Please refer to page 12 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
TAIWAN
Top June picks
Buy Sell
Tech Hon Hai (2317 TT) Hiwin (2049 TT) Non tech Basso (1527 TT) Eclat (1476 TT) Fin E. Sun (2884 TT) Mega FHC (2886 TT)
Source: Macquarie Research, June 2017
QFII monthly fund flow (2016-2017 YTD)
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017
May Taiwan key reports:
Taiwan financials - Rebalance, reform and reflation
Hiwin Technologies - Downgrading into peaking growth
Accton Technology - 1Q OPM beat; upgrading to OP
King Slide Works - Take a breather
Alpha Networks - Buy on execution
Acer - PC market stabilizing + share gains
Analyst(s) Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch Jeffrey Ohlweiler +886 2 2734 7512 [email protected] Corinne Jian, CFA +886 2 2734 7522 [email protected] Dexter Hsu +886 2 2734 7530 [email protected] Patrick Liao +886 2 2734 7515 [email protected] Marcus Yang +886 2 2734 7532 [email protected] Louis Cheng, CFA +886 2 2734 7526 [email protected] Kaylin Tsai +886 2 2734 7523 [email protected] Benson Pan +886 2 2734 7527 [email protected] Lynn Luo +886 227347534 [email protected] Macquarie Capital Limited Stella Li +86 21 2412 9008 [email protected] Allen Chang +852 3922 1136 [email protected] Verena Jeng +852 3922 3766 [email protected] Howard Li +852 3922 1497 [email protected]
2 June 2017
Taiwan Strategy Foreign inflow streak continues Tech continues to outperform, NT$ continues to appreciate
We caution more downside risk to the market short-term from current levels
as: (1) we are at the top of the market trading range, coming off 5 months in a
row of foreign buying, (2) June-November is the historically the weakest
period for TAIEX performance, and (3) a strong NT$ is putting 2017 earnings
growth at risk (12%+ consensus EPS growth has downside risk). Reason to
not be alarmed (which should limit our expected market pullback) –
reasonable valuations at 14x 2017E consensus (vs 7-year average of 16x)
and positive outlook for both the semiconductor and iPhone cycle in 2017/18.
The TAIEX was up again in May (+1.7%) with tech outperforming and the NT$
appreciating (+7% YTD) every month YTD.
Sector overview and June top picks
Tech: We continue to expect Taiwan tech to outperform in 2017 driven by:
1) 12% semiconductor growth in 2017 (after 2 flat years – biggest upside from
memory prices), 2) good iPhone cycle (that should last into 2018), and
3) continued spending and growth in the automation and auto electronics
sectors (Taiwan tech up 15% YTD vs TAIEX up 9%). We retain our negative
outlook on the LCD industry. Top tech longs: Hon Hai, TSMC, Powertech,
Global Wafers, Ennoconn, CHPT, Win Semi, Chroma, CUB, and Elite
Materials. Top tech shorts: Largan, Advantech, AUO, TPK, Bizlink, HTC and
Hiwin.
Non-tech: We saw more results misses from US apparel/sportswear brands/
retailers, supporting our negative view on Taiwan textile & footwear sector.
Chemical product price declines since March also support our underweight
view on Taiwan Petrochem sector (earnings cycle peaked in 2016). On the
contrary, strong results of Home Depot, Stanley Black & Decker and housing
prices have positive implications to our top pick, Basso. In 2017, we continue
to suggest to stay defensive in Taiwan non-tech, preferring companies with
quality growth stories, lower valuations and good dividend yields. Top non-
tech longs: Basso, PChome, Giant, Uni-President and Poya. Top non-tech
shorts: Eclat, Feng Tay, and FPCC.
Financials / economy: We believe Taiwan will go through several structural
changes, including normalization of factor prices like wages, living costs and
utility prices, combined with fiscal stimulus and reforms. As a result, we
believe these changes could lead to domestic reflation and the monetary
policy could turn tighter. Thus, we believe USD/TWD could stay range-bound
at NT$30 and expect the central bank to start raising rates from 4Q17 and
have two more rate hikes in 2018. We believe revenue growth will come back
from off-balance-sheet business to on-balance-sheet, and deposit franchises
will start to matter. We expect loan growth in TWD and foreign currencies to
recover, albeit for different reasons. We also expect NIM to hit the bottom and
start to rebound amid the tightening cycle. After wealth management fees
have stabilized after regulatory changes, we expect fee income to grow again,
driven by credit cards. We reiterate our preference for private banks like
E.Sun and CTBC while we prefer Cathay in the life insurance universe. Top
financials short: Mega.
