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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission [email protected] (512) 936-3105
The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market
Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI)Texas Workforce Commission
[email protected] (512) 936-3105
Harry Truman is purported to have said,
All my economists say, “on the one, or on the other hand”…what I really need is a one-handed economist.
Is it a recovery or an expansion? Is the difference
economic or a crisis in confidence?
Corporate profits are up, but not payments to workers
Consumers are staying in cash
Disposable Personal Income is Flat
Consumer and Business Confidence remains low
Great Recession
Hurricane Katrina
Iraq War
Debt Ceiling Debate?
Is the Economic Glass Half Full? or Half Empty?
• Unemployment rate falling• More sectors contribute to
job growth• Corporations cash-rich• 31 months of job growth• Spending is up, consumers
lowering debt burden • Consumer confidence is
improving• House prices near bottom?• UI initial claims are down
• Real estate, construction and govt. still reeling
• European debt/bank crisis still looming
• Slowing global GDP? • Energy/gas prices?• Lack of confidence in
demand, political system• Still tight lending
standards & terms• Net worth down$9.4 tril
from peak
The global labor market is very messy
Comparative Total Population Change in Texas 2000-2010
12
2000Population
2010Population
ABS CHG2000-10
PCT CHG 2000-10
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
Decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010
Number of People
82 - 9,999
10,000 - 24,999
25,000 - 99,999
100,000 - 999,999
1,000,000 - 4,092,459
Percent Change
-21% - -10.1%
-10% - -0.1%
0% - 24.9%
25% - 54.9%
55% - 81.8%
Where Texans Live Where Texans have moved
Texas becomes more Hispanic
Tough Competition: Generational Employment in Texas 2000 - 2010
How many Millenials does it take to screw in a light bulb?
1. One to the instructions2. One to post the instructions on the wall
of their page3. One to post the video of their
work showing collaborationOne Baby Boomer to tell them what a terrific, wonderful, spectacular job they
did with the light bulb
Texas Labor Market Statistics (SA)Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
April 2012 Mar 2012 April 2011
Texas Labor Force (+141,000 YOY)
12.568 Mil 12.539 Mil 12.427 Mil
Texas Unemployed (-130,000 YOY)
862,900 881,000 992,900
Texas U Rate 6.9% 7.0% 8.0%
U.S. Labor Force (+945,000 YOY)
154.365 Mil 154.707 Mil 153.420 Mil
U.S. Unemployed(-1,292,000 YOY)
12,500,000 12,673,000 13,792,000
U.S. Urate 8.1% 8.2% 9.0%
Declining Rates of Workforce Participation
LFPR
E/P
Regional Job Growth RatesBig 10 Texas metro areas – 4th Quarter to 4th Quarter
Metro area 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Austin-Round Rock +4.9% -0.01% -3.0% +3.1% +3.3%Beaumont-Port Arthur +1.2% +1.7% -6.0% +1.9% +1.2%Brownsville-Harlingen +1.7% -0.5% -0.6% +1.9% +0.3%Corpus Christi +2.8% +1.4% -3.9% +0.7% +1.9%Dallas-Fort Worth +2.5% -0.01% -4.5% +1.7% +2.3%El Paso +3.0% +0.1% -1.7% +2.2% +2.4%Houston-Baytown +4.4% +1.1% -3.9% +1.7% +2.8%McAllen-Edinburg +3.2% +1.6% -0.8% +1.6% +1.6%San Antonio +2.1% +1.0% -2.1% +1.7% +1.9%Victoria +0.4% -0.2% -5.4% +1.9% +2.4%
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Texas Workforce Commission
Texas 2000-2011 3rd Quarter Wages
Texas Goods producing Industries Employment Index 1995-2012
Texas Industry Growth March 2011-12 YOYNAICS Industry March 2012 ABS CHG Yearly %Total Nonfarm 10,741,700 245,700 2.3%Total Private Sector 8,960,100 300,600 3.5% Goods producing 1,677,200 65,000 4.0% Service-providing 8,686,300 180,700 2.0%Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,143,400 54,900 2.6%Professional and Business Services 1,373,900 51,000 3.9%Leisure and Hospitality 1,084,400 49,900 4.8%Educational and Health Services 1,454,600 47,500 3.4%Mining and Logging 261,900 36,400 16.1%Manufacturing 850,400 23,700 2.9%Financial Activities 652,100 16,400 2.6%Other Services 378,200 14,300 3.9%Construction 564,900 4,900 0.9%Information 196,300 1,600 0.8%Government 1,781,600 -54,900 -3.0%
Eagle Ford Shale: 24 county region
1. $1.3 billion in gross state product, $2.9 total output
2. $511 million in salaries (2010)
3. Supports 12,601 jobs4. $108 million in tax revenues5. 2,828 drilling permits issued
through 2011
Quits are up. Layoffs are Flat. Implications?
