16
The MarketPulse April 2020
The MarketPulseApril 2020
Volume 9, Issue 4
April 2020
Data as of February 2020 (unless otherwise stated)
News Media Contact
Lucy De Oliveira [email protected]
416-873-2727 (office)
2
The MarketPulse
Table of ContentsSingle-Family Rents Were on the Rise in Early 2020 . . . . . . . .3
Mortgage Delinquencies Started 2020 at Very Low Levels . . . .4
U .S . Home Prices Were Heating Up Prior to the Coronavirus Outbreak . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
What is the Impact of a Recession on the Housing Market? . .8
In The News . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
Charts & Graphs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
10 Largest CBSA – Loan Performance Insights Report January 2020 . . 10
Overview of Loan Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Home Price Index State-Level Detail — Combined Single Family Including Distressed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Home Price Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
CoreLogic HPI® Market Condition Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
February 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
February 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Housing Statistics April 2020
HPI® YOY Chg 4 .1%
HPI YOY Chg XD 3 .8%
NegEq Share (Q4 2019) 3 .5%
3
� Rents for lower-priced homes increased faster than those of higher-priced homes in February compared with a year earlier.
� Phoenix had the highest increase in rent in February from a year earlier.
� Rents in Detroit fell in February from a year ago.
1 Metro areas used in this report are Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Metropolitan Divisions where available. The SFRI is computed for 75 metros.
U.S. single-family rents increased 3.3% year over year in February 2020, up from the gain of 3.0% in February 2019, according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI). The index measures rent changes among single-family rental homes, including condominiums, using a repeat-rent analysis to measure the same rental properties over time. Single-family rents were on the rise in early 2020 prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, having increased by an average of 3.1% year over year for the first two months of the year. Impacts from state and local shutdowns on the rental market will be apparent in the coming months.
Using the rent index to analyze specific price tiers reveals important differences in rent growth. Figure 1 shows that the index’s overall growth in February 2020 was propped up by low-end rentals, defined as properties with rents 75% or less of the median rent of the metro area1. Rents on low-tier rental homes increased 3.6% year over year and rents for high-tier homes, defined as properties with rents more than 125% of the metro-area median rent, increased 3.0% year over year. Rents for low-tier homes have been outpacing than those of high-tier homes since
Single-Family Rents Were on the Rise in Early 2020U.S. Single-Family Rents Up 3.3% Year Over Year in February
Molly BoeselPrincipal, Economist, Office of the Chief Economist
Molly Boesel holds the title principal, economist for CoreLogic in the Office of the Chief Economist and is responsible for analyzing and forecasting housing and mortgage market trends.
Continued on page 9
Figure 1. National Single-Family Rent IndexYear-Over-Year Percent Change by Price Tier
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
SFRI Low Tier High Tier
1
1 Boesel fig 1 Subhead copy goes here
Source: CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index, February 2020
Figure 2. Single-Family Rent Index Year-Over-Year Percent Change in 20 Markets
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Phoe
nix,
AZ
Seat
tle, W
A
St. L
ouis
, MO
Bost
on, M
A
Las
Vega
s, N
V
Tucs
on, A
Z
Aust
in, T
X
Char
lott
e, N
C
Los
Ange
les,
CA
Orla
ndo,
FL
Hou
ston
, TX
Dal
las,
TX
Was
hing
ton,
DC
Atla
nta,
GA
Chic
ago,
IL
San
Die
go, C
A
Phila
delp
hia,
PA
Mia
mi,
FL
Hon
olul
u, H
I
Det
roit,
MI
1-Feb-19 1-Feb-20
2
1 Boesel fig 2 Subhead copy goes here
Source: CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index, February 2020
4
� The nation’s overall delinquency rate was 3.5% in January.
� The serious delinquency rate and the foreclosure rate have flattened out at low levels.
1 Data in this report is provided by TrueStandings Servicing. https://www.corelogic.com/products/truestandings-servicing.aspx2 The data in this report date back to January 1999 .
In January 2020, 3.5% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency1, down from 4.0% a year earlier and the lowest in more than 21 years, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. The measure, also known as the overall delinquency rate, includes all home loans 30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure. For the month of January historically, the share of delinquent mortgages peaked in 2010 at 12%. Mortgage delinquencies started the year off at very low levels, but the effects of increased unemployment from the COVID-19 outbreak won’t be evident in the mortgage delinquency numbers for many months.
