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Tendencias de la Población Mundial y Su Impacto en la Industria Acuicola BILL HOENIG CHOLUTECA – HONDURAS 24/08/16
Tendencias de la PoblaciónMundial y Su Impacto en la
Industria Acuicola
BILL HOENIG CHOLUTECA – HONDURAS
24/08/16
Were is the Population Growth
• Top Countries 2010-2050
Population Increase by Area
Urbanization Trends
• 54% of world population live in urban areas• In 1950 it was 30%, By 2050 it will be 66%
• Urban population has grown rapidly, from 746 MM in 1950 to 3.9 Billion in 2014
• It is projected that growth will be additional 2.5 Billion by 2050• 90% of increase in Asia and Africa
• India 404 MM, China 292 MM, Nigeria 212 MM
El Desarrollo de la Clase Media
• In 2009 middle class included 1.8 Billion• EU 664 MM, Asia 525, NA 338
• Expansion continues• 2020 - 3.2 Billion, 2030 – 4.9 Billion
• Bulk of growth in Asia, by 2030 will be 66% of Global middle class population• 59% Of the middle class consumption
• Emerging Markets will become more important• From 2001 to 2009 Brazil added 31 MM to Middle class
No se olvide Mexico!!!!
Global Middle Class Consumption
The Shifting of the World’s Economic Center of Gravity And The Upcoming Billion Middle-Class Asian Urbanites
The World: Economic Center of Gravity
World Economic Output Over 50 Years, 1984-2034 (2005 PPP dollars)
Source: Homi Kharas, The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, OECD 2010.
Growing Economic Power, Growing Middle Class:By 2030, Sixty Six percent (66%) of The World’s Middle Class Will Live in Asia Pacific
Source: Homi Kharas, The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, OECD 2010.
Numbers (millions) and Share (percent) of the Global Middle Class
These Three Billion Asian Middle Class People Will Account For Fifty Nine Percent (59%) of The Global Middle Class Spending By 2030
Source: The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, OECD 2010.
Figures in Millions of 2005 PPP dollars)
India and China Drive the Growth in the Global Middle Class
Source: The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, OECD 2010.
Annual Fish Consumption per capita
Fish Proteins Compared to Animal Proteins
So, Is Asia’s The Future Of The World?
• “If you want to see the past, go to Europe.
• If you wan to see the Present go to north America.
• If you want to see the future, come to Asia.”
Kishore Mabubhani
Dean of the LKY School of Government, Singapore
Impacto de una Creciente Clase Media en el Consumo de Mariscos
Elasticidad Ingreso de la Demanda
• Se denomina Elasticidad ingreso de la demanda al cambio proporcional en la demanda de un bien en respuesta a un cambio en el nivel de ingresos de una persona. Esto se refleja en cómo la gente cambia sus hábitos de consumo con cambios en sus niveles de ingresos.
• En una economía en crecimiento (donde los niveles de ingresos están aumentando) los bienes cuya demanda es altamente dependiente de los ingresos van a vender más que los bienes cuya demanda no es dependiente de los ingresos.
Porque la Clase Media es una Oportunidadpara La Industria Acuicola?
• Efecto de Elasticidad de Ingresos
• Caracteristicas de la Clase Media:
• Demograficas muy interesantescon mas mujeres trabajando
• Mas concientes en inocuidadalimenticia y calidad
• Mas interesados en sustentabilidadambiental
• Mas abiertos a nuevos/diferentestipos de comida, en la globalizacioncomestible
Proyeccion de la Demanda Global de Mariscos
• Dependiendo de suposiciones usadas las proyecciones de la demandaglobal de mariscos es entre 138 y 159 Millones de Tonelas (MT) para el 2025.
• Produccion acuicolaentonces tendra que serentre 74 a 100 MT para 2025, un increment de 22 a 42 MT de niveles del 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Additional demand if consumption increases at same rate as from 1975-2008
Additional demand if consumption stable at 2008 level - 17.2 kg/capita whole fish
Aquaculture production less plants (assume stable production past 2008 - 52 Mt)
Capture production less non-food (assume stable production past 2008 - 64Mt)
Global Seafood Requirements (million tonnes)
Projections based on Medium popn estimates from UN ‘08 Revision - 9 billion by 2050
World needs 138 & 159 Mt by 2025 & 2050 if consumpt at 2008 level
World needs 164 & 232 Mt by 2025 & 2050 if consumpt increases
. Therefore need 74 & 95 Mt from aqua (extra 22 & 42 from 2008 prod) at 2008 consumpt & stable capture
Need 100 & 167 Mt from aqua (extra 48 & 116 from 2008 prod if consumpt increases)
Source: Geoff Allan, Port Stephens Fisheries Intitute
La Proporcion de Proteina Animal en la Dieta subea medida con Ingresos per Capita
Source: H.H. Jensen / Marine Pollution Bulletin 53 (2006)
Sin Embargo, La Proporcion de Proteina Marina no SubeNecesariamente con Ingresos; Cultura y Recursos Naturales tienenImpacto
Source: H.H. Jensen / Marine Pollution Bulletin 53 (2006)
Per person % of income spent on Food and Drink By Country
El Auge de Consumo de Mariscos enChina
• Demanda de Marisco a incrementado de 7kg porpersona en 1985 a unos 25kg en el 2005 y a seguido subiendodesde entonces.
