Swiss energy transition: Understand to choose
Prof D. Favrat, EPFL Energy Center
Swiss scenarios and the Swiss-
Energyscope Platform
(www.energyscope.ch)
Avec le support de:
Swiss-Energyscope
Why a new information platform and calculator?
Starting points:
• weak knowledge about energy in the population (non experts)
• need to rationalize teaching in the different academic sections ( “experts”)
Hence the need for a calculator that can be adapted to both
inspired by Mackay in UK (DECC) but adapted:
- to Swiss situation
- to be sequential (avoid the black box negative effect)
- to account for the seasonal asymmetry
Swiss-Energyscope
www.energyscope.ch
Swiss-Energyscope
The books
Shorter versions from this month
Swiss-Energyscope
Ongoing: Extension to canton and city
Vaud Lausanne
• EU application being evaluated
• Paper in Energy (in Press,2015)
Swiss-Energyscope
Electricity, Gas, Diesel and Wood ? (lesson 1)
Electricity
1 kWh
Diesel
1 litre
10 kWh
Natural Gas
1 m3
11.2 kWh
Wood
or 1 m3 (oak)
2100 kWh
1 kg
5.6 kWh
Swiss-Energyscope
Scales and monthly representation (lesson 2)
2011
Chaleur perdue
Transport
Chaleur de procédés
Eau chaude
Chauffage de bâtiments
Elec. transport
Elec. procédés
Elec. eau chaude
Elec pompe à chaleur
Elec chauffage à rés.
Elec. Autres
Légende
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
kWh/Einwohner
2011
Abwärme
Verkehr
Prozesswärme (th.)
Warmwasser (th.)
Heizung (th.)
Mobilität (el.)
Industrie (el.)
Warmwasser (el.)
Wärmepumpe (el.)
Elektroheizung (el.)
Andere (el.)
Swiss-Energyscope
Yearly, seasonal, monthly + 6 indicators
Swiss-Energyscope
Present situation
Annual demand of final energy* in 2011 [GWh]
0
50’000
100’000
150’000
200’000
250’000
300’000
350’000
Waste heat
Transport (non electric)
Process heat (non el.)
Hot water(non electric)
Space heating (non el.)
Electricity: transport
Electricity: procédés
Electricity: hot water
Electricity: heat pump
Electricity: Joule heating
Electricity: others
Légendes:
23.4%
27.5%
5.9%
3.4%
19.0%
1.0%
5.8%
0.8%
0.4%
1.1%
11.7%
Total:
285’519
Swiss-Energyscope
BFE scenarios : "NPE" 2035
Annual demand of final energy* in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh]
Electricité: transport
Electricité: procédés
Electricité: autres
Légendes:
23.4%
27.5%
5.9%
3.4%
19.0%
1.0%
5.8%
0.8%
0.4%
1.1%
11.7%
10.0%
22.9%
9.1%
5.5%
18.8%
4.6%
7.3%
0.3%
1.9%
1.4%
18.2%
2011 2035 2011 2035
0
50’000
100’000
150’000
200’000
250’000
300’000
350’000
Total:
285’519
Total:
181’275
Waste heat
Transport (non electric)
Process heat (non el.)
Hot water(non electric)
Space heating (non el.)
Electricity: transport
Electricity: procédés
Electricity: hot water
Electricity: heat pump
Electricity: Joule heating
Electricity: others
Swiss-Energyscope
Scenarios of the Confederation: "NEP" 2035 (L6)
Final energy*demands in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh]
2011 2035
0
50’000
100’000
150’000
200’000
250’000
300’000
350’000
Total:
180’698
Electricité: transport
Electricité: procédés
Electricité: autres
Légendes:
23.4%
27.5%
5.9%
3.4%
19.0%
1.0%
5.8%
0.8%
0.4%
1.1%
11.7%
10.0%
22.9%
9.1%
5.5%
18.8%
4.6%
7.3%
0.3%
1.9%
1.4%
18.2%
2011 2035 2011 2035
0
50’000
100’000
150’000
200’000
250’000
300’000
350’000
Total:
285’519
Total:
181’275
Waste heat
Transport (non electric)
Process heat (non el.)
Hot water(non electric)
Space heating (non el.)
Electricity: transport
Electricity: procédés
Electricity: hot water
Electricity: heat pump
Electricity: Joule heating
Electricity: others
Swiss-Energyscope
SFOE Scenarios : "NPE" 2035
Final energy* demands in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh]
2011 2035
0
50’000
100’000
150’000
200’000
250’000
300’000
350’000
Total:
180’698
Electricité: transport
Electricité: procédés
Electricité: autres
Legend:
23.4%
27.5%
5.9%
3.4%
19.0%
1.0%
5.8%
0.8%
0.4%
1.1%
11.7%
10.0%
22.9%
9.1%
5.5%
18.8%
4.6%
7.3%
0.3%
1.9%
1.4%
18.2%
2011 2035 2011 2035
0
50’000
100’000
150’000
200’000
250’000
300’000
350’000
Total:
285’519
Total:
181’275
Waste heat
Transport (non electric)
Process heat (non el.)
