The Prattle Case Study Book - Microsoft...

The Prattle Case Study Book

Contents

Trading

Real-Time Trading the March FOMC Meeting

Macro Signals & Equity Investing

Forecasting

2013 vs. 2015

Forecasting Policy with Sentiment Data

Forecasting the BOE’s Hold

Predicting Turkey’s Cut

Forecasting the Financial Crisis

Trading

Derek Tang / Real-Time Trading the March FOMC Meeting

Evan Schnidman / 636.498.1959 prattle.coBill MacMillan / 768.345.0978

Case Study

• A significant portion of the price movement caused by FOMC statements happens within the first minute after release; the market reaction to March 2016’s FOMC statement is an excellent example; the 10-Year Bond yield during and after the release is pictured above

• Prattle’s quantitative analyses of these communications are available in real-time

• Using Prattle data, trades can be executed with full knowledge of the sentiment of these communications within milliseconds, so users can take advantage of this critical time window

• Access to the Prattle data ensures traders have complete information about both Fed policy and Fed sentiment before their competitors

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13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00

Prepared Speech

Q&A

Market Close

50% of the Day’s Price Movement (Post-Release) Happens in the Minute After Release

Prattle Score Released: -0.98 (Dovish)

10-Year Bond

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Low-Net Variable-Net Directional BMK Neutral BMK

Low-Net & Variable-NetUsed Prattle Data with Different Limitations

Neutral & Directional Benchmark Used Standard Quant Strategies with Different Limitations

Alex Von York / Macro Signals & Equity Investing


Case Study

• Prattle scores were used to test the use of Macro signals for equity investing at the sector and security level using a “Dynamic Alpha” trading framework

• Two versions of the Prattle long-short equity strategy were tested: “Low-Net” and “ Variable-Net”

• The results were benchmarked against two sets of standard, long-short equity strategies: a “Neutral Benchmark” and a “Directional Benchmark”

• Both strategies based on Prattle data strongly outperformed the benchmarks, generating higher annualized returns (5.32% & 7.05% vs. 2.04% & 2.6%), better Sharpe Ratios (2.7 & 3.4 vs. 0.7 & 0.3), and lower annualized volatility (1.71% & 2.08% vs. 2.86% & 8.54%)

• Prattle strategies also spent much less time in drawdown: 23.1% & 19.4%. vs. 69.4% & 81.5%

Forecasting

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Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan

2013 Fed Index2015 Fed Index

In 2013 and 2015, Analysts Forecast September Tightening

Prattle Correctly Forecast December Tightening;Sentiment Near Previous Highs

In Both Years,Prattle Correctly Forecast No SeptemberTightening; Sentiment Below Previous Highs

In May of 2013,FOMC Discusses Tapering

In Early 2015,FOMC Discusses Hike

Evan Schnidman / 2013 vs. 2015


Case Study

• In both 2013 and 2015, market analysts predicted that the Fed would initiate tightening policy in September of each of those years

• Months before the decisions took place, Prattle accurately projected that tapering would not commence in September 2013 and that rates would not be hiked in September 2015 based on sentiment trends

• Prattle saw that sentiment in each September simply had not reached levels seen earlier in each year, when, both years, contractionary policy was suggested

• In addition, Prattle accurately predicted a December 2015 rate hike based on parallels to 2013 Fed sentiment and the corresponding policy outcomes

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May 03 00:00 May 03 06:00 May 03 12:00 May 03 18:00

Prattle ScoreReleased:-1.96 (Dovish)

AUD PlummetsDue to Rate Cut

After Brief Rebound, AUD Steadily Descends

AUD ReachesLow Point atMarket Close

StatementRelease

AUD/USD

Evan Schnidman / Forecasting Policy with Sentiment Data


Case Study

• The policy decisions and tone conveyed in central bank communications have an immediate impact on the markets; this was exemplified by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut on May 3, 2016, which caused the AUD to plummet as pictured above

• Prattle data was used to effectively forecast the RBA’s monetary policy decision and the corresponding market reaction, allowing traders with access to this data to optimally position themselves

• The majority of price movement happened within 15 minutes of the statement release, meaning that traders needed to immediately react; Prattle’s real-time assessment of the statement made this possible

Evan Schnidman / Forecasting the BOE’s Hold


Case Study

• As Prattle expected, the Bank of England (BOE) decided to hold rates at their May, 2016 Monetary Policy meeting

• Many market commentators were expecting a rate cut due to Brexit uncertainty

• Because the BOE was trending hawkish—not dovish—heading into the meeting, Prattle was confident the bank would hold rates

• Prattle’s scores allowed clients to cut through the rate cut rumors and position themselves optimally for the ensuing market reaction

Feb Mar Apr May

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BOE Index

The BOE Was Hawkish Heading Into the MayMeeting; Prattle Forecast a Rate Hold

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Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Liquidity Stablization Measures

Turalay Kenc’s Remarks

Sentiment Falls Sharply

Minutes Suggest Rate Cut

TUR Index

Alexander Booth / Predicting Turkey’s Cut


Case Study

• Prattle’s sentiment indicated the Central Bank of Turkey was trending dovish and that easing policy was possible; this conclusion was based on our data and the progress the bank’s recent policies had made

• Major market voices like Bloomberg believed the bank would stay neutral and hold rates

• The minutes from the bank’s last policy meeting asserted that if the policies implemented in August were working, then a rate cut would be on the table; several important speeches leading up to the cut indicated that such progress had been made

• Prattle detected the trend and scored each relevant communication leading up to the meeting as dovish

• As sentiment continued to tank leading up to the meeting, Prattle expected a rate cut; markets experts did not; Turkey cut rates by 25 basis points

Evan Schnidman / Forecasting the Financial Crisis


Case Study

• Central bankers are adept at forecasting economic downturns; Prattle transforms this expertise into tradable signals to help users minimize downside risk

• Sentiment from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Bank of Canada all declined at least one year ahead of the financial crisis

• If investors had access to Prattle’s data, they would not have been blindsided by the financial crisis and could have positioned themselves optimally

• Helping users anticipate major economic events, Prattle’s data gives instant, actionable insight into almost every part of the global economy

Collapse of Lehman Brothers

Central Bank Sentiment Downturn Begins

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