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The energy challenge adopting clean tech - how quickly will (can) Australia change?
Prof Ray Wills
Chief Executive OfficerSustainable Energy Association of Australia
Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia
Adoption of technology
The natural turnover and retirement of appliances, buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest penetration of sustainable energy into Australia by 2021.
However, adoption of sustainable energy will not be natural, with more rapid transitions favoured by: policy measures and regulation; consumer sentiment; pricing advantage.
Global renewables 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011…
World invests on average around 300-400 billion pa on energy projects of any type – conventional and renewables.
2008 - world invested more in total on renewable energy ($155 billion) than on traditional energy ($140 billion).
Almost 50% of new generation built in 2009 was renewable energy - 80 GW of renewable power capacity built compared to 83 GW of fossil fuel plants.
2010 up 32% with $211 billion investment in 2010. $260 billion in 2011, up 5% on 2010 - 5 times 2004 2008 IEA forecast build for coal globally was 64 gigawatts -
actual build in 2010 was 14 GW (build of solar in 2010 was 17 GW)!
Global renewables 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011…
36% surge in total investment in solar to $136.6 billion - double the $74.9 billion investment in wind power in 2011.
The scale of investment in solar is even more remarkable considering price of PV modules fell about 50% in 2011.
The third-largest sector for investment in 2011 after solar and wind was energy-smart technologies, including smart grid, power storage, efficiency and advanced transport with total investment of $19.2 billion.
While China has dominated investment in the last few years, USA investment surged past China in 2011 - USA was $56 billion in 2011, up 33%; China’s 2011 investment of just over $47.4 billion was marginally up from 2010.
Global renewables
Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
Building cities - China
Guangzhou13 million
Changsha7 million
Chengdu7 million
Building cities – Chongqing, China
Building cities - Korea
Seoul
Incheon
Busan
Australian renewables 2011…
The transformation of Australia’s energy mix has begun – in 2011 36% of new investment in gas and 41% in wind.
Coal-fired power generation, which currently accounts for around 75% of Australia’s total electricity generation, was only 17% of the committed new investment in power stations for the 12 months to October 2011.
This is still behind the average world-wide investment in renewable energy – China’s economy 8 times larger than Australia, investment in renewables 50 times larger!
(Australian investment less $0.7 billion in 2011 versus China investment $49 billion – to match China action, Australia would need to invest $6 billion per annum)
Roger’s diffusion curve
Technology adoption rates – US Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
Technology adoption rates
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
5 year product development cycle is appropriate for modeling the automotive industry – US NHTSA, 2010
BITRE (Aus) work argues slower uptake of 15 years. Spread of the technology to 90 % of vehicle fleet takes another 15 years.
(Also – data not tracked for unsuccessful technologies – and competing technologies might be better)
Doesn’t consider resistance to change by fossils!
Technology adoption rates
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
Marked decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication between
consumers - blogspace Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs Regulation Energy security
Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010
How clean are Europe’s cars?
Technology adoption rates
Zoepf - future automotive features could be reasonably expected to follow a similar pattern- small-scale deployment for approximately five years- exponential growth and an inflection point ten or more years after first application
Can historic deployment rates be used to describe future technologies? We should expect some similarities!
Is there an opportunity for disruptive technology entry? Beginnings of disruptive innovation may be in market
innovations, Vehicle ownership model (eg Better Place) could rapidly change
the how and what is purchased Roof top solar – companies may own the panels on your roof
Rapid change - Personal mobility
Fuel efficiency, other energy sources Transport Energy storage key New technologies may be disruptive
Private transport
Commercialvehicles
Smith Newton electric truck Mega electric diesel hybrids London Bus Haul Pak + Earthmover Mitsubishi Fuso Honda prime mover Oshkosh Military Vehicle
Electric mass transit
Siemens Bordeaux light rail
Bombardier wireless light rail
Slim Ride -15 passengers Series 700 Shinkansen
train – 285 km/h
Flying and floating fuels
February 25, 2008 – Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight
October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New Synthetic Fuel on Plane
February 14, 2011 – Qantas follows US Military to algae biofuels
September 13, 2011 – US Navy announces by 2016 Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels, is able to operate independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption
Smart grids, smart houses (and farms) Integrated energy planning
Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators
Green cities
Global Tianjin Eco-City China Ulsan Ecocity Korea Masdar City UAE
Australia City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 City of Melbourne Stirling City Centre, Perth City of Fremantle Yanchep – 2 x 100 000
Local government critical
Industry chamber for any businesses / enterprise in sustainable energy or being more sustainable
Based in Perth, almost 400 members nationally Information, communication, and networking businesses Government advocacy (lobbying) Policy development
Legislation, regs and taxation - barriers and incentives Education, skills and training Calls for government leadership - and procurement
Industry mapping Energising Kids – energy for the next generation
Available for download from www.seaaus.com.au
www.seaaus.com.au