Quits
Layoffs
Texas New Hires 1stQTR2011
Texas New Hires from the Census Bureau LED Database New Hires (2011 Q1)
New Hires (2010 Q1)
Industry (NAICS subsector code) 646,697 564,7991 Food Services and Drinking Places (722) 85,211 76,5192 Administrative and Support Services (561) 68,810 60,7433 Ambulatory Health Care Services (621) 48,226 45,3194 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (541) 42,418 36,3795 Specialty Trade Contractors (238) 20,265 19,4136 General Merchandise Stores (452) 24,710 21,2647 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities (623) 16,905 16,1928 Credit Intermediation and Related Activities (522) 16,110 15,2459 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods (423) 14,946 11,25510 Food and Beverage Stores (445) 14,740 14,00211 Hospitals (622) 15,202 14,69012 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (448) 18,074 15,99513 Social Assistance and Child Care(624) 12,438 11,39714 Support Activities for Mining (213) 12,873 6,96915 Construction of Buildings (236) 9,407 8,965
Growth Occupations (most jobs) for Texas for 2008-2018
Type of JobAnnual
OpeningsDecade
Growth RateRequired
education/training
1. Fast Food Prep Worker 7,845 42% Short-term On Job Training
2. Elementary School Teacher 6,110 39% Bachelor’s degree
3. Retail Salesperson 5,430 15% Moderate On Job Training
4. Registered Nurse 5,365 32% Associate’s degree
5. Home Health Aide 5,105 55% Short-term On Job Training
6. Customer Service Rep 5,005 23% Moderate On Job Training
7. Waitress/Waiter 4,530 24% Short-term On Job Training
8. Personal & Home Care Aide 4,400 47% Short-term On Job Training
9. Office Clerk 3,960 17% Short-term On Job Training
10. Cashier 3,690 13% Short-term On Job Training
11. Secondary School Teacher 3,105 31% Bachelor’s degree
12. Construction Worker 3,090 22% Moderate On Job Training
Fastest Growing Texas Occupations 2018 - Projected
Growth Occupations Education preferred 2009 Salary
1. Biomedical Engineers Bachelor's degree $66,7292. Home Health Aides Short-term OJT $18,8493. Network Systems & Data Communications Analysts Bachelor's degree $76,420
4. Petroleum Engineers Bachelor's degree $126,2415. Athletic Trainers Bachelor's degree $45,873
6. Personal & Home Care Aides Short-term OJT $16,2117. Electrical & Electronics Repairers, Powerhouse, Substation & Relay
Postsecondary vocational training $55,250
8. Financial Examiners Bachelor's degree $76,3599. Medical Scientists Doctoral degree $64,386
10. Special Education Teachers Bachelor's degree $49,856
Expected Growth Occupations in STEM in Texas 2008-2018
Type of Job Minimum Required Pay Range1. Registered Nurse Associate’s degree $48,000 - $75,000
2. Accountant/Auditor Bachelor’s degree $40,000 - $82,000
3. Computer Systems Analyst Bachelor’s degree $50,000 - $97,000
4. Computer Support Specialist Associate’s degree $31,000 - $62,000
5. Software Engineer Bachelor’s degree $62,000 - $113,000
6. Computer Programmer Bachelor’s degree $45,000 - $97,000
7. Financial Manager Bachelor’s degree $63,000 - $138,000
8. Computer Network Admin Bachelor’s degree $44,000 - $82,000
9. Civil Engineer Bachelor’s degree $53,000 - $107,000
10. Pharmacy Technician Moderate training $23,000 - $34,000
11. Medical Manager Master’s degree $53,000 - $109,000
12. Financial Analyst Bachelor’s degree $47,000 - $96,000
13. Pharmacist Master’s degree $90,000 - $122,000
Texas Job Posting Activity: The Conference Board HWOL
Where The Job Postings Are Located?Metro Area Postings Metro Area Postings
Dallas-Fort Worth 166,078 Odessa 5,301
Houston-Sugar Land 129,406 Waco 5,280
San Antonio 55,978 Beaumont 5,274
Austin-Round Rock 53,225 Midland 4,835
El Paso 12,264 Amarillo 4,742
Corpus Christi 9,831 College Station 4,519
Killeen-Temple 7,885 Longview 3,796
McAllen-Edinburg 7,053 Abilene 3,776
Tyler 6,626 Brownsville 3,503
Lubbock 6,559 Laredo 2,877Based on Job Postings listed online for previous 90 days as Feb. 20, 2012, compiled by Wanted Analytics and the Conference Board for TWC
Texas HWOL Job Postings Last 90 Days April 2012 Occupational Title Postings Preferred education
1. Registered Nurse 30,836 Associate’s/Bachelors
2. Truck Driver (heavy/tractor trailer) 18,497 Short term OJT
3. Retail Salesperson 15,803 Short term OJT
4. Computer Systems Analyst 15,574 Bachelor’s degree
5. Manager of Retail Workers 14,919 Related Work Experience
6. Customer Service Representative 12,674 Moderate OJT
7. Web Developer 12,598 Associate’s degree
