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Telecom BitswithFaisal Sattar

29thJan 2009


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Agenda

Introduction

The Current Downturn

Expectations from 2009

3G Vs WiMAX

Pakistan & WiMAX

Future of WiMAX

Words of Wisdom


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Introduction


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The Current Downturn


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Global Effect

Liquidity Crunch Banks have made bad investments and are now deep in

the hole

Large governmental bailouts to inject liquidityback in the market US $700 Billion

Japan $ 300 Billion

Europe $500 $ 800 Billion No/Limited credit for businesses

Telecos: With strong balance sheets and cash flows are

OK; but reduced spending in any case Vendors: Reduced Spending Layoffs

Handset market suffering due to low consumer spending


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Pakistan

Continued Political uncertainty

Massive rupee devaluation

Cut throat (and perhaps unsustainable) competitionin the telecom sector (calls @ 1 cent / minute)

Requirement of Industry consolidation?

Times are hard; economy is going bust; revenues are falling in $ terms, creditis scarce, cost of investment going up; return on investment is very poor!

3G ANYONE?


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Expectations from 2009


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Global Telecom Trends. 2009

Telecom Operators as utilities will fare better than mosthowever cost optimization and operational efficiencies will bekey (investment in OSS vs. new services)

Vendors as previously noted will face a significant slowdown

Three major trends in telecom for 2009 & beyond:1. The Web and telecom joining into a single business model

e.g., Google looking for a fast lane to its users from access providers to speed upcontent. Application developers to enrich services, iPhone and Andriod

2. Content delivery networks (CDN) & Software as a service (SAAS)3. Integrating social network feature & relationship knowledge into

communication Presence as a central framework for communication and collaboration

Technologies:FTTH, FTTN, Metro Ethernet, Femtocells, FMC, IMS,OSS Software


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Pakistan 2009

3G licensing towards the 2nd half of the year, withstart of rollouts Initially limited 3G deployments covering major cities

Voice will be a major part of justifying 3G business models

Possible consolidation in the Mobile Industry Bigger combined market share & double the spectrum; cost

efficiencies & savings in 3G license and rollout More choice of broadband then ever before lower

rates higher speed no / large GB caps


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3G vs WiMAX


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Cellular/Fixed: Worlds Converge

Coverage/Mobility

Coverage/Mobility

Data Speeds (Kbps) span a wide rangeData Speeds (Kbps) span a wide range

100,000100,0001010

802.11n (smart antennas)802.11n (smart antennas)

802.11 with Mesh extns.802.11 with Mesh extns.

802.16e802.16e--

20052005

WiMAXWiMAX

LocalArea

LocalArea

Fixed

Fixed

WideArea

WideArea

Mob

ile

Mob

ile

MetroArea

MetroAr

ea

Nomadic

Nomadic

802.16802.16

(Fixed LOS)(Fixed LOS)

Cellular IndustryCellular Industry

FixedFixed

WirelessWireless

IndustryIndustry

802.16a/d802.16a/d

(Fixed NLOS)(Fixed NLOS)

EVEV--DODO DO Rev ADO Rev AHSDPAHSDPA Enhanced UL (R6/R7)Enhanced UL (R6/R7)

3.5G3.5G2G2G

4G Air4G Air

InterfacesInterfaces

Fixed WirelessFixed Wireless

IndustryIndustry

2.5G2.5G 3G3G

802.11802.11

b/a/gb/a/g

WirelessWireless

BroadbandBroadband

HSDPAHSDPA

TDDTDD


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0 2 4 6 8 10

2 GB

WiMAX costsLESS than EVDO

& HSDPA

>6 GB

WiMAX is lessthan the cost ofEVDO & HSDPA

Technology Comparative Business Case

WiMAX provides maximum opportunity for data-intensive usage

Base Sites 2.7xTCO 2.4x

Base Sites 2.1xTCO 2.0x

Base Sites 1xTCO 1xWiMAX

EV-DOrAHSDPA


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Advanced Antennas

MIMO Matrix ASpace Time Block Coding (STBC)

