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HyperAdvance

07/09/09

The Knowledge/Question Cycle, Futuring,

and the Future Enterprise

Bruce LaDuke

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Directional Categorization

Who What When Where Why How

Known

Unknown

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Knowledge Creation

1. Definition/Solution/Structure

(Understand Context)

2. Question/Problem

3. Logical Operation

(connects/structures/defines)

4. Result: Advanced

Definition/Solution/Structure

5. Return to step 1 Questions

Unknown

Cutting Edge

Knowledge

Creation

Knowledge

Structure

Encapsulates all forms of creativity, innovation, and problem solving

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Instructor

Learner

Knowledge Creator

Social

Accepter

Ignorant

Performance

Social

Knowledge

Base

Expression/Non-Expression

EnterpriseKC Cycle

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Singularity

Nano

Bio

Info

Cogniti

ve

Volatility

Risk

Change

Simultaneous Convergence

and Knowledge Advance

Chaos

Complexity

Volume

Upheaval

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Knowledge

Advance

KC Cycle

Balance of

Interests

Supply and

Demand

Impact

ResultSay/DoOr

Change

Decide

Know/Question

IntegralDialogue

Future Enterprise

Economy

Social

Context

Foresight Balanced

Adaptable

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HyperAdvance

Backup Slides

8/14/2019 The Knowledge/Question Cycle, Futuring, and the Future Enterprise by Bruce LaDuke

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Empiricism

Empirical Disciplines

Rationalism

Rational Disciplines

Converging

Logic

Expanding

Logic

Creation/

Invention

Rational

Method

RealityScientific

Method

Discovery

(e.g., technology, art)(e.g., chemistry, biology, physics)

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Past Present Future

Mystery creativity/tacit knowledge Creative/innovation methods One integral method

(KC process)

Aristotelian logic Fuzzy logic Three-dimensional logic

Scientific method (empiricism orrationalism) Rational (mostly creative)method Unified scientific / rationalmethod

Amass knowledge Amass/find knowledge Cooperatively work knowledge

Behavioral focus (Skinner) Emergence (collective

behavioral focus)

Structural (Peirce) and

behavioral focus

Human intelligence Artificial intelligence Artificial knowledge creation

Synchronous comm. Asynchronous comm. Ubiquitous comm.

Division of labor Division of Mental Labor Integral performance

National interests Network interests Social balance

Strategy Long range planning / futuring Integral futuring

Individual advance Simultaneous convergence

/advance

Automated advance / (Space

age or implosion)

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Increased Change and Volatility

Increased Change

1972 to 1987 - U.S. government deleted 50 industries from

its standard industrial classification. Added or refined 200

industries.

1987 to 1997 - Deleted 500. Added or refined 1,000.

Increased Volatility

1950 to 2000 - Variability in S&P 500 stock prices increased

more than tenfold.

1950s, 60s, and 70s - market fluctuation of 3% only occurred

twice a year.

Past two years - twice a month.Source: "It's Alive" by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis

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Environmental Scanning

The Delphi Method

The Futures Wheel

Trend Impact Analysis

Cross-Impact Analysis

Structural Analysis

The Systems Perspectives

Decision Modeling Statistical Modeling

Technology Sequence Analysis

Relevance Trees andMorphological Analysis

Scenarios

Interactive Scenarios

Participatory Methods

Simulation and Games

Genius Forecasting, Vision, andIntuition

Normative Forecasting

S&T Road Mapping Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR)

Text Mining for TechnologyForesight

Agent Modeling

State of the Future Index (SOFI)Method

SOFI System

The Multiple PerspectiveConcept

A Toolbox for ScenarioPlanning

Causal Layered Analysis

Integration, Comparisons, andFrontiers of Futures ResearchMethods

AC/UNU Millennium Project, Futures Research Methodology, Version 2.0, Editors Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon

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T. Irene Sanders - Chaos/Complexity

Mathematical

Complexity

Social

Complexity

Systems

ThinkingEngineeringApproach

Design

Emergent

Rules HeuristicsRemove Ambiguity Allow Ambiguity

Means of Controlling the System

Interaction

ofAgents

OutsideSystem

UnderstandingoftheSystem

Source: New Science, by T. Irene Sanders

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Transformational Leadership

Mathematical

Complexity

Social

Complexity

Systems

ThinkingEngineeringApproach

Design

Emergent

Rules Heuristics

TransformationalLeadership