IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The Global EV Outlook 2019 – life-cycle analysis
ITF workshop “LCA of urban transport business models”, 1 October 2019, Paris
Marine Gorner, International Energy Agency
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The Clean Energy Ministerial Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)
Members
(2018-19)
(Co-lead) (Co-lead)
Coordinator
Activities
Analytical publications Commitments
•
EV3@30 Campaign (2017)
• Paris Declaration on Electro-
Mobility and Climate Change
(COP 21)
• Government Fleet Declaration
(COP 22)
Collaborative projects
• Global EV Pilot City Programme
• € 4 million global electric mobility
project for emerging economies
(with UNEP and the GEF)
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 – Contents
The 2019 edition includes:
• Updated EV market statistics (EV stock, sales EVSE)
• Overview of existing policies and targets
• Analysis of industry rollout plans (EV, EVSE, batteries)
• Role of EVs in low carbon scenarios (2030 timeframe and beyond)
• Implications on EVSE deployment, battery capacity and material demand)
• Electricity demand, oil displacement and WTW GHG emission mitigation
• Comparative life cycle GHG emissions assessment for different powertrains
• Battery technology and cost assessment
• Implications on the TCO of road vehicles
• EV battery materials and supply chain sustainability discussion
• Implications of electric mobility for the power system
• Impact of EVs uptake on government revenues from taxation
https://webstore.iea.org/global-ev-outlook-2019
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – methodology
The life cycle assessment of cars’ GHG emissions in the Global EV Outlook 2019
results from the combination of GREET 2 and the Mobility Model.
Life-cycle GHG emissions assessment of cars for GEVO 2019
(global perspective)
Vehicle emissions from materials
(manufacturing, maintenance,
disposal/recycling)
Tool: GREET 2
Developed by Argonne National Lab
Vehicle emissions from fuel use
for motion
Tool: Mobility Model and GFEI analysis
Developed by International Energy Agency
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
GREET 2
• Passenger cars, SUVs, Pick-up trucks
→ 3 sizes (based on GFEI)
• ICE, HEV (Ni-MH), BEV (Li-ion), PHEV (Li-ion),
FCEV (Ni-MH)
• Battery size 11kWh (PHEV), 38kWh (BEV 200
km), 78 kWh (BEV 400 km)
• LMO, NMC 111, LFP, NMC 622, NMC 811,
LMR-NMC, NCA
• Vehicle lifetime 15 000 km/year, 10 years
• Conventional materials, lightweight materials
(GHG emissions intensity of materials and
processes: US scope)
Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – key parameters
The combination of both models allowed for the life-cycle comparison of GHG emissions for 5
powertrain types and 3 vehicle sizes, in conditions considered to be representative of the global average.
Mobility Model
• WLTP fuel economy by powertrain, by car size,
based on GFEI
• BEV and PHEV fuel economy on electricity
includes 5% charging losses
• E-driving rate of PHEVs: 60% electric
• Global average well-to-wheel GHG emissions
of gasoline
• Global average and regional GHG emissions of
electricity generation, transmission and
distribution
Red and Blue: inputs and assumptions used in Global
EV Outlook 2019 analysis
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – batteries
A rate of 75 kg CO2-eq/kWh was considered representative of current commercial battery manufacturing.
A 50-150 range was also taken into account in the analysis to encompass other possible cases.
1. Literature review
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
Ellingsen et al.
(2014)
Majeau-
Bettez et al.
(2011)
Kim et al.
(2016)
US-EPA
(2013)
Lastoskie et
al. (2015)
GREET 2018 Dunn et al.
(2016)
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(kg
CO
₂-eq
/kW
h)
or
batt
ery
energ
y d
ensi
ty (
Wh/k
g)
Energ
y use
(M
J/kW
h)
Battery energy density (right axis)Energy use (left axis)GHG emissions (right axis)GHG emissions range used in our sensitivity analysis
2. Research on GREET approach: battery pack manufacturing 75 kg CO2/kWh, NMC 111, plant size 2GWh and capacity
factor 75% (representative of current commercial battery manufacturing)
3. Validation of GREET approach as satisfactory proxy for current commercial manufacturing globally, in this exercise.
Possibility for regional refinement in future analysis.
(2014) Bettez et al.
(2011)
(2016) (2013) al. (2015)
Battery energy density (right axis)Energy use (left axis)GHG emissions (right axis)GHG emissions range used in our sensitivity analysis
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – results
With the global average GHG intensity of electricity generation, EVs, FCEVs and HEVs have similar performance.
If electricity generation decarbonises, GHG emissions of BEVs and PHEVs can significantly decline.