Hot water(non electric)
Space heating (non el.)
Electricity: transport
Electricity: procédés
Electricity: hot water
Electricity: heat pump
Electricity: Joule heating
Electricity: others
Swiss-Energyscope
Scénarios de la Confédération: "NPE" 2035
Final energy demands* in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh]
2011 2035
0
50’000
100’000
150’000
200’000
250’000
300’000
350’000
Electricité: transport
Electricité: procédés
Electricité: autres
Legend:
2011 2035
0
50’000
100’000
150’000
200’000
250’000
300’000
350’000
Total:
285’519
Total:
181’275
Waste heat
Transport (non electric)
Process heat (non el.)
Hot water(non electric)
Space heating (non el.)
Electricity: transport
Electricity: procédés
Electricity: hot water
Electricity: heat pump
Electricity: Joule heating
Electricity: others
Swiss-Energyscope
SFOE Scenario : "NPE" 2035 et 2050
Legend:
23.4%
27.5%
5.9%
3.4%
19.0%
1.0%
5.8%
0.8%
0.4%
1.1%
11.7%
10.0%
22.9%
9.1%
5.5%
18.8%
4.6%
7.3%
0.3%
1.9%
1.4%
18.2%
2011 2035
4.3%
20.8%
9.0%
7.9%
15.0%
7.7%
8.0%
0.1%
2.0%
0.6%
24.6%
2050 2011 2035
0
50’000
100’000
150’000
200’000
250’000
300’000
350’000
2050
Total:
138’076
Final energy*demands in 2011, 2035 and 2050 [GWh]
2011 2035
0
50’000
100’000
150’000
200’000
250’000
300’000
350’000
Total:
285’519
Total:
180’698
Total:
181’275
Total:
138’598
Waste heat
Transport (non electric)
Process heat (non el.)
Hot water(non electric)
Space heating (non el.)
Electricity: transport
Electricity: procédés
Electricity: hot water
Electricity: heat pump
Electricity: Joule heating
Electricity: others
Swiss-Energyscope
SFOE Strategy : six scenarios for the future
Final energy* demands in 2011, 2035 and 2050 [GWh]
Légendes:
0
50’000
100’000
150’000
200’000
250’000
300’000
350’000
2011 2035
Total:
221’858
Total:
197’631 Total:
181’275
high medium low
2050
Total:
201’022 Total:
164’577
Total:
138’598
high medium low Total:
285’519
Waste heat
Transport (non electric)
Process heat (non el.)
Hot water(non electric)
Space heating (non el.)
Electricity: transport
Electricity: procédés
Electricity: hot water
Electricity: heat pump
Electricity: Joule heating
Electricity: others
Swiss-Energyscope
Comparison of costs (lesson 9)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Milliards Frs
2011
2050
Low
2050
Medium
2050
High
Nuclear Fossil electricity Hydro Wind Solar PV Geothermal Electric grid Seasonable storage Electricity import Cogeneration Boilers Other heating Transportation fuels Energy efficiency
Swiss-Energyscope
The broad spectrum of future costs for nuclear
Kannan &Turton Cost of ad-hoc nuclear policy. Energy Policy 2012.
Initial agreement reached on new nuclear power station
at Hinkley (EDF Energy-UK)
The key terms include a “Strike Price” of £89.50 /MWh
fully indexed to the Consumer Price Index
Swiss-Energyscope
Comparison with Prognos scenario 2050 low
Swiss-Energyscope
Electricity and transport
Swiss-Energyscope
Role of renewable (Prognos 2050)
Swiss-Energyscope
La Suisse «électrique» n ’est pas une île
Swiss-Energyscope
Prix à la bourse européenne d ’électricité
25.06.2008
Prix
[€/MWh]
19.01.2009 15.08.2009 11.03.2010 05.10.2010 01.05.2011 25.11.2011 20.06.2012
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
90,00
100,00
40,00
Swiss-Energyscope
Le prix du carbone en chute libre en Europe
2009 2010 2011 2012 0
2
4
6
8
1
0
1
2
1
4
1
6
1
8
2
0
€ par tonne Prix du carbone dans l’Union Européenne
https://newmatilda.com/2013/07/18/only-idiot-would-scrap-carbon-price from http://www.investing.com/commodities/carbon-emissions-historical-data
Swiss-Energyscope
Comparison between 2011 and 2050 low
Swiss-Energyscope
Conclusions
● European market completely unbalanced (only subsidies) ● Low prices of coal and hydro carbons, with depressed carbon
market. In Switzerland swiss hydro and cogeneration producers are clearly disadvantaged
● Debates on nuclear safety and future prices hotter than ever ● Implies wrong signals to investors (for ex: hydro pump storage)
and energy efficiency measures ● Generally positive comments regarding energyscope.ch including
from abroad but too early to judge on impact. Early negative reactions from “emotionally sensitive” groups (global warming deniers, anti-wind mills, ultra-pro-nuclear)
Swiss-Energyscope
Que de choses il faut ignorer pour agir !
So many things we have to ignore, to act
(Valery)
Thanks for your attention