Technology and Society

Dancing with Robots

Learning outcomes

By the end of the session students should be able to:

• Understand the importance of technology as a driver for change and its close relationship with society

• Explain some of the key trends and visions of the future for technology

• Discuss how managers respond to these trends and manage this uncertainty

What is technology?

Not one definition…

1. the application of practical or mechanical sciences to industry or commerce

2. the scientific methods or devices used in a particular field: the latest aircraft technology [Greek tekhnologia systematic treatment]

Collins Essential English Dictionary 2nd Edition 2006, HarperCollins Publisher

Technological trends

Technology is:

• Uncertain - there are always a variety of solutions to perform a specific task

• Cumulative - changes build on previous knowledge– “Technology feeds on itself. Technology makes more

technology possible.” ALVIN TOFFLER, Future Shock, 1970. (Harper, S&S)

• Systemic - technologies cannot be considered in isolation of the supporting technologies that make them and the people and their technique

• Dynamic - constant changing of capital stock and new inventions driven by the ‘competitive nexus’

(Grubler, 1998, Pg 21)

Critical technologies for the future

• NBIC – Nanotechnology (molecular manufacture) e.g. kills

cancer cells, cosmetics, water proofing, ultra strong structures

– Biotechnology (e.g. genetic manipulation - diagnosing breast cancer, enhanced food yield)

– Information technology (e.g. enhanced communication, Data access, manipulation and and retrieval)

– Cognitive science – the science of intelligence (e.g. the brain as a computer)

• GRAIN – genetics, robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology

Four general tendencies of technology are:

• Increasing variety and complexity – e.g. Number of car components– E.g. 1000s varieties of mobile phone– e.g. Moores Law – exponential growth of computer power

• Increasing division of labour specially and functionally– E.g. specialities in developing drugs – how many?

• Increasing interdependence, interrelatedness and externalities– E.g. Interconnections between components and need for

external support• Increasing scale output and productivity

– E.g. mass production, mass customisation

Increasing complexity

Law of accelerating returns

• When ever a technology approaches some kind of barrier, a new technology will be invented to allow us to overcome this barrier

• “This will lead to a technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history”

• Change is exponential• Immortal software-based humans and ultra-high

Levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light

Kurzweil (2005)

Moore’s Law

Kondratiev long waveKondratiev long wave

1212

Electrical engineering and chemistry

Steam engine InformationTechnology

P = Prosperity

R = Recession

D= Depression

I = Improvement

1800

PetrochemicalsAutomobiles

RailwaySteel

1850 1900 20001950

Wave 1 Wave 3Wave 2 Wave 4 Wave 5

P R D I

The six epochs of the universe

Epoch 1 : Physics and chemistry (information in atomic structures)

Epoch 2 : Biology (information in DNA)Epoch 3:Epoch 4 : Technology Hardware and DesignEpoch 5 : Merger of technology and human intelligence are

integrated into the exponentially expanding human technology base

Epoch 6 : The Universe wakes up (patterns and matter and energy in the universe become saturates with intelligent processes and knowledge)

Corderio, based on R.Kurzweil (2005)

Convergencee.g. Breast cancer gene diagnosis

e.g. databases

The emergence of ‘Technological Singularity’

• Merger of Technology and Artificial Intelligence– Within quarter of a century, non-biological intelligence will match

the range and subtlety of human intelligence– It will then soar past it because of information based technology,

instantaneous sharing of knowledge– Intelligent nano-robots will be deeply integrated in our bodies our

brains and environments overcoming pollution and poverty, providing vastly extended longevity, full immersion virtual reality incorporating all of the senses and vastly enhanced human intelligence (Kurzweil (2005)

“Within thirty years we will have the technological means to create super human intelligence. Shortly after the human era will be ended” (Vinge, 1993)

Business responses

• Complexity:– Increased nature of outsourcing of expertise– Collaborative product development– Open innovation (Chesborough, 2003)

• Systems of development become as complex as the products that are developed (co-evolution)

• New product applications and processes

Open Innovation

Societal responses to Technology

Technology shapes society and society shapes technology.