The serious delinquency rate—defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure—was 1.2% in January 2020, down from 1.4% in January 2019. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate experienced since April 2000. The foreclosure inventory rate—the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process—was 0.4% in January 2020, unchanged from a year earlier. January’s foreclosure rate was the lowest for that month in at least 21 years2, a rate which has stayed constant since November 2018.
The share of mortgages that were 30 to 59 days past due—considered early-stage delinquencies—was 1.7% in
Continued on page 5
Figure 2. States With the Highest and Lowest Rate of Mortgages At Least 30 Days Past DueJanuary 2020
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Colorado
Washington
Oregon
Idaho
Montana
National
West…
Alabama
New York
Louisiana
Mississippi
30-Days-Or-More Delinquency Rate
2
2 Boesel fig 2 Subhead copy goes here
Source: CoreLogic
Figure 1. Current- to 30-Day Transition Rate
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
1
2 Boesel fig 1 Subhead copy goes here
Source: CoreLogic
Mortgage Delinquencies Started 2020 at Very Low LevelsLoan Performance Insights Report Highlights: January 2020
Molly BoeselPrincipal, Economist, Office of the Chief Economist
Molly Boesel holds the title principal, economist for CoreLogic in the Office of the Chief Economist and is responsible for analyzing and forecasting housing and mortgage market trends.
5
Mortgage Delinquencies continued from page 4
Figure 3. Percentage of Mortgages At Least 30 Days Past Due For the Ten Largest Metropolian AreasJanuary 2020
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
San Francisco
Denver
Los Angeles
Boston
Washington, DC
Las Vegas
Chicago
New York
Houston
Miami
30-Days-Or-More Delinquency Rate
3
2 Boesel fig 3 Subhead copy goes here
Source: CoreLogic
January 2020, down from 1.9% in January 2019. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.6% in January 2020, down from 0.7% in January 2019.
In addition to delinquency rates, CoreLogic tracks the rate at which mortgages transition from one stage of delinquency to the next, such as going from current to 30 days past due. Figure 1 shows that in January 2020 the current- to 30-day transition rate remained well below levels during the housing crisis. The January current- to 30-day rate was 0.6%, down from 0.8% a year earlier. The 30- to 60-day transition rate was 13.9% in January, down from 14.9% in January 2019, and the 60- to 90-day transition rate was 23.5% in January, down from 24.9% a year earlier.
Figure 2 shows the states with the highest and lowest share of mortgages 30 days or more delinquent. In January 2020, that rate was highest in Mississippi at 6.9% and lowest in Colorado at 1.5%. No states posted annual gains in their overall delinquency rate in January 2020. The states that logged the largest annual decreases
3 Metropolitan areas used in this report are the ten most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The report uses Metropolitan Divisions where available.
included Mississippi (down 1.1 percentage points and North Carolina (down 0.9 percentage points).
Figure 3 shows the 30-plus-day past-due rate for January 2020 for 10 large metropolitan areas.3 Miami had the highest rate at 4.8%. San Francisco had the lowest rate at 1.1%.
Nationally, Panama City, Fla., which was affected by Hurricane Michael in 2018, saw the largest annual decrease with a 4-percentage point drop. Chico, Calif., the site of the destructive 2018 Camp Fire, had a 2.2-percentage point drop in the annual delinquency rate.
While January 2020’s delinquency rates nationally were at their lowest levels in more than 21 years, there were 3 metropolitan areas that recorded small annual increases: Pine Bluff, Arkansas (up 0.3 percentage points); Dubuque, Iowa (up 0.2 percentage points); and Enid, Oklahoma (up 0.2 percentage points).
6
Figure 1. HPI Price Declines From PeakFirst Month of Price Decline = 100
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Cum
ulat
ive
Pric
e M
ovem
ent
Sinc
e In
cept
ion
of P
rice
Dec
line
Time in YearsUS Nominal US Real
1
3 Boesel fig 1 Subhead copy goes here
Source: CoreLogic HPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight
� National home prices increased 4.1% year over year in February.
� Connecticut was the only state to post an annual decline in home prices.
1 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Less Shelter was used to create the inflation-adjusted HPI.2 The four price tiers are based on the median sale price and are as follows: homes priced at 75% or less of the median (low price), homes priced
between 75% and 100% of the median (low-to-middle price), homes priced between 100% and 125% of the median (middle-to-moderate price) and homes priced greater than 125% of the median (high price) .
