The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Todd Onderdonk
September 2013
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes
in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission
of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Population Trends Impact Energy Use
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
World Population
Billions of people
0
25
50
75
100
125
2000 2020 2040
Energy Demand
Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand
GDP
Trillion 2005$
China
United States
2010-2040 AAGR %
5.6%
2.3%
1.8% Other
OECD
Other
Non
OECD
3.9% World
2.8%
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
2000 2020 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
2010-2040 AAGR %
World
1.0%
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
2000 2020 2040
Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
Energy
Saved
~500
2010-2040 AAGR %
World
1.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2020 2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2020 2040
Tale of Two Worlds
Non OECD
Quadrillion BTUs
Biomass
Other Renewables
Oil
Nuclear
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
Coal
Gas
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
United States Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity
Generation
Res/Comm
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Supply
Remaining Oil Resource Crude and Condensate (BBO)
North America
Europe
~100
Asia Pacific
~150
Latin America Africa
Russia/Caspian
~1,000
Middle East
~650
~200
~1,100
~1,100
Global
~4,300
Source: IEA
0
3
6
9
12
15
2000 2020 2040
0
3
6
9
12
15
2000 2020 20400
3
6
9
12
15
2000 2020 2040
Technology Driven Supplies Expand Globally
MBDOE
Deepwater by Region NGL by Region
MBDOE
North America
Russia-Caspian/
Asia Pacific
Africa
Latin America
Europe
North America
Africa
Latin America
Russia/Caspian/
Asia Pacific
Europe
Middle East
Unconventional Oil by Region
MBDOE
North America
Other
Latin America
Middle East
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2020 2040
Liquids Supply
MBDOE
Supply by Type
Other Liquids
Biofuels
0
10
20
30
40
NA LA R/C AP Eur. Africa ME
2040 Liquids Supply by Region
MBDOE
2010
Conventional
Crude & Condensate
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
9
Net Imports
Liquids
Demand
Other Petroleum
North America Liquids Supply Grows
Biofuels
8
3
North America Liquids Supply and Demand
MBDOE
Crude & Condensate
Canadian Oil Sands
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
World
Remaining Global Gas Resource
Over 200 years coverage at
current demand
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
4.0
North America
2.8
Latin America
1.6
Europe
OECD
3.1
Africa
4.8
Middle East
6.6
Russia/
Caspian*
4.8
Asia Pacific
Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2025 2040
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts
North America Gas Supply
Local
Unconventional
LNG
Local
Conventional
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2025 2040
BCFD
North America Conventional
North America
Unconventional
Global Gas Supply
Rest of World
Conventional
Rest of World
Unconventional
BCFD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2025 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2025 2040
North America Energy Balance
Oil
Regional Supply
Gas
Quadrillion BTUs
Net Imports
Net Exports
Regional Supply
Net Exports
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
2010 2025 2040
Regional Supply
Total Energy Balance Net Exports
Net Imports
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Regional Energy Demand Trends Evolve
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Other AP
China
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
Percent of World Total
By Region
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Conclusions
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy