39
Ted Abernathy [email protected] The NC Economy Today & In the Future “The future is always here; it’s just not evenly distributed.” William Gibson
Ted Abernathy [email protected]
The NC Economy Today & In the Future
“The future is always here; it’s just not evenly distributed.”
William Gibson
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
YoY % Chg U.S.
North Carolina
September 2017
US: 1.2%
NC: 1.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
2North Carolina Payroll Employment Year over Year
Percentage Change
All States 1-Year Total Employment Percentage Change Sept 2016 to Sept 2017
1.5%
0.2%
1.3%
2.0%
1.7%1.6%
0.2%
0.6%
0.9%0.7%
1.9%
1.2%
2.1%
0.1%
1.0%0.9%
-0.4%
1.6%
0.7%
0.6%
2.4%
1.7%
1.4%
1.8%
0.6%
1.3%1.2%
1.5%
2.5%
1.3%
0.7%
1.0%1.0%
1.4%1.4%1.1%
1.1%
1.9%
1.1%
0.9%
1.4%
0.7%
1.5%
2.1%
2.5%
1.0%1.1%
2.2%
0.4%
1.2%
-1.1%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%A
lab
ama
Ala
ska
Ari
zon
a
Ark
ansa
s
Cal
ifo
rnia
Co
lora
do
Co
nn
ecti
cut
De
law
are
Dis
tric
t o
f C
olu
mb
ia
Flo
rid
a
Geo
rgia
Haw
aii
Idah
o
Illin
ois
Ind
ian
a
Iow
a
Kan
sas
Ke
ntu
cky
Lou
isia
na
Mai
ne
Mar
ylan
d
Mas
sach
use
tts
Mic
hig
an
Min
nes
ota
Mis
siss
ipp
i
Mis
sou
ri
Mo
nta
na
Neb
rask
a
Nev
ada
New
Ham
psh
ire
New
Je
rse
y
New
Mex
ico
New
Yo
rk
No
rth
Car
olin
a
No
rth
Dak
ota
Oh
io
Okl
aho
ma
Ore
gon
Pe
nn
sylv
ania
Rh
od
e Is
lan
d
Sou
th C
aro
lina
Sou
th D
ako
ta
Ten
nes
see
Texa
s
Uta
h
Ve
rmo
nt
Vir
gin
ia
Was
hin
gto
n
We
st V
irgi
nia
Wis
con
sin
Wyo
min
g
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Percent U.S.
North Carolina
USA &North Carolina Unemployment Rate
September 2017
US: 4.2%
NC: 4.1%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
4
9.6%
11.0%
18.1%
-3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 12.0% 17.0% 22.0%
West VirginiaWyoming
AlaskaLouisiana
New MexicoConnecticut
PennsylvaniaMaine
VermontMississippiOklahoma
ArkansasKansas
Rhode IslandAlabama
New JerseyVirginia
IllinoisIowa
MarylandWisconsin
MissouriSouth Dakota
New HampshireDistrict of Columbia
OhioKentuckyNebraskaMontana
MinnesotaIndiana
New YorkDelaware
HawaiiMassachusetts
U.S. TOTALNorth Dakota
MichiganTennessee
North CarolinaSouth Carolina
GeorgiaArizona
WashingtonIdahoTexas
OregonCalifornia
NevadaColorado
FloridaUtah
Top 14 states in the West or South
Percentage Change in Jobs 2011 –2016 By State
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Change in Personal Per Capita Income 2011-2016
9.4%
5.9%
0.8%
8.0%
9.2%
14.4%
13.6%
4.3%4.4%
7.7%
6.0%
6.9%
10.5%10.1%
11.7%
9.4%
7.3%7.0%
7.4%6.8%6.7%
4.2%
10.5%11.1%
9.5%
6.1%
7.5%
5.1%
3.7%
7.7%
10.3%
8.4%
4.7%
11.7%
7.9%
6.2%
8.4%
11.3%
12.9%
9.2%9.1%9.4%
0.9%
8.5%9.4%
13.3%
8.6%
5.9%
13.4%
3.1%
8.7%
4.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Ala
bam
a
Ala
ska
Ari
zon
a
Ark
ansa
s
Cal
ifo
rnia
Co
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Co
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ecti
cut
De
law
are
Dis
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olu
mb
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Flo
rid
a
Geo
rgia
Haw
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Idah
o
Illin
ois
Ind
ian
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Iow
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Kan
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Lou
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Mai
ne
Mar
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Mic
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Min
nes
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Mis
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ipp
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Mis
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Mo
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na
Neb
rask
a
Nev
ada
New
Ham
psh
ire
New
Je
rse
y
New
Mex
ico
New
Yo
rk
No
rth
Car
olin
a
No
rth
Dak
ota
Oh
io
Okl
aho
ma
Ore
gon
Pe
nn
sylv
ania
Rh
od
e Is
lan
d
Sou
th C
aro
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Sou
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ta
Ten
nes
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Texa
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Uta
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Ve
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nt
Vir
gin
ia
Was
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Change in Per Capita GDP 2011-2016
6.3%
2.9%
-9.4%
0.9%
3.5%
12.5%
7.1%
1.4%
-0.2%
-3.8%
4.4%
6.1%
3.9%3.5%
5.7%5.2%
8.2%
3.3%2.8%
-3.9%
3.0%2.2%
6.1%
9.1%
5.6%
2.3%
4.1%
2.1%
3.4%
-1.6%
6.8%
5.1%
2.9%
5.5%
2.5%
10.1%
7.6%
11.7%
-1.3%
8.8%
3.5%4.1%
0.2%
7.6%
11.3%
6.3%
1.9%
0.0%
8.2%
0.6%
5.3%
