Date post: | 02-Jul-2015 |
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THE BUSINESS OF
CLIMATE & THE CLIMATE
FOR BUSINESS
ICCC Coffee Morning June 5, 2014
Dr. Andrew Steer President & CEO
World Resources Institute
Apples and Socks
$180 billion Mitigation $100 billion Adaptation
$100 billion Copenhagen
$30 billion Fast Start
$95 billion Today’s Annual Flows
The Right Way to Look at It
$10 Trillion
$500 Billion How to finance the core..
.. And the increment
WRI’S CORPORATE PARTNERS
BUILDING OUR ECONOMIC CAPACITY: NEW
CLIMATE ECONOMY INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL
Co-Chair:
Felipe Calderón Dan Doctoroff Luisa
Diogo Minouche Shafik Co-Chair: Lord
Nicholas Stern
Ingrid Bonde Sharan Burrow Helen Clark
Kris Gopalakrishnan Chad Holliday Sri Mulyani Indrawati Ricardo Lagos Trevor Manuel
Paul Polman Zhu Levin
Takehiko Nakao
Chen Yuan Angel Gurría Jens Stoltenberg Michel M. Liès Annise Parker
(McKinsey 2010)
Estimated costs of abating global greenhouse gas emissions
Resource efficiency: Investment Dynamics
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
45
40
35
30
25
20
Global CO2 emissions need to peak and start falling soon
Source: World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA
450 Scenario
Efficient World
Scenario
New Policies
Scenario
Current Policies
Scenario
2. Directed technical change
Porter and van der Linde (1995): The innovation effect
… which can lead to
increased
competitiveness and
profitability.
(Strong Porter
hypothesis)
Policy promotes
innovation that
reduces the cost of
regulation
(Weak Porter
hypothesis)
OECD 2010
Index of innovation in climate change mitigation technologies (1990 = 1)
2. Directed technical change
Falling costs in solar PV
(US Department of Energy, 2011)
China leads on renewable energy Renewable energy installed capacity (excluding large hydro)
(Pew, 2012)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
China UnitedStates
Germany Spain Italy Japan India France Brazil
Gig
aw
att
s
China U.S. Germany Spain Italy Japan India France Brazil
Images: Wikipedia, Flickr/The National Guard
“Risky Business” – June
1990
Source: IEA 2013; IMF 2013
SUBSIDIZING THE WRONG THING Fossil fuels vs. renewable energy
Fossil fuel
subsidies
Renewable energy
subsidies
$2t (including
externalities)
$500b $100b
1 SUSTAINABLE PALM
OIL: A NEW ERA?
Image: istockphoto
THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?
SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?
RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
pe
rcap
ita
(met
ric
ton
s)
GDP per capita (PPP, constant 2005 international $)
USA
Australia
Ireland UK
Japan
France Greece
Korea Rep.
Malaysia
Mexico
Brazil
Thailand
China
India
Russia
High-carbon growth path
Low-carbon growth path
GREENING GROWTH
Through low-carbon cities
0 100 200 300 400 500
CHP
Coal fired
Natural gas CCGT
Nuclear
Small hydro
Large hydro
Geothermal - flash plant
Wind - onshore
Municipal solid waste
Landfill gas
Biomass - incineration
Geothermal - binary plant
Biomass - gasification
PV - c-Si tracking
PV - thin film
Biomass - anaerobic digestion
PV - c-Si
STEG - tower & heliostat w/storage
STEG - parabolic trough
Wind - offshore
Fuel cells
STEG - parabolic trough + storage
STEG - tower & heliostat
STEG - LFR
Marine - tidal
Marine - wave
LCOE BNEF EU Carbon Forecast Q1 2013 Central Scenario Q1 2012 Central Scenario
-24%
-4%
-
+17%
+5%
-
+14%
-29%
-1%
-
-
$1,058 +9%
$861 +10%
+2%
+9%
-
+3%
+1%
-10%
-28%
-
-
+6%
+2%
-14%
-
Coal Fired LCOE
Global Levelized Cost of Electricity Q1 2012 – Q1 2013 ($/mWH)
Technology cost: improving but still challenging
Source BNEF
Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon
THIS?
OR THIS?
Image: Flikr/Andreas
CITIES IN THE LEAD
Image: istockphoto
1
Image: Wikimedia
TOWARD A CLIMATE DEAL?
We didn’t inherit this planet from our parents..…
…..we borrowed it from our children