National home prices increased 4.1% year over year in February 2020, according to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) Report. The February 2020 HPI gain was up from the February 2019 gain of 4.0%, showing that prior to the COVID-19 outbreak home prices were starting to heat up.
The HPI has increased on a year-over-year basis every month since February 2012. The HPI has gained 63.6% since hitting bottom in March 2011. As of February 2020, the overall HPI was 10.1% higher than its pre-crisis peak in April 2006, just before the start of the 2007 financial crisis. Adjusted for inflation, U.S. home prices increased 2.2% year over year in February 2020 and were 11.2% below their 2006 peak1. Figure 1 shows the cumulative price movement since the inception of the 2006 price
declines for both the nominal HPI and the inflation-adjusted HPI, as well as the time in years since the first decrease in the indices.
CoreLogic analyzes four individual home-price tiers that are calculated relative to the median national home sale price2. The lowest price tier increased 6.0% year over year in February 2020, compared with 5.2% for the low- to middle-price tier, 4.5% for the middle- to moderate-price tier, and 3.6% for the high-price tier. Cumulative price gains since the 2011 trough were strongest for lower-priced homes, with the lowest price tier gaining 98.6%, the low- to middle-price tier gaining 78.7%, the middle- to moderate-price tier gaining 66.4% and the high-price tier
Continued on page 7
U .S . Home Prices Were Heating Up Prior to the Coronavirus OutbreakHome Price Index Highlights: February 2020
Molly BoeselPrincipal, Economist, Office of the Chief Economist
Molly Boesel holds the title principal, economist for CoreLogic in the Office of the Chief Economist and is responsible for analyzing and forecasting housing and mortgage market trends.
7
Figure 2. Price Growth Strongest For Lowest-Priced HomesPrice Growth Through February 2020
Since February 2019 Since 2011 Trough
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
One Year Ago Price TroughPrice Growth Since:
2
3 Boesel fig 2 Subhead copy goes here
Low Price Low-to-Middle Price
Middle-to-Moderate Price
High Price
Source: CoreLogic HPI February 2020
U.S. Home Prices continued from page 6
gaining 49.5%. Figure 2 shows the change from a year ago and from the 2011 trough for each HPI price tier.
Figure 3 shows the year-over-year HPI growth in February 2020 for the 5 highest- and lowest-appreciating states. Idaho led the states in appreciation as it has since late 2018, with annual appreciation of 11.4% this February, far above any of the other leading states. At the low end, Connecticut was the only state to see falling home prices with a 0.6% decrease from February 2019. Prices in 41 states (including the District of Columbia) have risen above their nominal pre-crisis peaks. Connecticut home prices in February 2020 were the farthest below their all-time HPI high, still 18% below the July 2006 peak. While annual price increases slowed in 20 states compared with a year earlier, the cooling was most pronounced in Utah. Prices in Utah increased by 5.6% year over year in February 2020, a 5 percentage point slowdown from the 10.6% annual increase in February 2019.
Figure 3. States With the Highest and Lowest Year-Over-Year Change in HPIFebruary 2020
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13%
Connecticut
Illinois
North Dakota
Louisiana
New York
National
Wyoming
Arizona
South Dakota
New Mexico
Idaho
Year-Over-Year Change in HPI
3
3 Boesel fig 3 Subhead copy goes here
Source: CoreLogic HPI February 2020
8
Continued on page 9
There is a widespread expectation that the U.S. as well as the whole world have entered or will be in recession amid the coronavirus pandemic. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan forecast a more than 20% US GDP contraction for next quarter1. The International Monetary Fund declared a global recession2. In this blog, the impact of the past five recessions on regional housing markets is examined and sheds some light on what may occur during this coming recession.
Figure 1 shows the percentage of markets within a region that had a more than 1% nominal home price decline one year into a recession3. As we can see from the chart, the 2007 recession, the Great Recession, was the only time we saw a nationwide housing market downturn, which didn’t come as a surprise as the Great Recession was caused by the housing bubble burst. The 2001 recession that started from the .com bubble burst had very little
1 https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-jpmorgan-cuts-gdp-forecasts-coronavirus-recession-senate-stimulus-2020-3 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-gdp-drop-record-2q-amid-coronavirus-recession-goldman-sachs-2020-3-1029018308
2 https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/28/imf-declares-global-recession-and-doubles-the-size-if-its-financial-war-chest3 Market areas were defined as Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSA). The analysis includes 954 CBSAs in the U.S.
impact on the nominal home prices. There were less than 5% of markets that had a more than 1% home price decline in the Pacific region, where the .com bubble burst. For the 1990, 1981 and 1980 recessions, some regions were affected more than others but all of them were far from a national meltdown.
