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University Extension
The Future of Agriculture in Iowa
Ames Rotary
Ames, IowaApril 5, 2010
Chad HartAssistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
University Extension
Iowa’s Agricultural Rankings
Source: USDA-NASS
1st: Corn ProductionSoybean ProductionField Crop ValueEgg ProductionHog InventoryHog Value on FarmCommercial Hog SlaughterCrop Harvested Area
2nd: Pig CropRed Meat ProductionTotal Crop Value
3rd: Number of Farms
4th: Net Farm IncomeAlfalfa Hay ProductionSteers – 500 Lbs. & Over
5th: Oat ProductionCattle & Calves on Feed
6th: Heifers – 500 Lbs. & Over
7th: All Cattle & Calves
8th: All Hay ProductionAll Sheep & Lambs
10th: Land in FarmsCalf CropTurkeys Raised
University Extension
Iowa Farms and Farmland
Source: USDA-Census of Ag.
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
1,0
00 f
arm
s
30
30.5
31
31.5
32
32.5
33
33.5
Mil
lio
n a
cre
s
Farms Acres
University Extension
Age and Farm Values
Source: USDA-Census of Ag.
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Ye
ars
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
$1,0
00
Age Farm Value
University Extension
Iowa Hog Operations
Source: USDA-Census of Ag.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
1,0
00
farm
s
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
Mil
lio
n h
ea
d
Farms w/ Hogs Number of Hogs
University ExtensionSource: USDA-NASS
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1,0
00
acr
es
Corn Soybeans Hay OatsWheat Barley Potatoes RyeFlaxseed Sorghum Sugarbeets Sweet Potatoes
Crop Shifts
University Extension
U.S. Corn Supply and Use
Source: USDA
2007 2008 2009
Area Planted (mil. acres) 93.5 86.0 86.5
Yield (bu./acre) 150.7 153.9 164.9
Production (mil. bu.) 13,038 12,092 13,131
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,304 1,624 1,673
Imports (mil. bu.) 20 14 10
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 14,362 13,729 14,814
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,913 5,246 5,550
Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,049 3,677 4,300
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,338 1,276 1,265
Exports (mil. bu.) 2,437 1,858 1,900
Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,737 12,056 13,015
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,799
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.20 4.06 3.60
FeedFuel
Food
University Extension
Population2008 2020 2050
(billion) (billion) (billion)World 6.678 World 7.601 World 9.393
China 1.330
China 1.431
India 1.808
India 1.148
India 1.362
China 1.424
U.S. 0.304 U.S. 0.336 U.S. 0.420Indonesia 0.238
Indonesia 0.268
Nigeria 0.357
Brazil 0.192
Brazil 0.212
Indonesia 0.313
Pakistan 0.168
Pakistan 0.204
Bangladesh 0.280
Bangladesh 0.154
Bangladesh 0.190
Pakistan 0.278
Russia 0.141
Nigeria 0.184
Brazil 0.228
Nigeria 0.138
Russia 0.132 Congo 0.189
Japan 0.127
Mexico 0.125
Mexico 0.148
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,International Data Base
University Extension
Liquid Fuel Usage2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per
Day) (Percent of 2006 Value)
United States 20.7 95% 98% 98% 100% 105%
Canada 2.3 100% 100% 100% 104% 109%
Mexico 2.1 71% 81% 90% 95% 100%
Europe 15.7 92% 92% 95% 96% 96%
Japan 5.2 88% 92% 96% 92% 90%
China 7.2 118% 139% 168% 192% 213%
India 2.7 89% 115% 144% 159% 174%
Africa 3.0 117% 120% 123% 127% 130%
Central and South America 5.7 116% 116% 119% 125% 133%
World 85.0 102% 107% 113% 119% 125%
Source: Energy Information Administration
University Extension
BiomassWind
Solar
Alternative Sources
University ExtensionSource: Liebman
University Extension
Biobased Pathways
Source: USDA, 2008, U.S. Biobased Products: Market Potential and Projections Through 2025
University ExtensionSource: ISU Extension
University ExtensionSource: Cassman, U. of Neb.
University ExtensionSource: ISU Extension
Drying of DDG can be 30% of the energy costs of ethanol production
Fertilizer is ½ of the energy used in corn production.
University Extension
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/