mostcommon crop grown in Swaziland. The presentarea under maize production stands at 58,787ha with 93% of the area (54,757 ha) underSwazi Nation Land (SNL). However maize pro-duction in the country does not meet thedemand and this leads to importation of largeproportion of the required maize and maizeproducts.

Maize grows well on a wide range of soil typesthroughout Swaziland provided the pH of thesoil is around 5.0, but prefers deep, well-drainedsoils. Rainfall in excess of 760 mm during thegrowing season is necessary for full develop-ment. The maize crop is very sensitive to watershortages, particularly at tasselling and silkingand does not yield well if distribution is irregular.

Table 4.14: Climatic thresholds of Swaziland crops


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dleveld where temperatures are optimal. Exportrepresents about 82% of the total sugar. For thecurrent base period the country produces an aver-age of about 3807000 tones of sugarcane perannum.

4.4.2.5 Citrus

The citrus industry produces grapefruits, oranges,soft citrus and lime. Seven estates whose activitiesfall under the auspices of the Swaziland CitrusBoard produce the fruit. About 60% of the fruitare exported.

4.4.2.6 Cotton

Cotton is grown on about 27,000 ha in the wholeof Swaziland, with 11,000 ha being in the SNL.High yields for cotton can only be obtained whereseasonal temperatures are high and with plenty of

The Lowveld areas are considered marginal formaize production, unless irrigation is available.Maize is also sensitive to extreme temperatures.Too cold (highveld winters) inhibit growth whiletoo hot (Lowveld summers) shorten the life ofthe plant and interfere with pollination.

The optimum period for maize plantation is afterthe first spring rains in October through midNovember. Early planted (August-September)maize is liable to maize streak. Late planted(December-January) is also susceptible to streak,drought and witchweed. Out of the harvest ofabout 3000 kg /ha a farmer can lose 50 kg/ha/dayby planting after the end of October. Maize plant-ed at the end of December rarely yields more than250 kg/ha. Hybrids will always outyield open polli-nated varieties by as much as 750 kg to 1500kg/ha, but new seed, which is expensive, must bebrought each year.

A farmer who rarely exceeds 500 to 1000 kg /hawill gain no advantage from planting expensivehybrid seeds because other husbandry inputrequire improvement as a priority. Open pollinated(local selections) may mature in 130 to 200 days,while some hybrids may mature in as little as 100to 110 days.

4.4.2.4 Sugarcane

There has been an increase in sugarcane produc-tion in the country with farmers in SNL growing it.All the cane cultivated in the country is under irri-gation, and the sugar industry is therefore able tobetter cope with drought situations. The sugarcaneis planted mainly in the lowveld and lower mid-

Tusseling maize crop - the staple diet.


57

sunshine. Growth is poor above 800 m altitude.Cotton tolerates drought but is particularly suscep-tible to waterlogging. Only hybrid cottonseeds aregrown in the country (Albacala 72 and Deltapine).Cotton can only be planted after the legal plantingdate (October), which has been set to control dis-eases and pests.

4.4.2.7 Beans

Beans are adapted to a wide range of climate con-ditions but do not yield well under extremes oftemperature. Hot, dry wind during flowering cancause severe blossom drop and may shrivel maturepods. Beans are often killed by frost. Similarly cool,wet-seasons are highly unfavourable becausebeans are easily injured by excessive moisture, andare subject to attack by diseases which thrive undersuch conditions.

The optimum amount of rainfall is 400 to 500 mmof rain, well distributed over the growing season.Beans are very susceptible to drought, particularlyduring flowering and pod set which normally takesplace 6 to 9 weeks after planting. Irrigation isrequired where plantings are recommended out-side the seasonal rain (October to March). The fol-lowing are recommended planting seasons:

Highveld: October - FebruaryMiddleveld: August - September: January - MarchLubombo: September - October: February - MarchDry Middleveld: January - MarchLowveld: February - August

There are several bean varieties with varying lengthof maturity. Contender has a short growing seasonof 110 days, while Speckled Sugar, which is themost popular type matures unevenly in 120 - 140days. Brown Haricot is a long season variety thatmatures in about 150 days. About 2000 tones ofbeans are produced annually in the current baseperiod.

4.4.2.8 Pineapples

Pineapples are grown in the middleveld by thecompany Swazican on its own land and on leasedland, and to a lesser extent, by farmers on Swazisettlement scheme. In addition, Swazican importssome pineapples from the Republic of South Africa.

4.4.2.9 Sorghum

Sorghum grows best with rainfall of 650-900 mm.It is more drought resistant than maize. Sorghum isvery sensitivity to soil acidity and no crop will beobtained if the pH is less than about 4.0. There arehybrid sorghum varieties (e.g. NK 300 and D036) aswell as open pollinated varies (Red Swazi and NtuliRed).

Hybrid varies tend to require better fertility andmore rain than open pollinated varieties which willdo moderately well in marginal rainfall areas. Mostvarieties are expected to flower within 60 to 75days of planting with maturing in a further 50 to 60days thereafter.


Sorghum stalks

Harvested pine apples

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4.4.2.10 Potatoes

Potatoes produce heaviest yields in areaswith cool days and adequate moisture. Frostcan kill potatoes. Summer production in theLowveld is unsatisfactory because of too hightemperatures. Summer production in theMiddleveld is difficult because of pest anddisease problems associated with tempera-ture and moisture. Potatoes can be grown inthe highveld during summer; again diseaseproblems reduce yields.

4.4.3 Methods of estimating effectsof climatic changes on crop yield

4.4.3.1 Simulation of crop yields

The Decision Support System forAgrotechnical Transfer (DSSAT3) comprehen-sive software system was used to simulatethe yield of three crops under present climat-ic conditions and under projected climaticand atmospheric conditions. The three cropsfor which simulations were run are maize,sorghum and dry beans. The simulationswere done for three sites; Big Bend, Malkernsand Mbabane, representing the lowveld,middleveld and highveld respectively.