-8.1%-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Ala
bam
a
Ala
ska
Ari
zon
a
Ark
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s
Cal
ifo
rnia
Co
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Co
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ecti
cut
De
law
are
Dis
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olu
mb
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Flo
rid
a
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Haw
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Idah
o
Illin
ois
Ind
ian
a
Iow
a
Kan
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na
Mai
ne
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use
tts
Mic
hig
an
Min
nes
ota
Mis
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Mis
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Mo
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na
Neb
rask
a
Nev
ada
New
Ham
psh
ire
New
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rse
y
New
Mex
ico
New
Yo
rk
No
rth
Car
olin
a
No
rth
Dak
ota
Oh
io
Okl
aho
ma
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gon
Pe
nn
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ania
Rh
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lan
d
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Ten
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Top Factors for Companies Considering New Investment
(1) Availability of skilled labor(2) Highway accessibility(3) Labor costs(3) Proximity to major markets(3) State & local incentives(3) Available land(3) Tax exemptions(8) Energy availability and costs(9) Proximity to suppliers(10) Training programs/Technical schools(11) Availability buildings(12) Accessibility to a major airport
Source: Area Development 31th Annual Survey of Corporate Executives, March 2017
20121) Highway Accessibility 2) Labor Cost 3) Avail. Skilled Labor4) Corporate Tax Rate 5) Occupancy Costs 6) State/Local Incentives 7) Energy Avail./Cost 8) Tax Exemptions9) Proximity to Markets10) Low Union Profile
Transformations
People, Wealth and Jobs Continue to Concentrate
CherokeeClay
Graham
Macon
Swain
Jackson
Haywood
Madison
Buncombe
Henderson
Tran-
sylvania
Yancey
Avery
McDowell
Rutherford
Polk
Watauga
Caldwell
Burke
Cleveland
Ashe Alleghany
Wilkes
Alex-
ander
Catawba
Lincoln
Gaston
Surry
Yadkin
Iredell
Stokes
Forsyth
Davie
Rowan
Cabarrus
Union
Rockingham
Guilford
DavidsonRandolph
Stanly
Anson
Mont-
gomery Moore
Rich-
mond
Caswell Person
ChathamWake
Lee
Warren
Franklin
Harnett
Hoke
Scot-
land
Robeson Bladen
Columbus
Brunswick
Johnston
Northampton
Halifax
Nash
Wilson
Edgecombe
Wayne
Sampson
Duplin
Pender
New
Hanover
Onslow
Jones
Lenoir
Greene
Pitt
Hertford
Gates
Bertie
Wash-
ingtonMartin
BeaufortHyde
Tyrrell Dare
CravenPamlico
Carteret
10.2% and over increase5.1% to 10.1% increase0% to 5.1% increasepopulation decrease
NC Change in Population 2011 - 2016North Carolina Average 5.1%
Source: US Census Bureau
Population Growth More Concentrated
NC Metro % Non-Farm Employment GrowthSeptember 2016 - September 2017
0.8%1.0%
2.1%
2.7%
1.2%
-0.7%
0.9%
-1.4%
0.5%0.8% 0.9%
2.9%
-0.7%
2.3%
0.4%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Southern States 1-Year Professional & Business Services Employment Changes Sept 2016 to Sept 2017
2.6%3.3%3.2%
0.3%
4.3%
5.8%
-1.0%
4.9%
3.1%
-4.2%
5.3%
0.8%
2.0% 1.7%2.5%
1.9%
0.2%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Concentration of County Jobs in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Source: NC Dept of CommerceQCEW 1st quarter 2017
Cherokee
Clay
Graham
Macon
Swain
Jackson
Haywood
Madison
Buncombe
Henderson
Tran-
sylvania
Yancey
Avery
McDowell
Rutherford
Polk
Watauga
Caldwell
Burke
Cleveland
AsheAlleghany
Wilkes
Alex-
ander
Catawba
Lincoln
Gaston
Surry
Yadkin
Iredell
Stokes
Forsyth
Davie
Rowan
Cabarrus
Union
Rockingham
Guilford
DavidsonRandolph
Stanly
Anson
Mont-
gomery Moore
Rich-
mond
Caswell Person
ChathamWake
Lee
Warren
Franklin
Harnett
Hoke
Scot-
land
Robeson Bladen
Columbus
Brunswick
Johnston
Northampton
Halifax
Nash
Wilson
Edgecombe
Wayne
Sampson
Duplin
Pender
New
Hanover
Onslow
Jones
Lenoir
Greene
Pitt
Hertford
Gates
Bertie
Wash-
ingtonMartin
BeaufortHyde
Tyrrell Dare
CravenPamlico
Carteret
Growth above state average of 14.8%
Growing below state average of 14.8%
Losing Labor Force
PROJECTED CHANGE IN LABOR FORCE AGE POPULATIONAges 25 – 64 2016 - 2036
North Carolina state average 14.8%
Source: NC Office of State Budget and Management
Strong Workforce Growth Across the Country
Sources: Decennial Census Counts, *Weldon Cooper Center National Population Projections
Workforce Growth Concentrates
Sources: Decennial Census Counts, *Weldon Cooper Center National Population Projections
