Texas Economic Charts - Nov 2009

Texas Business-Cycle Index

-8-6

-4-2

02

46

810

12

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

TX recessionIndex 1971=100 (Nov=-0.88)

Source: FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org

Month/Month, SAAR

Change in Texas Leading Index

0.09

-1.04

0.13

0.1

0.02

0.41

0.52

0.62

0.84

-2 -1 0 1 2

Average Weekly Hours

Help Wanted Index

Texas Stock Index

New Unemployment Claims

Well Permits

Real Oil Price

U.S. Leading Index

Texas Value of the Dollar

Net Change in Texas Leading Index


Percent

Net Contributions of Components 3-month change: August - September - October

Texas Total Nonfarm EmploymentQuarterly Growth

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

Texas (Q3=-2.69)

U.S. (Q3=-1.8)

Source: BLS/TWC, seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org

1-quarter % change, SAAR

Texas Total Nonfarm EmploymentMonthly Growth

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Texas (Nov=0.54)

U.S. (Nov=-0.1)

1-month % change, SAAR


Texas Industry Employment

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Natural Resources & Mining (Nov=15.77) Construction (Nov=-7.05)Trade, Transp & Utilities (Nov=-3.2) Manufacturing (Nov=-7.06)Professional & Business Svc (Nov=0.1) Financial Activities (Nov=5.1)Leisure & Hospitality (Nov=4.82) Information (Nov=-13.82)Educational & Health Services (Nov=4.68) Government (Nov=2.38)


NAICS Super SectorsMonthly Growth. SA by FRB Dallas

December 2008 - November 2009


Texas High Tech Manufacturing Employment(Change in Employment)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Change in Employment (Nov=0.2)Thousands, SA


Texas High Tech Manufacturing Employment

Index, Jan 1990=100

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Semiconductor & Oth. Electronic Components (Nov=108.5)

Computers and Peripheral Equipment (Nov=62.5)

Communications Equipment (Nov=37.6)


Texas High Tech Services Employment

Index, Jan 1990=100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Telecommunications (Nov=129.7)

ISPs, search portals, and data processing * (Nov=97.7)

Computer system design and related services (Nov=521.8)


* The January 2007 drop in ISPs, search portals, and data processing is due to changes in NAICS codes.

Texas Major Metro Area Employment

9698

100102104106108110112114116118120

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Texas (Nov=109) Austin (Nov=115.3)Dallas (Nov=103.5) El Paso (Nov=106.2)Ft. Worth (Nov=108.5) Houston (Nov=110)San Antonio (Nov=112)

Index, Jan2001=100


Texas Metro Business-Cycle Indexes

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Austin-Round Rock

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Brownsville-Harlingen

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Dallas-Plano-Irving MD

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

El Paso

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Forth Worth-Arlington MD

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Laredo

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

San Antonio


November 2009

Texas Major Metro Area Business-Cycle Indexes

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Austin (Nov=224.9)Dallas (Nov=144.4)Ft. Worth (Nov=161.2)Houston (Nov=226.4)San Antonio (Nov=169.8)Texas (Nov=160.9)

Index, Jan1990=100


Texas Border Metro Area Business-Cycle Indexes

80100120140160180200220240260280300320340360380

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Brownsville (Nov=189.9) El Paso (Nov=139.7)Laredo (Nov=244.4) McAllen (Nov=294.7)Texas (Nov=160.9)

Index, Jan1990=100


Texas Border Employment SA by FRB Dallas. Monthly Changes.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Brownsville (Nov=5.98) El Paso (Nov=-2.63) Laredo (Nov=-5.43)

McAllen (Nov=3.33) Border (Nov=0.34)


December 2008 - November 2009


Texas and U.S. Unemployment Rate

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

U.S. (Nov=10)

Texas (Nov=8)

Source: BLS http://www.dallasfed.org

Percent, SA

Texas Major Metro Area Unemployment Rates

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Austin (Nov=7.1)Dallas (Nov=8.2)Houston (Nov=8.4)San Antonio (Nov=6.9)

Percent, SA

Source: BLS, seasonal adjustment by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org

Energy Prices and Texas Rig Count

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

TX rig count (Dec=478)Oil price (Jan=79.14)Natural gas price (Jan=58.74)

Rig count,

weeklyNominal price, $

weekly

Source: Wall Street Journal, Henry Hub, Baker Hughes http://www.dallasfed.org

Oil price

Natural gas price*

TX rig count

* Natural gas price is multiplied by 10

Real Texas Construction Contract Values

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Residential (Nov=197)

Nonresidential (Nov=111)

Nonbuilding (Nov=205)

Index Jan 1990=100SA, 5MMA

Source: McGraw-Hill Construction F.W. Dodge http://www.dallasfed.org

Texas Residential Permits and Mortgage Rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

30-yr mortgage rate (Jan 04=5)

Singe family permits (Nov=5848)

Multifamily permits (Nov=942)

Number of permits SA, 5MMA

Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org

Mortgage rate, percent

30-yr mortgage rate

Multifamily permits

Single family permits

Texas Exports by Region

50100150200250300350400450500550600650

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Texas Total MexicoCanada European Union (27)Asia** Latin America*China

Index, 97Q1=100 Real $, SA

Source: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research, FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org

35%9%

13%

19%

12%4%

8%other

* Latin America excluding Mexico; ** Asia excluding China

Mexico

2009:Q3

Texas Exports by Industry

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

TX total ChemicalsComputers & Electronics Petroleum and Coal ProductsMachinery Agriculture and FoodTransportation Equipment

Index, 97Q1=100 Real $, SA

Source: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research, FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org

17%21%

10%

16%5% 9%

22%other

2009:Q3

Date post:	01-Nov-2014
Category:	Real Estate
Upload:	bob-lowery
View:	1,478 times
Download:	0 times

Texas Economic Charts - Nov 2009

Real Estate