The Population of the United States in 1920Source: The Scientific Monthly, Vol. 11, No. 5 (Nov., 1920), pp. 474-476Published by: American Association for the Advancement of ScienceStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/6425 .

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474 THE SCIENTIFIC MONTHLY

THE PROGRESS OF SCIENCE

THE POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES IN 1920

THE Bureau of the Census has now made public the population. of continental United States and of the separate states. According to the enumeration of the fourteenth cen- sus made this year, the population was 105,683,108, an increase of 13,- 710,842. or 14.9 per cent.. since 1910. In 1910 the population of the outly- ing possessions, Alaska, Hawaii and Porto Rico, including those abroad on military and naval service, was 1,429,885. The results of the census for these possessions are not yet known and there are no correct figures for the Philippines. It is, however, estimated that the total population of the United States and its possessions is in the neighbor- hood of one hundred and eighteen million.

The growth of the country's popu- lation, exclusive of the outlying pos- sessions, is set forth in this table:

Cenisus year. Population. Increase. P. C. 1920 . 105,683,108 13,710,842 14.9 1910 ...... 91,972,266 15,9177,861 21.0 1900 ...... 75,994,575 13,046,861 20.7 1890 ...... 62,947,714 12,791,931 25.5 1880 ...... 50,155,783 11,597,412 30.1 1870. 38,558,371 7,115,050 22.6 1860 . 311,443,321 8,251,445 35.6 1850 ...... 23,191,876 6,122,423 35.9 1840 ...... 17,069,,453 4,203,433 32.7 1830 ... ... 12,866,020 3,227,567 33.5 1820 ...... 9.,638,453 2,398,572 33.1 1810 . 7,239,881 1,9131,398 36.4 1 1800. 5,308,483 1,379,269 35.1 1790 ...... 3,929,214

The fact that the increase in popu- lation was more than two million less in the last decade than in the one preceding is due to war condi- tions and especially to the cessation of immigration and the lack of the children that would have been born

to immigrants. The actual fatal casualties of the war are a minor factor, perhaps not more than one tenth of the deaths from the epi- demic of influenza, but a decreased birth rate in the native population due to war conditions may be as im- portant as the failure of immi- gration.

The curves showing the increase in population in the Uiiited States seems to predict a continually in- creasing increment of growth. In- deed, Dr. H. S. Pritchett, then presi- dent of the Massachusetts Institute Or Technology, fitted a parabolic curve to the data, and in an article published in THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY in 1900, predicted that the population of the country would be 114,416,000 in 1920, and over a bil- lion a century hence. In a recent article in the Proceedings of the Na- tional Academy of Sciences Pearl and Reed point out that other curves fit the figures equally well, and are more nearly in accord with reason- able expectation. They propose a curve taking into account the food supply in a limited area, according to which the period of most rapid growth ended in 1914, and the maxi- mum population of the country will be about two hundred million.

There seems, however, to be no reason why the increase in popula- tion should follow a course that can be represented by any mathematical formula. The rate of increase in the United States has been largely due to immigration, in Russia to the large birth rate of an agricultural population with a decreasing death rate, in Germany to developments that supported an industrial popula- tion by commerce. As shown on the diagram, the curves for the three

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THE PROGRESS OF SCIENCE 475

YEAR 1800 1810 1820 *830 1840 1850 1880 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910

140 = = 4== = 1 4 40

~~ ~ _ _I ___ ___

___ __ "4

_30 j30 INCREASE Of POPULATION IN THE UNITED _ f

STATES AND THE PRINCIPAL COUNTRIES 120 OF EUROPE: 1800-1910 20

81 1 110

I GO f o

90 . < 1 /90

z z 4 u f_ _ _ _ 'z I- 810 f 0

I _ _ _ _ _ _ I

U. 700

o Jc 700/ X

0 e

60 0o

40 e- _ - __40

380 80 8 0 0

20 i<. 0 : z .20

YEAR 0

_ ,R A I

OF I O T U STTE I C

INCREASB OF POPULATION Or, THE lTA'-ITED STA&TES A-ND CTOUNTRIES OF' EUROPE

nations follow a somewhat similar course of increasing increments of population that can be represented by a parabolic equation. The catas- trophe of war has altered the course of the curves to an extent unknown except in the United States.

But apart from war, pestilence and famine, there are new causes altering the situation. Two of domi- nating importance have been the ap- plications of science to agriculture, industry and commerce, enabling the civilized nations to support a popu-

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476 THE SCIENTIFIC MONTHLY

PER CENT OF INCREASE IN TOTAL POPULATION, BY STATES: 1900-1910

NAK

Lesn than 10 per cent. IO to 20percent. 20 to 30 per cent.

I~30 to 50Oper cent. 50 per cent and over.

The heavy lines (-) show geographie divisions.

INCREASE OP POPULATION BY STATES. POPULATION PER SIQUARE MILE.

lation perhaps four times as great as would otherwise have been possi- ble, and the voluntary limitation of births. The former of these is re- sponsible for the curves of popula- tion since 1790. The latter will have an effect during the present century

that no equation based on the past can predict.

THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION

THE accompanying diagrams show the increase in population by states

POPULATION PER SQUARE MILE, BY STATES: 1910

'aIIMi~III

0a J4IIfi IN s

ARIZ. I

NUMBE51R OF INHIABITANTS. PER SQUARE MILE.

EJLess than 2 2 to B 8 to IS

~48 to 90 90 and oeer.

The hoeay tinea (-) show geographic divliions.

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