Technology Forecasting

Dr. Seth Bates – Tech 198Unit 5: Technology Transfer and Assessment

S-Curves and Technology Trajectories

• Consider an industry or firm and the products it makes.

• Plot and describe the relevant S curve(s) for your industry, from recent history to current trends.

• Is the industry likely to be subject to “natural technological limits”? Why or why not?

• Has it experienced “discontinuities”? Is it likely to do so soon?

The Technology Life Cycle

Life Cycles and S-Curve Forecasting

Disruption and Transition

Creating Value:

• Be ready for paradigm shifts

• Understand how customer needs will evolve

• Understand how technologies will evolve (Both your own and those on which you rely)

• Develop world class products and services that meet customer needs

• Be ready for paradigm shifts

Forecasting

• Can the future of technology be predicted?– Forecasting techniques

• Delphi models• Forecasting by analogy• Trend extrapolation (‘S’ curves)

– The product/process transition

– Technological “exhaustion”

Delphi Models

• Ask the experts!– A committee?– Structured questionnaires?

• Pros– Field experts are often years ahead of day to day

practice: technologies do not “come from no where”

• Cons– They sometimes have little knowledge of possible

applications– They can be ‘enthusiastic’ (biased)

Forecasting by Analogy

A considerable amount of guesswork…

• Is nanotechnology like semiconductors?

• Or like biotechnology

• Or like something else altogether?

Trend Extrapolation

• Do all good things come to an end?

• Progress as a result of the passage of time versus progress as the result of returns to effort

• Predicting progress in complementary technologies (variations on the straight razor)

Technological Exhaustion

• Performance is ultimately constrained by physical limits, for example:– Sailing ships & the power of the wind– Copper wire & transmission capability– Semiconductors & the speed of the electron