-150-100
-500
50100150200
(NT$bn)
QFII monthly fund flow
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
2 June 2017 2
Analysis
Fig 1 Macquarie Taiwan top buy and short picks
Mkt Cap CP TP TSR Ticker Company Rating (US$m) (LC) (LC) (%)
Top Buy
Tech 2330 TT TSMC O 179,911 209.0 215.0 6% 2317 TT Hon Hai (*) O 60,691 105.5 150.0 48% 6239 TT Powertech O 2,372 91.7 117.0 33% 6488 TT GlobalWafers O 3,607 248.5 300.0 23% 6510 TT CHPT O 1,411 1,380.0 1500.0 10% 3105 TT Win Semi O 1,845 138.0 155.0 16% 6414 TT Ennoconn Corp O 963 380.0 453.0 22% 2360 TT Chroma O 1,282 95.3 111.0 21% 2231 TT CUB O 1,043 341.5 385.0 16% 2383 TT Elite Material O 1,313 124.0 145.0 22%
Non-Tech 8044 TT PChome Online (*) O 861 235.0 290.0 25% 1527 TT Basso Industry O 396 86.5 168.0 100% 9921 TT Giant Manufacturing O 2,204 177.0 205.0 18% 1216 TT UPE O 11,318 60.0 70.0 21% 5904 TT Poya O 1,356 423.5 500.0 21%
Financial 2891 TT CTBC Holding O 12,492 19.3 22.0 20% 2884 TT E.Sun FHC O 5,860 18.7 22.0 21% 2882 TT Cathay FHC O 19,831 47.6 53.6 17%
Top Short
Tech 3008 TT Largan U 21,575 4,845.0 2600.0 -45% 2395 TT Advantech U 5,203 247.5 183.0 -23% 2409 TT AUO U 3,786 11.9 7.4 -34% 3673 TT TPK U 1,110 96.5 72.0 -25% 3665 TT Bizlink U 757 221.5 137.0 -35% 2498 TT HTC U 1,951 71.5 50.0 -30% 2049 TT Hiwin U 1,856 203.5 156.0 -22%
Non-Tech 1476 TT Eclat Textile U 2,911 326.0 200.0 -36% 9910 TT Feng Tay U 2,683 121.0 91.0 -20% 6505 TT FPCC U 33,521 106.0 93.0 -8%
Financial 2886 TT Mega FHC U 11,016 24.4 19.0 -16%
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2017 Close price based on 2 June 2017 * Also in Macquarie Marquee buy/short idea list
TAIEX in June – ten-year average down 1.6%
Over the past ten years, June returns of the TAIEX have averaged down 1.6% (3 up and 7 down
years). Historically, the TAIEX after May is followed by 5 of the next 6 months down (on average –
July being the outlier).
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
2 June 2017 3
Fig 2 Taiex trend 2010-2017 YTD (a range-bound market)
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017
Fig 3 Relative performance (re Taiex) by sectors, 2015 vs. 2016 and 2017 May Fig 4 Sector fund flow (2015 vs. 2016 and 2017 Apr)
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017 Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017
Fig 5 Non-tech subsector share price performance (re Taiex), 2017 YTD
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Non-Tech Financial Tech
2015 2016 2017 May
(20.0)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Tech Non-tech Financial
(NT$bn)
2015 2016 2017 May
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Pa
per
and P
ulp
To
urism
Au
tom
obile
Fo
ods
Sh
ipp
ing &
Tra
ns
Ele
c. M
achin
ery
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Cons
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Ga
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lec
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c. &
Cable
Gla
ss &
Cera
mic
s
Tra
din
g &
Cons.
Cem
ent
Iron a
nd S
teel
Te
xitle
s
Rubber
Pla
stics
Chem
. B
iote
ch
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
2 June 2017 4
Fig 6 QFII monthly fund flow Fig 7 QFII monthly fund flow (2016-2017 YTD)
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017 Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017
Fig 8 QFII holdings Fig 9 QFII holdings – Tech/Non-tech/Financial
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017 Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017
Fig 10 Taiwan dividend yields 2005-2017 by tech/non-tech/financials Fig 11 Trading PE (x) by subsectors
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017 Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
(NT$bn)
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
(NT$bn)
QFII monthly fund flow
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
(%)
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
(%)
Tech Non-tech Financial
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(%)
Taiex Tech Non-tech Financial
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
20
11
/01
20
11
/04
20
11
/07
20
11
/10
20
12
/01
20
12
/04
20
12
/07
20
12
/10
20
13
/01
20
13
/04
20
13
/07
20
13
/10
20
14
/01
20
14
/04
20
14
/07
20
14
/10
20
15
/01
20
15
/04
20
15
/07
20
15
/10
20
16
/01
20
16
/04
20
16
/07
20
16
/10
20
17
/01
20
17
/04
Tech Non-tech Financial
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
2 June 2017 5
Fig 12 NT$ / US$ Exchange Rate Fig 13 Currency Movement
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2017
Fig 14 GDP growth (YoY) Fig 15 Export growth rate (YoY)
Source: DGBAS, Macquarie Research, June 2017 Source: DGBAS, Macquarie Research, June 2017
Fig 16 Global semiconductor revenue growth Fig 17 Taiwan semiconductor revenue growth
Source: WSTS, Macquarie Research, June 2017
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2017 Note: Taiwan Semiconductor revenue includes: TSMC, UMC, ASE, SPIL.
