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The Horizon ReportThe Horizon Report
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Malcolm B. Brown, Dartmouth CollegeJulie K. Little, EDUCAUSE Learning Initiative
5 June 2008, E-Live!
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Today’s SessionToday’s Session
1. History and Purpose
2. The Process
3. Inside the Horizon Report
4. Putting the Horizon Report to Work for You
HistoryHistory
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5 Annual Reports
(2004-2008)
Intended for Institutional Leadership(brief format)
Released under
Language translations
introduced ‘07 (Spanish & Catalan)
Evolution of StructureKey Trends & Critical Challenges (‘06)
Metatrends (‘08)Horizon Project Community (wiki & tags)
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Chris Lott: http://www.flickr.com/photos/fncll/2233514275/
5 Years of the Horizon Report 5 Years of the Horizon Report
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Purpose Purpose
It’s a forecast targeting six emerging technologies considered on three different adoption "horizons."
In the next year
In 2-3 years
In 4-5 years
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Core questionCore question
What six emerging technologies or practices will likely enter into mainstream use in the next one to five years?
What six emerging technologies or
practices will likely enter into
mainstream use in the next
one to five years?
Variety of perspectivesVariety of perspectives
• Adobe Systems• Apple, Inc• California State Monterey Bay• Case Western• CNI• Cornell University• Dartmouth College• Educause Learning Initiative• Forbes, Inc.• Hong Kong U of Science and Tech• IBM Almaden Research Center• Information Week• JISC (UK)• MIT• UC Berkeley• Nagoya University (Japan)
• New Media Consortium• New York University• NITLE• Ohio State • Qatar Academy (Qatar)• Stanford • Texas State University• U Maryland• Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (Spain)• U of British Columbia (Canada)• U of Mary Washington• U of Missouri-Kansas City• U of Queensland (Australia)• U of Wollongong (Australia)• Westwood Schools Camilla
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What established technologies should be in use today?
What established consumer technologies should be candidates for deployment?
What are the key emerging technologies for the 3-5 year horizon?
What are our key challenges over the next five years?
What are the key trends that will shape us?
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Step 4Step 4
Reponses and research results sorted into adoption horizons
Near-term horizon (1 year or
less)
Near-term horizon (1 year or
less)
Medium-term
horizon (2-3 years)
Medium-term
horizon (2-3 years)
Long-term horizon (4-5 years)
Long-term horizon (4-5 years)
Step 5Step 5Near-term horizon (1 year or
less)
Near-term horizon (1 year or
less)
Medium-term
horizon (2-3 years)
Medium-term
horizon (2-3 years)
Long-term horizon (4-5 years)
Long-term horizon (4-5 years)
Short list of 12Short list of 12
Final 6Final 6 16
80 candidates80 candidates
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2008 HR: Grassroots Video 2008 HR: Grassroots Video
• Time to adoption: Within a year• Tools for creating video are easer
(and cheaper) to use• Implications for HiEd• Examples:
– Faculty-created video: Mobius Transformations Revealed Arnold & Rogness, University of Minnesota
– Student-created video: "What would your ideal education look like?" ELI 2008 Annual Meeting Student Content Showcase
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2008 HR: Social Operating Systems
2008 HR: Social Operating Systems
• Time to adoption: 4-5 years
• Applications that bring together information and services based on a single contact
• Implications for HiEd
• Examples:– Team ORCA at Carnegie Mellon
– Yahoo Prototype
The HR is about innovationThe HR is about innovation
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• Describes new and emerging practices and technology
• Describes “change forces”
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You can participate; it’s 2.0You can participate; it’s 2.0
• Comment on the 2008 Report: – http://wp.nmc.org/horizon2008/
• Contribute to the ongoing research agenda: – http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Research_Agenda
• Contribute to the del.icio.us tagging:– http://del.icio.us/tag/hz08+video– http://del.icio.us/tag/hz08+virtualcollab
– http://del.icio.us/tag/hz08+mobile etc.
• Nominate someone for the Advisory Board– http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Nominees_for_the_2009_Horizon
_Project_Advisory_Board
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Can jump start the innovation process
Can jump start the innovation process
Offers likely targets for innovation
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Jump startingJump starting
Analyze any of the highlighted technologies for its adoption potential at your institution
Jump startingJump starting
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Take any one of the technologies and ask:– what is missing for this technology or practice
to be implemented at your institution?– what kind of additional research needs to be
done concerning this technology?– what would be the ramifications and
opportunities for learning if this technology were adopted?
Spawn local HR-like processesSpawn local HR-like processes
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• Local study groups
• Virtual study groups– K-12 student annotations– Flat classroom
• Follow up on the leads in the HR
• Participate in the del.icio.us tagging cloud
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Use to support proposalsUse to support proposals
• Local funding requests
• Foundations and funding agencies
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Strategic planningStrategic planning
• Medium and longer term horizons
• Trends and challenges
• Example sites
URLs and resourcesURLs and resources
• Download the Report– EDUCAUSE– New Media Consortium
• Web version• Horizon Project wiki• Horizon Report
methodology• Short list for 2008
Report
• Localizations– Australia and Australasia– Museums– K-12 annotation project– Flat Classroom
• Horizon Project call to scholarship
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