• Elasticidad de demanda de mariscos en China es alrededorde 0.98 (Lidkvist et al, 2008).
• Se estima que que compras de Mariscos en China seran el doble para el 2020 (en Yuan) .
Source: K.B. Lindkvist et al. / Marine Policy 32 (2008)
But, Geography Matters: Rising Income On The Chinese Eastern Costal Line
Source: K.B. Lindkvist et al. / Marine Policy 32 (2008)
Mejoras en Infraestructura proveen acceso a Mariscos en nuevas áreas. Hay 14 ciudades de mas de 5 MM (Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Shenzhen,
Dongguan, Taipei, Chengdu, Hong Kong, Nanjing, Wuhan, Shenyang, Hangzhou, and Chongqing),
Demanda de Mariscos Incrementaraen el Sur - Este de Asia
Con el aumento de ingresos, Indonesia, Tailandia, Malaysia, Filipinas, y Bangladesh probablemente veran un aumento en el consumo de mariscosde production local
Mientras en Las Americas…..
MM/USD
Fuente: Sagarpa (Anuario Estadístico de Acuacultura y Pesca)
Mexico 2014
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mar Abierto 31,034 37,034 42,748 50,690 44,261 42,187 38,158 42,950 36,532 38,720 30,640
Esteros y Bahias 22,256 31,191 23,323 22,217 21,827 20,987 24,245 31,359 25,000 28,504 27,013
Acuacultura 72,277 90,040 111,306 111,787 130,201 133,282 104,612 109,815 100,321 60,292 86,313
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20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Ton
ela
das
SERIE HISTORICA DE LA PRODUCCION DE CAMARON (PESO VIVO EN TONELADAS)
Fuente: Sagarpa (Anuario Estadístico de Acuacultura y Pesca)
Producción total 2014: 143,966 Toneladas
Fuente: Sagarpa (Anuario Estadístico de Acuacultura y Pesca)
Exportaciones de Camaron: 14.9% del total
Fuente: Sagarpa (Anuario Estadístico de Acuacultura y Pesca)
Importaciones de Camaron: 44.8% mas que exportaciones
Consumo Total de Camaron: 161,387 Toneladas
BRAZIL
Que Significa Todo Esto Para La industria Acuicola?
World Per Capita Fish Consumption
Factores que Contribuyen al Consumo de Marisco
Dentro de un Area Local• Acceso a areas de pesca• Interacion de factores socio
economicos• Tradiciones de Comida• Paladares• Niveles de Ingreso• Tempoiradas• Precios• Conciencia de beneficios
de Salud
Importaciones - Especialmente en PaisesDesarrollados• Globalizacion de Alimentos• Inovaciones y Mejoras en
• Proceso• Transporte• Distribucion• Mercadotecnia• Tecnologia• Ciencia Alimentaria
Aquaculture’s Contribution To Supply For Human Consumption
In 2010, aquaculture contributed about 47 percent of the fishery output for human consumption –Compared to:• 5 percent in 1960, • 9 percent in 1980 • 34 percent in 2000• average annual growth rate of 4.7
percent in the period 1990–2010.
• if China is excluded, the average contribution of aquaculture is significantly lower at 17 percent in 2000 and 29 percent in 2010.
An increasing amount of fish consumed in developed countries consists of imports. As demand increases and domestic/wild fishery production declines (down 10 percent in the period 2000–2010). The dependence on imports, in particular from developing countries, is projected to grow.
Source: FAO
In Summary: Seafood Is A Growing Business
• Demand for top-grade aquatic products can be expected to continue to increase over the next 20 years or so.
• This growth will be driven by:• The 3 billion middle-income consumers in Asia-Pacific and • Rapid Urbanization
• However, in refining projections for future demand, it is critical to take into account:• Growth of the Middle Class (not only population growth);• Geography • Culture, and• The fact that consumption is not infinitely elastic to income.
Muchas Gracias
