Tailored climate indices for DRR

(infrastructure)

Elena AkentyevaMain Geophysical Observatory,

ST. PETERSBURG, RF

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Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) is a scientific unit of Roshydromet that researches impacts of climate change on infrastructure including energy sector, transport, oil and gas pipelines, and building construction. Costs and benefits of adaptation options are estimated on the basis of risk assessment and probabilities.

The effort is directed to quantify physical impacts of climate change for above-mentioned sectors. MGO fulfills this research for a long period in collaboration with end users.

As a result the systems of tailored climate products or impact indexes were created. Expected deviations of these indexes express change of climate conditions and can be used when adaptation measures are working out.

Presented results include examples of general and tailored climate indexes for infrastructure and their observed and expected changes. These projected indexes were generated using the ensemble of 16 global climate models of IPCC as well as MGO regional climate model (A2 scenario )

“The tree” of power industry and appropriate general climate impact indexes

«The tree» of climate resources for building construction

Building durability(Number of days with thaws and frosts,

annual and diurnal run of air temperatureand humidity)

Construction works(wind speed > 10 m/s by subzero

air temperature, gust speed > 12 и >15 m/s)

Specific projecting

Architectural planning (Reidat diagram, “penetrating”rains, prevalent wind direction)

Building location(Solar radiance duration, wind speed “rose,

microclimate air temperature map)

Air temperature impact(Mean monthly air temperature

in January and July, air temperature quantiles)

Wind load(squared wind speed quantiles, air density, gust parameters)

Loads and impactsSnow loads

(snow cover thicknessquantiles)

Ice load(Ice loads quantiles)

Building heatregime

Protecting constructions(Coldest day and five days air

temperature 0,98 and 0,92 quantiles,number of degree days)

Heating(heating period duration and airtemperature, radiation balance

of windows and walls)Heating, ventilation,air conditioning systems(Air temperature, enthalpy

moisture quantiles)

“The tree” of building construction and appropriate general climate impact indexes

“The tree” of health protection and appropriate climate impact indexes

Climate and Energy (tailored climate indexes)

Climate and Building (tailored climate indexes)

Tailored climate indices included in Building codes (examples):

Climate indices of the cold period:

•Air temperature of the coldest 5 days and twenty-four hours 92th and 98th percentiles;

•Daily temperature range in the coldest month, 0С;

•Annual count of days when the mean daily temperature < 0, 8, 10 0С; mean air temperature of these periods;

•Average relative humidity at 3 pm in the coldest month, %;

•Annual precipitation sums (separately liquid, solid, mixed) in cold period (November-March), mm;

•Wind speed 80th percentiles in the heating period, m/s;

•Annual count of days with wind speed more than 10 m/s in subsero weather

Climate indices of warm period:

• Long-term average of station pressure; •Daily air temperature 99th, 98th , 96th , 95th percentiles;

•Long-term average of annual daily maximal air temperature, 0С;

•Absolute maximal air temperature, 0С;

•Daily temperature range in the hottest month, 0С;

•Average relative humidity in the hottest month, %;

•Average relative humidity at 3 pm in the hottest month, %;

•Annual precipitation sums (separately (separately liquid, solid, mixed) in warm period (April-Oktober), mm;

• Maximum one-day rainfall, mm;

Tailored climate indexes for separating of homogeneous climate regions (building zoning):

•Long-term average of absolute annual minimal air temperature, 0С;

•Long-term average of absolute annual maximal air temperature, 0С;

•Coldest and hottest month averages, 0С;

•Average wind speed of three cold months, m/s;

•Average relative humidity at 1 pm in the hottest month, %

PROJECTED CHANGES OF THE COLDEST 24-HOUR PERIOD TEMPERATURE BY 2015 (0С)

The coldest 24-hour temperature 92th percentile

1960-2000 (A);

2090-2100 (B)

Probable increase of periods with air temperature higher than +250С (days) by 2015

PROJECTED REDUCTION OF THE HEATING PERIOD DURATION OVER TERRITORY OF RUSSIA BY 2015 (days)

RIVER BASIN,

REGION

PROJECTED CHANGES

OF THE RIVER FLOW

BY MID-21ST CENTURY

(%)

PROJECTED CHANGES OF

THE TOTAL

HYDROPOWER RESURSES

BY MID-21ST CENTURY (%)

The Yenisei 10 + 6 4 + 2

The Lena 17+ 7 7+ 3

The Chukchi

Peninsula15 + 8

6 + 3

Western Siberia 11+ 4 4 + 2

Eastern Siberia 14+ 5 5 + 2

RF 11+ 3 4 + 1

River flow and hydropower resources

PROJECTED CHANGES OF THE TOTAL HYDROPOWER RESURSES

BY MID-21ST CENTURY (%)

Tailored climate indices for over–normative loads estimation

Dangerousweather

event and climate

anomaly

Thunderstorm

Windspeed

> 20

m/c

Air tempe-rature

< – 300С

Air tempe-rature

<– 400С

Whirlwind

Complex:

Wind speed > 15 m/с, > 22 m/с, > 35 m/с;

air temperature < -250С, < - 300С, < – 400С

Risk 3*10-5 10-5 2*10-5 10-6 10-7

Fuzzy set method

High weather and climate related risk(with confidence 0,48);Medium weather and climate related risk; (with confidence 0,52)

Risk assessment of dangerous weather events and climate anomalies for oil and gas industry (example)

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Projected changes of annual count of days with icing hazard (complex: air temperature from +2 to - 30С, precipitation day) by 2046-2065 relative to 1981-2000 (days)

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Conclusion

Tailored climate indices for DRR in infrastructure include:

Daily temperature, precipitation, wind speed values more (less) than specific percentiles (e.g. 92, 98, 99,9 etc)

Exceedance probability of threshold values of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity (e.g. daily temperature: + 25, 30, 35, 400C, daily precipitation sum: 30, 50 mm etc. )

Conditional and two-dimensional probabilities of specific temperature-humidity and wind-temperature complexes

Temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity values more (less) than specific percentiles for non-standard time periods (e.g. work hours)

Complex climate indexes that include parameters of specific objects (effective temperature, equivalent wind speed

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Thank you Thank you

for your attention! for your attention!