The simulations were done with all otherconditions such as fertilisation, weeding andpest and disease control being optimised.Simulations were done to project yields forthe year 2025 since reliable historical climat-ic data available for the weather stationsdated back to 30 years.

The output of the modelling includes not only theharvest yield, but also parameters such as biomassyield, stalk yield and nitrogen content of the crop.For this project only the harvest yield was consid-ered. Simulations were done using climatic patternsbased on three climate simulation models; CCEQ,GFDL and UKTR under three conditions for each;low change (low), medium change (medium), andhigh change (high) in environmental conditions.

For maize the simulations were further done todetermine sensitivity of yield to changes in plantingdates and changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

4.4.3.2 Effect of climatic change on other crops

Expert judgement was used to suggest likely effectsof climatic changes to other crops that could not besupported by the DSSAT3 software. These judge-ments were based on the known climatic require-ments and threshold conditions for the crops. Forexample, cotton will not tolerate heavy rains andwill need temperatures of between 24-29˚C forgrowth.

4.4.3.3 Comparison of model output with actualyields

Reliable experimental data on yields for the crops inSwaziland was lacking for all the stations. In anattempt to compare the outputs of the projectionswith actual yields average yields under SNL, whichwere obtained during a census (1992-1993) wereused (Central Statistical Office, 1993). The actualyield will depend to a large extent on the manage-ment standard. The management standard underSNL conditions tends to be lower on average, eventhough there are always those individual farmerswho have high standards. Table 4.15 shows aver-age yield from Swazi Nation Land for selected crops.

Table 4.15 Average yield (kg/ha) under present situation for different crops.

Source: Central Statistics Office, 1993

Potatoes


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4.4.4Results

4.4.4.1 Maize

The projected yields for maize for Big Bend andMalkerns are shown in Table 4.16. A decrease inthe projected yields was observed for most of themodels for both Big Bend and Malkerns when themaize was planted during the recommended peri-od, which is the second week of October. (Tables4.16 and 4.17)

The change in projected yield for Big Bend rangedfrom -59% (CCEQ low) to -30% (UKTR medium).This was an indication that a decrease in maize yieldis expected in Swaziland under the expected climat-ic change conditions. This could have a negativeimpact on the country’s status of food security.

The projected doubling of the population in 25years will further increase the demand for food.The area under maize production is currentlydecreasing due to a number of farmers in bothSwazi Nation Land and Title Deed Land shiftingfrom growing traditional crops such as maize tosugarcane which is considered more profitable.

In the event of doubling atmospheric carbon diox-ide concentrations, the change in projected yieldwould not be significant. The predicted change inmaize yield for Big Bend (CCEQ low) would befrom -59% to -57%, and for CCEQ high, it wouldchange from -33% to -17%.

The projected yields showed great improvementwhen changing the planting season from the tradi-tional second week of October to the second weekof August. There was an increase in the projectedyield of up to 9% under Big Bend conditions whenusing the CCEQ medium prediction model (Table4.16). The projected yield increase was even greaterunder Malkerns conditions, recording an increaseof as much as 28% (CCEQ low) predictionmodel.With planting done earlier than August theprojected yield was reduced at all sites and for allthe models. The recorded reduction in yield was asmuch as 85% at Big Bend with CCEQ low.

4.4.4.2 Sorghum

The simulations indicate a decrease in the yield ofsorghum for all the other weather stations except atMbabane. For Big Bend the decrease in yield is pro-

Table 4.16 Projected maize yield (kg/ha) under different crop and model conditions.


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jected to range from 78% (UKTR: low) to 59%(GFDL: medium).

The yield for Malkerns is projected to fall bybetween 25% and 8%. The yield for Mbabane isexpected to increase by a margin of between 60%and 8%. This can be attributed to the fact that thetemperature for Mbabane is expected to increase,as well as the rainfall.

4.4.4.3 Beans

The projected yield for beams is expected todecrease for all the places by the year 2025 exceptunder Big Bend conditions when planted during theusual period of February. The reduction in Mbabaneis expected to range from 11% to 23%, while thatfor Malkerns is expected to range from 30% to46%. An increase in yield at Big Bend is expected.The expected increase in yield ranges from 38% to191%.

4.4.5 Expected effect of environmentalchange to other crops

The effect of environmental change to other majorcorps in the country could not be simulated due tolack of simulation model to support them. Howeversome possible effects were deduced on the basis ofprojected weather data and climatic requirementsfor the crops. For example for cotton the projectedincrease in rainfall may bring about waterloggingof the crop.

The high rainfall and high temperatures may resultin high incidence of pests and diseases especially inthe middleveld. This may result in decline in yield.Potatoes, being temperate crops may not do wellsince temperatures will be high. The may be highincidences of diseases due to high moisture andtemperatures. The yields are generally expected todecline. Some areas such as the middleveld, whichare currently suitable for growing potatoes, areexpected not to be suitable in the future.

Table 4.17 Projected change in maize yield (%) under different crop and model conditions.


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The temperature is expected to be suitable for sug-arcane production in most regions in the country.The increase in rainfall and temperature is expectedto have a positive impact on pineapple perform-ance

Yield for citrus is expected to decrease due to highincidences of pests and diseases. The overallexpected effect on crop production is a decline inyield for temperate crops and an increase in tropi-cal and subtropical crops.

