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T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin Tasmania, Australia June 2018 Seapex, London An Exciting New Frontier Gas Province
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Page 1: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

T/49P – Southern Offshore Otway Basin Tasmania, Australia

June 2018

Seapex, London

An Exciting New Frontier

Gas Province

Page 2: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 2

Important Disclaimer

Important Notice

This presentation contains certain statements which may constitute “forward-statements”. Such statements are only predictions

and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties which could cause actual values, results, performance or achievements to

differ materially from those expressed, implied or project in any forward-looking statements.

The nature of the business and activities carried on by 3D Oil are speculative and no representation or warranty, express or

implied, is made by 3D Oil that the material contained in this presentation will be achieved or prove to be correct. Except for

statutory liability which cannot be excluded, each of 3D Oil, its officers, employees and advisers expressly disclaim any

responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the material contained in this presentation and excludes all liability whatsoever

(including in negligence) for any loss or damage which may be suffered by any person as a consequence of any information in

this presentation or any error or omission there from. 3D Oil accepts no responsibility to update any person regarding any

inaccuracy, omission or change in information in this presentation nor any other information made available to a person nor any

obligation to furnish the person with any further information.

The information in this presentation is in summary form only and does not contain all the information necessary to fully evaluate

any transaction or investment. It should be read in conjunction with 3D Oil’s other periodic and continuous disclosure

announcements lodged with the ASX. This document does not constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe for

or purchase any securities and does not form the basis of any contract or commitment. All persons should consider seeking

appropriate professional advice in reviewing this presentation and 3D Oil.

2

Page 3: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 3

PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW

3D Oil has opportunistically built a portfolio of significant positions in some of Australia’s most

prospective offshore exploration basins

T49/P (100% owned)

Exploration – Otway Basin

WA-527-P (100% owned)

Exploration – Roebuck Basin

2017: Opportunistic bid in frontier

acreage next to Phoenix South and

Roc fields – some of the largest

offshore oil and gas-condensate

discoveries in recent times

2012: 3D Oil recognized the potential for an

east coast gas crisis

2013: Acquired exploration permit T/49P,

one of the largest and under-explored

blocks in the Otway Basin

2014: Acquired 3D seismic and identified

leads and prospects proximal to existing

infrastructure at Thylacine

2017: Announced prospective resource of

10TCF (Best Estimate)

2018: Planning underway for 3D seismic

acquisition scheduled for late 2018

Founding asset of 3D Oil in mid 2000s

Joint venture with Hibiscus Petroleum

1

3

VIC/P57 (24.9% owned)

Exploration – Gippsland Basin 2

3

Page 4: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 4

The supply crunch on the east coast of Australia has resulted in a sharp increase in wholesale

gas prices across 2017 and into 2018

EAST COAST AUST GAS SUPPLY CRISIS

2017 gas prices trading between c. A$8-10/GJ

• Post 2017 there is a forecast growing imbalance of gas

supply/demand on east coast

• The completion of significant gas supply contracts is

exacerbating the supply issue

• 3D Oil is set to benefit from increasing east coast gas prices

Shortfall of supply...

...resulting in higher wholesale gas prices (A$/GJ)

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2014 2015 2016

Significant increase in

wholesale gas prices

Gas crisis ‘three times bigger’ than

thought, Malcolm Turnbull says

The looming gas crisis is three times worse than

previously thought, according to Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull, who has ordered gas giants and

state governments to shore up gas supplies to east

coast consumers or face strict export limits. - The Age, 25 September 2017

...and high political focus...

Source: AEMO (prices and withdrawals database)

4

Page 5: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 5

3D Oil expects to be well placed to supply high margin gas production to the east

coast gas market

MEETING VICTORIA GAS DEMAND SHORTFALL

Delivered cost to Melbourne (A$/GJ)

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

- 500 1,000 1,500

Casino Henry Speculant-Halladale

GBJV Thylacine-Geographe

Sole-Manta Cooper Basin

All QLD CSG Amadeus

Yolla Blacktip

Beetaloo Petrel-Tern

Offshore Victoria has a significant cost advantage to supply to Melbourne

High cost supply from northern states

Source: AEMO

5

Melbourne

Sydney

Page 6: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 6

T/49P OVERVIEW

― 3D Oil owns 100% equity in the flagship permit

― Large under-explored offshore block (4,960km2) in

shallow water adjacent producing gas fields that

are filled-to-spill

― Drill-ready 3D defined 1.3 TCF prospect with AVO

support, and at least 5 other leads identified with a

total best estimate prospective resource of 10.5 TCF

recoverable1

― Offshore Otway success rate is 75% post 3D and

100% with AVO support

― 1 TCF has a wholesale value2 of A$4.6 billion

(US$3.5 bill) in Victoria area

6

1 Australian energy Market Operator

2 Refer to ASX announcement dated 27 July 2017 for details on

T/49P Prospective Resource estimate

A potentially significant new Australian gas province

Page 7: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 7

T/49P WORK PROGRAMME

YEAR

Grant 22 May

13

Anniversary

22 February *

ACTIVITY INDICATIVE EXPENDITURE

(A$ MILLION)

GROSS CUMULATIVE

MINIMUM GUARANTEED DRY HOLE WORK PROGRAMME

Year 1 1. Commence approval and planning

process for seismic acquisition.

