The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Joost Van Roost, ExxonMobil Benelux Deloitte Dutch Oil & Gas Conference Rotterdam, June 25, 2013 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Transcript
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Joost Van Roost, ExxonMobil Benelux
Deloitte Dutch Oil & Gas Conference
Rotterdam, June 25, 2013
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes
in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission
of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development
100 countries
15 demand
sectors
20 fuel
types
technology & policy
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Energy Demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
1.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2015 2040
Energy Saved
~500
Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2015 2040
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1990 2015 2040
Global Progress Drives Demand
Billion
Population GDP
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.8%
OECD
Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ElectricityGeneration
Industrial Transportation Res/Comm
Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
Electricity
Demand
Energy Demand by Sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ElectricityGeneration
Industrial Transportation Res/Comm
Quadrillion BTUs
2010
2025
2040
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
Demand by Region
MBDOE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
AP NA Europe LA ME ROW
‘40
‘25
‘10
0
15
30
45
60
75
2000 2020 2040
Sector Demand
MBDOE
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Aviation
Transportation Demand
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
OtherOECD
China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
PHV/EV
Full Hybrid
CNG
LPG
Diesel Conv
Mogas Conv
2040
Millions of Vehicles
Powertrain Technology
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
OtherOECD
China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
2025
Millions of Vehicles
Powertrain Technology
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
OtherOECD
China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
2010
Millions of Vehicles
Powertrain Technology
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Europe Transportation Demand
Transportation
MBDOE
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet
Million Cars
Light Duty
Aviation
Heavy Duty
Marine
Conv. Diesel
Hybrid
PHV/EV
CNG/LPG
Rail
Conv. Gasoline
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Electricity generation
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 20400
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 2040
Electricity Demand by Region
Non OECD
Thousand TWh
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Russia/Caspian
Other Non OECD
China
Africa
India
Thousand TWh
North America
Europe OECD
Other OECD
OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
Quadrillion BTUs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2020 2040
Oil
Nuclear
Gas
Renewables
Coal
Electricity Generation
Quadrillion BTUs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2020 2040
OECD
Non OECD
Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
-30
0
30
60
90
120
Non OECD OECD
Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Oil
Nuclear
Gas
Renewables
Coal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Europe Electricity Demand
Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption
Quadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Electricity Demand
Thousand Terawatt Hour
Heavy Industry
Other Industry
Residential
Commercial
Transportation Wind & Solar
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
4
8
12
16
20
Coal Gas Nuclear OnshoreWind*
Solar PVUtility*
Baseload, Startup 2030
2012 Eurocents/kWh
*Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission
$60/ton of CO2
$0/ton
Economic Choices for Europe Electricity
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Reliability
Cost
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
'10 '20 '30 '40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
'10 '20 '30 '40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
'10 '20 '30 '40
Solar
Geothermal
Biomass/Other
Wind
Hydro
Renewables Gain Share
United States
Percent of TWh
Europe
Percent of TWh
Asia Pacific
Percent of TWh
*Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
Quadrillion BTUs
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind /Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 - 2040
1.0%
2040
2010
0.8%
1.7%
-0.1%
2.4% 0.4%
5.8% 1.8%
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2020 2040
CO2 Emissions Plateau
Billion Tons
By Region
0
5
10
15
20
China India U.S. Europe
Tons per Person Emissions Per Capita
‘10
‘25
‘40
OECD
Rest of Non OECD
India
China
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Europe Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity
Generation
Res/Comm
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Europe Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
By Fuel
Billion Tons
Liquids
Gas
Coal
By Sector
Billion Tons
Transportation
Electricity
Generation
Industrial
Res/Comm
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Supply
Liquids Supply
MBDOE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Supply by Type
Other Liquids
Biofuels
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2040
Resource*
TBO
Conventional
Crude & Condensate
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Remaining
Resource
Cumulative
Production
* Source: IEA ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2025 2040
North America Gas Supply
Local
Unconventional
LNG
Local
Conventional
BCFD
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2025 2040
North America Conventional
North America
Unconventional
Global Gas Supply
Rest of World
Conventional
Rest of World
Unconventional
BCFD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Global Gas Resource
Over 200 years coverage at
current demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
World
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
4.3
North America
2.5
Latin America
1.6
Europe
OECD
2.6
Africa
4.9
Middle East
6.2
Russia/
Caspian*
4.5
Asia Pacific
Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
BCFD
Europe Asia Pacific
BCFD
Gas Demand Grows and Supply Diversifies
Local Production
Unconventional
LNG
Conventional
BCFD
North America
Pipeline
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Hydraulic Fracturing
Shale Gas: Demonstrate Responsibility
Aquifers
Demonstrate
Responsibility
Water
Ground
Local Area
Shale Gas Production Process
Shale Source: Total
Uses two established technologies:
horizontal drilling (1960s+) and hydraulic
fracturing (1950s+)
• Both widely used in Europe for decades
Shale reservoirs are generally 2,000m to
4,000m below surface
Water, sand and additives are pumped at
pressure into the shale, opening up hairline
fractures that allow gas to flow
Thousands of meters of impermeable rock
separate fractures from drinking water
aquifers
Fractures cannot propagate to the
surface
Aquifer Protection
Shale
Multiple layers of steel
casing and cement
Source: Total
• No different from a conventional oil or gas
well, or geothermal well
Source: OGP
Steel casings
5cm cement
• Aquifers protected by several layers of steel
and impermeable cement
Opportunities: Economic Benefits
JLNG =
Japan Liquefied Natural Gas
Import Price
NBP = National Balancing Point
virtual trading location UK
Henry Hub =
virtual trading location USA (natural gas pipeline system in Erath,
Louisiana )
JAPAN
EUROPE
US
Sources: Platts, ICIS ESGM Heren Report and Waterbourne
Liquefied Natural Gas
Adriatic LNG Terminal
LNG Supply
Source: IHS CERA Disclaimer: No portion of this slide may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written CERA consent
Europe LNG Supply Potential
Atlantic Supply
ME Supply
Pacific Supply
Net LNG Available to Europe
170 BCM 120 BCM
50 BCM
Significant volumes of LNG available to Europe 2015 – 2030
50 BCM 2015 (~10% Demand) to 170 BCM in 2030 (~ 25% Demand)
Source: WoodMackenize Research (1H 2012 – Gas & Power Tool)