4.4.6Adaptation

One of the main adaptation strategies that may befollowed is a change of growing the season in thecountry. The normal planting season for maizemiddle of October. When maize was planted in thesecond week of August there was a projectedincrease in the yield in most areas

Late planting (mid December) is projected to leadto decline in yield. Another adaptation strategywould be to grow varieties that are tolerant to hightemperatures and high rainfall. This would requirebreeding of crops to suit the conditions. There maybe changes in the types of crops grown in the dif-ferent regions in the future. For example sugar

cane may be grown predominantly in the highveldas opposed to the current situation where it isgrown predominantly in the lowveld and the mid-dleveld.

The type of crops grown in the country may haveto change. For example potatoes may not begrown in the country in the future, and crops suchas cassava may be the main root crop.

4.4.7 Conclusion

The effects of climatic change in Swaziland will varywith different crops. The effect will however benegative for maize, which is the staple crop in thecountry. The maize yield is expected to decline by asmuch as about 60% in other areas of the countryunless some measures are taken.

The highveld may not be suitable at all for growingmaize in the next 25 years. The impact may be pos-itive for some crops such as sugarcane. The climaticchange will bring about changes in cropping patternand dates. One of the adaptation measures that maybe followed is to change the planting season of thecrops. When planted during the first week ofAugust, maize could produce increased yields.

Table 4.18 Projected sorghum yield (kg/ha) under different crop and model conditions (year 2025).


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The outlook for the agriculture sector on the wholeis not favourable. The predicted degrease in maizeyield of as much as 60% would offset the goal ofthe goverment for self-sufficiency in Maize. Thehigh population growth and demand of land forcash crops such as sugarcane and pineapples mayfurther compound the reduction in yield. More ofthe maize may have to be imported, draining thelimited foreign reserves of the country.

A large percentage of the population could end upon food aid. The government mayl have to set upstrategies to assist the population. The agriculturesector does not only directly provide employment,but also provides raw material for other manufac-turing industries. With reduction if yield of majorcrops such as maize, people may lose their jobs dueto lack of raw material.

The combination of food shortage and lack ofemployment could lead to high crime rates. Thegovernment may not be able to fulfil its goals ofincreasing rural income and improving the nutri-tional status of the population. As the predictionsindicate that maize yield may be increased by earlyand timely planting, means should be found to haveenough tractors in the "Tractor Hire Scheme" of thegoverment. Finance should be made available topurchase inputs such as fertilizers and hybrid seeds.The use of land should be controlled to minimise the

conversion of land used to grow food crops togrowing cash crops such as sugarcane.

4.4.7.1 Limitations of project

i. The lack of experimental data made it notpossible to calibrate and statistically testthe effectiveness of the modelling underSwaziland conditions. Average yields forthe different crops were used to demon-strate the relationship between projectedyield and actual yield. There is need tocarry out experiments in the four agro-eco-logical zones and to further calibrate themodel.

ii The DSSAT3 Model used was fully devel-oped for a limited number of crops.Modules for important crops such as sug-arcane, potatoes and cotton are still lack-ing. There is need to fully develop the miss-ing modules for it to be more comprehen-sive in its usage.

Table 4.19 Projected dry beans yield (kg/ha) under different crop and model conditions ( year 2025).


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5.1 INTRODUCTION

In accordance with article 4.7 under the UNFCCC,member states in the developing world are expect-ed to ensure that greenhouse gas emissions arelinked to sustainable development through encom-passing environmental considerations and socioequity in their drive for economic growth.

As indicated in the inventories, CO2 per capita of0.871 Gg is on the low side compared both to theAfrican region and lower still compared to thedeveloped world’s average. In view of this, it isSwaziland’s position that GHG emission reduction islinked to sustainable development goals of eco-nomic growth, environmental protection and socioequity. In the same vein, Swaziland recognises itsextreme vulnerability to climate change owing tothe nature of its national circumstances. For this rea-son the country commits itself outlined resourcespermitting to undertake programmes aimed atavoiding emissions, and hence the protection of theclimate.

Although Swaziland has not yet put in place aClimate Change Policy per-se, its commitment toclimate change is manifested through a number ofinitiations both in the national and internationalfronts amongst which are the following:

i. Ratification of international protocols/con-ventions related to the environment.

ii. Formulation of several national develop-ment and environmental policies, each ofwhich in one way another contributes toavoidance of emissions and/or mitigationof climate change.

iii. Including environmental concerns in theSwaziland National Energy Policy (SNEP)being developed with assistance from theDanish Cooperation for Environment andDevelopment (DANCED).

In addition, Swaziland, with assistance fromUNDP/GEF has undertaken as part of the enabling

activities for the preparation of the national com-munication, studies in mitigation analysis. The mit-igation analysis will assist in the formulation ofappropriate policies and measures which will go along way towards avoidance of GHG emissions.

5.1.1 Enabling Activities For ThePreparation Of The NationalCommunication

As part of this activity, an in-depth study on miti-gation analysis and strategies involving an exami-nation and development of the baseline scenario,and analysis of various mitigation options includ-ing changes in policy, was undertaken by a multi-disciplinary team.

The main focus of the study was to develop base-line scenarios in energy and forest sectors. Therationale for selecting the energy and forest sec-tors was largely driven by the level of emissionsemanating from the former and the degree of landdegradation caused by the latter together with itsapparent huge GHG sink capacity. The baselinewhich was developed for both sectors, adopted abusiness as usual approach and was mainly influ-enced by the economic development path thatSwaziland would follow without implementing anymitigation option to reduce GHG emissions andimplementing strategies elaborated under theNDS, due to constraints of availability of financialresources.

In most developing countries such as Swaziland,fuel-wood is the main source of energy for ruralcommunities. As such, there is strong interdepend-ence between the energy and the forest sectors.