Data StreamA

Data StreamA

Enhancing Coverage

MIMO Matrix BSpatial Multiplexing (MIMO-SM)

Data StreamA

Data StreamB

Improving Capacity

Interferer

WiMAXSubscriber B

WiMAXSubscriber A

Interferer

Beamforming

Directing the radiation pattern

MIMOMatrix A

MIMOMatrix B

OptimalSwitchingPoint

Signal to Noise Ratio

Spectral

Efficiency

MIMOAdaptiveMode

Selection

Enhancing coverage, capacity & indoor penetration with multi-antenna

implementations


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CSN

IMS

ASNAuthenticator

Paging Controller

FA/Router

Local mobility

Access PointHandover Control

Radio Resource Mgmt

ARQ/MAC/PHY

L2 Ciphering

Classification/ ROHC

PDN

SAE GW

IMS

HSS

MME

Authenticator

Paging Controller

Serv.SAE GW

Local mobility

E-Node B

Handover Control

Radio Resource Mgmt

ARQ/MAC/PHY

L2 Ciphering

ROHC

WiM

AX

LT

E

WiMAX and LTE Architecture Comparison


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WiMax in Pakistan


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Broadband MarketUnderserved with huge

Growth Potential

Internet Users:

17.5M Internet as forMarch/08 from only 133kusers in Year 2000

Growth (2000-2007):

8,862% Broadband User:

170k as of Sept 08

10.4% penetration

90.5M Mobile Subscribers(Oct 08)

5.5M PCs growing by1M/year

SOURCE: PTA Telecom Quarterly Review, March 2008

Pakistans Data IndustryKey Growth Indicators


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2Q 2008December 2007

10th with

12.4M users

7th with

17.5M users

Pakistan in Asia Top 10 Internet Countries


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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Wateen has deployed 35,000+ CPEs as of Q2 2008

Have ordered 198,000 CPEs, plan

to complete the order within the

next year

2009

Invested $50 million to improve its services; launched itsBroadband Entertainment Portal and new packages for its

DSL subscribers

Launched PTCL Smart IPTV with thefollowing features: VoD, TSTV, Parental

Control, EPG & NVOD

20

0

8

20

0

9

Expand to: Lahore, Islamabad/Rawalpindi & Faisalabad

Expected to launch

in IslamabadExpand to: Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi & Faisalabad

Expected to

launch in Karachi

Launched EVDO

WiMax Rollout

announced!

Mobilink Infinity WiMAX network

Broadband Landscape


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Broadband Competition

DSL will be slow to roll-out and hard to maintain due to operational

challenges at PTCL

EVDO upgrade by WLL players not economically scalable Cable Operators are fragmented (900+) and have poor infrastructure

3G networks will start rollout in 4Q 2009

WiMax operators without access to cell sites will have a difficult time

in network roll out


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Bringing broadband to Pakistan

The speed of this process will depend on technology evolution and the drive of the broadband

industry

Increasing affordability Lower cost of CPEs

Shared-access solutions

Prepaid with low cost of ownership(affordability)

Make it plug & play

Increasing value of broadband

(educate, create interest and increaseproximity):

Sponsor education centres (schools,

universities, etc.)

Broadband centres in various cities

(pre-rollout) Partnership and alliances for content

and services. E.g. Google

USF/World Bank programs

WiMAX TodayWiMAX Tomorrow

Mass Market

Main Growth Drivers


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Future of WiMAX

WiMAX offers a solution for marketswith low broadband penetration and

poor fixed line infrastructure It should do great in India, Pakistan etc..

Where there is good DSL / Cablecomplemented by 3G networks, thereis no need for WiMAX & these markets

will migrate straight to LTE Europe


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Word of Wisdom


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From The Last Lecture by Randy Pausch

Brick walls are there to show us ourdedication

Dont bail, the best gold is at the bottom of

the barrel of crap Get a feedback loop & listen to it Show Gratitude

Dont complain; just work harder Be good at something; it makes you

valuable

Find the best in everybody Be prepared; luck is where preparationmeets opportunity


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Thanks a lot!

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