Figure 2 shows the nominal home price change one year into a recession for all census regions. Even after the start of the Great Recession after the December 2007 business cycle peak, the magnitude of the home price depreciation varied region by region, ranging from about a 5% decline in the East South Central region to almost a 25% decline in the Pacific region one year into the recession. The 2001 .com bubble burst recession had never stopped the nominal home price from appreciating
What is the Impact of a Recession on the Housing Market?
Bin HePrincipal, Economist
Bin He is a principal economist with the CoreLogic Decision Analytics & Research Team (DART). Bin leads research and development of the CoreLogic Home Price Index and the CoreLogic Real Estate Analytics Suite. Bin is also responsible for the modeling that powers the CoreLogic RiskModel. Before Bin joined CoreLogic, he was director of Credit Analytics for Radian Guaranty, where he was responsible for the development and implementation of mortgage prepayment and default models.
Figure 1. Percentage of Markets with a Price Decline of more than 1% One Year into Recession
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1980
1981
1990
2001
2007
West South Central West North Central South Atlantic Pacific New England Mountain Middle Atlantic East South Central East North Central
1
4 he fig 1 Subhead copy goes here
Source: CoreLogic
9
Figure 2. Home Price Change One Year into Recession
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-0.3 -0.25 -0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
1980
1981
1990
2001
2007
West South Central West North Central South AtlanticPacific New England MountainMiddle Atlantic East South Central East North Central
2
4 he fig 2 Subhead copy goes here
Source: CoreLogic
In The News
DS News – March 17SFR Growth Propped Up by Low End Rentals“U .S . single-family rents increased 2.9% year over year in January 2020, down a bit from the gain of 3 .2% in January 2019, according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) .”
San Diego Union Tribune – March 31San Diego home prices were rising among the fastest in the nation in January. What now?“’Home buyer demand (in January) was supported by low mortgage rates and rising income, leading to a further rise in home prices,’ wrote Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic.”
Forbes – April 2Coronavirus Casts A Dark Cloud Over The Outlook For The Spring Home Buying Season“Frank Nothaft, chief economist for data analytics firm CoreLogic, said home price appreciation was in a prime economic growth state prior to the pandemic with low mortgage rates, rising family income and a lean inventory of homes for sale to kick off the year’s quick growth .”
Motley Fool – April 4Case-Shiller Numbers for January Show Which Cities Were Poised For A Big Spring“Here’s what Frank Nothaft, chief economist for data firm CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), has to say about the numbers: ‘The Case-Shiller Indexes for January show a housing market with solid momentum prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.’”
What is the Impact continued from page 9
Single-Family Rents continued from page 3
April 2014, though the difference in these two growth rates has narrowed over time.
Rent growth varies significantly across metro areas. Figure 2 shows the year-over-year change in the rental index for 20 large metropolitan areas in February 2020. Phoenix had the highest year-over-year rent growth this February as it has since late 2018, with an increase of 6.2%, followed by Seattle (+6.1%) and St. Louis (+5.4%). Detroit had a decrease in rents in February, falling by 2.2% from the prior year. Detroit also had the largest deceleration in rent growth in February, showing annual rent growth of 5.4 percentage points lower than in February 2019. Seattle had the largest acceleration in rent growth in February, with rents increasing 4.1 percentage points faster than in February 2019.
in all regions, even in the Pacific region where the .com bubble burst. For the 1990, 1981 and 1980 recessions, most regions had positive home price growth one year into the recession except for three occasions: New England and Middle Atlantic in 1990 and East North Central in 1981.
An important reason nominal home prices kept rising in the 1980 and 1981 recessions was because inflation was so high. CPI inflation was 13.5% in 1980 and 10.4% in 1981, and hence in real terms home prices fell. As a matter of fact, the only recession where real home prices kept rising was 2001 in part because the Fed began cutting rates early and injected a huge amount of money into the financial market. With the Fed’s cutting the rate to zero and huge injection of liquidity, the home price path could be like what happened in 2001, but it is too early to speculate given uncertainty about the length and severity of the pandemic.