8. Computer Support Specialist 11,776 Associate’s degree
9. Manager of Food Prep Workers 10,721 Related Work Experience
10. Accountant 9,825 Bachelor’s degree
11. Non-technical Sales Rep, WH & Man 9,627 Related Work Experience
12. Network/Computer Systems Admin 9,613 Bachelor’s degree
13. Secretary/Admin Assistant 9,510 Moderate OJT
Jobs Titles That Didn’t Exist Just 5 Years Ago Job Title Job Title
1. App Developer 11. Content Developer/Manager
2. Market Researcher Data Miner 12. Product Blogger
3. Educational Admissions Consultant 13. Disaster Recovery IT Manager
4. User Experience Designer 14. Cyborg Anthropologist
5. Social Media Manager 15. Interior Redesigner
6. Chief Listening Officer 16. Chief Sustainability Officer
7. Cloud Computing Operations Manager 17. Energy Manager
8. Elder Care Services Consultant 18. Senior Citizen Move Manager
9. Search Engine Optimization Manager 19. Patient Advocate
10. Millennial Generation Consultant 20. Online Reputation Manager
Source: Forbes magazine and Monster.com
Education Requirement 2011 WIT Job Applicants
HWOL 2011 Postings
Doctoral Degree 0.6% .8%
Professional Degree 0.3% 1.6%
Masters Degree 0.9% 3.6%
Bachelor’s + Work Experience 3.4% 7.8%
Bachelor’s Degree 8.5% 22.7%
Associate’s Degree 2.0% 10.0%
Post-secondary Vocational 4.0% 9.3%
Job related work experience 5.4% 9.2%
Long-term On The Job training 6.2% 4.4%
Medium-term On The Job training 22.4% 15.4%
Short-term On The Job training 46.3% 15.3%Source: Help Wanted On Line listings for Texas and Texas Workforce Commission listings for Work In Texas database
Education Mismatch: Texas Unemployed vs. Job Postings
Highest Earning College Programs 2010 SummaryBachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings
Engineering 4,554 $51,131Health Professions & Related Clinical Sciences 7,644 $50,813Engineering Technologies/Technicians 951 $46,075Computer & Information Sciences 1,356 $44,408Business, Management & Marketing 21,153 $36,261Mathematics and Statistics 914 $33,296Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies 10,082 $31,888Physical Sciences 1,103 $30,828Liberal Arts & Sciences/Humanities 2,359 $30,074Teacher Education & Development /Special Ed 1,505 $29,594Agriculture & Agriculture Operations 1,804 $28,195Unknown or Undeclared 2,247 $27,812Public Administration & Social Service 1,174 $27,456Security & Protective Services 2,783 $27,039Social Sciences 6,227 $26,795
Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail ViewBachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings
Petroleum Engineering 271 $84,961Quality Control/Safety Technology 30 $61,113Chemical Engineering 405 $60,791Ocean Engineering 71 $59,411Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 4,745 $59,359Electrical & Electronic Engineering 111 $55,332Mechanical Engineering 1,224 $53,307Construction Engineering 54 $50,594Health Diagnostic & Treatment Professions 375 $49,202Engineering Science 29 $48,601Computer Systems Networking/Telecomm 26 $48,411Computer Engineering, General 189 $47,815Engineering, General 41 $47,751Computer Systems Analysis 114 $47,747Information Technology Admin & Mgmt 64 $47,524
Lowest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail ViewBachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings
Pastoral Counseling & Specialized Ministries 60 $15,205Germanic Languages & Literature 46 $17,444Film/Video and Photographic Arts 142 $17,619Dramatic/Theatre Arts & Stagecraft 529 $18,304Classical Languages, Literatures & Linguistics 35 $18,342English Composition 44 $19,903Religious Education 56 $20,122Ecology, Evolution and Population Biology 87 $20,156Anthropology 460 $20,310Radio, Television & Digital Communication 983 $20,413Health/Medical Preparatory Programs 93 $20,547Parks & Recreation Facilities Management 139 $20,558Bible/Biblical Studies 55 $20,860Zoology/Animal Biology 102 $21,372Fine and Studio Art 1,347 $21,464
Highest Earning Associate’s Degree Programs 2010Associate’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings
Fire Protection 157 $68,275Nuclear Radiologic Technology 33 $63,908Electrical & Power Transmission Installers 41 $55,835Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 5,203 $53,648Mining and Petroleum Technology 24 $50,241Physical Science Technology 457 $47,881Electromechanical /Instrumentation Technology 397 $46,151Quality Control & Safety Technology 133 $44,685Chemistry 56 $44,599Industrial Production Technology 97 $44,138Construction Engineering Technology 45 $41,789Mechanical Engineering Related Technology 29 $41,622Precision Metal Working 138 $39,817Electrical/Electronics Maintenance Technology 47 $37,500Dental Support Services & Allied Professions 352 $37,371