This interdependence is underlain by the fact thatincreasing demand for energy is associated withincreasing deforestation hence the need to under-take mitigation analysis in these two sectors. Apartfrom supplying energy, forests and woodlands alsosupply timber and non-timber (e.g. fruits, honey,edible insects and medicine) products inSwaziland.

Mitigation Options Analysis

Chapter

5

Mitigation Option Analysis

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5.2 ENERGY

5.2.1 Baseline Development

Under both baseline and mitigation analysis, thefollowing issues were considered:

i. Assessment of present energy demand andGHG emissions related to physical sourcesand economic sectors, and projections ofthese according to a baseline linked tolong term development plans and goals, asstipulated under national circumstances.

ii. Identification of options for the abatementof GHG emissions, concentrating on majoremitting sectors, as elaborated underinventories.

iii. Cost of reduction alternatives

iv. Implementation issues and institutionalarrangements

The time frame for reporting was set between1994 and 2030, with reporting years 2000, 2010,and 2030.

5.2.2 Methodology and Assumptions

The energy demand and GHG emissions forecastwas determined with the help of the Long RangeEnergy Alternative Planning (LEAP). LEAP is a bot-tom up model developed by the StockholmEnvironmental Institute based in Boston (SEI-B). The

LEAP forecasts energy consumption and GHG emis-sions by sector and national energy demand bysumming up sectoral energy consumption andGHG emissions.

In order to assess the current and future energydemand and GHG emissions in the energy sector,the following assumptions were used both in thebaseline and mitigation scenarios:

5.2.3 Population and household size

Population and household size growth have influenceon the demand for services and energy and thus willimpact on future energy demands. Based on dataobtained under macro-economic analysis, Swaziland’spopulation is projected to reach 1.5 million by 2010 atan average growth rate of 2.7% per annum. Between2010 and 2030, average population growth of 2.3%was assumed. By 1994, the number of householdswere estimated at 172,416 by 2000, 2010, 2020and 2030, they are projected to increase to 197,620,248,078, 311,418 and 390,931, respectively.

5.2.4 Household energy mix and GDP

Under macro-economic analysis, the number ofhousehold energy mix has been determined.TheGDP projections are shown in Table 5.1, for eachsector.

5.2.5 Energy intensity and demand projections

Energy intensity over technologies and devices iscrucial in determining the energy demand and CO2

Table 5.1 Projections for average growth rates of GDP by sector (1994-2030)


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projections. Specific energy intensity values havebeen used under both baseline and mitigationanalysis. To take into account the expected techno-logical improvements of the various appliances andtechnologies, recognition was taken of theAutonomous Energy Efficiency Improvements(AEEI) factor. This factor allows intensity of energyuse to decline as a result of the overall global effortto improve energy efficiency in production practicesand technology.

The expected trends in AEEIs from the various sec-tors over the years will largely be influenced by sec-tor and area of application. The AEEIs in this workranges from 0 to -1 percent.

A projection for energy demand for Swaziland isshown on Table 5.2.

The total energy demand is expected to grow from32.52 in 1994 to 39.42, 54.51, 75.65, and105.35million gigajoules in 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030,respectively, to support the expected economic andpopulation growths.

5.2.6 CO2 Emission Projections

A projection of CO2 emissions for Swaziland by sec-tor in million kilograms, between 1994 and 2030.isshown on Table 5.3.

The total CO2 emissions in Swaziland are expectedto grow from 875.67 in 1994 to 1075.62, 1518.15,2147.21 and 3042.68 Gigagrams in 2000, 2010,2020, and 2030, respectively.

5.2.7 Mitigation in the energy sector

Mitigation in the energy sector considered threeeconomic sectors, namely, industry, road trans-portation, and household, and one supply side,electricity generation.

i Supply Side

Application of advanced, more efficient steam andelectric power generation through the use of highpressure Condensing Extraction Steam Turbines(CEST), using bagasse as input fuel.

Table 5.2 Swaziland’s energy demand projections by fuel type (Million GigaJoules)

Table 5.3 Projections of CO2 by sector in million kilograms


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ii End Use

In industry, energy efficient boilers, electric motorsand matching electric supply to demand areoptions considered.

In road transportation options are improved main-tenance through annual state inspection and gaso-line/ethanol blending.

Under households, issues are the use of efficient lights,solar geysers, improved wood stoves, switching fromwood and kerosene to LPG and electric stoves, etc. Detailed characteristics and assumptions for theidentified mitigation options on both the country’senergy demand and its related CO2 emissions werenot explored in the scope of this study due to cer-tain limitations that have to do with availability ofactivity data and others. Undertaking such an exer-cise could reveal in quantitative terms the antici-pated impacts due to implementation of theseoptions on the country’s energy demand and onthe concentrations of the CO2 emissions. This exer-cise is recommended in future development of thework in this section.

5.3 FORESTRY

5.3.1Baseline and mitigation analysis

Mitigation analysis and strategies involved anexamination of the baseline scenario and analysisof various mitigation options including changes inpolicy . The national baseline was developed withthe assistance of COMAP (ComprehensiveMitigation Analysis Process). The COMAP was usedto analyse the impact of changes in forestry cover,product supply and demand and cost and benefitsof mitigation options.

5.3.2Methodology

COMAP was used both for the baseline and miti-gation analysis. The data used in the model wasbased on information acquired during the green-house gas emission survey. Additional data wasobtained from relevant stakeholders and secondarysources such as articles from relevant ministries.

To establish the areal extent of various land usesunder the baseline scenario in the country, theland-use map of Swaziland (Remmelzwaal &

Table 5.4 Possible annual rates of change and causes for the change in different land-use categories.