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
USDTWD Curncy
dep
reciation
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Dec/09 Dec/10 Dec/11 Dec/12 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/16
TWD KRW JPY CNY
0.70%
-1.57%
10.63%
3.80%
2.06% 2.20%
4.02%
0.72%1.40%
2.05%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
DGBAS forecast
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
(%)
Export growth in NTD Export growth in USD
-2%
5%
10%
0%
1%
12%
5%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Global Semiconductor revenue growth
12%
16%
23%
9%7%
3%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Taiwan Semiconductor revenue growth
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
2 June 2017 6
Fig 18 One-year deposit rate (1985-present) Fig 19 One-year deposit rate (2015-present)
Source: DGBAS, TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017 Source: DGBAS, TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017
Fig 20 Retail Sales Fig 21 Consumer Confidence Index
Source: MOEA, TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017 Source: DGBAS, TEJ, Macquarie Research, June 2017
Fig 22 Mainland visitors to TW and YoY – annual data
Fig 23 Mainland visitors to TW and YoY – monthly data
Source: Taiwan Tourism, Macquarie Research, June 2017 Source: Taiwan Tourism, Macquarie Research, June 2017
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
(%)
One-year time deposit rate
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
(%)
One-year time deposit rate
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17
(NT$bn)
Retail sales yoy growth - 3MMA - (RHS)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Consumer confidence index
May-17: 78.11
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Mainland visitors to TW YoY (RHS)
K people
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
May
-14
Jul-14
Se
p-1
4
Nov-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
May
-15
Jul-15
Se
p-1
5
Nov-1
5
Jan
-16
Ma
r-1
6
May
-16
Jul-16
Se
p-1
6
Nov-1
6
Jan
-17
people
Mainland visitors to Taiwan YoY (RHS)
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
2 June 2017 7
Fig 24 Plant production location and sales to the US market (analysts’ estimates)
A – by highest exposure to products exported to the US B – by highest expose to China production base
Plant location Sales to the Plant location Sales to the
Company Ticker Taiwan China RoW US market Company Ticker Taiwan China RoW US market
Eclat 1476 TT 25% 0% 75% 80% Quanta 2382 TT 0% 100% 0% 35% Makalot 1477 TT 0% 7% 93% 80% Wistron 3231 TT 0% 100% 0% 35% Toung Loong Textile 4401 TT 95% 0% 5% 80% Pegatron 4938 TT 0% 95% 5% 40% Feng Tay 9910 TT 0% 14% 86% 80% Alpha Network 3380 TT 10% 90% 0% 43% CUB 2231 TT 80% 20% 0% 70% Topkey 4536 TT 10% 90% 0% 40% Wistron Neweb 6285 TT 25% 75% 0% 55% Catcher 2474 TT 10% 90% 0% 34% Basso 1527 TT 100% 0% 0% 50% GIS 6456 TT 10% 90% 0% 33% King Slide 2059 TT 100% 0% 0% 45% AirTAC 1590 TT 10% 90% 0% 2% Accton 2345 TT 15% 85% 0% 45% Asia Cement 1102 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% AIDC 2634 TT 100% 0% 0% 45% Yungtay 1507 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% Alpha Network 3380 TT 10% 90% 0% 43% Ton Yi 9907 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% Pegatron 4938 TT 0% 95% 5% 40% Accton 2345 TT 15% 85% 0% 45% Topkey 4536 TT 10% 90% 0% 40% Taiwan Cement 1101 TT 15% 85% 0% 0% TSMC 2330 TT 92% 5% 3% 35% Inventec 2356 TT 0% 80% 20% 35% Inventec 2356 TT 0% 80% 20% 35% Compal 2324 TT 0% 80% 20% 30% Quanta 2382 TT 0% 100% 0% 35% Hon Hai 2317 TT 0% 80% 20% 20% Wistron 3231 TT 0% 100% 0% 35% Tung Thih 3552 TT 20% 80% 0% 8% FTC 1434 TT 16% 48% 36% 35% Wistron Neweb 6285 TT 25% 75% 0% 55% EVA Air 2618 TT 100% 0% 0% 35% BizLink 3665 TT 0% 60% 40% 33% Catcher 2474 TT 10% 90% 0% 34% Epistar 2448 TT 40% 60% 0% 23% BizLink 