10
Charts & Graphs
“After some initial cushioning from equity buffers, lower mortgage interest costs and government support and forbearance programs, we expect delinquency rates to jump significantly throughout the year as the economic toll from COVID-19 becomes more evident. It is likely that areas of the country that have local economies driven by energy, transportation and media and entertainment will lead the way in delinquencies.”Frank Martell President and CEO of CoreLogic
10 Largest CBSA – Loan Performance Insights Report January 2020
CBSA
30 Days or More
Delinquency Rate January
2020 (%)
Serious Delinquency Rate January
2020 (%)
Foreclosure Rate January
2020 (%)
30 Days or More
Delinquency Rate January
2019 (%)
Serious Delinquency Rate January
2019 (%)
Foreclosure Rate January
2019 (%)
Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH 2.7 0.9 0.3 3.0 1.0 0.3
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI 3.9 1.6 0.6 4.3 1.7 0.6
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO 1.5 0.4 0.1 1.7 0.4 0.1
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land TX 4.7 1.5 0.4 5.0 1.7 0.4
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV 3.1 1.3 0.5 3.5 1.5 0.6
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA 2.1 0.6 0.2 2.4 0.7 0.1
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL 4.8 1.8 0.9 5.4 2.4 0.9
New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA 4.6 2.2 1.1 5.2 2.6 1.2
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA 1.1 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV 3.0 1.1 0.3 3.6 1.2 0.4
Source: CoreLogic January 2020
Overview of Loan PerformanceNational Delinquency News
©2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
3.5
1.7
0.6
0.3
0.8 0.9
0.4
4.0
1.9
0.7
0.3
1.0 1.1
0.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Perc
enta
ge R
ate
2.78x5.93; no legend, no horizontal axis labels; 7ptloan performance jan 2020: national overview
90-119 DaysPast Due
120+ DaysPast Due
60-89 DaysPast Due
30 Days or MorePast Due
30-59 DaysPast Due
90+ Days(not in fcl)
InForeclosure
January 2019January 2020
Source: CoreLogic January 2020
11
State
Month- Over-Month
Percent Change Year-Over-Year
Forecasted Month- Over-Month
Percent Change
Forecasted Year-Over-Year Percent Change
Alabama 0.0% 4.2% 0.4% 5.4%
Alaska −0.7% 2.3% 0.3% 7.3%
Arizona 1.0% 7.3% 0.6% 5.4%
Arkansas 0.3% 3.2% 0.4% 4.3%
California 0.5% 3.5% 0.8% 11.5%
Colorado 0.8% 4.4% 0.6% 5.3%
Connecticut −0.7% −0.6% 0.2% 7.3%
Delaware −0.2% 3.2% 0.3% 4.6%
District of Columbia 0.3% 3.4% 0.4% 4.5%
Florida 0.2% 3.9% 0.5% 6.5%
Georgia 0.4% 4.7% 0.4% 4.8%
Hawaii 0.7% 3.6% 0.7% 6.6%
Idaho 1.5% 11.4% 0.6% 5.0%
Illinois −0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 6.1%
Indiana 0.8% 5.9% 0.5% 5.4%
Iowa 0.3% 2.4% 0.4% 5.2%
Kansas 0.6% 4.4% 0.4% 4.7%
Kentucky 0.0% 3.7% 0.3% 4.2%
Louisiana 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 2.6%
Maine 0.0% 5.9% 0.6% 7.2%
Maryland −0.2% 2.9% 0.3% 4.9%
Massachusetts 0.0% 4.0% 0.3% 6.8%
Michigan −0.1% 4.3% 0.4% 6.6%
Minnesota 0.2% 4.3% 0.3% 4.0%
Mississippi 0.1% 4.0% 0.2% 3.9%
Missouri 0.3% 6.4% 0.4% 5.3%
Montana 0.5% 5.7% 0.4% 7.2%
Nebraska 0.1% 4.8% 0.4% 5.1%
Nevada 0.6% 4.2% 0.9% 10.7%
New Hampshire −0.5% 5.3% 0.3% 6.9%
New Jersey −0.2% 2.5% 0.6% 6.5%
New Mexico 1.2% 9.1% 0.7% 5.2%
New York 0.8% 1.7% 0.5% 6.2%
North Carolina 0.4% 4.8% 0.4% 4.6%
North Dakota −0.7% 1.6% 0.0% 3.4%
Ohio 0.3% 5.4% 0.4% 4.9%
Oklahoma −0.4% 3.2% 0.2% 3.0%
Oregon 0.6% 4.8% 0.5% 7.0%
Pennsylvania −0.1% 3.9% 0.4% 5.3%
Rhode Island 0.4% 4.9% 0.4% 5.6%
South Carolina 0.0% 4.4% 0.4% 5.5%
South Dakota −0.3% 8.2% 0.2% 3.4%
Tennessee 0.4% 5.8% 0.4% 4.7%
Texas −0.1% 3.1% 0.2% 2.1%
Utah 1.1% 5.6% 0.6% 5.4%
Vermont −0.3% 4.3% 0.0% 5.7%
Virginia 0.2% 3.8% 0.4% 5.0%
Washington 0.7% 5.7% 0.7% 6.2%
West Virginia 0.1% 5.6% 0.4% 5.1%
Wisconsin 0.2% 5.7% 0.3% 4.7%
Wyoming 1.0% 6.9% 0.6% 5.0%
Source: CoreLogic February 2020
Home Price Index State-Level Detail — Combined Single Family Including DistressedFebruary 2020
12
Charts & Graphs (continued)