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Dlamini, 1994) was used. The annual rate ofchange in each land use category was based on thefindings of the greenhouse gas emission inventory.Table 5.4 shows the anticipated rates and causesfor the changes in each land- use category underthe baseline scenario.

Under the baseline scenario, COMAP provided thefollowing output:

i Land patterns under baseline and mitigationanalysis

ii Estimates of the biomass (carbon) stock duringthe target period (1994-2030) under baselineand mitigation scenarios

iii Product and supply demand during the targetperiod

iv Costs and benefits of mitigation options

Under mitigation, three options were considered.These options were;

i Natural regeneration

ii Forest protection

iii Reforestation

In recommending the measures to be taken under

each mitigation option, secondary data (especiallypublications) from the Ministries of Agriculture andCo-operatives, Tourism, Environment andCommunication and Natural Resources and Energywere used. Recognising the importance of policyreview in mitigation analysis, existing policies andproposed policy changes were also reviewed.

Considering the seriousness of erosion in the coun-try and its role on desertification and climatechange, natural regeneration and reforestationprogrammes were recommended for the rehabili-tating of eroded land (wasteland) sites. The recom-mended reduction of wasteland is 200 ha per yearstarting in 2001. This suggests a decrease of about10% per annum of eroded land.

To date, protected land in the country covers about5 800 ha. (about 4% of the total land area). Thepresent area of protected land in the country is 6%,compared to 10% that is recommended by IUCNyet part of the protected land is being convertedinto agriculture and possible mining.

Land conversions in protected areas is likely todecrease by 0.5% from the year 2000/2001 if notcontrolled. It is for this reason that forest protectionhad been considered in the mitigation analysis. Tomitigate against this change, the recommendedincrease in protected land is about 1% (100ha) peryear, starting in 2001.

Table 5.5 Projected land use patterns under baseline scenario.


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5.3.3 Results

5.3.3.1 Baseline scenario.

With the application of COMAP, changes in land-use patterns under baseline scenario were estimat-ed as given in Table 5.5. From the results shown onTable 5.6 it appears that the area under forest,grasslands and rangelands is likely to decreaseunder the baseline scenario. This decrease is attrib-uted to the land conversions to other land useactivities, especially cropping and an increasingnumber of settlements.

The projected decreases are 17% for forest cover,grazingland and grassland by the year 2030.Wastelands are projected to increase by 56% bythe year 2030 under the baseline scenario. It is pro-jected there will be an increase in protected land(National parks) with increasing awareness by ruralcommunities of the importance of environmentalprotection under the baseline scenario

5.3.3.2 Mitigation scenario

The intention of mitigation is to increase the areaunder forest and to reduce the degraded area(wasteland). Some of the mitigation measures arealready in the plans of the Forestry Section in theMinistry of Agriculture and Co-operatives and theEnvironment Authority through the SwazilandEnvironmental Action Programme.

These departments overall mandate is to ensurethat forestry resources are managed and conserved

optimally in order to prevent degradation fromexploitation (Swaziland Government, 1994). Thisentails maintaining a forest resource inventory andmonitoring the rate of deforestation. To achievethis mandate the government intends to undertakethe following activities:

i Draft a forest policy and land use plan forforestry development.

ii Identify project areas based on forest inventory.

iii Planting of buffer zones using fast growing treespecies.

iv Introduction of agro-forestry activities.

v Implement sustainable management plans forindigenous forests for production of timber,medicine and other forest products.

vi Establishment of additional woodlots.

The private sector is also engaged in encouragingthe communities in SNL in the production of forestfor income generation. The interventions of thepublic sector and the private sector will contributeto an increase in the area under forest cover. Therecommended annual increases under the mitiga-tion scenario are 5% for dense forest, 2% forwoodlands and forest with less than 10% crowncover. With the increase in forest cover, it is pro-jected that area under rangelands and grasslandswill be reduced by 1% and 2% respectively.

Table 5.6 Area under different land uses (000 ha) under mitigation scenario.


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Considering that the overall aim of mitigation is toreduce the area of wasteland and increase the areaof protected land, an annual reduction of 10% isrecommended for wastelands from the year 2000.Protected land on the other hand should beincreased by 5% annually. The projected changes inthe area under the various land uses under the mit-igation scenario are shown on Table 5.6.

Using the projected changes in the area under thedifferent land-use activities, the biomass density

(Table 5.7) and pool (Table 5.8) was generated forthe baseline and mitigation scenarios. The resultsindicate that under the baseline scenario, the bio-mass pool will be reduced by 6% by the year 2030(Figure 5.1). However, adoption of the suggestedinterventions (natural regeneration, forest protec-tion and reforestation) under the mitigation sce-nario would increase the biomass pool by 19% bythe year 2030.

5.3.3.3 Product extraction rates, supply and

Table 5.7 Biomass density for different land uses (tb/ha) under baseline and mitigation senarios.

Figure 5.1: Biomass pool under baseline scenario and mitigation scenario.


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demand

Under the present situation, most products areextracted at a rate that exceeds the sustainablerates. This is particularly true with respect to theextraction of fuel-wood from woodlands. On theother hand, the extraction of electricity from forestresources, perennial crops and dams is below thesustainable rates. Since the extraction rates aredirectly proportional to the human population, anincrease in population will result in increasedextraction rates. With the increasing demand, thesupply of the products may be inadequate to meetthe national needs unless appropriate mitigationmeasures are taken.

5.3.3.4 Costs of mitigation options.

There are underlying costs under the baseline sce-nario. These underlying costs include the cost ofrehabilitating degraded land, cost of supplyingalternative water sources with a reduction in returnflows, maintaining personnel and equipment in for-est protection. These costs will increase over theyears and associated with the increasing costs willbe a reduction in the benefits derived from the for-est resources. Costs will also be incurred during andafter the implementation of each of the selectedmitigation options. The costs will include costs oflabour, materials and monitoring the mitigationprojects.