3665 TT 0% 60% 40% 33% Delta 2308 TT 15% 60% 25% 15% GIS 6456 TT 10% 90% 0% 33% Giant 9920 TT 45% 50% 5% 27% ASE 2311 TT 48% 44% 8% 30% Advantech 2395 TT 50% 50% 0% 25% Compal 2324 TT 0% 80% 20% 30% Ginko 8406 TT 50% 50% 0% 0% Acer 2353 TT na na na 30% FTC 1434 TT 16% 48% 36% 35% TPK 3673 TT 95% 5% 0% 27% ASE 2311 TT 48% 44% 8% 30% China Air 2610 TT 100% 0% 0% 27% Everlight 2393 TT 60% 40% 0% 23% Giant 9920 TT 45% 50% 5% 27% FENC 1402 TT 65% 35% 0% 7% Merida 9921 TT 70% 30% 0% 27% Merida 9921 TT 70% 30% 0% 27% UMC 2303 TT 69% 12% 19% 25% CUB 2231 TT 80% 20% 0% 70% SPIL 2325 TT 88% 12% 0% 25% NPC 1303 TT 76% 16% 8% 12% Advantech 2395 TT 50% 50% 0% 25% FCFC 1326 TT 84% 16% 0% 12% HTC 2498 TT 95% 5% 0% 25% FPC 1301 TT 85% 15% 0% 12% Everlight 2393 TT 60% 40% 0% 23% Feng Tay 9910 TT 0% 14% 86% 80% Epistar 2448 TT 40% 60% 0% 23% UMC 2303 TT 69% 12% 19% 25% Largan 3008 TT 90% 10% 0% 22% SPIL 2325 TT 88% 12% 0% 25% Hon Hai 2317 TT 0% 80% 20% 20% KYEC 2449 TT 88% 12% 0% 15% Asustek 2357 TT na na na 20% Largan 3008 TT 90% 10% 0% 22% Delta 2308 TT 15% 60% 25% 15% Transcend 2451 TT 90% 10% 0% 15% Chroma 2360 TT 100% 0% 0% 15% Powertech 6239 TT 88% 10% 2% 15% KYEC 2449 TT 88% 12% 0% 15% AUO 2409 TT 85% 10% 5% 10% Transcend 2451 TT 90% 10% 0% 15% Hiwin 2049 TT 80% 10% 10% 7% Powertech 6239 TT 88% 10% 2% 15% CTCI 9933 TT 85% 10% 5% 3% Innolux 3481 TT 95% 5% 0% 12% Makalot 1477 TT 0% 7% 93% 80% FPC 1301 TT 85% 15% 0% 12% TSMC 2330 TT 92% 5% 3% 35% NPC 1303 TT 76% 16% 8% 12% TPK 3673 TT 95% 5% 0% 27% FCFC 1326 TT 84% 16% 0% 12% HTC 2498 TT 95% 5% 0% 25% FPCC 6505 TT 100% 0% 0% 12% Innolux 3481 TT 95% 5% 0% 12% Nanya Tech 2408 TT 100% 0% 0% 10% Eclat 1476 TT 25% 0% 75% 80% AUO 2409 TT 85% 10% 5% 10% TLT 4401 TT 95% 0% 5% 80% Phison 8299 TT 100% 0% 0% 10% Basso 1527 TT 100% 0% 0% 50% Tung Thih 3552 TT 20% 80% 0% 8% King Slide 2059 TT 100% 0% 0% 45% Hiwin 2049 TT 80% 10% 10% 7% AIDC 2634 TT 100% 0% 0% 45% Mediatek 2454 TT na na na 7% EVA Air 2618 TT 100% 0% 0% 35% FENC 1402 TT 65% 35% 0% 7% China Air 2610 TT 100% 0% 0% 27% Vanguard 5347 TT 100% 0% 0% 3% Chroma 2360 TT 100% 0% 0% 15% St Shine 1565 TT 100% 0% 0% 3% FPCC 6505 TT 100% 0% 0% 12% CTCI 9933 TT 85% 10% 5% 3% Nanya Tech 2408 TT 100% 0% 0% 10% AirTAC 1590 TT 10% 90% 0% 2% Phison 8299 TT 100% 0% 0% 10% PChome 9922 TT 100% 0% 0% 2% Vanguard 5347 TT 100% 0% 0% 3% Taiwan Cement 1101 TT 15% 85% 0% 0% St Shine 1565 TT 100% 0% 0% 3% Asia Cement 1102 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% PChome 9922 TT 100% 0% 0% 2% Yungtay 1507 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% Taiwan SECOM 9917 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Ginko 8406 TT 50% 50% 0% 0% Momo 9923 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Ton Yi 9907 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% Addcn 9924 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Taiwan SECOM 9917 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Kerry TJ 9925 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Momo 9923 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Acer 2353 TT na na na 30% Addcn 9924 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Asustek 2357 TT na na na 20% Kerry TJ 9925 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Mediatek 2454 TT na na na 7%
Source: Companies, Macquarie Research, June 2017
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
2 June 2017 8
Fig 25 Valuation comparison - Tech
Mkt Cap Last TP TSR EPS (local $/¢) PER (X) P/BV (X) ROE (%) Div yield (%)
Ticker Company Reco. (US$m) Close (NTD) (%) 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E
