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www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu The 2030 Agenda and Societal Change: from dreams to reality Céline Charveriat EESC meeting 22 and 23 May 2016
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
The 2030 Agenda and Societal Change: from dreams to reality
Céline Charveriat
EESC meeting
22 and 23 May 2016
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
IEEP & SDGs: The contribution of a European sustainability think tank
• Asking the right questions • « Toute connaissance est une réponse à une
question. » (Gaston Bachelard)
• What safe and just space for Europe?
• Which national and collective European preferences are compatible with science and universality?
• How to resolve justice issues (generation, equity –inclusiveness or putting those furthest behind first)
• Searching for solutions with our work on circular economy and marine litter:
Source: Kate Raworth. Doughnut Economics. 2017
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
What ambition for Europe?
Example of stop-gap analysis based on top 5 OECD performers. Source: Based on Bertelsmann Stiftung & SDSN. 2016. SDG Index and Dashboard – A global report.
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
What pathway? The importance of back-casting and scenario building
• Backcasting: “generating a desirable future, and then looking
backwards from that future to the present in order to strategize and to plan how it could be achieved”
‒ Integrating relevant SDGs and other targets (UNFCCC mid-century net zero emissions)
‒ Taking into account real potential for change (speed and scale)
‒ Based on latest science
‒ Taking into account the unknowns
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The case of European agriculture
2020 2030 2050
Low carbon and resilient EU
agriculture in line with 1.5 degree, fair shares and
other planetary boundaries,
contributing to health, food
security, reduced
poverty and inequality
What 2030 objectives in
line with SDGs and mid-century
strategy?
What costs and what burden
sharing? How much
reduction in GHG and increased
sequestration?
What level of activity and
employment?
What consumption
level and mix?
What mix of production
models? CAP (2021-2027)
MFF (2021-2028)
Europe 2030 strategy
Submission to UNFCCC
What tipping points along the way?
Change in demand? Market and trade
driven? Disasters/ecological
collapse? Technology?
Demographical transition?
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What does universal mean for Europe?
The special case of OECD (and possibly other) countries:
1) domestic targets 2) do-no-harm targets to minimize external negative effects
Avoid beggar thy neighbour approaches
3) International responsibility targets Support others in achieving their
goals in line with “Common But Differentiated Responsbility and Capacities”
Source: Climate Equity Reference Project, “Fair Shares: A Civil Society Equity Review of INDCS”, (November 2015).
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
What path interdependency? The example of meat and dairy consumption
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What role for research and innovation?
• Interdisciplinary research
• Key forms of innovation ‒ Technology?
‒ New supply chains (secondary raw materials)
‒ Governance
‒ Financial (e.g. high level group on sustainable finance)
• What enabling framework for “meaningful” innovation?
Source: PwC, “Innovation for the Earth: Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people and the planet”, World Economic Forum, Davos (January 2017).
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
Shifting the trillions: Mainstreaming and beyond?
• What financing gap in Europe?
• What role for public finance (local, MS, EU), citizens (e.g. divestment) and private finance?
• @ European Union level: ‒ Next MFF: Towards sustainability proofing?
‒ Own resources?
‒ Innovative instruments (see new ETS Just transition fund)
‒ Role of EIB
‒ Enabling macroeconomic framework: ECB
Headlines of current MFF’s effectiveness
• Horizontal mainstreaming of sustainable development via Article 8 of 2013 CPR and climate 20% target
• Est. 18.9% of the total EU budget for climate action by 2020 i.e. Eur. 200 bn (EC, 2016).
• Effectiveness of spending? ‒ 57.1 % of European Agricultural Fund for
Rural Development (EAFRD) earmarked for climate action i.e. 56 bn
‒ Lack of description of specific climate action measures within programs
‒ Bulk of allocations have climate change as a secondary objective
‒ Mitigation vs. adaptation confusion?
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What governance and processes? • Some top down?
‒ Science-based objective setting and road map: independent panel of experts
‒ Collective approach to impact on third countries (.e.g trade)
• Bottom up process of MS contributions: “ indicative national contributions” (thereby strengthening the existing process in the HLPF) every two years.
• Deeper societal engagement: A process similar to the Paris-Lima agenda, with pledges from local authorities, businesses and civil society, citizen engagement Monitoring and accountability: Regular sense-making exercise with effective feedback loop
• New toolbox: e.g. new Agenda 21 tools, just transition methodology, 3D projects from C40, OECD better life-index; Italy’s budget indicators; Germany’s legislative Sustainability Impact Assessments; EU guardian of future generations; Sustainability proofing of MFF
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
How to inform the public and whose job is it?
• A big knowledge gap ‒ 36% of EU population have heard of SDGs,
with 10% only knowing what they are (Eurobarometer, 2015)
‒ 19% of Germans knowing a lot or some about SDGs and 27% in the UK (Globescan, 2016)
• What narrative? ‒ Difficulty in “describing the beach” ‒ More or less Europe vs. positive value-
based narrative ‒ We are doing great vs. transformation ‒ Us vs. them
Net trust in institutions (%)
Institutions
Science and academia
48
NGOs 30
UN 15
Business 12
National governments
1
Media -1%
Source: Globescan (2016). Average of 25 OECD and emerging countries.
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Sources • AlphaBeta, “Valuing the SDG Prize in Food and Agriculture”, Business and Sustainable Development Commission (October 2016).
• Christian Kroll, “Sustainable Development Goals: Are the rich countries ready”, Guetersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung (2015).
• Climate Equity Reference Project, “Fair Shares: A Civil Society Equity Review of INDCS”, (November 2015).
• European Commission, “EU28 Highlights”, Special Eurobarometer 441 (November-December 2015).
• European Commission, “Next steps for a sustainable European future: European action for sustainability”, COM(2016) 739 final (Strasbourg, 22 November 2016).
• Eurostat, “Sustainable development in the European Union: A Statistical Glance from the Viewpoint of the UN SDGs”, (2016).
• Globescan, “Average of 25 OECD and emerging countries”, (2016).
• Globescan, “Awareness of SDGs vs MDGs: How engaged are global citizens?” (presented at the OECD DevCom Annual Meeting, 9 November 2016).
• Guido Schmidt-Traub, “Implementing the SDGs: Are European countries ready?”, UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (presented at the EESC Conference ‘Next steps for a sustainable European future - Reforming Europe, implementing SDGs’, Brussels, Belgium 7 July 2016).
• Ingeborg Niestroy, “How are we getting ready? The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in the EU and its Member States: Analysis and Action so far”, German Development Institute (9/2016).
• Kate Raworth, “Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist”, Chelsea Green Publishing (2017).
• PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, “Innovation for the Earth: Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people and the planet”, World Economic Forum, Davos (January 2017).
• Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the Bertelsmann Stiftung, “SDG Index and Dashboards – Global Report” (2016).