Table 5. 8 Biomass pool (000 tonnes)

Table 5.9 Baseline and Mitigation costs and benefits of natural regenaration.

Table 5.10 Baseline and Mitigation costs and benefits of forest protection.


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5.3.3.5 Natural regeneration

Under Natural regeneration, the mitigation costswill include the costs of fencing the project areas,personnel to monitor activities and maintainanaceof the project sites. With inflation, it is projectedthat the mitigation costs will increase to about $5618 per ha per year by 2030 (Table 5.9). However,the gross benefits that would be derived from themitigation measure would amount to about $18613.00 per ha per year by the year 2030. Thismeans that natural regeneration would yield a netbenefit of about $5 204.00 per ha per year by theyear 2030.

The projected benefits under natural regenerationinclude better market prices for livestock as a resultof increased availability and nutritional value ofgrasses (fodder), increased availability of plantresources for extraction and improved in crop pro-duction through irrigation as a result of increasedreturn flows in river systems.

5.3.4 Forest protection

In Swaziland, forest protection is generally confinedto nature reserves. Only a few areas (for example,the indigenous forest near Mangwaneni inMbabane) outside nature reserves are protected.As such, the estimated baseline costs of forest pro-tection in this study are based on the activities with-in nature reserves, especially the remuneration ofrangers and maintenance of the reserve.

Under the baseline scenario, nature reserves areunder pressure from the need for land. Commercial

crop production is encroaching into nature reserves(for example, Mhlosinga in Big Bend and part ofHlane Game park), mining is also threatening a partof Malolotja nature reserve which contains anafromontane forest. It is projected that under thebaseline scenario, the costs of forest protection willincrease with a reduction in the benefits (Table 5.10and 5.11). Contributing to the reduction in benefitswill be the reduction in tourist attractions hence lownumbers of tourists visiting the country. The pro-jected decline in benefits is about $7.00 per ha peryear. As such, there is need to identify and manageprotection worthy areas on communal lands.

The costs of protecting the forests would includethe cost of fencing the land, recruiting rangers tomonitor activities and manage the protected areas.The gross benefits to be derived from forest pro-tection are projected at about $5 756.00 per ha peryear. The benefits would arise from increasedtourism and availability of forest resources.

Table 5.10: Baseline and Mitigation costs and benefits of reforestation.


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6.1 OBJECTIVE

The determination of Swaziland to join in imple-menting the Convention is demonstrated by actionsalready taken or envisaged by the country in terms ofpolicy frameworks, programmes and other environ-ment-related measures which either directly or indi-rectly have a bearing on GHG emissions.

6.2 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

Government formulated the National DevelopmentStrategy (NDS) as the key policy framework thatspells out the long-term (25 year) vision for the coun-try. It presents the priority objectives the country hasidentified in its overall developmental need. In likemanner it recognizes the international obligationsthe country has committed itself and the associatedcalls for action in compliance with the same.

Of the eight key macro strategic areas identified inthis policy document is one on environmental man-agement, which directly relates to issues of imple-mentation of the Convention. It specifically places arequirement to both the public and private sectorsto take environmental considerations into accountin all their policy, strategy and programme’s devel-opment. The country believes that such an achieve-ment of purpose will result in a sustainable interac-tion with our environment and its resources for thebenefit of today’s and future generations.

6.3 THE ENVIRONMENT

The country has also shown its commitment to imple-menting Agenda 21 and its concept on sustainabledevelopment. To this end the Swaziland EnvironmentAuthority (SEA) was established in 1992 as the officialauthority tasked with the coordination and manage-ment of issues of the environment. Further regula-tions on environment impact assessment were prom-ulgated making environment assessments mandatoryon all development projects.

The Swaziland Environment Action Plan (SEAP)enumerating strategies for tackling the country’senvironmental problems in general and those

specifically related to climate change, agricultureand land use, forestry and rural energy was pre-pared and adopted.

6.4 ENERGY

6.4.1 Fuel and Energy

The significance of the energy sector in issues ofimplementation of the Convention cannot beoveremphasised. The GHG inventories exerciserevealed that virtually all the country’s CO2 emis-sions for year 1994 emanated from this sector inprocesses of fuel combustion.

As part of the NDS, the fuel and energy sector aimsto ensure the sustainable supply and use of energyfor all. In fulfillment of this requirement, the project“Swaziland National Energy Policy” is being imple-mented by the Energy Section within the Ministryof Natural Resources and Energy with the assis-tance of the government of Denmark through theDanish Cooperation for Environment andDevelopment (DANCED).

Prior to this project a number of projects whichhave a bearing on GHG emissions have been imple-mented in Swaziland namely:

i. Energy Planning Projects-Swaziland (withsupport from GTZ to the Ministry ofNatural Resources and Energy)

ii. Briquetting of forestry waste (pre feasibili-ty study initiated by Usuthu Pulp Companyin conjunction with the Sabil Foundation,the Swaziland Government and GTZ)

iii. Household Energy Strategies (funded bythe government of the Netherlands, IVAMEnvironmental Research Centre of theUniversity of Amsterdam)

iv. Rural Electrification in Swaziland (fundedby GTZ)

v. Utilization of Renewable Energy inSwaziland (Export and IndustrialDevelopment Division of theCommonwealth Secretariat assisted theMinistry of Natural Resources and Energy

Policies and Measures

Chapter

6


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to develop a cost effective strategy for theuse of renewable resources)

vi. SADC Industry Energy ManagementProject (CIDA supported project)

vii. Maguga hydro power plant (feasibility studyfunded by the African Development Bank)

viii. Development of the Swaziland ElectricitySupply Industry (funded by the BritishDevelopment Division Southern Africa(BDDSA) and SAD-ELEC)

ix. Renewable Energy Information Network(EU funded)

x. ESMAP Swaziland Household EnergyStrategy Study (UNDP and World Bank.

