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The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September 2013 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
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Page 1: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Todd Onderdonk

September 2013

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes

in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future

Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and

analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission

of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Page 2: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

Population Trends Impact Energy Use

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

World Population

Billions of people

Page 3: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

0

25

50

75

100

125

2000 2020 2040

Energy Demand

Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand

GDP

Trillion 2005$

China

United States

2010-2040 AAGR %

5.6%

2.3%

1.8% Other

OECD

Other

Non

OECD

3.9% World

2.8%

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

2000 2020 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

2010-2040 AAGR %

World

1.0%

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

2000 2020 2040

Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

Energy

Saved

~500

2010-2040 AAGR %

World

1.0%

Page 4: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2020 2040

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2020 2040

Tale of Two Worlds

Non OECD

Quadrillion BTUs

Biomass

Other Renewables

Oil

Nuclear

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

Coal

Gas

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

Page 5: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

United States Energy Demand and Supply

By Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Transportation

Industrial

Electricity

Generation

Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Other Renewables

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

Page 6: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

Supply

Page 7: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

Remaining Oil Resource Crude and Condensate (BBO)

North America

Europe

~100

Asia Pacific

~150

Latin America Africa

Russia/Caspian

~1,000

Middle East

~650

~200

~1,100

~1,100

Global

~4,300

Source: IEA

Page 8: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

0

3

6

9

12

15

2000 2020 2040

0

3

6

9

12

15

2000 2020 20400

3

6

9

12

15

2000 2020 2040

Technology Driven Supplies Expand Globally

MBDOE

Deepwater by Region NGL by Region

MBDOE

North America

Russia-Caspian/

Asia Pacific

Africa

Latin America

Europe

North America

Africa

Latin America

Russia/Caspian/

Asia Pacific

Europe

Middle East

Unconventional Oil by Region

MBDOE

North America

Other

Latin America

Middle East

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

Page 9: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2020 2040

Liquids Supply

MBDOE

Supply by Type

Other Liquids

Biofuels

0

10

20

30

40

NA LA R/C AP Eur. Africa ME

2040 Liquids Supply by Region

MBDOE

2010

Conventional

Crude & Condensate

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

Page 10: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

9

Net Imports

Liquids

Demand

Other Petroleum

North America Liquids Supply Grows

Biofuels

8

3

North America Liquids Supply and Demand

MBDOE

Crude & Condensate

Canadian Oil Sands

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

Page 11: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

World

Remaining Global Gas Resource

Over 200 years coverage at

current demand

1000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

4.0

North America

2.8

Latin America

1.6

Europe

OECD

3.1

Africa

4.8

Middle East

6.6

Russia/

Caspian*

4.8

Asia Pacific

Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD

Page 12: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2025 2040

Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts

North America Gas Supply

Local

Unconventional

LNG

Local

Conventional

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2025 2040

BCFD

North America Conventional

North America

Unconventional

Global Gas Supply

Rest of World

Conventional

Rest of World

Unconventional

BCFD

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

Page 13: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2025 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2025 2040

North America Energy Balance

Oil

Regional Supply

Gas

Quadrillion BTUs

Net Imports

Net Exports

Regional Supply

Net Exports

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

0

25

50

75

100

125

2010 2025 2040

Regional Supply

Total Energy Balance Net Exports

Net Imports

Page 14: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Regional Energy Demand Trends Evolve

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

Other AP

China

Russia/Caspian

Europe

North America

Percent of World Total

By Region

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

Page 15: The Outlook for Energy - annualmeeting.naseo.organnualmeeting.naseo.org/Data/Sites/2/presentations/Onderdonk.pdf · The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk September

Conclusions

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy


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