Federal Department of Economic Affairs,
Education and Research EAER
State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO
The Impacts of Digital
Technology on Employment
Dominik Hauri
Economist, State Secretariat for Economic Affairs Switzerland
11th WAPES WORLD CONGRESS (WWC) 2018
Friday 20 April 2018
Economic Policy Directorate
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Agenda
1. Digitalisation – what’s new?
2. New work paradigms
3. Success factors for mastering the change
4. Summary
2
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
DIGITALISATION – WHAT’S
NEW?
1.
3
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
At the dawn of the 4th industrial revolution
4
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Are our jobs disappearing?
5
201619781964
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Constant structural transformation –
SwitzerlandNumber of people employed (in thousands, right axis)
Proportion of total people employed in sector (in %, left axis)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Primary sector Secondary sector Tertiary sector
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Skills-driven growth in employment
7
860
44
11
-113
-38
222
-186
215
487
238
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000
TOTAL
Elementary occupations
Plant and machinery operators andassemblers
Craft and related trade workers
Skilled agricultural workers and forestryworkers
Service workers and sales workers
Clerks and related occupations
Technicians and associate professionals
Academic professions
Managers
Employment trend, 1996-2017 (2nd quarter), in thousands
High-skilled
+940,000
Medium-skilled
-114,000
Unskilled
+55,000
Source: FSO/SLFS, special analysis by SECO
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Increase in non-routine tasks
8
Source: FSO/SLFS, JOBSTAT survey, Rütter Soceco
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Non-routine,analytical
Non-routine,interactive
Routine, cognitive
Routine,manual
Non-routine,manual
Non-routine,service
1996 2015
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
NEW WORK PARADIGMS
2.
9
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
More flexibility in working arrangements
10
Location
Time
Operations
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Rise of precarious employment
relationships?
11
On-call work... ...fixed-term contracts...
...sole practitioner... ...at low wages?
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Significance of new work paradigmsProportion of workforce by form of employment 2005-2017
12
Notes: (1) most current figure 2016 annual average instead of 2nd quarter 2017, (2) subcomponents of employees in the employment
relationship
Source: FSO/SLFS, special analysis by SECO
83
,1%
8,0
%
1,9
% 6,4
%
6,5
%
83
,3%
7,7
%
2,1
% 5,6
%
7,2
%
84
,4%
7,2
%
2,5
%
5,1
%
7,6
%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Employees in anemploymentrelationship
Sole practitioners Fixed-termemployment
(< 6 months) (2)
On-call work (1), (2) Employed individualswith several employers
(2)
2005 2010 2017
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Complex distinction between self-
employed and employed
Characteristics of self-
employed activity:
• Substantial investments off one’s own
back
• Own business premises
• Freedom to organise working time
• Hiring of employees
• Bear business risk
• Acting for several individuals in own
name and on own account
• Other...
13
Characteristics of
employed activity:
• Tied to the business
• Part of a remote hierarchy
• Directed by others and bound by
instructions
• Supervision
• No specific business risk
• Other...
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
SUCCESS FACTORS FOR
MASTERING THE CHANGE
3.
14
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Successful change is based on several
pillars
15
Seize
opportunities,
minimise
risks
Target-oriented social
security system
Attractive place for
employment
Leading hub of
innovation and
research
High permeability of
the education system
Functioning social
partnership
Stable environment:
Monetary and fiscal
policies
Flexible labour market
Pro-active labour
market policy
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Enabling unemployment insurance
Educational measures
• Courses
• Apprenticeship host companies
• Vocational training
Employment measures
• Programmes for temporary employment
• Motivational semesters (SEMO)
• Internships
Special measures
• Training allowances
• Back-to-work allowances
• Contributions to commuting costs, including weekly commuters
• Support in promotion of self-employment
16
Focus on
education
Focus on
education
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Challenge of flexicurity 4.0
• Objectives:
• Well-conceived social security, focus on
the employed with difficult
circumstances
• Cushion adverse shocks
• Challenge:
• Does it cover non-standard/new work
paradigms?
17
Social security
Flexibility
• Objectives:
• Quantitative and price flexibility, market-
oriented education
• Enable structural change
• Challenge:
• Distinction between the status of self-
employed – employed?
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
SUMMARY
4.
18
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Swiss Federal Council focus areas
19
• Continuing education of low-skilled and especially older
employees, targeted increase in basic skills
• Improved availability of data on new work paradigms and adult
skills
• Monitoring and reporting on relevant trends in the context of
digitalisation of the labour market – report in five years
• Analysis and recommendations related to making social
insurance more flexible / social security law
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Digitalisation a “moving target”
20
“It is not our job to predict the future,
but to be prepared for it.”
Pericles (circa 500 – 429 BC)
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
APPENDIX
21
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Effects on skills requirements
22
Experience with using IT in day-
to-day work
e.g. using software, researching and processing information online
Capabilities to develop new IT
technologies
e.g. coding, managing networks, developing applications
Complementary skills
e.g. Problem-solving capabilities, communication, processing complex information
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
New work models
23
Routine tasks
Cognitive tasks
Digital
Physical
Crowd-
funding
Crowd-
lendingClickwork
Profess-
ional
services
Personal
services
Trades
people
Transport
Accom-
modation
Labour in
tensiv
eCapital in
tensiv
e
Manual tasks
The Impacts of Digital Technology on EmploymentWBF/SECO/Economic Policy Directorate – Dominik Hauri
Drivers of the “new” digitalisation
• Digital data and interconnectedness
(mobile internet, internet of things, big data etc.)
• Advances in automation
(adaptive manufacturing, 3D printers etc.)
• Online platforms and new business models
24