Through these initiatives Swaziland managed toestablished energy data, technology informationneeds and energy strategies. These provided thepreliminary base for building a comprehensiveenergy policy and strategies for implementation ofthe energy policy.

The development objective of the DANCED projecttherefore is that the energy needs in Swaziland areincreasingly covered in a sustainable and efficientmanner, taking into account indigenous resources,social, economic and environmental factors.

The immediate objective is that at the conclusion ofthe project, the government of Swaziland will havean approved and implementable national energy pol-icy, founded on sustainable and economically soundprinciples in support of the developmental objectivesof the country. Implementation of such a plan willinevitably make a positive contribution to efforts ofreducing the levels of GHG emissions in the countrythrough implementation, amongst others, of energyefficiency and renewable energy technologies.

6.4.2 Supply

Swaziland’s major source of commercial energy inthe form of electricity, petroleum products andcoal, are imported from the Republic of SouthAfrica. The country is however a producer of highquality anthracite coal obtained from Maloma coalmine and exported to markets in South Africa.Swaziland’s coal-based energy needs on the otherhand are met by imports of low quality bituminouscoal from South Africa.

Most of the country’s electricity needs (70%) aremet from the South African Electricity Company(ESKOM). The electricity supply is unstable becausethe grid is relatively weak and operating in excess

of its rated capacity Frequent interruptions andvoltage fluctuations are therefore common fea-tures. Efforts to resolve these problems andimprove the reliability of the supply have culminat-ed in the current installation of a 400 KV line link-ing the three countries: Swaziland, South Africaand Mozambique.

Since the demand for electricity supply is likely toincrease with respect to demand of the vast major-ity of households which are currently not connect-ed to the national grid, more efforts will berequired for the promotion and development ofalternative renewable energy resources.

It is worth noting that Swaziland produces signifi-cantly large amounts of biomass resources in theform of bagasse in the sugar industry, and woodwaste in the pulp and timber industries.Opportunities exist therefore for the country topursue the application of more efficient steam andpower generation through use of high pressurecondensing extraction steam turbines (CEST) usingbagasse. Such systems could produce electricitysufficient for internal use by the factories and evensome excess for export to the national grid by tak-ing advantage of the available state of the art tech-nologies in this field.

6.4.3 Rural Energy

Lack of adequate energy supply in rural householdshas resulted in dependency on wood as a source offuel, thus putting pressure on the indigenous forestresources, thereby contributing to land degrada-tion, another priority area for policy intervention.Options that are open to exploration here include,amongst others:

a) Promoting the use of fuel-efficient stoves andsupporting their production locally.

b) Assessing the use of various sources of energysuch as coal, wood, butane, paraffin, etc withrespect to cost, efficiency, pollution, healthand safety.

c) Attempting to remove the barrier of prohibitiveinitial capital cost of electricity supply connectionthrough a Rural Electrification Fund.

d) To actively pursue development of alternative sourcesof energy such as solar, micro, hydro and biogas.

e) To promote integrated and balanced energysystems ( solar for lighting and entertain-ment, gas for cooking, coal for heating, etc)


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6.5 TRANSPORT

The transport sector is the dominant consumer offossil-based fuels, accounting for 50% of energy’sCO2 emissions in 1994. A transport policy is underdevelopment which will seek to address energy-related issues and concerns with significant com-plementary input derived from the provisionsenshrined in the overall energy policy.

6.5.1 Roads and Road Transport

One of the key factors to national development is theavailability of adequate and reliable roads and roadtransport. Although by African standards, the roadnetwork of main and feeder roads are well devel-oped, under the NDS Swaziland has designed roadsand road transport strategies whose aims are to real-ize and expand road networks accompanied by a wellcoordinated maintenance programme to support theincrease in internal and external flows of goods.

Whilst recognizing the importance of implement-ing roads and road transport strategies, the gov-ernment is cognizant of the financial constraints inimplementing the strategies. For this reason, thegovernment has included in its strategies theinvolvement of the private sector in the construc-tion, operation and maintenance of road networks.The following strategies have been recommendedunder the NDS to enable the implementation of thepolicies:

a) Improve the standards and supervision ofdesign, construction and maintenance ofroads.

b) Establish permanent fund- raising methodsfor road maintenance.

c) Investigate the possibility of using BOT ,BOO and BOOT schemes to provide moreand better roads.

d) Provide adequate and well maintain feederroads.

e) Improve organizational structures to con-trol overloading.

f) Conduct and strengthen road transportdata collection, analysis and compilation.

Expanded paved roads and improved maintenancewill improve on fuel consumption of motor vehiclesthrough realization of optimum speeds, and henceemission reduction in the transport sector.

6.6 FOREST RESOURCES

Swaziland has a huge forest resource which is animportant feature of the country’s heritage andeconomy. Inspite of her small size, the countrycommands one of the largest man-made forests inthe world, covering some 35% of the country’stotal land area. This is evident in the large GHG sinkcapacity that is revealed in the inventories sectionwhich supercedes the emissions totals, making thecountry a net GHG sink.

Such a position indicates that for several decadesnow, the country’s forest resource has been active-ly removing CO2 from the atmosphere even beforethe dictates of the Convention came into effect.Sustainability of the country’s forest resource istherefore desirable in both national as well as inter-national contexts.