Technological Is Reinventing Every Business
North Carolina Manufacturing Jobs and Manufacturing GDP Growth1997 – 2016 (normalized as percent of levels in 1997)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEWUS Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP
100.0%
157.6%
57.6%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NC MANUFACTURING GDP NC MANUFACTURING JOBS
Technology is rapidly replacing jobs that
are hard to fill
Agriculture Home Health
Food Prep
Advanced Industries for NC’s Future
Advanced Industries for NC’s Future
50 Industries 383,572 jobs in North
Carolina11% Growth in the past 3
years
Largest Advanced Industries in North Carolina
1. Computer Systems Design (51,910)2. Management Scientific/Technical (42,936)3. Architectural/Engineering (33,404)4. Scientific R&D (21,008)5. Pharma/Medicine Manf (20,656)6. Motor Vehicle Parts Manf (17,337)7. Software Publishing (13,139)8. Data Processing/Hosting (13,139)9. Medical/Diagnostic Labs (12,605)10. Navigat/Measuring Instrument Manf (11,900)11. Power Generation/Transmission (10,784)12. Computer/Peripheral Manf (10,126)
From 2013-2016 these 12
industries added 35,898 net new
jobs
Other Fastest growing industries include;• Aerospace Manf• Ship & Boat
Building• Machinery Manf
Annual US Employment Growth By Sector2016-2026
1.2%
-0.6%
0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.6%
1.0%
1.3%
1.9%
0.8%
-0.2%
0.4%
0.0%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Available, Skilled Labor is the Place Differentiator – Without it, You Lose
USA Workforce Growth Slows
Sources: Decennial Census Counts, *Weldon Cooper Center National Population Projections
Decomposition of Real GDP
Note: Productivity is calculated as real GDP per employee, from the Household Survey.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0.0
1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2006 2010 2014
Employment
Productivity
GDP
10-Year Annual Growth Rates
6Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
USA Typical Entry-Level Education Requirement as Percent of Total Employment – May 2016
27.7%
35.8%
2.6%
6.0%
2.4%
21.3%
1.7%
2.5%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
No formal educational credential
High School diploma or equivalent
Some college, no degree
Postsecondary nondegree award
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral or professional degree
Percent of Total Employment
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, September, 2017“Employment Trends by Typical Entry-level Education Requirements”
27.9% total 2 and 4 year degrees, plus an additional 8.6% post high school.
Typical Entry-Level Education RequirementChange in Total Employment by Sector – May 2010 – May 2016
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, September, 2017“Employment Trends by Typical Entry-level Education Requirements”
1,776,570
608,980
665,730
817,560
671,280
631,600
493,580
1,233,350
1,118,690
-500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
Federal, state, and local government
Other services, except public administration
Accommodation and food services
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Healthcare and social assistance
Educational services
Administrative and waste services
Management of companies and enterprises
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Real estate and rental and leasing
Finance and insurance
Information
Transportation and warehousing
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Utilities
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
post secondary education high school diploma or equivalent no formal education
Education Requirements For New Jobs 2016-2026
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment Growth 2004-2014 By Type of Job
1.6%
0.1%
1.8%
-1.1%-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
CognitiveNonroutine
CognitiveRoutine
ManualNonroutine
Manual Routine
Source: St Louis Federal Reserve Bank
What Skills Do You Need To Be Successful in a Rapidly Changing World?
Workforce Complexity Paralysis
Imagine a business trying to engage the
system
Prepare For Accelerating Change Population growth will slow, diversify
and concentrate in fewer places Technology will change every industry
(faster, smaller, personalized, cheaper, mobile, integrated)
People will need more skills to compete, but education will begin to morph due to technology (quantifiable credentials)
The middle of every industry in under threat
Competition more intense- Winners & Losers- Talent and Tech
Follow on twitter @tedabernathy
LinkedIn Ted Abernathy
“ Leadership and learning are indispensable to each other.”John F. Kennedy
www.econleadership.com