Tech 20.5 16.7 14.1 3.2 2.6 2.4 16.1 16.5 17.3 3.6 4.1 4.5 Semiconductor 23.9 20.1 14.7 3.5 2.6 2.3 17.0 15.1 17.1 3.4 3.6 4.4 2330 TT TSMC O 179,911 209.0 215.0 6% 12.89 13.19 15.18 16.1 15.7 13.6 3.9 3.6 3.2 25.6 23.6 24.6 3.4 3.4 4.0 2311 TT ASE O 10,606 38.8 42.5 14% 2.73 2.63 3.18 14.2 14.7 12.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 12.8 11.9 13.6 3.7 4.3 5.2 6239 TT Powertech O 2,372 91.7 117.0 33% 6.20 8.30 9.74 14.7 11.0 9.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 13.9 17.5 19.3 4.4 5.8 6.9 2449 TT KYEC O 1,155 29.7 32.0 14% 2.56 2.58 3.32 11.5 11.4 8.8 1.4 1.4 1.3 12.9 12.5 15.2 6.1 6.2 7.9 6488 TT GlobalWafers O 3,607 248.5 300.0 23% 2.54 7.40 14.99 95.7 32.9 16.2 5.7 3.4 2.9 5.8 13.0 19.3 1.2 1.8 4.4 6415 TT Silergy O 1,615 579.0 595.0 4% 18.60 23.15 29.75 31.2 25.0 19.5 6.9 5.8 4.8 25.3 25.1 26.7 1.2 1.4 1.8 2408 TT Nanya Tech O 4,891 53.6 63.0 21% 8.63 6.04 7.88 6.0 8.5 6.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 33.8 18.1 20.3 2.9 3.4 3.4 6510 TT CHPT O 1,411 1380.0 1500.0 10% 20.05 29.20 44.73 68.8 47.3 30.8 15.6 7.6 6.4 22.3 21.0 22.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 3105 TT Win Semi O 1,845 138.0 155.0 16% 7.30 8.10 10.30 18.4 16.6 13.1 3.1 2.8 2.5 17.9 17.7 20.3 0.5 3.3 3.5 2454 TT MediaTek N 12,286 234.0 200.0 -10% 15.16 14.30 17.68 15.0 15.9 12.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 9.8 9.0 10.7 4.2 4.1 5.0 2303 TT UMC N 5,197 12.4 11.4 -6% 0.67 0.57 0.51 18.4 21.7 24.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.2 5347 TT Vanguard N 3,112 57.2 54.0 0% 3.38 2.91 3.16 17.0 19.8 18.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 19.7 16.6 17.7 5.2 5.2 5.2 2325 TT SPIL N 5,235 50.6 43.0 -12% 3.19 2.46 3.07 15.9 20.6 16.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 14.5 11.4 13.6 3.5 2.7 3.3 8299 TT Phison N 2,290 350.0 256.0 -22% 24.66 27.97 23.22 13.3 11.7 14.1 2.8 2.5 2.4 22.5 22.7 17.4 4.3 4.9 4.0 Brand/ODM/EMS 14.2 11.2 10.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 10.3 12.2 12.6 5.3 6.2 6.6 2317 TT Hon Hai O 60,691 105.5 150.0 48% 8.52 11.54 13.26 12.3 9.1 7.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 14.3 17.7 18.3 4.1 5.8 6.7 4938 TT Pegatron N 7,975 93.3 91.0 3% 7.49 8.18 9.13 12.4 11.3 10.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 13.0 13.9 14.7 5.4 5.3 5.9 2357 TT Asustek O 7,151 290.0 307.0 12% 25.84 25.67 27.88 11.2 11.3 10.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 11.0 10.3 10.8 5.9 5.8 6.3 2356 TT Inventec O 2,721 22.9 25.7 19% 1.57 1.72 2.14 14.5 13.2 10.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 10.1 11.0 13.3 6.4 6.8 8.5 2324 TT Compal N 3,017 20.6 18.4 -4% 1.88 2.03 2.29 10.9 10.1 8.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 7.8 8.3 9.1 5.9 6.4 7.4 2382 TT Quanta U 8,720 68.0 50.0 -21% 3.93 4.36 4.59 17.4 15.7 14.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 11.4 12.5 12.8 5.1 5.4 5.1 3231 TT Wistron U 2,534 28.8 20.5 -24% 1.20 1.96 2.05 23.6 14.5 13.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 4.4 7.2 7.3 4.2 4.8 5.1 2353 TT Acer N 1,677 16.4 14.6 -8% (1.62) 0.48 0.66 nmf 34.3 24.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 (7.9) 2.6 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.1 2498 TT HTC U 1,951 71.5 50.0 -30% (12.81) (10.43) (5.63) nmf nmf nmf 1.1 1.3 1.4 (18.1) (17.6) (10.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Component 18.3 15.0 13.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 17.4 18.6 18.7 3.4 3.8 4.1 2059 TT King Slide N 1,389 439.0 470.0 9% 16.49 17.38 23.51 26.7 25.3 18.7 4.8 4.4 3.8 18.8 18.2 21.9 1.9 2.0 2.7 3552 TT Tung Thih O 500 178.5 322.0 84% 14.21 15.04 20.52 12.4 11.7 8.6 2.3 1.7 1.3 23.4 16.8 17.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 2231 TT CUB O 1,043 341.5 385.0 16% 11.93 13.23 20.04 28.6 25.8 17.0 9.1 7.6 5.6 36.3 33.0 37.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 2451 TT Transcend O 1,451 101.5 99.0 4% 6.69 7.66 8.26 15.2 13.3 12.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 14.1 15.9 16.6 5.9 6.8 7.3 3189 TT Kinsus O 1,174 79.3 95.0 23% 5.01 5.04 6.77 15.9 15.8 11.