Life-cycle GHG emissions for passenger cars by powertrain, 2018
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV
t CO2-eq Effect of larger
battery (+ 200 km)
Tank-to-wheel fuel
cycle
Well-to-tank fuel
cycle
Vehicle cycle -
batteries (200 km)
Vehicle cycle -
assembly, disposal
and recycling
Vehicle cycle -
components and
fluids
Variability relative
to vehicle size
H2 production pathway
assumption: steam
methane reforming from
natural gas
(representative of
current production)
(Large car)
(Small car)
(Medium car)
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – sensitivity to mileage
Life-cycle GHG emissions savings for BEVs kick-in from 25 000 – 60 000 km depending on driving
range.
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000
Life
-cyc
le G
HG
em
issi
ons
savi
ng
s o
f a m
id-
size
BEV
and
HEV
rela
tive
to
an IC
E v
ehic
le.
Mileage over vehicle lifetime (km)
BEV - range
200 km
BEV - range
400 km
HEV
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – sensitivity to size
GHG emissions savings from electric vehicles relative to equivalent ICE vehicles increase with size
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
70 110 200
tCO2eq
Vehicle power (kW)
ICE
PHEV (30% e-driving)
PHEV (70% e-driving)
BEV (400 km range)
BEV (200 km range)
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions – sensitivity to power mix
Over their life cycle, the extent of GHG emissions savings of BEVs relative to ICE vehicles depends on
the carbon intensity of electricity generation for final use and the size of the car.
Life-cycle GHG emissions savings of a BEV relative to an ICE vehicle of the same size under various power system carbon intensities
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Carbon intensity of the power system (g CO₂-eq/kWh)
Large car (BEV battery manufacturing 50-150 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)
Mid-size car (50-150 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)
Small car (50-150 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)
Mid-size car (range 200 km, BEV battery manufacturing 75 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)
Mid-size car (400 km, 75 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)
Note: in this graph, only
the GHG emissions from
fuel use for motion vary
according to the x axis
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Possible future research areas
• Addition of significant materials recycling rates, in
particular for batteries (potential tradeoff between raw
materials production energy use and recycling energy use)
• Variation of materials/battery production for some
materials (e.g. aluminum) based on e.g. plant scale, region
→ Kelly, Dai and Wang, Aug. 2019 - ANL: regionalization of
battery manufacturing process and material supply chains
• Evolution of emissions based on IEA scenarios for ICE
improvement and power system decarbonisation potential
• Consideration of next generation battery technologies and
chemistries
There is scope for refining the analysis in particular with regards to regionalisation, bearing in mind the
trade-off with increased complexity.
GHG emissions associated with NMC111 LIB
production in five countries
Source: Kelly, Dai & Wang, Argonne National Laboratory, 2019
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Assessing electric cars on a lifecycle basis
In order for life-cycle GHG emissions of BEVs to break even with HEVs, the carbon intensity of the electricity consumed in
the use phase must be lower than when comparing BEVs with ICE vehicles.
Life-cycle GHG emissions savings of a BEV relative to an HEV of the same size under various power system carbon intensities
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Carbon intensity of the power system (g CO₂-eq/kWh)
Large car (BEV battery manufacturing 50-150 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)
Mid-size car (50-150 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)
Small car (50-150 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)
Mid-size car (range 200 km, BEV battery manufacturing 75 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)
Mid-size car (400 km, 75 kg CO₂-eq/kWh)
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Battery chemistries affect EVs’ life-cycle GHG emissions
The mix of active materials in the cathode is the main determinant of battery manufacturing emissions.
The NMC 111 chemistry is the most GHG-intensive of the five chemistries shown and LFP is the lowest.
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
28%
32%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
LFP NCA NMC811 NMC622 NMC111
% o
f to
tal life
-cycl
e G
HG
em
issi
ons
kgCO2eq/kWh Other
Copper
Graphite/Carbon
Electronic parts
Aluminum
Cathode active material
Battery assembly
BEV 200 km range (right axis)
BEV 400 km range (right axis)
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Electric mobility increases demand for new materials
In both scenarios, demand for cobalt, lithium, manganese and nickel are expected to rise significantly
by 2030. Scale-ups in supply are needed to enable the projected EV uptake.
Increased annual demand for materials for batteries from deployment of electric vehicles by scenario, 2018-30
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
NPS EV30@30
2018 2030
Meta
l Dem
and
(kt
)
Cobalt
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
NPS EV30@30
2018 2030
Lithium
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
NPS EV30@30
2018 2030
Manganese
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
NPS EV30@30
2018 2030
Nickel class I
Note: The battery chemistry mix considered for 2030 in this analysis is composed of 10% of NCA, 40% of NMC 622 and 50% of NMC 811