“January marked the third consecutive month that annual home price growth accelerated in our national index, as low mortgage rates and rising income supported home sales. In February, mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in more than three years, which likely will spur additional home shopping activity and price appreciation.”Dr . Frank Nothaft Chief Economist for CoreLogic
Home Price IndexPercentage Change Year Over Year
©2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Including Distressed
3.04x5.67; 7pt typehpi as of jan 2020
Source: CoreLogic February 2020
13
CoreLogic HPI® Market Condition OverviewFebruary 2020
Source: CoreLogic CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined Tier, data through February 2020. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Single Family Combined Tier, starting March 2020.
Legend
■ Normal
■ Overvalued
■ Undervalued
Forecast: CoreLogic HPI® Market Condition OverviewFebruary 2025
Source: CoreLogic CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined Tier, data through February 2020. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Single Family Combined Tier, starting March 2020.
Legend
■ Normal
■ Overvalued
■ Undervalued
14
Variable Definition
Total Sales The total number of all home-sale transactions during the month.
Total Sales 12-Month sum The total number of all home-sale transactions for the last 12 months.
Total Sales YoY Change 0.3%
12-Month sum Percentage increase or decrease in current 12 months of total sales over the prior 12 months of total sales
New Home Sales The total number of newly constructed residentail housing units sold during the month.
New Home Sales 0.9%
Median Price The median price for newly constructed residential housing units during the month.
Existing Home Sales The number of previously constucted homes that were sold to an unaffiliated third party. DOES NOT INCLUDE REO AND SHORT SALES.
REO Sales Number of bank owned properties that were sold to an unaffiliated third party.
REO Sales Share The number of REO Sales in a given month divided by total sales.
REO Price Discount The average price of a REO divided by the average price of an existing-home sale.
REO Pct The count of loans in REO as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the reporting period.
Short Sales The number of short sales. A short sale is a sale of real estate in which the sale proceeds fall short of the balance owed on the property's loan.
Short Sales Share The number of Short Sales in a given month divided by total sales.
Short Sale Price Discount The average price of a Short Sale divided by the average price of an existing-home sale.
Short Sale Pct The count of loans in Short Sale as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the month.
Distressed Sales Share The percentage of the total sales that were a distressed sale (REO or short sale).
Distressed Sales Share 0.4%
(sales 12-Month sum) The sum of the REO Sales 12-month sum and the Short Sales 12-month sum divided by the total sales 12-month sum.
HPI MoM Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a month ago.
HPI YoY Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a year ago.
HPI MoM Excluding Distressed Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a month ago.
HPI YoY Excluding Distressed Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a year ago.
HPI Percent Change 0.2%
from Peak Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series from the respective peak value in the index.
90 Days + DQ Pct The percentage of the overall loan count that are 90 or more days delinquent as of the reporting period. This percentage includes loans that are in foreclosure or REO.
Stock of 90+ Delinquencies YoY Chg Percent change year-over-year of the number of 90+ day delinquencies in the current month.
Foreclosure Pct The percentage of the overall loan count that is currently in foreclosure as of the reporting period.
Percent Change Stock of Foreclosures from Peak
Percent increase or decrease in the number of foreclosures from the respective peak number of foreclosures.
Pre-foreclosure Filings The number of mortgages where the lender has initiated foreclosure proceedings and it has been made known through public notice (NOD).