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 7.8 7.7 9.8 3.8 3.2 4.3 2393 TT Everlight O 714 48.9 65.0 39% 4.12 4.52 5.31 11.8 10.8 9.2 1.7 1.3 1.2 11.8 13.4 13.6 5.9 5.9 5.9 6456 TT GIS N 2,301 224.0 195.0 -12% 9.36 10.42 12.64 24.0 21.6 17.8 5.7 4.0 3.8 24.4 21.6 21.9 1.4 1.0 1.1 6269 TT Flexium O 1,082 108.5 123.0 17% 8.54 8.79 10.29 12.6 12.2 10.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 14.8 16.0 17.1 3.2 3.2 3.8 2383 TT Elite Material O 1,313 124.0 145.0 22% 8.70 11.09 13.21 14.2 11.1 9.3 3.7 3.1 2.7 27.5 30.6 30.7 3.8 4.8 5.8 4958 TT Zhen Ding N 1,990 74.5 75.0 6% 4.29 7.29 7.51 17.2 10.1 9.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 8.5 14.2 13.4 3.0 5.0 5.2 6285 TT Wistron NeWeb N 1,055 90.0 90.0 4% 5.89 6.24 6.45 15.5 14.6 14.1 2.4 2.3 2.1 16.0 16.1 15.7 4.1 4.2 4.3 2345 TT Accton O 1,239 68.3 73.0 13% 3.51 4.43 4.88 19.4 15.3 13.9 4.1 3.9 3.7 22.2 26.3 27.0 4.6 5.7 6.3 3380 TT Alpha Networks O 386 26.8 27.6 9% 1.40 2.02 2.12 19.1 13.2 12.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 7.2 10.1 10.1 3.9 5.6 5.9 2474 TT Catcher N 8,235 322.0 200.0 -35% 25.34 28.56 30.70 12.6 11.2 10.4 1.9 1.7 1.5 16.1 16.3 15.6 2.5 2.8 3.0 3673 TT TPK U 1,110 96.5 72.0 -25% (4.23) 7.55 6.40 nmf 12.4 14.7 1.1 1.2 1.1 (4.8) 9.1 7.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 2448 TT Epistar U 1,163 32.1 23.3 -27% (3.24) (1.54) (1.55) nmf nmf nmf 0.6 0.7 0.7 (6.6) (3.2) (3.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 3481 TT Innolux U 4,543 13.8 10.4 -23% 0.19 0.92 0.73 73 15 18.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 4.0 3.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 2308 TT Delta U 14,573 169.0 136.0 -16% 7.24 7.95 8.51 23.1 21.0 19.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 15.1 16.1 16.3 3.0 3.3 3.5 3008 TT Largan U 21,575 4845.0 2600.0 -45% 167.75 211.72 228.76 28.1 22.3 20.6 8.4 6.7 5.5 32.5 33.2 29.4 1.3 1.6 1.7 2409 TT AUO U 3,786 11.9 7.4 -34% 0.81 1.25 0.75 14.5 9.5 15.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.9 6.1 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.4 3665 TT Bizlink U 757 221.5 137.0 -35% 9.12 12.25 14.79 24.4 18.2 15.1 4.2 3.1 2.7 18.5 19.5 18.9 2.6 2.7 2.9 Automation/IPC 30.0 23.3 20.9 4.8 4.3 3.9 17.1 19.7 20.2 2.1 2.7 2.9 1590 TT AirTAC O 2,021 340.0 380.0 14% 10.72 15.67 18.98 31.2 21.3 17.6 5.6 4.8 4.2 18.4 24.3 25.6 1.6 2.4 3.0 2360 TT Chroma O 1,282 95.3 111.0 21% 4.56 5.55 6.19 20.6 16.9 15.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 17.3 19.2 20.1 3.5 4.4 4.9 6414 TT Ennoconn Corp O 963 380.0 453.0 22% 14.01 13.08 20.57 27.2 29.1 18.5 4.7 4.6 4.3 22.4 16.3 24.2 2.6 2.4 3.8 2049 TT Hiwin U 1,856 203.5 156.0 -22% 4.88 7.20 8.64 41.6 28.2 23.5 4.0 3.6 3.2 9.6 13.3 14.4 0.8 1.2 1.4 2395 TT Advantech U 5,203 247.5 183.0 -23% 8.97 9.29 10.14 27.5 26.5 24.3 6.2 5.7 5.3 23.4 22.5 22.7 2.6 2.7 2.6
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2017, Priced as of 2 June 2017
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
2 June 2017 9
Fig 26 Valuation comparison – Non-tech/Financial
Mkt Cap Last TP TSR EPS (local $/¢) PER (X) P/BV (X) ROE (%) Div yield (%)
Ticker Company Reco. (US$m) Close (NTD) (%) 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E
Non-Tech 20.5 19.4 16.8 4.1 3.9 3.6 19.8 19.5 20.7 3.8 4.0 4.5 Aerospace 13.9 14.4 12.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 16.9 15.6 16.6 4.3 4.4 5.1 2634 TT AIDC O 1,072 35.6 52.0 50% 2.30 2.60 3.00 15.6 13.7 11.9 2.6 2.3 2.1 17.5 18.1 18.7 2.8 3.8 4.4 4536 TT Topkey Corp N 318 105.5 105.0 5% 8.58 7.00 8.00 12.2 15.0 13.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 16.3 13.2 14.6 5.7 5.0 5.7 Buildings/Construction/Security 18.2 15.4 14.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 10.5 11.1 11.7 4.4 5.5 6.0 1101 TT Taiwan Cement O 4,241 34.6 41.0 25% 1.82 2.44 2.71 18.8 14.1 12.