The Need for Electrical Engineers

Workshop on Reforming Electric Energy Systems Curriculums February 4, 2010

Clark W. Gellings Fellow

2© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.CWG/9497P

Aging Workforce

3© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.CWG/9497P

CO2 Reductions … Technical Potential*

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S

. Ele

ctric

Sec

tor C

O2 E

mis

sion

s(m

illion

met

ric to

ns)

*Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible.

Technology EIA AEO Base Case EPRI Prism Target

Efficiency Load Growth ~ +0.95%/yr ~400 TWh Additional Reduction

T&D Efficiency None 20% Reduction in T&D Losses by 2030

Renewables 60 GWe by 2030 135 GWe by 2030

Nuclear 12.5 GWe New Build by 2030 No Retirements; 64 GWe New Build by 2030

Fossil Efficiency

40% New Coal, 54% New NGCCs by 2030

+3% Efficiency for 75 GWe Existing Fleet 49% New Coal; 70% New NGCCs by 2030

CCS None90% Capture for All New Coal + NGCC After 2020

Retrofits for 60 GWe Existing Fleet

Electric Transportation None

PHEVs by 2010; 40% New Vehicle Share by 20253x Current Non-Road Use by 2030

Electro- technologies None Replace ~4.5% Direct Fossil Use by 2030

EIA Base Case 2009

4© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.CWG/9497P

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

EIAEPRI

RPSsUCS

EFCASES

NREL

ACORE

Renewable Generation Targets (new GW)

60 by

2030

100 b

y 203

0

165 b

y 203

0

180 b

y 202

0

225 b

y 202

5

270 b

y 203

0

300 b

y 202

0

635 b

y 202

5

GW

5© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.CWG/9497P

U.S. Jobs Created by Renewable Energy in 2030 (Total Jobs Created – Selected Technologies)

Source: Management Information Services, Inc. and American Solar Energy Society, 2008

6© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.CWG/9497P

Wind Technology Development

Towers

Grid Interfaces & Integration

Rotors & Blades Drive Train

Operations & Maintenance

Off-Shore Systems

7© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.CWG/9497P

Solar Technology Development

Photovoltaic Cells

Thermal Storage

Central -

Station

Hybrid Systems

Deployment & Integration

8© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.CWG/9497P

Integration Technology Development

Transmission

Planning Tools

800 MW increase in 45 minutes

Gradient: 1067 MW/h

Storage

Demand Response

Could you predict the energy production for this wind park either day-ahead or 5 hours in advance?

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24Hour

Meg

awat

ts

Average

Each Day is a different color.

Day 29

Day 5Day 26

Day 9

Could you predict the energy production for this wind park either day-ahead or 5 hours in advance?

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24Hour

Meg

awat

ts

Average

Each Day is a different color.

Day 29

Day 5Day 26

Day 9

Forecasting

9© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.CWG/9497P

Hyper-Efficient Technologies

Heat Pump Water Heaters

Variable Refrigerant Flow Air Conditioning

Ductless Residential Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners

Hyper-Efficient Residential Appliances

LED Street and Area Lighting

10© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.CWG/9497P

Gateway to the Electromagnetic Spectrum