There are several policies in Swaziland that are rel-evant to the management of ecosystems and man-aged forests. Existing policies include the SwazilandNational Trust Commission Act (1972), SwazilandEnvironment Authority Act (1992).The National Action Programme for CombatingDesertification also addresses some of the concernsand threats on forestry and ecosystems. The pro-posed Forest Policy emphasises the need to engagein afforestation and reforestation programmes.Public awareness and the propagation of trees arealso encouraged in the policy. There is need toincorporate indigenous trees in these programmesto ensure their future existence, especially thosethat are least vulnerable to changes in climate. Assuch, there is need to expedite the drafting andimplementation of the policies on Land use andForestry in the country. Apart form the existing poli-cies, there are several other complimentary onesbeing drafted for submission to parliament. Suchpolicies include the Environmental managementBill, Water Policy, Land Policy, Biodiversity policy andForest Policy.

TConsidering the paucity of information on the keyparameters of indigenous trees in the country, thereis need for research on these parameters in the coun-try. This will enhance understanding of the impacts ofclimate change on the ecosystems in the country.Changes in plant distribution also need to be moni-tored on a periodic basis, especially in the protectedareas where anthropogenic impacts are controlled.


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6.6.1 Forest resource management

Some identified management actions that could con-tribute to sustain the forest resource are as listed:

a) To prepare management plans for all forestoperations for specific forest sites and orecosystems.

b) To classify and map vegetation forest types,including the status of degradation, using anappropriate and cover classification system.

c) Evaluate and demarcate suitable land for var-ious systems of forest practice such as pro-duction, protection and conservation forests.

d) Assessing and monitoring deforestation andland degradation, including effects of veldand forest fires and recommending andimplementing remedial measures.

e) To apply appropriate silvicultural techniquesand forest practices in the management offorest reserves and community forests.

6.6.2 Afforestation/Reforestation)

Issues under this programme are:

a) To establish individual and community wood-lots of exotic and preferably indigenousspecies.

b) To promote the efficient use of fuel wood torelease pressure from indigenous reserves.

c) To develop, with local communities methodsto combat veld and forest fires and reduce firehazards and emission of unnecessary CO2.

6.7 AGRICULTURE

Government major goals in agriculture as the main-stay of the country’s economy are in crop produc-tion for achieving national self-sufficiency in maize;expanding fruit and vegetable production as ameans of increasing rural income and improvingnutrition; and encouraging cash crop productionamongst small-scale farmers. Achieving these goals will involve the introductionof new crops to farmers as well as the intensifica-tion of production of existing crops. Some of theinitiatives of the Ministry are as follows (SwazilandGovernment, 1994a):

a) The introduction of high yielding, droughttolerant and disease tolerant seed varietiesfor maize.

b) Training of farmers and extension personnelto be enhanced to meet the goal of maize

self-sufficiency in Swaziland.c) Embarking on legume improvement and pro-

duction campaign by both the research divi-sion and extension services of the MOAC. Thelegumes are being promoted to enhance foodnutrition and to widen the base for incomegeneration for small-scale rural farmers.

d) Embarking on a programme to promotesorghum production in drier areas of thecountry.

e) Introducing, evaluating and crossing cottonvarieties in order to identify those that arepest and disease tolerant, and superior inyield and quality.

f) Encouragement of domestic production ofhigh quality maize and bean seeds.

g) Strengthening linkages between research,extension, NGO’s, parastatals and otherstakeholders.

h) Identify and develop cost effective produc-tion technologies.

i) Encourage the farmers to increase agricultur-al productivity by hectar

6.8 INTERNATIONAL LEVEL

At the international level, Swaziland has ratified anumber of environment related protocols and con-ventions which either have influenced or will influ-ence directly or indirectly emissions of GHGs:

a) Framework Convention on Climate Changeb) Biodiversity Convention c) Montreal Protocold) Vienna Convention on Desertification and

Droughte) Convention on International Trade in

Endangered Species (CITES)f) Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and Land

Mines

Other Conventions and protocols (notably theKyoto Protocol) are proposed for signature and rat-ification by the authorities. Together with thesegoodwill commitments that the country accedes to,it is recognised that local resources may be insuffi-cient or inadequate to meet the inherent require-ments. It is anticipated therefore that opportunitiesof partnerships in areas of technology transfer aswell as provision of necessary resources by externalmeans will be explored such as the Kyoto’s CleanDevelopment Mechanisms (CDM) to effectivelyundertake identified implementation measures inthese issues.


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6.9 EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLICAWARENESS

There currently is no formal education on climatechange at the local university or colleges other thangeneral topics touched upon in other courses such asgeography and the physical sciences. However withthe undertaking of the project of compiling enablingactivities under the UNFCCC, the involvement ofeducators from these institutions set the requiredbase for introducing these concepts into curricula.

The theory and practical issues of GHG inventories,mitigation and adaptation studies can be used as afoundation in introducing climate related topicseither in existing courses or in new ones.As regards public awareness on climare change,this has been well founded through active partici-pation of various stakeholders from government,university, private sector and NGO’s in the delibera-tions of the climate change committee. More effortwill be required to expand public awareness cam-paigns to the grassroot level.

Generation of activity data through surveys, inven-tories, experimental studies and related research togenerate emission and conversion factors, contin-ues to be a highly required exercise to improve thequality of the results of the assessments. Researchand development ( R&D) on climate issues as theyrelate to Swaziland are highly desirable for sup-porting the country’s efforts of meaningfull inter-vention in such international processes.

As more interventions are embarked upon in thequest to limit emissions of GHG’s through variousprogrammes, local capacity will need to be devel-oped in specified areas.

The advances in the science of climate change willrequire a continuous development of capacity inthe study team to effectively and efficiently con-duct the required impact assessment in a local con-text and to best advise on issues of adaptation, mit-igation and others.


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National Report on Climate ChangeNational Report on Climate Change

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