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 6.2 8.1 8.7 4.5 6.0 6.7 1102 TT Asia Cement O 3,097 27.8 34.0 29% 1.29 2.05 2.41 21.2 13.4 11.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 3.2 5.0 5.7 3.8 6.1 7.1 9917 TT Taiwan Secom O 1,338 89.3 105.0 23% 4.66 5.27 5.74 19.1 16.9 15.5 3.7 3.5 3.3 19.4 21.2 22.0 4.6 5.2 5.6 1507 TT Yungtay Engineering N 709 52.0 43.0 -13% 3.79 3.00 3.10 13.5 17.1 16.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 13.1 10.4 10.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 Industrial 18.0 15.5 13.2 4.4 4.0 3.6 24.1 26.1 27.6 4.4 5.3 6.2 1527 TT Basso Industry O 396 86.5 168.0 100% 6.88 8.50 10.20 12.3 10.0 8.3 3.2 2.7 2.3 26.3 29.3 30.2 4.8 6.0 7.2 8464 TT Nien Made Enterprise N 3,035 312.0 292.0 -3% 12.59 14.15 16.81 24.6 21.9 18.4 7.9 7.1 6.3 32.9 34.1 36.3 3.2 3.7 4.5 9933 TT CTCI N 1,250 49.4 50.0 7% 2.91 3.40 3.85 17.0 14.5 12.8 2.2 2.1 2.1 13.0 14.9 16.3 5.3 6.2 7.0 Petrochem 12.3 16.8 16.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 18.5 12.8 13.0 5.5 4.2 4.3 1301 TT Formosa Plastics N 18,871 89.3 88.0 3% 6.19 5.90 6.00 14.4 15.2 14.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 13.1 11.8 11.7 5.1 4.9 5.0 6505 TT FPCC U 33,521 106.0 93.0 -8% 7.95 5.70 5.90 13.3 18.5 17.9 3.3 3.3 3.2 26.3 17.6 18.0 5.7 4.4 4.5 1303 TT Nan Ya Plastics U 18,772 71.3 59.0 -14% 6.16 4.30 4.40 11.6 16.6 16.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 14.7 10.0 9.8 4.6 3.2 3.3 1326 TT FCFC U 17,414 89.5 84.0 -1% 7.48 6.00 6.30 12.1 15.1 14.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 14.5 10.9 11.3 6.2 5.0 5.2 Conglomerates 17.8 13.8 12.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 4.5 5.5 6.0 3.6 4.5 5.0 1402 TT FENC O 4,354 24.5 32.5 37% 1.18 1.50 1.70 20.6 16.2 14.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 3.3 4.2 4.9 3.3 3.9 4.5 1434 TT Formosa Taffeta O 1,734 31.0 35.2 19% 2.07 2.70 2.95 15.0 11.5 10.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 5.8 6.7 7.1 3.9 5.1 5.5 Textile & Footwear 19.7 20.6 17.8 4.8 4.6 4.3 25.9 23.7 25.3 4.2 4.1 4.7 4401 TT Toung Loong Textile N 337 84.5 76.0 -5% 4.37 5.10 5.70 19.5 16.7 14.9 4.0 3.7 3.5 20.6 22.9 24.0 4.2 4.9 5.5 1476 TT Eclat Textile U 2,911 326.0 200.0 -36% 13.60 12.20 15.00 23.0 25.7 20.9 5.6 5.4 4.9 27.2 21.4 24.7 3.3 3.0 3.7 9910 TT Feng Tay U 2,683 121.0 91.0 -20% 6.67 7.25 7.90 17.6 16.2 14.9 5.7 5.2 4.7 33.1 33.3 33.1 4.4 4.8 5.2 1477 TT Makalot U 956 139.0 86.0 -34% 7.38 6.85 7.70 18.5 19.9 17.7 3.3 3.3 3.2 17.3 16.5 18.2 4.9 4.6 5.1 Transportation 14.2 17.0 14.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 16.0 12.9 14.3 3.9 3.6 4.2 2608 TT Kerry TJ O 591 38.1 48.0 30% 2.67 2.23 2.61 14.2 17.0 14.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 16.0 12.9 14.3 3.9 3.6 4.2 Ecommerce 27.6 27.5 22.5 5.7 5.7 5.5 21.8 22.7 25.5 3.4 3.4 3.8 5287 TT Addcn O 394 279.0 262.0 -1% 13.04 13.36 14.22 21.6 21.1 19.8 6.4 7.2 7.0 29.8 32.2 35.9 4.1 4.7 5.0 8044 TT PChome Online O 861 235.0 290.0 25% 6.94 6.23 9.66 33.9 37.8 24.4 5.0 4.8 4.3 15.0 12.9 18.6 2.1 1.8 2.8 8454 TT Momo.com N 1,075 228.0 210.0 -4% 8.33 9.69 9.75 27.4 23.5 23.4 5.6 5.3 5.1 20.7 23.0 22.1 4.0 3.6 3.6 Contact lenses 15.5 15.2 14.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 25.7 23.7 23.4 3.8 3.7 3.9 8406 TT Ginko N 757 246.0 250.0 5% 16.37 17.79 18.98 14.5 13.4 12.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 15.1 15.5 15.1 2.9 3.1 3.3 1565 TT St Shine U 974 582.0 490.0 -12% 35.26 33.83 36.60 16.4 17.1 15.8 5.6 5.3 4.7 36.4 31.9 31.6 4.7 4.2 4.6 Bicycles 23.2 22.7 18.0 3.6 3.3 3.1 15.1 15.2 17.8 2.7 2.7 3.4 9914 TT Merida Industry O 1,618 163.0 170.0 7% 6.42 7.15 8.48 25.0 22.5 18.9 3.8 3.5 3.3 15.1 16.4 17.9 2.5 2.8 3.3 9921 TT Giant Manufacturing O 2,204 177.0 205.0 18% 8.17 7.65 10.32 21.5 22.9 17.0 3.3 3.1 2.9 15.2 14.0 17.6 2.8 2.7 3.6 Consumer 29.1 24.7 21.2 7.7 6.9 6.2 26.8 28.5 30.0 2.4 2.8 3.3 1216 TT UPE O 11,318 60.0 70.0 21% 2.56 2.84 3.15 23.3 21.0 18.