2. G&G Studies, Seismic mapping,

sequence stratigraphic study, basin

modelling.

3. Reprocess 500km of 2D seismic.

$0.150

$0.200

$0.050

$0.400

Year 2 1. Acquire and process 755 km2 of new

3D seismic.

$12.000

$12.400

Year 3 1. Seismic Interpretation

2. Geological and Geophysical studies.

$0.250

$0.500

$13.150

Sub-Total $13.150

SECONDARY WORK PROGRAMME

Year 4 1. Drilling planning and preparation $0.500 $0.500

Year 5 1. 750 sq km 3D seismic $10.000 $10.000

Year 6 1. Drill one (1) Exploration Well $21,000 $21.000

T/49P : 3D Oil Limited 100% equity holder and operator * Year 5 Variation granted

Page 8: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 8

T/49P is located next to existing domestic gas infrastructure owned by Lattice Energy, BHP,

AWE, Mitsui and Cooper Energy

T/49P – LOCATION

Thylacine topside platform

100% Beach Energy

Halladale

Black Watch

Speculant

FY17 production:

22PJ 2P Reserves:

37PJ 2C Resources:

29PJ

Casino

Henry

Netherby

FY17 production:

7PJ 2P Reserves:

112PJ 2C Resources:

n/a

Minerva

FY17 production:

8PJ End of field life expected

in FY18

Thylacine

Geographe

FY17 production:

26PJ 2P Reserves:

132PJ 2C Resources:

94PJ

Over 63PJ production in FY17

(Equivalent to A$630m @ A$10/GJ)

2P Reserves reaching maturity

Nearby operations

Source: Company announcements, Annual reports

8

Strong opportunity for

new T/49P supply

Production assets reaching maturity

Page 9: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 9

There is significant value in a potential discovery of 10TCF of commercial sales gas as

highlighted by numerous valuation approaches

T/49P – VALUING THE PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES

Resource Status Best A$4.0/GJ A$6.0/GJ A$8.0/GJ A$10.0/GJ A$12.0/GJ

Flanagan Prospect 1.34 5.7 8.5 11.4 14.2 17.1

Munro (T/49P Part) Lead 0.19 8.1 12.1 16.2 20.2 24.2

Whistler Point Lead 2.04 11.5 17.2 23.0 28.7 34.4

British Admiral Lead 1.03 16.3 24.5 32.6 40.8 48.9

Seal Rocks Lead 4.64 23.2 34.8 46.4 57.9 69.5

Harbinger Lead 0.79 32.9 49.4 65.9 82.3 98.8

T/49P Total (Arithmetic) 10.03 97.7 146.5 195.3 244.1 293.0

Potential

value of gas

Illustrative gas in place value (A$ billion)

10TCF of gas =

1,781 billion barrels

of oil2

(or US$71bn

@ US$40/bbl)

September 2017: Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) acquired the

remaining 30% interest in VIC/P43 and T/30P

(Thylacine and Geographe) for A$190m

Recent market transactions Energy equivalents

Acquisition highlights the significant

value of discovered gas in the Otway

Basin and around T49/P

Prospective Resources (TCF)1

9

Notes:

1 Refer to ASX announcement dated 27 July 2017 for details on T/49P Prospective

Resource estimate

2 Converted from boe to cubic feet using SPE conversion factor of 5.66

Page 10: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 10

1.5 3.0

5.1

8.7

16.0

Petrel/Tern Prelude Sunrise Scarborough Browse

10TCF is a significant volume and fits within the realm of some of the largest exploration

prospects in Australia

Note:

1 Reserves and continent resources have been converted at a rate of 1 PJ = 0.172 MMboe

POTENTIAL SCALE OF T/49P VOLUMES

Location

Operator

Offshore WA Offshore WA Timor-Leste Offshore WA Offshore WA

Santos

Shell Woodside ExxonMobil Woodside

Largest projects are located offshore WA

VERY limited large scale offshore gas

resources on the EAST COAST

25% sold to Woodside for US$250m

Australia’s largest offshore undeveloped projects (TCF)

8.33-20% sold to

PetroChina for US$1.63bn 17.5% sold to Inpex

10

Page 11: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 11

T/49P NW SHELF COMPARISON

― T/49P is a large block located

in a similar geological setting

to the prolific NW Shelf gas

trend

― Both are charged from late

Tertiary loading, post

Oligocene

― Examples of proven gas

fields resulting from this

system are Goodwyn of the

Carnarvon Basin and

Thylacine in the Otway Basin

Geological cross section through Carnarvon Basin

Tertiary

wedge

T/49P

Tertiary

wedge

Geological cross section through southern Otway Basin

Seal Rocks

Lead

Page 12: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 12

OFFSHORE OTWAY BASIN MODELLING

• This migration scenario

aimed to test a likely case

that hydrocarbons generated

from a mixture of clastic and

coal source rocks throughout

the upper 500m of the

Eumeralla

• These SRs have provided

hydrocarbons to the existing

fields and mapped

leads/prospects within

T/49P

• In this model, all structures

are full to either structural

spill or top-seal capacity (set

at 500m)

Migration Model

Flanagan

7.6 TCF

Thylacine

5.6 TCF

Seal Rocks

13.7 TCF

Whistler Point

1.8 TCF

British Admiral

1.5 TCF

Munro

1.9 TCF

Labella

2.4 TCF

Gas Expelled between 0-25Ma

Page 13: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 13

FLANAGAN PROSPECT SUMMARY

• The Flanagan Prospect is a Late Cretaceous structure that was formed by NE-SW extension and later

segmented by NE trending trans-tension.

