The Importance of Science to Market Transformation

How a remarkably small band of gifted scientistssound the alarm and motivate government and business

to save the world for future generations

Personal Perspectives & Insights Stephen O. Andersen

Climate Protection Partnerships Division

Preview

• Science sounded the ozone alarm

• Citizens motivated governments to act

• Governments guided public & corporate action

• Executives were ozone champions

• Partnerships transformed markets

• Strategies from Montreal for Kyoto

• Together we can protect the Earth

Ozone Science Was More Than Science

• Genius scientists postulated theory of ozone depletion, predicted Earth’s future, and sounded the alarm--risking reputations

• Scientists all over the world perfected the theory, tested the hypothesis, and advanced the literature--keeping the flame alive

• Activist scientists debunked critics, engaged governments, and motivated politicians and the public

• Forensic atmospheric scientists found the Antarctic ozone hole, chemical fingerprints and smoking guns

• Science Assessment Panel Scientists entered the public arena, clearly and confidently, leaving policy makers with no doubt about what must be done

Ozone Science

• Set the Stage: Silent Spring, Supersonic Transport, Spaceship Earth…

• Built the Foundation: Johnston, Crutzen…

• Sounded the Alarm: Molina & Rowland

• Called for Action: Rowland, Molina & NRDC

• Sustained Alert: Tolba & UNEP Unsung Heroes

• Ended Doubt: Solomon, Anderson, Others…

• Guided Action: Albritton, Watson…

• Re-Invigorated: Paul Newman…and company

Rewards of Excellent Science

• Jump-Started Diplomacy

• Motivated Business Response

• Uncompromised Ozone Protection: – Better for climate protection, health & safety

• Chlorine-Equivalent ODP-Weighting: – Pragmatic pace and substance flexibility

• Renewed Annual Concern as Hole Opens

• Rapid Action with New Science

US Benefits of Ozone Protection

• Skin Cancer– Save 6.3 Million Lives & Avoid 299 Million Cases

• Cataracts– Avoid 27.5 Million Cases

• Suppression of the Human Immune System– Mitigated but Not Quantified

• Damage to Crops & Ecosystems– Avoid ~1% Reduced Yield per 1% Ozone Depletion

Hope for Children that Life Will be Good

Industry & Military Leadership

• Montreal Controls Stimulated Cooperation

• Technical Assessment by Sector Experts

• The Power of Teams Motivated by Leadership

• Bottom-Up & Inside-Out Regulation

• Industry, Military & NASA Innovation

• Just 500 Champions Over 20 Years!

• 98% Phaseout

• Light at the End of the Tunnel

Montreal Protocol Market Transformation

• 250 Sector Global ‘Market Transformation’• Heroic Science, Precautionary Principal, & Diplomacy• Industry Guided & Technology Enabled• No-Compromise Chemical Replacement

– Comprehensive environmental assessment – Improved energy efficiency– Mitigated safety & toxicity– Products with lower ownership cost, increased employment

• 98% Ozone-Depleting Substance Phaseout in 20 Years

• Inconspicuous to Customers & Citizens• Unappreciated Contribution to Climate Protection

Military & NASA Technology Saved the Stratospheric Ozone Layer

• Aerospace & Electronics Solvents– Badge of quality, undisputed cleaning performance

• Halon Fire Protection– In combat and space evacuation is not an option

• Submarine & Ship Refrigeration and AC– Reliability, toxicity, flammability

“Who can complain if NASA and DoD resolve their extraordinary ODS dependence and NATO writes to the United Nations endorsing a complete phaseout?”

• Literally Rocket Science…

Ozone Recovery• So Close…

– Alternatives are Available for Most Uses– Production is 98% Halted– Atmospheric Chemical Levels are Declining – Down-Sized Ozone Hole

• Yet So Far Away…– Recovery to 1990 Level 15-years Later Than Hoped– Ozone Layer Not ‘Healthy’ at 1990 Level – Accelerated Recovery Avoids More Skin Cancer,

Cataracts, Suppression of the Human Immune System, and Agriculture & Ecosystem Damage

Montreal & Greenhouse Gases

• 20% of Ozone-Depleting Substances (ODSs) Replaced by HFCs and PFCs Controlled by Kyoto (80% Not-in-Kind & Housekeeping)

• HFCs Replacing ODSs are Typically Lower GWP– HFC-134a (100-yr GWP ~1300) replaced CFC-12

(100-yr GWP ~8100)

destruction

Use & Banks

recycle

end of life

Production

Emissions

Montreal Emission Sources

Technically/Economically Feasible Actions To Further Protect Ozone & Climate

• Recover and Destroy Ozone-Depleting Substances in Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Fire Protection and Foam Products

• Accelerate the Phaseout of HCFCs in Developed and Developing Countries

• Reduce and Eliminate Emissions from Uses Exempted from Montreal Protocol Controls

CO2-Equivalent Halocarbon Bank Emissions

~7.5 Gt/year near 1990; about 33% of that year's global CO2 fossil fuel emissions

~2.5 Gt/year near 2000; about 10% of that year’s global CO2 fossil fuel emissions

1.2 Gt/year emission reduction is feasible, 2005 to 2015; about 5% of Kyoto 1990 baseline with co-benefits of advancing ozone recovery by 5 to 10 years

INTERGOVERNMNENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGETECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT PANEL

Extraordinary Stratospheric Ozone & Climate Benefits • Accelerate Ozone Recovery 4-6 Years!

• Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions 10% Each Year for 10 Years!

• Reward Suppliers of Alternative Technology!

• Reward Citizens with Environmentally Superior Technology that Uses Less Expensive Energy!

• Demonstrate How People and Technology Can Protect the Earth for Future Generations!

Further Reading

• S. Andersen & K.M. Sarma: Protecting the Ozone Layer, The UN History– http://shop.earthscan.co.uk/ProductDetails

• R. Benedick: Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet– http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog/BENOZD.html

• S. Andersen & D. Zaelke: Industry Genius: Inventions and People Protecting the Climate and Fragile Ozone Layer– http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/

• W.H. Lambright: NASA and the Environment: Ozone Depletion– http://history.nasa.gov/monograph38.pdf

• B. Metz et al: IPCC/TEAP Special Report (Ozone & Climate)– http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/specialrprt05/IPCC_low_en.pdf

• P. Canan & N. Reichman: Ozone Connections: Expert Networks in Global Environmental Governance– http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/

Industry Genius Inventions and People Protecting the Climate and Fragile Ozone Layer Stephen O. Andersen &

Durwood Zaelke

Forewords by Astronaut Richard Truly & UN Executive Jacqueline Aloisi de Larderel