Societal Changes

• Economic growth engines (Drucker, 2007; Schumpter, 1934)

• Improvement of standard of living and quality of life – clean water, sewers, flushing toilets, medicines, entertainment. This had been called ‘appropriate’ technology. (Bhalla, 1978)

• Activity for human endeavour – employment• Improved communication and information• More ‘leisure’ time?...

Societal Impacts

‘The most important and urgent problems of the technology of today are no longer the satisfactions of the primary needs or of archetypal wishes, but the reparation of the evils and damages by technology of yesterday.’

(Gabor,1970)

Societal Impacts

‘By his very success in inventing labour-saving devices, modern man has manufactured an abyss of boredom that only the privileged classes in earlier civilizations have ever fathomed.’

Mumford, L (1951)

Societal Impacts

• Our way of life has been influenced by the way technology has developed. In future, it

seems to me, we ought to try to reverse this and so develop our technology that it

meets the needs of the sort of life we wish to lead.

Prince Philip,1984

Predictability of Technology?

Wild cards, chance discoveries? Serendipity?

There are many wild card events that have taken place in the development of technology

“Chance favours the prepared mind” Louis Pasteur

"When I woke up just after dawn on September 28, 1928, I certainly didn't plan to revolutionize all medicine by discovering the world's first antibiotic, or bacteria killer," Fleming would later say, "But I guess that was exactly what I did."

Penicillin

Wild Cards…

Eg. LSD

"It is true that my discovery of LSD was a chance discovery, but it was the outcome of planned experiments and these experiments took place in the framework of systematic pharmaceutical, chemical research. It could better be described as serendipity." LSD found on a fungus grown on wheat

Can we anticipate technology diffussion?

What happened to the:

• The paperless office?

Did we anticipate the success of the:

• Home computer

• Social Networking

Technology Adoption Cycle

Rodgers, 1962

Technology Backlashes

Back lashes• The Luddites

– ‘someone with a fear of technology’

• Neo-luddism: e.g. anarchists, – eco-facists

E.g. GM Crops

Is that fear irrational or justiied?

Management responses

Open Innovation – Technology Pull

How do technology managers manage the future?

• Technology Strategy– Adopting a strategy towards technology

including selection of product and process technologies to develop

• Foresight and Futures – Technology mapping, Back casting– Convergence Trend analysis and

environmental scanning– Scenario planning

How do managers manage the future?

• Innovation and Product Development; – Products that change us socially have the

greatest impact e.g. car, internet– Increasing use of collaborating: User driven

development, mass customisation

• Improving internal efficiencies– Business intelligence– Mobile technologies

• Product and Service Opportunities

Visions of the Future of Technology

Timelines for the future

Example: BT Futures Group

http://www.btplc.com/Innovation/News/timeline/index.htm

Summary

• Technologies

• Evidently creativity plays a major part of the fullfilment of these

• Managers use a variety of approaches including outsourcing,

Further Reading and References

• Bernard and Jones (1996), ‘Technology and Convergence’, ‘The economic journal, Vol 106, Issue 437, pp1037 -1044

• Chesborough H.W., (2003), ‘The era of open innovation’,MIT Sloan Management Review

• Cordeiro, JS (2006) ‘Technological Evolution’, in ‘Seeing things through New Eyes’ edited by Wagner, World Future Society

• Jensen, D., 1995, Listening to the Land: Conversations about Nature, Culture, and Eros, Sierra Club Books, ISBN 0-87156-417-3 Republished 2004 by Chelsea Green Publishing Company

• Jones S (2007), ‘Against Technology’, Routledge

Further Reading and References

• Gabor, D., Innovations: Scientific Technological and Social, 1970. (S&S)

• Grubler, (1998), ‘Technology and Global Change’, Cambridge University Press

• Kurzwel, R (2005), ‘The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology. New York: Viking. http:// www.singularity.com

• Mumford,L.,(1951) ‘The Conduct of Life’, "The Challenge of Renewal,“, Columbia

• Toffler, A., (1970), ‘Future Shock’,Harper,• Rogers, E. M. (1962), Diffusion of Innovations, Glencoe: Free Press. • White, R. (1990), Environmental Science and Technology, 1990.

(S&S)