• The Prospect is nearby and analogous, to the to the largest Otway Basin gas fields, Thylacine and

Geographe.

• Supported by a Type III AVO anomaly,

• Flanagan is drill ready;

• located in less than 100m of water,

• best estimate of 1.4 TCF recoverable,

• near to existing infrastructure and,

• well positioned to take advantage of Australia’s East coast Gas Market.

N S

Cross-Section through the Western side of the prospect

Page 14: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 14

FLANAGAN PROSPECT AMPLITUDE ANALYSIS

Flanagan

Nears versus

Fars Anomalies

Page 15: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 15

SEAL ROCKS LEAD SUMMARY

Low amplitude facies, Late

Santonian and Campanian

marine shales.

O.porifera Eumeralla

Basement

Multiple High and Low amplitude

seismic facies. Indication of stacked

sand / shale sets within Flaxmans

and Waarre reservoir section

A B

C D

Fault Block Block A Block B Block C Block D Block E Total

Number of levels (250m column) 1 Sand Level 2 Sand Levels 3 Sand Levels 3 Sand Levels 2 Sand Levels Stacked Case GIIP (TCF) 2.09 3.03 4.90 2.58 3.04 15.63 Stacked Case Recoverable (TCF) 1.15 1.67 2.69 1.42 1.67 8.60

― Seal Rocks is a large lead at the Thylacine Mbr level consisting

of a series of tilted fault blocks in the south of T/49P

― Top Seal is provided by Santonian marine shales that are

intersected in nearby wells in the offshore Otway Basin (notably

at Thylacine, Geographe and Labella) and appear as a low

amplitude seismic facies

― Examples of proven gas fields resulting from this system are

Goodwyn of the Carnarvon Basin and Thylacine in the Otway

Basin

Page 16: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 16

A development at Flanagan could be highly economic based on Worley Parsons analysis, even

with conservative development and pricing scenarios

― 3D Oil commissioned an economic study by Worley

Parsons in 2017 to assess a development at Flanagan

• Best Estimate Prospective Resources at Flanagan

are 1.34TCF (or 237mmboe1)

• Flanagan is a small proportion of total T/49P

prospective resources of 10TCF (Best Estimate)

― Economic assessment highlighted significant upside:

• NPV = A$541m (at 10% discount rate, pre-tax)

• IRR = 33.4% (pre-tax)

• From only 600BCF recovered and at a conservative

sale price of A$6/MCF

― A tie-in development was considered where a subsea

well at Flanagan is tied in to Lattice Energy’s Thylacine-

Geographe infrastructure

• Total pre-production capex estimate of A$539m

• Conservative economic analysis based on stand

alone development and excluding condensate

T/49P – POTENTIAL FLANAGAN DEVELOPMENT

-

60

120

180

240

300

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036

Capex Opex

-

30

60

90

120

150

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036

Flanagan NPV assessment Production forecast (mmcfd)

Expenditure forecast (A$m)

16

Notes:

1 Converted from boe to cubic feet using SPE conversion factor of 5.66

Page 17: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 17

T/49P – SEISMIC PREPARATION

Preparation has commenced for 3D seismic acquisition planned for late 2018

― Focus for 3D seismic is the central and southern part of T/49P

• Design parameters for the acquisition have been agreed

subject to securing a farm-in partner and funding

• Estimated costs of A$10m

― 3D seismic survey will target a series of significant leads

• Intention is to mature several of these to prospect status

• Insight from the new data will be combined with that gleaned

from 3D Oil’s existing seismic database of the region

― One of the key leads to be targeted by the seismic program is

the Harbinger lead, supported by a Type III AVO anomaly,

indicating gas

• Independent analysis estimated that Harbinger contains 790

BCF Best Estimate Prospective Resources

― Another target for 3D seismic acquisition is the Seal Rocks

lead, with a Best Estimate Prospective Resource of over 4 TCF

― Following successful completion, the seismic data is expected to

help determine the location of the exploration well

• Exploration well is currently planned for the CY 2019

Seismic overview Target areas

17

Flanagan

Whistler Point

British Admiral

Seal Rocks

Munro

Harbinger

Page 18: T/49P Southern Offshore Otway Basin

Page 18

CONTACTS

Noel Newell

Executive Chairman

3D Oil Limited

Level 18, 41 Exhibition Street

Melbourne, Victoria 3000

Phone: +61 3 9650 9866

Mob: +61 419 897 097

Email: [email protected]

Brochure available at Australian Government booth


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