The Energy Transition in Emerging MarketsSelect insights
February 2019
Dario Traum
Head of Policy, EMEA
1 January 30, 2019
Investment
2 January 30, 2019
Source: BloombergNEF
OECD vs non-OECD clean energy new asset finance
51 6479 91 87
108
150123
152120
69
91
111 7973
93
102
98
92
102
120
155
190
169159
201
252
221
244
222
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$ billion
OECD
Non-OECD
Non-OECD countries have recorded more investment every year since 2012
3 January 30, 2019
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes non-OECD nations, plus Chile, Mexico and Turkey.
Emerging market clean energy new asset finance
32 37 4155 59
81
116
91
118
84813
8
9
12
13
9
9
8
10
1017
11
52
6979
93 91
115
160
127
167
128
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$ billion
Non-EU Europe
Middle East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Rest of the Americas
Brazil
Rest of Asia
India
China
China’s slowdown is compensated by more investment in other regions
4 January 30, 2019
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes 100 non-OECD nations, plus Chile, Mexico and Turkey.
26 27 30 31 31 3237
29 31 30
70
77 76 73 72 72 7166
74 72 73
33
103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2008-2017
Number of countries
<$100m
>$100m
Number of countries recording more than $100 million in clean energy asset finance
Emerging market investment remains too low and too concentrated
5 January 30, 2019
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: utility scale projects are typically larger than 1.5MW. Includes 103 non-OECD nations, plus Chile, Mexico and Turkey.
9
1720
2730
3235
3840
44 4547
53 54
2 2 35
810
17
25
35
57
6365
76
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Number of emerging markets with at least one solar/wind asset finance
Wind
Solar
Number of developing nations with at least one utility-scale solar/wind clean energy financing, 2004-2017
The continuous decline in the cost of PV has opened many emerging markets to the technology
6 January 30, 2019
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: nominal yearly investment figures used against 2017 GDP.
Germany
JapanSpain
U.K.
U.S.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
5-year renewables asset finance as a share of 2017 GDP
Five-year clean energy asset finance as a share of 2017 GDP in major OECD nations
7 January 30, 2019
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: nominal yearly investment figures used against 2017 GDP.
Brazil
Chile
China
India
Mexico
Turkey
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
5-year renewables asset finance as a share of 2017 GDP
Five-year clean energy asset finance as a share of 2017 GDP in leading developing nations
Energy transition leaders amongst emerging markets have recorded higher investment levels
relative to the size of their economy than their OECD peers
8 January 30, 2019
Capacity and
generation
9 January 30, 2019
Source: BloombergNEF, Climatescope. Note: non-fossil fuel and non-wind/solar capacity additions were accounted for by nuclear, geothermal, biomass, and large hydro
projects.
Share of annual capacity additions by technology in emerging markets
Wind and solar
Fossil fuels
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2017 was the first time solar and wind installations toped fossil fuels across emerging markets
10 January 30, 2019
Source: BloombergNEF, Climatescope
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Uruguay
Honduras
Costa Rica
Morocco
Chile
Brazil
Germany
Japan
U.S.
Share of wind and solar generation in select markets
Emerging markets count amongst the world leaders in solar and wind penetration
11 January 30, 2019
Source: BloombergNEF, Climatescope
4.5 4.9 5.3 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4
2.22.2
2.22.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.61.7
1.81.9
2.0 2.1 2.1 2.22.3
0.50.5
0.50.5 0.5 0.6
0.60.7
1010
1112 12
1313
14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
'000 TWh
Geothermal
Fossil Fuels (Other)
Solar
Biomass & Waste
Small Hydro
Wind
Oil & Diesel
Nuclear
Large Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Annual generation by technology in emerging markets
12 January 30, 2019
Source: BloombergNEF, Climatescope
68% 13% 3% 3% 4%
China India Russia South Africa Indonesia Ukraine
Turkey Taiwan Vietnam Kazakhstan Other
Coal cumulative installed capacity in emerging markets by country
The coal challenge in emerging markets is highly concentrated
13 January 30, 2019
Foreign investment
14 January 30, 2019
Source: BloombergNEF
10-year foreign renewables asset finance by region, $ billion
Latin America and its renewables auctions programs have attracted the most foreign investor interest
15 January 30, 2019
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes 100 non-OECD nations, plus Chile, Mexico and Turkey.
Region of origin of emerging market foreign direct investment
Europe’s utilities and development banks are the most active foreign investors in emerging markets
16 January 30, 2019
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