Completed Foreclosures A completed foreclosure occurs when a property is auctioned and results in either the purchase of the home at auction or the property is taken by the lender as part of their Real Estate Owned (REO) inventory.
Negative Equity Share The percentage of mortgages in negative equity. The denominator for the negative equity percent is based on the number of mortgages from the public record.
Negative Equity The number of mortgages in negative equity. Negative equity is calculated as the difference between the current value of the property and the origination value of the mortgage. If the mortgage debt is greater than the current value, the property is considered to be in a negative equity position. We estimate current UPB value, not origination value.
Months' Supply of Distressed Homes 0.4%
(total sales 12-Month avg) The months it would take to sell off all homes currently in distress of 90 days delinquency or greater based on the current sales pace.
Price/Income Ratio CoreLogic HPI™ divided by Nominal Personal Income provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and indexed to January 1976.
Conforming Prime Serious Delinquency Rate
The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are within the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
Jumbo Prime Serious Delinquency Rate
The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are larger than the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
15
Variable Definition
Total Sales The total number of all home-sale transactions during the month.
Total Sales 12-Month sum The total number of all home-sale transactions for the last 12 months.
Total Sales YoY Change 0.3%
12-Month sum Percentage increase or decrease in current 12 months of total sales over the prior 12 months of total sales
New Home Sales The total number of newly constructed residentail housing units sold during the month.
New Home Sales 0.9%
Median Price The median price for newly constructed residential housing units during the month.
Existing Home Sales The number of previously constucted homes that were sold to an unaffiliated third party. DOES NOT INCLUDE REO AND SHORT SALES.
REO Sales Number of bank owned properties that were sold to an unaffiliated third party.
REO Sales Share The number of REO Sales in a given month divided by total sales.
REO Price Discount The average price of a REO divided by the average price of an existing-home sale.
REO Pct The count of loans in REO as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the reporting period.
Short Sales The number of short sales. A short sale is a sale of real estate in which the sale proceeds fall short of the balance owed on the property's loan.
Short Sales Share The number of Short Sales in a given month divided by total sales.
Short Sale Price Discount The average price of a Short Sale divided by the average price of an existing-home sale.
Short Sale Pct The count of loans in Short Sale as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the month.
Distressed Sales Share The percentage of the total sales that were a distressed sale (REO or short sale).
Distressed Sales Share 0.4%
(sales 12-Month sum) The sum of the REO Sales 12-month sum and the Short Sales 12-month sum divided by the total sales 12-month sum.
HPI MoM Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a month ago.
HPI YoY Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a year ago.
HPI MoM Excluding Distressed Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a month ago.
HPI YoY Excluding Distressed Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a year ago.
HPI Percent Change 0.2%
from Peak Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series from the respective peak value in the index.
90 Days + DQ Pct The percentage of the overall loan count that are 90 or more days delinquent as of the reporting period. This percentage includes loans that are in foreclosure or REO.
Stock of 90+ Delinquencies YoY Chg Percent change year-over-year of the number of 90+ day delinquencies in the current month.
Foreclosure Pct The percentage of the overall loan count that is currently in foreclosure as of the reporting period.
Percent Change Stock of Foreclosures from Peak
Percent increase or decrease in the number of foreclosures from the respective peak number of foreclosures.
Pre-foreclosure Filings The number of mortgages where the lender has initiated foreclosure proceedings and it has been made known through public notice (NOD).
Completed Foreclosures A completed foreclosure occurs when a property is auctioned and results in either the purchase of the home at auction or the property is taken by the lender as part of their Real Estate Owned (REO) inventory.
Negative Equity Share The percentage of mortgages in negative equity. The denominator for the negative equity percent is based on the number of mortgages from the public record.
Negative Equity The number of mortgages in negative equity. Negative equity is calculated as the difference between the current value of the property and the origination value of the mortgage. If the mortgage debt is greater than the current value, the property is considered to be in a negative equity position. We estimate current UPB value, not origination value.
Months' Supply of Distressed Homes 0.4%
(total sales 12-Month avg) The months it would take to sell off all homes currently in distress of 90 days delinquency or greater based on the current sales pace.
Price/Income Ratio CoreLogic HPI™ divided by Nominal Personal Income provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and indexed to January 1976.
Conforming Prime Serious Delinquency Rate
The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are within the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
Jumbo Prime Serious Delinquency Rate
The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are larger than the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
Source: CoreLogicThe data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast . This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact CoreLogic at newsmedia@corelogic .com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner . This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources .
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