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Black Swan Theory Main Aspects
| Date post: | 01-Nov-2014 |
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Technology |
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Black Swan Theory
Main Aspects
A Black Swan, a member
of the species Cygnus
Atratus, which remained
undocumented in the West
until the 18th Century.
The Black Swan TheoryThe Beautiful Bird
The Black Swan Theory is a
metaphor that discuss the
impact of a hard-to-predict
event or a surprise in many
aspects of our Society.
The Black Swan TheoryThe Key Concept
The Black Swan Theory is a
philosophical and
mathematical theory founded
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
and it describes randomness
and uncertainty.
The Black Swan TheoryThe Author – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
It's name originates in the
assumption in Medieval
Europe that black swans
could not exist, when in
fact, they are rare, but do
exist.
The Black Swan TheoryWhere does the name come from?
According to the Black
Swan Theory,
unpredictable events are
much more common
than people think and
are the norm and not the
exception.
The Black Swan TheoryImportant
Taleb believes that:
The more educated people are, the more
likely it is that they incorrectly believe these
unpredictable events are uncommon.
Information overflow in today's society
blind us from relevant data about our life.
We don´t interpret data accurately and
create correlations that are not relevant.
The Black Swan TheoryMain Aspects of the Theory
In 1943, the chairman of IBM, Thomas
Watson, declared that, “there is a world
market for maybe five computers.”
The Black Swan TheoryReal Life Examples - Famous Predictions
In 1962, Decca recording company said of
the Beatles, “we don’t like their sound, and
guitar music is on the way out.”
Real estate were convinced to be the best
reliable asset but it was then proven
wrong and the crisis destroyed many
business and people´s life.
The Black Swan TheoryReal Life Examples – USA Crisis
We can´t predict the future based on
the following statements:
Whatever proven right today, doesn’t mean it will
be right forever. It can be proven wrong
tomorrow.
Whatever proven wrong tomorrow, doesn’t
mean it will NOT be proven right again.
Whatever proven wrong today, doesn't mean it
will be wrong forever. It can be proven right
tomorrow.
The Black Swan TheoryWe can´t predict the future!
The first thing is you should not deny the
black swan events. It happens to
everyone.
Another important thing to understand is,
a black swan event to me might not be a
black swan event to you.
Plan for the worst case. What could be the
black swan event for you?
The Black Swan TheoryHow to deal with the Hard-to-predict Event
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