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 15.2 16.7 17.7 3.5 4.0 4.4 5903 TT Taiwan FamilyMart O 1,534 207.0 250.0 24% 6.17 7.06 8.11 33.6 29.3 25.5 9.3 8.5 7.7 28.6 30.3 31.7 2.4 2.7 3.1 5904 TT Poya O 1,356 423.5 500.0 21% 12.14 14.96 18.20 35.0 28.4 23.3 13.0 11.5 10.2 39.8 43.0 46.2 2.5 3.1 3.8 2723 TT Gourmet Master O 1,682 342.0 390.0 16% 11.75 13.83 16.36 28.9 24.5 20.7 5.8 5.1 4.4 21.5 22.1 22.7 1.4 1.8 2.4 8436 TT TCI Co O 429 171.0 218.0 29% 6.91 8.67 10.89 24.9 19.8 15.8 4.7 4.1 3.4 20.6 21.9 23.5 1.6 2.0 2.5 2912 TT President Chain Store O 9,491 275.0 300.0 12% 9.46 10.71 12.04 28.9 25.5 22.7 9.9 9.0 8.2 35.3 37.1 37.9 2.9 3.3 3.7 Financial 13.1 12.4 11.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 9.4 9.1 9.4 3.9 3.9 3.9 2882 TT Cathay FHC O 19,831 47.6 53.55 17% 3.79 3.56 3.78 12.5 13.3 12.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 9.7 8.4 8.6 4.2 4.2 4.2 2884 TT E.Sun FHC O 5,860 18.7 22.0 21% 1.41 1.64 1.82 13.2 11.3 10.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 10.5 11.0 11.1 2.8 3.1 3.5 2891 TT CTBC Holding O 12,492 19.3 22.0 20% 1.35 1.74 1.81 14.2 11.0 10.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 10.0 11.7 11.7 4.8 6.3 6.6 2881 TT Fubon FHC N 15,678 46.2 49.3 11% 4.73 4.20 4.68 9.7 10.9 9.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 12.4 9.8 10.4 4.4 4.4 3.7 2888 TT Shin Kong FHC N 2,591 7.6 8.15 8% 0.47 0.69 0.80 16.2 11.1 9.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 4.2 5.7 6.3 2.6 1.4 1.6
2823 TT China Life Insurance (Taiwan)
U 3,425 29.7 24.8 -15% 2.67 1.97 2.21 11.0 15.0 13.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 11.6 9.0 9.6 2.7 1.9 2.1
2886 TT Mega FHC U 11,016 24.4 19.0 -16% 1.65 1.73 1.74 14.7 14.0 13.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 7.7 8.0 7.9 5.9 5.8 5.9
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2017, Priced as of 2 June 2017
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Fig 27 Macquarie tech stocks coverage: 2018E P/E vs. subsectors’ growth – Outperforms (in green) and Underperforms (in red)
Source: Macquarie Research, June 2017. Green: Outperform; Red: Underperform; Black: Neutral
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Fig 28 Macquarie non - tech stocks coverage: 2018E P/E vs. subsectors’ Beta – Outperforms (in green) and Underperforms (in red)
Source: Macquarie Research, June 2017. Green: Outperform; Red: Underperform; Black: Neutral
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
2 June 2017 12
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield
Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%
Macquarie – South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%
Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return
Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return
Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return
Volatility index definition*
This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only
Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from
Fundamental Analyst recommendations
Financial definitions
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).
Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 March 2017
AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 47.26% 55.50% 38.46% 45.47% 59.09% 48.21% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.20% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral 38.01% 29.31% 42.86% 48.77% 37.88% 36.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.25% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform 14.73% 15.19% 18.68% 5.76% 3.03% 15.00% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
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This publication was disseminated on 02 June 2017 at 08:58 UTC.