Structural Mismatch: 2010 Graduates Grads EarningsMulti-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other 9,536 $32,132Business Administration, Mgmt & Operations 6,056 $40,473Psychology, General 5,169 $22,613Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 4,745 $59,359Biology, General 4,517 $21,737Health and Physical Education/Fitness 3,457 $23,454Finance & Financial Mgmt Services 3,269 $37,160Accounting & Related Services 3,083 $33,583Marketing 2,884 $31,693Criminal Justice and Corrections 2,783 $27,039English Language and Literature, General 2,453 $23,124Liberal Arts, General Studies & Humanities 2,359 $30,074History, General 2,245 $24,016Political Science & Government 2,208 $25,037Public Relations & Advertising 1,772 $27,579
Trends in U.S. Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded
Emerging Markets in a Global Economy:Percent of 2009 Revenue Outside U.S.
YUM Brands 53.0%Du Pont 62.4%IBM 58.1%Boeing 42.2%Intel 80.0%Coca Cola 73.5%Corning 75.6%Emerson Electric 56.8%Accenture 56.4%Microsoft 43.4%
Hewlett-Packard 63.9%Wal-Mart 36.2% JNJ 50.2%Caterpillar 61.8%Colgate 80.0%ExxonMobil 81.8%Campbell Soup 26.1%Kellogg 26.8%3M Corporation 63.2%UPS 26.3%
Short-term Forecasted Job Growth by Region
LWDA 2010 2011 2012 AVG 2009-12
Lower Rio Grande/Brownsville 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.7%Travis County/Austin 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.4%South Texas/McAllen 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2%Alamo/San Antonio 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.1%Rural Capital/Round Rock 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.1%Permian /Midland-Odessa 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.9%Central Texas/ Killeen-Temple 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.7%Upper Rio Grande/ El Paso 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.7%Brazos Valley/ Bryan 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.5%Heart of Texas/ Waco 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.4%North Central Texas/Plano 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.3%East Texas / Tyler 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3%
Employer Hiring Progression: Shifting Business Practices
• Work existing full-time workers more hours• Move part-timers to full-time workers• Employ temporary or leased workers• Use contract workers for fixed periods• Reconsider work/hiring location based on potential
growth markets & cost structure• Outsource all non-core business functions• Consider strategic partnerships to increase sales,
limit labor liability• Take advantage of H1B and L1 visas• Add full-time domestic employees (FTE)
Percent Job Losses in Recessions 1990-2007
Optimistic
Baseline
Pessimistic
Regional employers say they want…1. Good communications skills: Can you….. Explain what you’re doing (to co-worker or customer)? Explain what you need (from a co-worker or customer)? Ability to listen to instructions?
2. Critical thinking skills (if given a sequence of events, can you determine what will probably happen next)
3. Technical knowledge (degrees needed for half of all job openings)
4. Can-do attitude / pleasant attitude (workers who are “engaged” in their work)
5. Can you work with people who are of a different age, race, gender and education level than you?
WillSoft Skills
Skills Distill
WillSoft Skills
SkillsStrong academics
High School diploma Post secondary schoolingAppropriate technical skills
Distill
WillSoft Skills
Workplace Basics! Communication skills
Getting along with othersCritical thinking
Skills Distill
WillSoft Skills
SkillsDistill
On the Job Training Informal learning
Continuing education Career Lattice
Will Willing to take a job: At lower level For a lesser wage In a different region
Soft Skills
Skills Distill
Will Willing to take a job: At lower level For a lesser wage In a different region
Soft SkillsWorkplace Basics!
Communication skills Getting along with others
Critical thinking
Skills Strong academics
High School diploma Post secondary schoolingAppropriate technical skills
Distill On the Job Training Informal learning
Continuing educationCareer Lattice
Welcome to Reality Check 2011!
